SPANISH LA LIGA BETTING PICK - VALENCIA V ESPANYOL

Spanish La Liga

2011-01-02 - Valencia vs Espanyol

A Sports Betting Pick by Caged

Valencia

Home Record W4 D3 L1 GF13 GA9

I dont expect this to be a good game. Valencias transitional period enforced on them by financial difficulties continues. Progress under Emery has been slow and steady if unspectacular.

The issue as a punter is that whilst you would expect them to win games like Espanyol at home, Los Che are regularly priced up at prices that would have been more appropriate a year or more ago when Valencia boasted real star quality.

Now they are just a very good side in the division, and cannot be trusted at short prices against organised motivated opponents. Theyve let punters down at short odds at home against Osasuna, Zaragoza and Mallorca so far this season and have only the 10th best home record in the league. And theyve barely played anyone good at the Mestalla yet.

Los Ches famously strong defence has been uncharacteristically porous, Emerys macro organisational style having failed to prevent the opposition scoring just 3 times in 16 league games.

A stronger rearguard was in evidence in the Copa Del Rey goalless draw against Villareal and it would be no surprise if Valencia adopted a similar approach for the visit of Espanyol, hoping Mata and Aduriz can spring a winner at the other end. This could make for poor viewing.

When noting Valencia troubles at home, it is also an indicator of their struggles that they have the divisions second worst disciplinary record. Theyre notching up on average 6.5 yellows a game and have seen 1 red.

Central defender Navarro and striker Soldado miss out for Valencia.

Espanyol

Away Record W2 D1 L5 GF5 GA15

Espanyol come into this game on the back of that 5-1 humiliation in the derby.

Pochettino's side are a defensive, suffocating side at the best of times and are usually pretty good at it, but after a result like that a trip to Valencia may mean they clam up even more than we might have expected in normal circumstances.

This is especially true when you consider that these teams are locked in battle for the final Champions League qualification place.

THe Betting Verdict

Given Espanyol's rubbish away form, Valencia are the obvious bet, but they have proven they can't be touched at these sorts of prices against sides worse than Espanyol, and who knows what effect the short break will have.

So I wouldn't like to pick a winner in this one at the prices, nor do I want to try the goals markets.

But the cards market is interesting. Espanyols disciplinary record is even worse than Valencia's. The worst offending team in the division, averaging 6.2 yellows and suffering 3 reds in 16 games.

Spanish referees are usually very card happy but unfortunately, probably deliberately, our referee isnt one of them. Hes showing an average 4.8 cards a game.

But this is a must not lose match between two closely matched, ultra competitive and badly disciplined sides. Expect it to be niggly, stop start, with both teams trying to stretch and bend the rules to gain any advantage they can. And that should mean cards.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

BEST BETTING TIP :

Take Over 6.5 cards in this game at 2.10 (bet365)

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