Villarreal v Atletico Madrid
Football : Spain : Primera Division
Saturday, 17th April 2010 - Kickoff 21:00 GMT

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Match Analysis :

To an outsider the season looks to be fairly promising for Atletico Madrid as they are still in the three competitions (La Liga, Copa Del Rey and Europa League). However with back to back defeats including a devastating lost to rock bottom team Xerez have left the Madrid fans devastated.

Atletico Madrid league position is largely disappointing for Sanchez Flores and his team as Atletico have qualified for Champions League for the past two season. Atletico might miss out playing in Europe if they failed to win the Europe League as they look highly unlikely to qualify for Europe based on their league position.

With Sanchez Flores priority definitely on Europe and Copa Del Rey final, he might just rotate and rest a couple of key players going into this game. Diego Forlan is likely to be rested and probably even Aguero or Simao as Sanchez would like his star players to bit fresh ahead of the big game against Liverpool.

Carlos Garrido’s side was largely disappointing in their midweek match against Getafe when Villarreal was hammered 3-0 by the home side. With Valencia doing them a favour in midweek by defeating Athletic Bilbao, the yellow submarines are still 2 points behind Bilbao who is currently lying n 6th spot, the final qualifying spot for Europe.

Garrido will be without Marcos Senna and Gonzalo Rodrigues as they are both sideline. Garrido will likely to call Manuel Catala and Musacchio from the youth team to fill their spots.

Form Analysis :

This would be a close battle as both teams still have an outside chance in qualifying for Europe next season with Villarreal having a better chance.

With half Sanchez Flores mind the on the Europa League game against
Liverpool, he might just rotate or rest a couple of his key players.

As for Villarreal, they are in good form at home winning 5 of their last 6 games. Atletico Madrid are in the exact opposite as their form on the road is woeful, winning none of their last 6 away games.

If losing to Espanyol 3-0 last weekend was bad, the midweek defeat against bottom side Xerez must be terrible.

Probable Line Ups :

Villarreal :
Lopez, Ange, Musacchio, Godin, Capdevila, Ibagaza, Cani, Bruni, Rossi, Llorente and Nilmar.

Atletico Madrid :
De Gea, Ujfalusi, Juanito, Dominguez, Lopez, Assuncao, Tiago, Reyes, Jurado, Simao, and Aguero.

Asian Handicap Analysis :

Under the AH line this season, Villarreal have won 10 games and lost 5 games under the handicap line at home this season. With a 63% winning rate at home, only Mallorca and Athletic Bilbao have a better winning record than Villarreal under the handicap line.

Interestingly 3 of the 5 handicap losses for Villarreal came at the opening weeks of the season. Villarreal have only lost one game at home since early October and failed to cover the handicap on the other occasion.

On the other hand, Atletico Madrid are one of the worst teams on the road in the Spanish League under the handicap line. Madrid have only managed to win 5 games from a possible 16, drawing 2 and losing the remaining 9 games under the AH line.

However three of the 5 wins here came against teams fighting to avoid the drop (Xerez, Valladolid, Racing Santander) while Atletico only defeated Real Madrid on the handicap as Madrid was giving a big head start.

The Betting Verdict :

Based on the asian handicap statistics, Villarreal is a solid team at home and I fancy their chances to win against an Atletico Madrid side who is poor on the road.

With Villarreal being one of the best teams at home under the handicap line and Atletico Madrid being one of the worse teams on the road at the handicap, my money is firmly on Villarreal.

However, even though the odds are against Madrid to win, but a draw is possible as both Villarreal and Atletico Madrid are two of the most draw team.

Therefore I reckon taking Villarreal on a "draw no bet" option to be a banker bet as I can’t see Madrid stunning the home team at the El Madrigal.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Villarreal 2-1 Atletico Madrid (or 3-1)

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take Villarreal to win the game - main bet

HANDICAP BETTING :

Take Villarreal +0 AH as a banker