AFL Aussie Rules
2011-05-08 - Essendon Bombers vs West Coast Eagles
A Sports Betting Pick by Costanzo
Time: 13:10 AEST
Venue: Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
This game will be interesting with the Bombers putting up a good show in the ANZAC day clash and beating the GC Suns well and the Eagles winning easily against the Demons at home. In Melbourne you would favour the Bombers, as the Eagles are noted for their inability to win on the road during their ordinary years.
Essendon Bombers
The defence of the Dons is still not their strong point, and I do not expect it to be for some time. However some of their younger guys are becoming more established and with the experience of the wily old campaigner Dustin Fletcher I think they can muster up enough solid defence to come home with the win.
Through the centre of the field the leadership of Jobe Watson has been on display for all to see. He has struggled with the captaincy in the past but appears to be relishing it this year under a new coach and his clearance work is highly rated. His shooting for goal can use a little more work but he is nearing being the ultimate centre-man. Support from Zaharakis and Stanton will be pivotal but their speed through the middle should see the transfer from defence to attack happen rapidly.
The Dons have been toying with their forward line up of late, and I must say I like the options they have. The two agile ruckmen in Paddy Ryder and David Hille can play as tall targets or move further up the ground. This causes match-up problems with defenders and usually results in the likes of Michael Hurley, Leroy Jetta and Angus Monfries getting a bit of the ball inside 50. This should see the Dons being able to post a big score at Etihad. Kepp in mind they posted a big total over the saints a few weeks back, and the Saints are well known for their ability to play lock-down football.
West Coast Eagles
The Eagles will be well rested but travelling to Melbourne just does not seem to agree with them. I don’t think they can pull off an upset in this one.
The defence is led by Darren Glass who is a former All-Australian full-back and is a man that the word loyalty certainly applies to. He looks set to end his career at the Eagles and if his passion can see him stay at the top of his game for another 4-5 seasons he might see the Eagles experience an upward trend in form. The likes of Shannon Hurn and Eric Mackenzie will need to do a bit also in this clash as the tall timber for the Bombers will require more than one key defender to play a negating role. My problem with the Eagles back is I do not feel they can stop the dual threat of the bombers crumbers and their big men. One or the other will not be good enough.
In the middle Andrew Embley is experiencing a great start to the year and if he can remain fit for the duration of the season he give the Eagles a massive chance at sneaking into the finals. The buck will not stop with him though with players like Rosa, Priddis, Selwood and Kerr all needing to demonstrate their ability against a midfield who is pretty evenly placed. The ruckmen in Naitanui and Cox have the ability to turn the game in favour of the Eagles and will be looking to do so from the outset.
In the forward line the Eagles can be quite explosive at times and there is no greater example than Mark LeCras. LeCras is a freak who can do anything from anywhere but he can also turn in plenty of average performances and that is probably his biggest pitfall. However, with that said, he is a vital cog in the West Coast machine and the whole forward struggles without him. Josh Kennedy is another key man whose marks are vital.
The Verdict
The Eagles will win this game 1 time in 20 on an ordinary year and
on a good year probably only 4 in 10. So you would have to favour the Dons rather comfortably in the end.
The Pick :
Essendon Bombers 114- West Coast Eagles 89
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Essendon to win by 16 or more points at 1.42 at Centrebet.
