Italian Serie A
2010-04-11 - AS Roma vs Atalanta
A Sports Betting Pick by Shady
Football : Italy : Serie A
Sunday, 11th April 2010 - Kickoff 3pm
Match Analysis :
Roma will going into today’s game full of confidence as Ranieri side have picked up 5 wins in their last 6 home games including a massive massive win again Inter Milan two weeks ago. The same cannot be said to Atalanta as they are on the total opposite of Roma’s current form, losing 5 of their last 6 away games.
Captain Francesco Totti who is their leading scorer in the League with 10 goals will be the man Ranieri will be banking on to get the goals as well as provide them. With Totti having his sights firmly on the Scudetto i believe the Italian international might just give in 110% in his game as well as the remaining games.
Nicola Amoruso believes that team spirit can bring his Atalanta out of relegation and get something out of the Roma game. We Atalanta being woeful on the road all season, Amoruso can still mention that his team is united and we will exploit this strength.
Roma have been undefeated for a long time now with 22 games. The defeat will come sooner or later but i expect this run to undefeated run to continue at least another week. Ranieri will have an entire squad to select from with no suspension and new injuries.
Probable Linups :
Roma :
Julio Sergio, Cassetti, Mexes, Burdisso, Risse, De Rossi, Pizarro, Perrotta, Totti, Vucinic and Toni.
Atalanta :
Consigli, Manfredini, Pellegrino, Blanco, Capelli, Pinto, Ascentis, Padoin, Valdes, Tiribocchi and Amoruso.
Asian Handicap Analysis :
Under the asian handicap line this season, Roma have secured 10 payout for punters, 2 draws and 4 losses at home this season.
Roma last betting loss on handicap came way back in October when they failed to defeat Livorno. As for the Siena game, Roma won the game but failed to cover the big head start given while Roma was held by A.C Milan.
On the other hand, Atalanta is worse team on the asian handicap line this season on the road in Seria A. No other team in the Seria A have lost 11 games on the handicap line away from home.
The only games that Atalanta managed to payout were against Chievo, Udinese, Seina, Bolonga and Catania.
The Betting Verdict :
Roma is currently the in-form team in the Serie A. After a slow start to the season Roma have bounce back tremendously to move to 2nd spot and even more so pushing Inter to the wire for the Seria A.
With Roma having such impressive home record, i cannot see an upset here.
To make matters even better for Roma, Atalanta are poor on the road. They have picked up 11 defeats from 16 away games and let in an average of 1.6 goals a game. Roma on the other hand have scored an average of almost 2 goals a game. In addition with Toni leading the lines supported by Totti and Vucinic, i would be amazed if Roma don’t take all three points here today.
Based on that statistic, I would firmly backed Roma to win this game and continue to push Inter right down to the wire. With Inter playing Fiorentina away today, any slip up would allow Roma to overtake Inter for the first time this season and probably at the most crucial moment with 5 games remaining.
I cant see any sense in backing the worse team on the handicap against one of the best teams on the handicap. With an entire squad to select from by Ranieri, i expect Roma to collect all three points today and put even more pressure on Atalanta.
The Statistics :
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BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Roma to win the game. (Main Bet)
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Roma to cover the -1.25 head start as well.
