INTERNATIONAL BETTING PICK - AUSTRALIA V NEW ZEALAND

International

2010-05-24 - Australia vs New Zealand

A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner

Australia v New Zealand
FIFA : World Cup : International Warm-up
Monday, 24th May 2010 - Kickoff 7:30 Aust, 10:30am GMT

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Australia and New Zealand clash for the first time in five years, and for the first time since Australia left the Oceania Confederation to play in the Asian Confederation.

Australia left Oceania ostensibly for "tougher competition" as there was little doubt that the Aussies totally dominated Oceania, but there was also the factor that Australia found it hard to actually qualify for the World Cup with two-legged play-offs against South American or European Qualifiers.

It's ironic therefore, that FIFA immediately re-organised the playoff schedule when Australia departed, giving the Oceania Champions an easier Asian playoff route.

New Zealand took that opportunity and so this clash of the trans-Tasman rivals will be a World Cup build-up for both Nations.

Australia (FIFA Rank : 20)

Australia is growing in stature on the World stage, and this is underlined by their FIFA Ranking of 20th, but the Aussies do not harbour any real hopes of shaking World Football yet. That may have to wait for 2022, especially if Australia manage to succeed in their bid to host that World Cup.

The Aussies took a big step forward on 2006 in Germany, qualifying out of their Group ahead of Japan and Croatia, and only going out to a late, late goal from Italy - in a very disputable penalty.

This time Australia had a fairly comfortable time in qualifying from the Asian Confederation winning their final group with a 6-2-0 record from 8 games and beating Bahrain 2-0 (H) and 1-0 (A).

Top scorers for the Aussies in qualification were Tim Cahill and Brett Emerton both with 4 goals.

Australia have been dealt a tough draw, with Germany (6), Serbia (16) and Ghana (32) also in Group D - but Aussies never lack in confifdence and so the "SoccerRoos" will travel to South Africa with some hope.

New Zealand (FIFA Rank : 78)

New Zealand qualified for their second ever World Cup Finals with a 1-0 aggregate win over Bahrain (0-0 A, 1-0 H), in front of a packed Westpac Stadium in Wellington.

New Zealand's path to the World Cup Finals is now arguably one of the easiest in the World, as the first stage is a stroll through the disparate islands of the Oceania Confederation (winning the first five games to qualify) before a two-legged playoff with the 5th best Asian side.

In the past Oceania's route has been blocked by playoffs with European and South American teams (as detailed above) and now FIFA have decided to take a more geographical (and easier) approach with 32 qualifiers reqaching the finals.

That's not to say that this New Zealand team have not improved, they certainly have, with 21 of the 23 players named in the squad playing football professionally with clubs like Blackburn Rovers, Middlesbrough, Plymouth Argyle and Celtic.

But the FIFA ranking of 77th in the World is still an accurate reflection of where the Kiwis stand in world football.

New Zealand are in Group F and drawn with Italy (5), Paraguay (30), and Slovakia (38), but despite the relatively favourable draw no-one really expects the "All Whites" to play more than 3 group games in South Africa.

Match Analysis

Recently, New Zealand faced 17th ranked Mexico in a friendly in Los Angeles, and despite New Zealand showing some good touches they were comprehensively outplayed by the Mexicans - and lost 0-2.

I feel that a full-strength Australian squad is of very comparitive strength to Mexico, and this result is a good guide.

Backing up that observation is the comparitive results against Bahrain - with Australia winning both games (1-0, 2-0), while New Zealand obtained a win and a draw by scoring the only goal in 180 minutes.

To put this Australia v New Zealand into a European context - this fixture shapes up as a match-up similar to England v Scotland or Germany v Austria.

The underdog has a "traditional" rivalry with the favourite, but while spirit and effort can go a long way, it usually is not enough at top international level.

New Zealand have been experimenting with a "back three" in order to play more attacking players as the Kiwis better professional players are forwards - but that seems a suicidal approach against top calibre opposition and I'm not convinced it will pay off in the next couple of months.

RECENT HEAD TO HEAD

Of most relevance are the World Cup Qualifying matches - as usually both sides are able to bring back European based players during the "FIFA Windows" to field full strength sides.

Australia have won the last five World Cup games in a row, scoring 12 goals and conceding just once. This is probably the best reflection of the strength of the sides.

28/06/1997 Auckland    New Zealand 0:3 (0:2) Australia
06/07/1997 Sydney      Australia 2:0 (1:0) New Zealand

20/06/2001 Wellington  New Zealand 0:2 (0:1) Australia
24/06/2001 Sydney      Australia 4:1 (2:1) New Zealand

29/05/2004 Adelaide    Australia 1:0 (1:0) New Zealand

Also of interest are the Oceania Confederation matches.

The "suits" running Football Federation Australia generally expected to waltz through these events easily and frequently did not bother to recall European players.

Uh-oh. A domestically based Australian side slipped up twice against the Kiwi's - to much enjoyment of fans on the Black and White side of the Tasman sea.

15/11/1995 Newcastle   Australia 3:0 (0:0) New Zealand 
04/10/1998 Brisbane    Australia 0:1 (0:1) New Zealand
28/06/2000 Papeete     Australia 2:0 (1:0) New Zealand
14/07/2002 Auckland    Australia 0:1 (0:0) New Zealand

Finally we come to the two friendly games - potentially also relevant to this fixture. Australia won both games by the only goal of the game.

18/01/1997 Melbourne   Australia 1:0 (1:0) New Zealand
09/06/2005 London      Australia 1:0 (0:0) New Zealand

SQUAD LISTS

AUSTRALIAN SQUAD :
Goalkeepers:
Adam Federici, Eugene Galekovic, Brad Jones, Mark Schwarzer

Defenders:
Michael Beauchamp, David Carney, Scott Chipperfield, Shane Lowry, Mark Milligan, Craig Moore, Lucas Neill, Jade North, Luke Wilkshire, Rhys Williams

Midfielders:
Mark Bresciano, Tim Cahill, Nicky Carle, Jason Culina, Brett Emerton, Richard Garcia, Vincenzo Grella, James Holland, Brett Holman, Mile Jedinak, Tommy Oar, Carl Valeri, Dario Vidosic

Forwards:
Joshua Kennedy, Harry Kewell, Scott McDonald, Nikita Rukavytsya

NEW ZEALAND SQUAD :
Goalkeepers:
James Bannatyne, Glen Moss , Mark Paston

Defenders:
Andy Boyens, Tony Lochhead, Ryan Nelsen, Winston Reid, Ben Sigmund , Tommy Smith, Ivan Vicelich

Midfielders:
Andy Barron, Leo Bertos, Tim Brown, Jeremy Christie, Aaron Clapham , Simon Elliott, Michael McGlinchey, David Mulligan

Forwards:
Jeremy Brockie, Rory Fallon, Chris Killen, Shane Smeltz, Chris Wood

THE BETTING VERDICT :

This will be close for a while - but Australia should make the break-through and then ease to a multiple goal win - and if Australia do not win comfortably - then there will be a massive outcry from the Aussie media and public alike.

I have Australia as very, very likely winners.

The Pick :

BEST BETTING TIP :

Take Australia to win - and take the easy profit.