MLB Baseball
2012-05-01 - Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
Baseball : North America : MLB
Tuesday, May 1st, 2012, 8:40PM US
(1:40AM GMT)
PREVIEW
The LA Dodgers are 16-7 overall, including a 6-5 mark when on the road, while Colorado are 11-11 now with a 7-6 record at home. On paper there is a pitching mismatch, which is making me wonder whether the generous price on the Dodgers to win is a trap of sorts. Looks too obvious, but I'll take a closer look.
The Dodgers are going to go with Ted Lilly, who is 2-0 with a fantastic 0.90ERA in 3 starts. So that is now just 3 runs given up in 20 innings of work. What has helped that is the fact the teams he has pitched against have struggled against southpaws. Well, Colorado have struggled against lefties this season. I don't see a reason why they should suddenly score a bunch, and yet the total has been set at 9.5!
Lilly has done well over his career against the Colorado Rockies, going 8-2. Last year he went 3-0 against the Rockies with a 2.66ERA.
The Rockies will counter with Jhoulys Chacin, who is 0-2 with a 5.85ERA thanks to a shaky start. In his last match, he was hit for 5 runs on 8 hits in just 5 innings, and Colorado lost 5-1 to Pittsburgh. However, he has a 2.39ERA over 10 career starts against the Dodgers, so again, I wonder why the total is so high. It must be because of his numbers this season. Also, Colorado are giving up, on average 5.77 through their 13 home games.
The Rockies won 6-2 yesterday against the Dodgers, and that means we get LA playing in a great bounceback spot as they try to salvage the series. Somehow Colorado kept Matt Kemp fairly quiet yesterday, allowing 1 homer but getting him out when he could have well hit a 4-run homer in the 6th. Still, he is the leading homerun hitter in MLB with 12 this season and 25RBIs and his .417 batting average means we should make sure we watch when he is up at bat.
BETTING VERDICT
Looks a tricky one but I'll bite. I'll take the LA Dodgers to win.
The Pick :
Los Angeles Dodgers
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take the LA Dodgers to win @ 1.95 (Pinnacle)
