Sevilla FC v CD Numancia
Football: Spain, Primera Division
Saturday 17th January 2009 - Kickoff 21:00

Sevilla (3rd - Home : 5-2-2 13:8)

Sevilla are full of confidence after a hat-trick of wins over Deportivo la Coruna which leaves them sitting pretty in third spot in the Primera Liga, level on points with Real Madrid, and in the quarter-finals of the Copa del Rey.

Sevilla Team News :
Javi Varas will play in goal for the first time for Sevilla, replacing Anres Palop who was sent off in the midweek cup game.

Sevilla will also be without right-back Abdoulay Konko who has picked up a new injury and will be sidelined for around three weeks.

Good news is that Romaric, who picked up a knock at Depor in midweek, will be fit for the Numancia clash.

Numancia (15th - Away : 1-0-8 9:24)

Numancia have less than half Sevilla's points and lie in 15th place, due mainly to their awful away form.

At home Numancia have a good 5-2-2 record, but when travelling the defence buckles and the 24 away goals conceded is the worst record in the top league.

Numancia Team News :
Manager Sergio Kresic is likely to stick to the same side that won 2-0 at home to Getafe last weekend.

Head to Head

Although it's a bit old to be a real guide, Sevilla have won both home clashes in La Liga against Numancia.

The Verdict

Sevilla "should" win this game against poor opposition, but in recent times they've failed to win similar games, notably against Malaga and Osasuna.

Again, in my opinion a fair price would be around 1/2 (1.50), and the bookmakers are way short of that number, so although the home side do look likely to win - this is not a great betting line.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Sevilla 2-0 Numancia

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Sevilla 64% - Draw 19% - Numancia 17%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Yes - SEVILLA should win - but the price is poor.

Perhaps it's worth of a fun combo bet with Barca?