The Gooners Guide to Gambling Blog

Friday, May 09, 2008

Blatter Bigotry blasted as EU votes against foreign quotas

The European parliament dealt a blow to the misguided rants of Fifa president Sepp Blatter who planned plans to curb the number of "foreigners" at clubs.

MEPs overwhelmingly rejected by 518 votes to 49 Blatter's "6+5 rule", which tried to restrict a club to no more than five foreign players to start a match.

The European parliment resolution said "The parliament calls on the member states and sports associations not to introduce new rules that create direct discrimination based on nationality, such as Fifa's 6+5".

"It calls on the Commission to recognise the legality of measures favouring the promotion of players who have come through training schemes, such as a minimum number of locally trained players, irrespective of their nationality."

Ivo Belet, the Belgian MEP and author of the parliament's report on the future of professional football, told the assembly: "Unfortunately the 6+5 rule is not compatible with the free movement of persons in the EU. The European Treaty is very clear on this point - discrimination on the basis of nationality is not allowed and this also counts for football."

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Wednesday, May 07, 2008

ManYoo and Chelsea both getting action on title odds

It seems that it's a bit of a fan-fest this week as the top prices on both Manchester United and Chelsea are being snapped up by loyal fans.

Chelsea's win over Newcastle on Monday means that it will all go down to the final day of the season, and the title equation is quite simple ... Chelsea need to get more points on the final day than United.

Chelsea are priced at 4/1 (5.00) to win the title - and that price is being hit quite mard by some punters as they do the maths and work out the real chances of a Chelsea win.

Meanwhile Manchester United were priced at 1/4 (1.25), but bookmakers have been swamped and now the best price you can get is a 1/5 (1.20) quote.

So which price do I think is best? In order to answer that we need to make some basic assumptions about the two games - and come up with some match estimates.

Wigan Athletic v Manchester United
Wigan have actually been quite strong at the JJB recently. They have a 8-5-5 home record and are unbeaten in their last SEVEN home games.

United are hardly all-conquering when travelling - at just 9-5-4 in their 18 away games this season. But United have won their fxitures here at the JJB in the last two seasons 2-1, and 3-1.

Away games are hard to win - even Manchester United have won just half of their road fixtures so far and the 1.25 price on an away win speak volumes for bookmaker hype and spin - trying to sell awful odds to legions of fans with red-tinted glasses.

If this were a game with nothing on it then I'd have this game at 21%-24%-55% estimate, but United will be absolutely desperate - so I'll push it out to 13%-17%-70% - but no more.

Chelsea vs Bolton Wanderers
Chelsea don't lose league games at home, but they do draw a lot going 12-7-0 last season and 12-6-0 this season, and Bolton have avoided defeat in 3 of their last 4 trips to Stamford Bridge too.

Still Bolton are just 2-4-12 this season, and are safe from relegation now, so you must expect the home side to have far more motivation.

I'd make this game a 80%-13%-7% chance, with a Chelsea victory the mostly likely result by a long chalk.

The Betting Verdict
From here it's simple - just calculate the percentage likelihood of Chelsea getting moe points than ManYoo in the final game - and we should have our "fair odds".

The chances are :
Chelsea win (80%) * Man United draw or loss (30%) = 24%
Chelsea draw (13%) * Man United loss (13%) = 1.7%

So I think that Chelsea have a total 25.7% chance of the title (fair odds 3.89) while Manchester United have a 74.3% chance of winning the league (fair odds 1.34).

So Manchester United are strong favourites to win the league, but given the current prices - I'd put my tenner on Chelsea @ 5.00

RELATED LINKS :
Manchester United @ 1.20 at Centrebet
Chelsea @ 5.00 at Betsson
See all the Live Premier League Betting Odds at BookieLabrat.

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Man City being turned into a Thai toy for owner

Manchester City have reportedly offered Luiz Felipe Scolari the managers job at Eastlands - but have told him he must accept before the European Championships.

Various newspapers report that the current Portugal coach has been offered a contract worth around £3million a year to take over from Sven Goran Eriksson, who appears certain to be sacked at the end of the season - after Sven led City to their best league finish in 20 years !!

