English Premier
2010-03-13 - Hull City vs Arsenal
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: England, Premier League 2009/2010
Saturday, 13th March 2010 - Kickoff 5:30pm
Hull City
Phil Brown may have escaped the headlines regarding the status of his job this calendar year, after all the talk in the early part of the season, but this is not due to Hull City moving up the table. They are in the midst of a dogfight and need to show a lot more belief than they did when being crushed 5-1 at Goodison Park last Sunday.
Hull sit in 19th place in the Premier League with 24 points to their name. They are only in the relegation zone due to their terrible goal difference at the moment although the 2 sides directly above them, Burnley and Wolves, play each other this weekend. With West Ham in 16th being 3 points better off than Hull, the situation is getting desperate and there are fears that Hull could find themselves cut off in the relegation zone sooner rather than later. Hull are 5-5-3, scoring 18 goals and conceding 20, at the KC Stadium this season.
The Tigers have lost 3 games in a row, conceding 9 goals in those games, but all of them have been away from the KC Stadium. They are unbeaten in their last 3 at home, winning last time out against Manchester City while also forcing a 1-1 draw with Chelsea here.
Hull will feel confident of playing at home with only 1 defeat in their last 10 at the KC Stadium, and that being a 1-3 defeat to Manchester United. That scoreline was harsh on Phil Brown's side and took 2 goals in the last 20 minutes to put a gloss on the scoreline.
Anthony Gardner misses out for Hull, while Stephen Hunt is going to need to pass a late fitness test. The hugely influential Jimmy Bullard made his comeback last week and suffered no reaction to his injury so could start this game.
Arsenal
Arsenal performed with real maturity in their game with Porto on Tuesday night and were worthy winners. Nicolas Bendtner made his critics eat some of their harsh words after the Burnley game with a hat-trick and now looks to help fire Arsenal to the Premier League summit on Saturday evening.
Arsenal currently sit in 3rd place in the Premier League with their 61 point tally being only 2 less than Manchester United at the top of the table. They do have what looks like the easier run in to the end of season, but football games are won on the pitch and not on paper and there is still some factors to throw into the mix, namely the final stages of the Champions League.
Arsenal are 7-3-4 away from home and have scored 28 goals while conceding 17 in those matches. This gives them the joint most wins in the division away from home, while also making them the top scorers away.
The Gunners have won 4 in a row in all competitions since losing at Porto and also won 4 straight Premier League games since being ruled out of the title race with back to back defeats to Manchester United and Chelsea. Arsenal have only won 1 of their last 5 away games in all competitions, but that in their last away game at Stoke City. They have only lost 1 of their last 7 Premier League away games, winning 4 of those games.
Cesc Fabregas is rated as only '50-50' according to Arsene Wenger and his inclusion is vital to this game. William Gallas is still out injured while Alex Song will complete his suspension.
Head to Head
Arsenal have beaten Hull in 3 straight games after they were stunned 1-2 by the Tigers at the Emirates Stadium last season.
They have only met once at the KC Stadium. Last season Arsenal came to the ground and won 1-3, although it took 2 goals in the last 10 minutes from the Gunners to secure all 3 points.
Prediction
Hull City remain a different prospect at home than they do on their travels, and they have had some strong results there in recent weeks. The return of Jimmy Bullard is a huge bonus for the side and could be the difference in their bid for survival.
Phil Brown will also recognise that his side are now getting to the point of the season where points mean everything over performances and they do not want to be the 2nd side, after Portsmouth, that gets cut off at the bottom.
Arsenal are full of confidence as their title challenge heads into the final stretch. They have remained on the coat-tails of Chelsea and Manchester United but will also be too aware of dropping silly points at this late stage. Cesc Fabregas is an important part of the side, and though they beat Porto without him, games like this can be decided by the magic Fabregas provides for a side.
Hull have had some terrible results of late, but a closer inspection shows that all of them are coming away from the KC Stadium, a stadium where they have performed strongly in recent matches. The key for me in this game is the availability of Fabregas- if he starts I think Arsenal will win this game, but otherwise it could be a tough afternoon for the Gunners.
The first goal is going to be important, as it usually is in most games, but I do feel if Hull can score first, they can get something out of this game. Against the better judgement of many, I am going to play Hull on the handicap here.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Hull City 1-1 Arsenal
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Hull City +1.25 Asian Handicap
