Geelong Cats v Adelaide Crows
Football : Australia : AFL Aussie Rules
Date: 26-06-2011 Time: 13:10 AEST
Venue: Skilled Stadium, Geelong

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This game down at Skilled Stadium has only one potential result. The Cats will win this and win it well, but the question is how well?

I think they can cover the spread so that is why I am recommending this bet. In Melbourne you might expect the Cats to ease off, but in Geelong, in unfamiliar conditions for the Crows they really should be slaughtered.

Geelong Cats (1st 12-0-0)

The Cats had another tough win over the Saints last week but appeared to do it with a little left in the tank. Geelong lost Bartel through concussion, yet it didn’t seem to make much difference. Other players stood up through the middle and they pulled away in the end.

In defence the Cats look resolute as ever with Lonergan, Taylor, Milburn and Scarlett appearing impenetrable. Add Hunt into the mix and you have the best defence in the league. They haven’t been conceding big scores and I think these guys will ensure a very long day for the Adelaide attackers. If the weather is right it could be one of the lowest scores of the year.

Through the middle the Cats are likely to have Bartel back and the likes of Enright, Corey and Kelly will make sure it is a tough day for the inexperienced Crows. Ling and Varcoe are going to be important players in this one as Ling can shut down a player or two and go and kick 1-2 goals, whilst this could be a chance for Varcoe to end his run of quiet games.

Up forward the Cats are beginning to look like a team with a proper forward line. Podsiadly is their vocal point now and his marking is arguably the best in the league, especially over the last month.

Throw in Stokes who can get some crumbing goals as well as Vardy and Menzel who are both presenting bigger targets, and you have something that resembles a serious attacking force. With Chapman around on a day like today look for him to kick 3-4 goals and really put the Crows to the sword.

Adelaide Crows (14th 3-9-0)

The Crows came out of the blocks very fast last week in Melbourne, but then basically stopped and were defeated by 5 goals. I cannot understand the Crows, especially after the way they played their opening game against the Hawks. They will lose this one and I do see it blowing out.

The backline for the Crows is led by Rutten who is still solid but lacks overall support from his team, and that is why they get flogged weekly. It is not necessarily a reflection on him or his defensive colleagues such as Johncock, Otten and Symes.

In the midfield the Crows’ best player is Vince. He has the ability to be anything in this league, and the competition was raving about him after last season, but he hasn’t been able to reach those same heights again this season. Van Berlo and Thompson are two very useful midfielders when everything is going right, but you feel they cannot deal with the pressure of a big team on the road when they are desperate for a win.

In the forward line the Crows have been woeful of late. Tippet is their key target and he might kick 3 every week but that is not enough for the team, especially when the remainder of the side might only kick 4-5 between them. Petrenko could be an option if he has a good day but all things point to a low scoring game for the Crows.

The Verdict

The Geelong Cats to win the game by a mile

The Pick :

Geelong Cats 128-58 Adelaide Crows

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

85%

HANDICAP BETTING :

Take Geelong to cover the -55.5 pts at 1.92 at Centrebet.