NFL Football
2011-11-24 - Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NFL
Thursday, November 24th, 2011, 12:30PM US
(5:30PM GMT)
PREVIEW
Right, the Green Bay Packers have been awesome this entire year, going back to last season, and are currently riding a 10-0 record this season. But it's very important to realise just how much they have needed their QB Aaron Rodgers to perform to record breaking levels, as the defence has been extremely poor. I've been going against them ATS the last few weeks, and while I lost against Minny, the Packers did fail against the spread last week when beating Tampa Bay 35-26.
Green Bay are gaining 408 yards per game but giving up a staggering 392 yards per game. Amazing numbers for a team that is undefeated so far, and of course it is not crazy to expect the to get beaten one of these days because going undefeated through the season isn't easy. Only the Patirots have ever done that and even they suffered a bad game, unfortunately, it came in the Superbowl!
Green Bay are undefeated despite their pathetic defence, especially against the pass, because of 2 things. The pass offence, led by Rodgers, and turnovers, where the Pack are +12 in turnover margin (takeaways - giveaways). If Rodgers cannot throw to his high standards, and they cannot benefit from more takeaways, expect them to struggle. Think about it, last week the Packers were in Tampa and despite Rodgers throwing for 299 yards and 3 TDs, they fell short of the cover.
Detroit are always the punching bag, getting stuffed on Thanksgiving Day year after year and they will want to change that awful Turkey Day run. Green Bay did the business over them in 2007 and 2009, winning 37-26 and 34-12 but last year Detroit did win in December, beating the Packers 7-3 after Rodgers got knocked out of the game. The other game last season between the two ended 28-26 to the Packers at Lambeau Field.
One last thing, regarding Rodgers. The Packers QB will be facing probably the best pass defence he has seen this year, making it hard for him to play to his crazy standards. The Detroit pass defence has given up just 193 yards per game this season, 5th best in the NFL! Detroit have also gathered 15 interception, 2nd most in the NFL. Last week, they intercepted Cam Newton 4 times.
BETTING VERDICT
Honestly, if you don't like betting against the Packers, this is a game to avoid. I have a feeling Rodgers will be frustrated by Detroit here, who are more than capable of putting up big points as Stafford throws on the Packers 31st ranked pass defence.
Take Detroit with the 6 point start at over evens as there is line value here. If you want the 7 point start, the price does drop, but not enough to make it a bad bet as it pays 1.80 over at Pinnacle.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Detroit Lions +6
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take the Detroit Lions +6 @ 2.01 (Pinnacle)