Both The Times and The Independent report that Thaksin Shinawatra has insisted that Scolari gives City an answer before Euro 2008 - but understandably Scolari is reluctant to do so, knowing that a winning performance could attract plenty of other attention.

Meanwhile Manchester City will arrive in Thailand on May 14 to open a club store and hold a clinic before playing against Thailand Premier All-Stars on May 17. A match with a South China Invitation XI follows in Hong Kong on May 22.

Who knows who will be in charge then ... this Shinawatra chap is rapidly turning things into a farce .. unfortunately I expect City to go backwards in 2008-09

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Betting in Spain


A spreadsheet test for Wednesday evening as there are 6 games in Spain where the home side is the favoured result (between 40-50%) but not strong enough to be a likely pick - and they are also priced at over 100% value.

Real Madrid to beat Barcelona @ 2.40 = 134%
Valencia to beat Zaragoza @ 2.10 = 107%
Real Murcia to beat Bilbao @ 3.20 = 141%
Mallorca to beat Osasuna @ 2.20 = 108%
Real Betis to beat Valladolid @ 2.30 = 117%
Santander to beat Sevilla @ 2.65 = 130%

All picks are priced above evens so we will need three home wins in order to make a profit. Note that I'm not saying that they all win - I'm relying on numbers through all SIX games here to make a profit.

Average price calculations suggest around a 22% yield return - by getting best prices. If you settle for lessor odds then you lower the yield.

Will the home sides deliver for us on Wednesday night?

RELATED LINKS :
Gooners Betting Spreadsheet output
And get Live Spanish Football Betting Odds

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Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Russia gives Champioins League fans a VISA waiver


Russia has waived normal visa requirements for a 72-hour period for football fans with a ticket for the Champions League final in Moscow.

Michel Platini, president of European football's governing body Uefa, has thanked the Russian government for an "unprecedented gesture".

Supporters will need to present a valid match ticket, a valid passport, and a completed immigration form upon arrival in Russia and the visa exemption will apply between 19 and 23 May.

Anyone overstaying the 72-hour entry period will then have to pay the fee for a regular visa when leaving the country.

The move will alleviate a huge burden on the Russian National Tourist Office in London, which has been handling visas on behalf of the Russian Embassy in Britain for the Champions League final.

More than 42,000 Chelsea and Manchester United fans are set to attend the match at the the Luzhniki Stadium on 21 May.

Fans without a ticket, hoping to travel independently, should be able to have their visas processed in plenty of time - though the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office has advised supporters not to travel "if they do not have a ticket or accommodation beforehand".

Both clubs have been given 21,000 tickets each for the final at the Luzhniki Stadium, where the capacity is being set specifically at 69,500.

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Liverpool get approval for new stadium - to open in 2011


Liverpool have been given the go-ahead for their new 60,000-seater stadium by the planning committe of the local council.

The new stadium to be built in Stanley Park is scheduled to open in August 2011 and will feature an 18,500-seat single tier stand for the Kop, which holds Liverpool's most vocal supporters. The current Kop seats 13,500.

The design is the third version of the plan. The original plans were discarded when Tom Hicks and his now-estranged business partner George Gillett were unimpressed by the design they inherited when they bought the club last year, and the second, more ambitious, scheme had to be scaled down due to rising costs.

In January the American sports tycoons completed a £350m refinancing package on the loan used to purchase the club and £60m was earmarked for the stadium. But Hicks, whose feud with Gillett has plunged the club into turmoil, said last month that he was still working with investment bank Merrill Lynch on raising the finances.

In recent years Liverpool have been left behind financially as rivals Manchester United expanded Old Trafford to seat 76,000 and Arsenal moved from 38,000-seat Highbury into 60,000-seat Emirates Stadium in July 2006.

Builing work on the new stadium will not begin on the project before September 2008.

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Manchester Utd losing it off the pitch

Manchester United are losing 160,000 pounds a day!
Manchester United will probably win probable second successive Premier League title and will take part in a Champions League final, but the club's accounts show a significantly bleaker picture of the club's finances.

Under the ownership of the Florida-based Glazer family, all the borrowings have been loaded onto ManYoo PLC and total loans now stand at a massive £666m by far the highest of any English football club, ever.

