Europa League
2012-04-26 - Athletic Bilbao vs Sporting Lisbon
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
Football : Europe : Europa League
Thursday, April 26th, 2012, 8:05PM GMT
PREVIEW
Sporting Lisbon did exactly what I expected them to do and scored 2 goals at home, but the defence really came through and restricted Bilbao, meaning the Spaniards face the same uphill battle Barcelona and Real Madrid have fought and lost this week. The other semi-final guarantees a Spanish side in the finals, but for 3 Spanish teams to all crash out in the semi-finals would be terrible.
The one thing that stands out immediately as you scan through Bilbao's matches in the Europa League is that they always score. They have netted in every game, home and away, and that is because they take an insane number of shots. Their 168 shots, and 78 shots on target are both Europa League highs for the season, more than any other side, even top scorers Atletico Madrid. That is encouraging, as they can be relied on to at least get on the scoresheet to give themselves a chance here.
Bilbao bounced right back from their loss in Lisbon with a 1-0 win at Racing Santander. I am encouraged by the defence, because Sporting Lisbon have since also won, against Nacional, but their 3-2 score is worrying because it puts a question mark over their defence for this key game away from home. Bear in mind, Sporting Lisbon have only won 2 of their last 11 matches against Spanish opposition, and when they have travelled away to face a Spanish side, they have never won in 12 attempts, losing 9 of those matches.
Even in the last couple of seasons, Sporting Lisbon have not been great when travelling for European matches, not just against Spaniards. Their last 13 away games have seen them lose 7 and win just 2 matches. How does that match up against Bilbao? Well, the home side have won 21 of their last 30 home games in Europe, losing just twice, and they are unbeaten over their last 7 here.
I think Athletic Bilbao have the ability to score a couple here and win. With 25 goals, they are the 2nd highest scorers still left in the competion and have 6 more than Sporting. They have won every home game they have ever played against Portugese opposition, but even more relevant that that little space-filling tidbit is the fact Sporting have won just 1 of of their last 10 away games in Europe.
BETTING VERDICT
Stats show Sporting Lisbon commit more fouls than any other team this season. They've racked up 240 so far, and you've got to think there is a chance they give away a penalty in this game. We've seen penalties given in both Champions League semi-finals, so why not here? Bilbao are at home, they're Spanish, and they trail by 1 goal too! I love the 5.50 we can get on Bilbao to score from the spot in this one, and that shall be my small, fun official bet.
Yes, there is a safe bet too. Take Bilbao -1 on the AH because they will surely win here, and if it's just by 1 goal you get your money back. Now go away.
The Pick :
Athletic BIlbao to win and qualify
BEST BETTING TIP :
MAIN BET:Take Athletic Bilbao to score a penalty @ 5.50 (Bet365)
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Athletic Bilbao -1AH @ 2.02 (Ladbrokes)
