Air Force Falcons v Toledo Rockets
United States: NCAA College Football Bowl Game
Wednesday 28 December 2011 - Kick Off 4:30pm ET
9:30pm (British Standard Time)

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Preview

The Air Force Falcons (7-5) have equalled a school record of entering their 5th consecutive Bowl game, much of that down to 4 wins from their last 5 games to end the season. They only finished 3-4 in the MWC this year, although they were not really blown out in any game this year except when they went down to Notre Dame.

The school will be facing the Toledo Rockets (8-4), a team who finished the season with 7 wins from their last 8 games and one that went 7-1 in MAC play. The Rockets will be without the mastermind of their success this year as Tim Beckman has moved on to Coach Illinois, but there is not much expectation of a huge drop-off as they have given Matt Campbell, the Offensive Co-Ordinator, the chance to keep the program moving forward.

Toledo have been amongst the highest scoring teams in the nation, and are in the upper categories of most of the major Offensive categories. They have shown the ability to move the ball both on the ground and through the air, while they also have a good Special Teams unit that supplies great field position.

Adonis Thomas and Morgan Williams will get things going on the ground for Toledo and should take advantage of the biggest weak point in the Air Force Defense, one that has allowed 5 yards per carry on the year. With the Rockets moving at 5.1 yards per carry, I expect they will be able to move the chains consistently and will also keep the team in short and manageable situations for much of the game.

That should allow Terrance Owens and Austin Dantin, who have both shared time under Center, to make their plays from the QB position. Together, they have combined for 30 TDs and 6 Interceptions and they have been well protected behind this Offensive Line. While the Falcons have not given up a lot of yards through the air, I expect Toledo will be able to make enough plays with the Falcons allowing more than 60% of passes to be completed against them.

With the running game likely to be working well, I can't imagine the QBs will be throwing in too many 3rd and long situations and that could make it easier for them to consistently move the chains and get into scoring positions.

Air Force are very much known for running their triple-option from the backfield, a system that can pose plenty of problems for opposing Defenses. Tim Jefferson is the man under Center through which the entire Offense is run, and it was Jefferson who scored 10 of the 39 rushing TDs from the Falcons this season. However, this could be a tough test for an Offense that has 5.8 yards per carry as Toledo's Defense has actually played the run fairly well this season.

Toledo have only allowed 3.8 yards per carry this year, but that could also be down to the fact that their Secondary has really struggled against the pass all year. They have allowed 277 yards per game through the air, but it remains difficult to imagine the Air Force Offense throwing the ball on them.

Air Force have only gained 138 yards per game through the air and they will not want Tim Jefferson coming at Toledo from 3rd and long situations as the Rockets can generate some real pressure on the opposition QB. The whole key to this game could be whether the Rockets can slow down the triple-option to such an extent, that they force Air Force out of their comfort zone and get them to throw the ball from 3rd and long situations.

Head to Head

Air Force finished the regular season with a 5-7 record against the spread, Toledo were 7-5.

Other Interesting Trends

Air Force are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games as the underdog.

Toledo are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games as the favourite.

They are 1-4-1 against the spread in their last 6 games against non-Conference opponents.

Prediction

I am going to back the Toledo Rockets to earn the Bowl win tonight in a high scoring game for the following reasons:

First, Air Force have really struggled when playing against opponents who can run the ball as well as they can and they face a Toledo team that certainly fits into that category.

Second, the Falcons could be put in an uncomfortable spot if their triple-option rushing attack fails to get the measure of the Rockets run Defense.

Third, I think the Toledo Rockets have the slightly more consistent Offense and I think that may lead them to the close win.

The Pick :

Air Force Falcons 34-41 Toledo Rockets

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back the Toledo Rockets -3 Points @ 1.92 (Coral)