The Sheet - Italian Serie A - Feb 24th/25th

The Italian sheet continues to pick a lot of home winners - although nothing for the two games being played on Saturday.

LIKELY WINNERS
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On Sunday we have five likely home winners :

Milan_AC vs Sampdoria
Udinese vs Parma
Livorno vs Ascoli
Fiorentina vs Empoli
Roma_AS vs Reggina

All of them are rated between 92% to 120% of fair value suggesting that they're reasonable bets to consider but we will still have tob check out team news and such like.

VALUE BETS
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Betting value on Italian football is much harder to find - as my statistics on the last three seasons show that blind betting (taking level stakes on every match) would have lost -13% on home sides and -18% on away sides.

These numbers reflect the fact that the betting markets on Italian football are far less competitive when compared to the English league ... and you need a bigger margin.

There are two value bets on offer :
Fiorentina to beat Empoli @ 1.60 at Canbet
Chievo to beat Torino @ 2.20 at Eurobet.

I'll ignore the 10.00 (9/1) being offered at Betfred for Catania to beat Inter Milan even though it is far above the rest of the market - as at 13% it's too much of an outsider for me ... (although the draw at 4.50 might be worth a sneaky wager).

Good luck with your punts.

Stumble It!