World Cup
2010-06-20 - Italy vs New Zealand
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
Football : FIFA World Cup 2010 : Group Phase
Sunday, 20th June 2010 - Kickoff 15:00 BST
Italy
Italy's defence of the World Cup title won in 2006 started off in sound enough fashion last week with a 1-1 draw against Paraguay. While Italy did not win- I felt that the Azzurri did enough during the second half to push Paraguay very much onto the defensive.
Italian fans and reporters have been somewhat harsh on Italy, damning a alrgely workmanlike effort, but to my mind that is pretty much what we have seen for the last 4-5 years from Italy.
Defensively very solid, and able to score in nearly every match, Italy are a threat against every opponent, but are unlikely to run rampant. Italy scored just 18 goal in 10 qualification matches - and only scored 3 goals once - in the final match ay home to Cyprus.
One worrying issue is the injury to Gianluigi Buffon. A hernited disc in his back has ruled him out of this match and he will be replaced by Federico Marchetti who also played the 2nd half against Paraguay.
Another is the continued absence of midfielder Andrea Pirlo with a calf strain.
Probable Italy Line up (4-4-2) :
Zambrotta, Cannavaro, Chiellini, Criscito
Camoranesi, De Rossi, Monolivo, Pepe
Gilardino, Iaquinta
New Zealand
This New Zealand side continue to go from strength to strength over the last 12 months - continuing to set higher and high benchmarks for themselves.
After qualifying for South Africa for the first time in 28 years, the "All Whites" then achieved their best ever result in Europe by beating Serbia 1-0 in a friendly game in Austria, a result that now looks very good indeed.
The Kiwis then followed that up with a 1-1 draw against Slovakia in the first group game, thanks to a 93rd minute equaliser from Winston Reid, earning New Zealand their first ever World Cup point.
However, despite the scale of these achievements the truth is that New Zealand's heady heights are the minimum required to play at this level - and for the Kiwis to get anything out of this match they will need to catch Italy on a bad day.
Probable New Zealand Line-up (3-4-3) :
Reid, Nelsen, Smith
Bertos, Elliott, Vicelich, Lochhead
Killen, Fallon, Smeltz
Yes, the New Zealanders really will play three upfront, even against Italy, as these three players are probably the outstanding individuals in the side - along with captain Ryan Nelsen.
Head to head
The two sides clashed last year in a friendly as a part of the buildup to the Confederations Cup held in South Africa.
Italy fielded a largly second string side early on, and were stung THREE times by New Zealand who grabbed leads twice in the game at 2-1, and 3-2.
Italy reacted by a wholesale change of five replacements (it was a friendly game) halfway through the second half, and normal service was restored as Italy eased to a 4-3 victory.
But Italy have been warned. New Zealand's front three are big and strong, and if the Kiwi's are treated too lightly then this game could be uncomfortable.
DID YOU KNOW ?
Here is a statistic I bet you did NOT know.
0 – ZERO is the number of games Italy have won this year, making the holders the only team in South Africa without a win in 2010.
Marcello Lippi’s side’s last victory came with a 1-0 friendly triumph over Sweden on 18 November 2009, with the time since yielding three draws and a defeat.
The Betting Verdict
This game really does come down to Italy - and their attitude towards this match.
If Italy are fully focused and concentrated then they will dominate posession, and chances and the Azzurri should win the match with some ease - despite New Zealand's whole-hearted efforts.
Given Italy only drew their first game, and the fact that Italy have direct knowledge of what can happen if they under-estimate their opponents I expect to see a throughly professional display from the defending champions.
Additional warnings in the form of Spain's shock loss to Switzerland, and England's failure to beat Algeria should have the Italian management on alert to avoid any complacency.
As such, I see Italy totally controlling the ball, and winning this match 1-0 or 2-0.
The Pick :
Italy 2-0 New Zealand
BEST BETTING TIP :
I will take Italy to win at prices of 1.20 or moreIf you want a bigger payout then Italy to win to NIL seems a good play. Best price is 1.67 at PaddyPower if you are quick.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
I will ignore the asian handicap of -1.5, because Italy are completely capable of winning by a 1-0 scoreline only and making it look easy.
