NCAA Football
2009-12-24 - Nevada Wolfpack at SMU Mustangs
A Sports Betting Pick by Bookmaker
Hawaii Bowl
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii (TV on ESPN)
Thursday, December 24th 2009, Kickoff 8:00 pm
SMU hooks up with Nevada in a matchup featuring the highest point-spread differential of all 34 bowl games.
Nevada (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS)
The Wolf Pack was favored by over two touchdowns last week but the line has since dropped to 12.5 after leading rusher Vai Taua was declared academically ineligible.
Taua's loss wouldn't be quite so dramatic if Luke Lippincott was available, but the other running back to pick up 1,000 yards will also miss the contest due to a toe injury.
The Nevada rushing attack that led the country in yards-per-game and yards-per- carry will now be without two of the team's three 1,000-yard rushers and it means that QB Colin Kaepernick (7.8 yards per carry) will be Nevada's top rushing threat
On the other side of the ball, the Wolf Pack ranked 119th nationally in pass defense allowing 31 passing touchdowns, the highest number in the entire country.
SMU Mustangs (7-5 SU, 6-5 ATS)
SMU owns a 55%-45% pass-run ratio so look for the Mustangs to exploit the 'Pack's major weakness.
SMU's June Jones is very familiar with the state of Hawaii as he was the Warriors head coach for nine years. He never lost to Nevada when coaching Hawaii (4-0), while the Wolf Pack is 1-5 in its last six trips to Honolulu.
SMU is going to its first bowl game in 25 years - and that should be powerful motivation to do well.
The Betting Verdict
Take SMU plus the 13 points.
The Pick :
Take SMU plus the points.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take the SMU MUSTANGS to stay well within the +13 point spread as they win the game.
