NFL Football
2006-12-17 - Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers
A Sports Betting Pick by Fraggle
I have been having a look at how I think the AFC is going to end up and after looking into it further it has led to this early thought on Sundays game when the 7-6 Kansas City Chiefs travel to the new crowned AFC West champs San Diego.I opposed the Chiefs last week at home to Baltimore when they lost 20-10, their first December loss in Arrowhead in the last ten years but this week I will be with them on the road whey they visit the 11-2 Chargers.
San Diego are the new favourites for the Superbowl and RB LT scored 3 TD’s last week to surpass the NFL single season record, so everything in the garden must look rosy for HC Marty Schottenheimer after defeating Denver 48-20 to secure the title.
The Chiefs are coming off a loss where most of the crowd had left before the final whistle went and their playoff hopes look pretty bleak. But it is possible they could pull off a shock this weekend.
Before you call look to consign Fraggle to the loony house, let me outline why I think not only Kansas will cover but may even win.
Firstly Kansas seem to play LaDanian Tomlinson well. In their last four meetings LT’s rushing productivity has dropped;
2006 season 15 attempts – 66 yards No TD’s,
2005 season 14 attempts – 47 yards No TD’s,
2005 season 17 attempts - 69 yards No TD’s,
2004 season 21 attempts – 46 yards 2 TD’s.
The only other teams that he has failed to go in for a TD on this season are Baltimore and Pittsburgh.
Secondly San Diego are ranked 7th against run, but I think that is slightly deceptive they actually average the same amount on the ground conceded as Detroit and Green Bay.
The ranking is based on rushing yards conceded and for whatever reason their opposition have attempted to run the ball on San Diego less than any other NFL team.
The Chiefs if possible do like to rely on their RB’s to gain the yardage to open up the passing game and San Diego conceding an averaging of 4.1 yards per rushing attempt gives reason to think that Larry Johnson will be able to be productive on Sunday.
Thirdly the underdog is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings between these team at San Diego. I have looked back for this corresponding fixture back to 2002 and they haven’t beaten Kansas at home by more than 8 in this period.
Fourth reason. San Diego could be in a let down spot here, they are coming off a big win against Denver, they are assured of a play-off spot and they have to get on the plane for a big road game in Seattle after the weekend.
Compare that to the Chiefs who are on the brink of booking their holidays in January but a loss here would be the nail in the coffin.
There could be shock, but I feel confident this weekend backing Kansas on the handicap.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Kansas City Chiefs with the +9 point start.