The total owed to all creditors, including the banks, was up to £764m and includes £56m that United owe to other clubs in transfer fee instalments on players Sir Alex Ferguson has signed.

When the United headline results were announced back in January, it was said that it produced record income of £210m and operating profits of £75m. But the full accounts show, that even though United made a further £11m profit from buying and selling players, the interest and other accounting provisions pushed United into recording an overall loss of £58m for the year!

The total interest payable by the club on its borrowings was £81m, although only £42m was actually paid. The rest is allowed to roll up until the whole amount has to be repaid in 2016, or, alternatively, until the Glazers can refinance it.

A total of £152m is currently owed to hedge funds, at a staggering 14.25% interest a year - £22m of that from 2007-08 alone. Last year the Glazers tried to refinance but were unable to strike a deal with financial institutions, and a spokesman acknowledged that the credit crunch is making it more difficult now.

Before the Glazer family's 2005 takeover, United prided itself on being the only Premier League club regularly to make a significant profit, to have cash in the bank and, unlike all the others, no debts.

The accounts also reveal that by far the highest proportion of income, £92.5m, is still generated on home match days, and although the club has announced more modest ticket price rises for next season than for the previous two, supporters groups continue to protest that they are paying the debts of a takeover they opposed.

"It is outrageous that supporters are paying the huge interest on these borrowings, which are worrying for the club's future," said Sean Bones of the Manchester United Supporters Trust. "Our money is pouring out to pay the Glazers, while they have not put a penny into the club."

A spokesman for the Glazer family pointed to the club's success on the field, and in generating income off it, as evidence of the family's competent management. "The family continue to run United as a business," he said. "Their model is to encourage success on the pitch by backing Sir Alex Ferguson, and to grow revenues off it. The interest payments are more than covered by the cash generated."

This amount of debt is incredible, the numbers being bandied about are like telephone numbers, and when you consider that Arsenal's stadium cost £360m to purchase all the land and construct then the total debt of £764m at United is obviously not backed by physical assets.

This could all end in tears if the TV money stops coming in ...

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Monday, May 05, 2008

Football Association look in Accrington v Bury betting pattern


The Football Association have announced they will look into the Accrington V Bury game after it emerged some bookmakers stopped taking bets on the Coca-Cola League Two clash on Friday after a raft of bets on the Shakers to win.

We also had a punter highlight this game early on Friday evening on our forum that we share with BestofTheBets.com and one punter working in the industry was able to confirm that Will Hill had suspended betting.

Subsequently both William Hill and Coral suspended betting markets on the game, while Betfair also reported unusually high amounts being placed on the clash.

Andy Bishop scored both goals for the visitors in Saturday's clash, and Accrington boss John Coleman refuted allegations that some of his players had been out on a stag party the night before the game.

After the loss, he said: "It's rubbish. There were rumours flying around about a stag do but it is not true. "We kicked into the game and gave our very best for 90 minutes."

The FA's director of communications Adrian Bevington revealed they would be speaking to the bookmakers over the allegations. He said: "This was a very unusual betting pattern - if the allegations are true. We were made aware of the situation on Friday.

"We will look very closely at the information Betfair and other bookmakers provide and take any subsequent action with the Football League and the two clubs concerned."

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Euro2008 Referees and pay levels announced.

UEFA said the 12 referees, who will be matched with assistants from each of their own countries, had been selected based on their good performances in European matches.

Referees will be paid 10,000 euros for every match at which they officiate with their assistants receiving 5,000 euros.

That corresponds to an increase of almost 60 percent compared with Euro 2004 where the officials received the same amount but in Swiss francs.

List of 12 Euro 2008 referees :
Konrad Plautz (Austria)
Frank de Bleeckere (Belgium)
Howard Webb (England)
Herbert Fandel (Germany)
Kyros Vassaras (Greece)
Roberto Rosetti (Italy)
Pieter Vink (Netherlands)
Tom Henning Ovrebo (Norway)
Lubos Michel (Slovakia)
Manuel Enrique Mejuto Gonzalez (Spain)
Peter Frojdfeldt (Sweden)
Massimo Busacca (Switzerland)

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