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The Bodog Bark: North American Sports Betting News & Views
NFL News
NFL Betting: Combine Harvesting
No other major pro sport depends on rookies like the NFL does. The average career in the league is less than four years, and it’ll be even shorter in 2011 now that Brett Favre has retired.
That’s why handicappers pay so much attention to the annual NFL Scouting Combine, which wrapped up on Tuesday in Indianapolis, and the NFL Draft, which is coming up at the end of April in New York.
The Super Bowl odds may be in favor of the defending champion Green Bay Packers at 7-1, but they have to draft No. 32 overall if they don’t trade up.
No wonder it’s so hard to keep a dynasty going.
The player with the biggest spotlight at the combine was former Auburn QB Cam Newton, the 2010 Heisman Trophy winner and part of an NFL family that includes father Cecil Sr. (strong safety, Dallas Cowboys) and older brother Cecil Jr. (center, Jacksonville Jaguars).
However, Newton only ranks No. 28 among the eligible prospects at Scouts Inc. His footwork is substandard at this level; Newton wasn’t near the leaders at his position during the 3-cone drill or the 20-yard shuttle, but he did tie for first in the broad jump and ran a 4.59 in the 40-yard dash, tying Washington’s Jake Locker for third.
Newton’s athleticism is strong enough that the Buffalo Bills are rumored to be considering taking him with the third overall pick.
This could be a franchise-defining moment for the Bills, who are near the bottom of the Super Bowl XLVI futures market at 100-1 & haven’t been to the playoffs since 1999.
Quarterback has been one of the primary reasons the Bills have been spinning their wheels. They’ve tried eight different starters since making the fateful decision to go with Rob Johnson over Doug Flutie in 2000. If Buffalo doesn’t reach for Newton at No. 3, he could find himself snapped up by the Washington Redskins (50-1) at No. 10 overall.
There was a time when Locker was the favorite to go first overall, but even after a strong combine, he’s a volatile commodity after an inconsistent 2010 season with the Huskies.
Meanwhile, Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert has been rocketing up the mock draft boards and could end up being the first quarterback taken in the draft – perhaps as high as the Arizona Cardinals (75-1) at No. 5.
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Updated: March 8, 2011
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MLB News
MLB Betting: Counting Down to Opening Day
Sadly, only one of the 30 teams in Major League Baseball can win the 2011 World Series. It won’t take long to separate the contenders from the pretenders, but for now, hope springs eternal.
Leave it to the handicappers to spoil things by looking at the cold reality of the MLB futures market. Here’s a glance at all 30 teams as we hit the 30-day mark before the start of the regular season.
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Philadelphia Phillies (13-4): Four aces in the rotation, but can they all stay healthy?
Boston Red Sox (9-2): Improvements to bullpen, better health should help alongside Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez.
New York Yankees (7-1): Can best afford to add talent at the trade deadline. Over twice the payout of Philadelphia if they win the World Series.
San Francisco Giants (14-1): Defending champions need another solid year out of Aubrey Huff and Pat Burrell.
Milwaukee Brewers (18-1): Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum could be enough to take the NL Central. Anything can happen after that once the playoffs start.
Texas Rangers (18-1): The leading candidates in a very weak AL West.
Chicago White Sox (20-1): Former Cy Young winner Jake Peavy appears healthy to start the season.
Minnesota Twins (20-1): Rumors at press time have Francisco Liriano being traded to the Yankees.
Atlanta Braves (22-1): Fredi Gonzalez takes over for Bobby Cox, Atlanta’s manager since 1991.
St. Louis Cardinals (22-1): Adam Wainwright had Tommy John surgery on Monday and will miss the 2011 season.
Tampa Bay Rays (22-1): Improved outfield depth with former Red Sox teammates Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon.
Cincinnati Reds (25-1): Will Edinson Volquez complete his recovery from Tommy John surgery and regain his 2008 form (17-6, 3.21 ERA)?
Colorado Rockies (25-1): Wild Card berths in 2007 and 2009 coming out of the NL West.
Detroit Tigers (25-1): The most profitable team at home last year with 17.01 units in earnings.
Los Angeles Angels (25-1): Former center fielders Vernon Wells and Torii Hunter now playing the corners.
Oakland Athletics (30-1): This is where contenders start becoming pretenders. Hideki Matsui is the new DH.
Chicago Cubs (35-1): Not much of a response after the big offseason trade for Matt Garza.
Los Angeles Dodgers (35-1): Major front office overhaul with manager Joe Torre and president Dennis Mannion both leaving L.A.
Florida Marlins (40-1): Dan Uggla (30 home runs in four straight seasons) is now a member of the Braves.
New York Mets (40-1): The Bernie Madoff-related legal case against the owners doesn’t bode well for the near future.
San Diego Padres (50-1): Led the majors last year with 19.05 units, but traded Gonzalez to Boston.
Toronto Blue Jays (50-1): Watch for projected new starting catcher J.P. Arencibia.
Baltimore Orioles (80-1): Young pitchers Chris Tillman and Zach Britton should pay dividends somewhere down the road.
Houston Astros (80-1): No. 29 in the majors last year in on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
Seattle Mariners (80-1): In full rebuilding mode for 2011 after dropping a league-worst 36.89 units in 2010.
Washington Nationals (80-1): Jayson Werth hit 18 of his 27 home runs last year at Citizens Bank Park.
Cleveland Indians (100-1): Grady Sizemore might not be ready to start the season until mid-April.
Arizona Diamondbacks (100-1): Had the biggest OVER record in the majors last year at 88-70.
Kansas City Royals (150-1): Luke Hochevar is projected to start Opening Day for perhaps the worst rotation in the league.
Pittsburgh Pirates (200-1): Last in the majors in payroll last year at $34.9 million, over $170 million less than the Yankees.
MLB Opening Day is less than a month away. Who’s your pick to win it all?
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If the Bills pass on Newton, it’ll be a sign of confidence in Ryan Fitzpatrick (23 TDs, 15 INTs in 2010), who could use some help on the offensive line.
Unfortunately for Fitzpatrick and the Bills, this looks like a defense-heavy first round. The first two spots look like they’ll be snapped up by a pair of beefy defensive linemen: tackle Nick Fairley from Auburn and end Da’Quan Bowers from Clemson.
It’s up to the Carolina Panthers to decide which man to take – Fairley has the inside track after winning the national championship and the 2010 Lombardi Award as best lineman or linebacker in college.
Buffalo’s best non-Newton choice at No. 3 might be Texas A&M linebacker Von Miller, who impressed at the combine with a 4.53 40-yard dash (second among LBs) and top results in the broad jump, 3-cone drill and the 60-yard shuttle.
But there’s some talk that Denver could take Miller at No. 2 after such a strong combine, not to mention a standout performance at the Senior Bowl. Bodog Sports will have a full slate of 2011 NFL Draft props as we count the days to April 28 and another weekend of mayhem at Radio City Music Hall. Handicappers will be doing their best Mel Kiper impersonations, matching player skill sets to team needs, but there’s also a certain amount of psychological warfare to the draft.
Buffalo’s apparent interest in Newton at No. 3 could be a smokescreen designed to scare other quarterback-hungry teams into trading up.
The Panthers have the most leverage when it comes to these tricks, even with two potential No. 1s on the board in Fairley and Bowers.
Expect the shenanigans to pick up speed in the week or two before the draft. Until then, you can find all the combine results (except for the Wonderlic test – Alabama’s Greg McElroy reportedly scored 48 out of 50) on the official NFL website.
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