English Premier
2012-05-06 - Aston Villa vs Tottenham
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
Football : English : Premier League
Sunday, May 6th, 2012, 2:00PM GMT
PREVIEW
I wish something else would happen but I fear Spurs are most likely to come and beat Aston Villa, as the midlands side have looked rubbish in recent games. Villa are on an 8 game run without a win now, and the only team that has done worse is relegated Wolverhampton. No team has dropped more points than Aston Villa have when in a winning position. Villa have blown 20 points this term. Tottenham may very well have turned a corner, following the news that they get to keep their twitchy manager after all.
Aston Villa have lost their last 3 Premier League games against Tottenham, conceding 2 goals in each match. They have also scored just 1 goal through their last 4 matches, picking up just 2 points. Tottenham have begun to correct things (although it may well prove too late), but the 2-0 win over Blackburn, and the convincing 4-1 thrashing of Bolton has helped pull them to within 1 point of Arsenal, who occupy the 3rd place Tottenham had been bragging about for most of the season.
Aston Villa have conceded a league-high 46% of goals from set pieces this season, making them very vulnerable to Spurs, who suddenly have Modric, Adebayor and Vaart all looking very sharp and dangerous. Emmanuel Adebayor has a great record against Villa, scoring 5 goals and making 4 assists in just 8 meetings with the Villains. If you like goalscorer punts, look no further than the man on loan from Man City.
It's clear to me Tottenham will win, and the price on Spurs is generous considering both teams current form. Tottenham were a similar price at Bolton and they absolutely thrashed them. I think we should look at the AH markets for a better price. Aston Villa just do not seem to be able to score. Since Darren Bent went down they have looked useless, and Tottenham have a damn good chance at winning this one to nil. That's a high priced bet, so we won't bother now. What it does mean though is that Tottenham can clear the small starts they are giving up on the AH.
BETTING VERDICT
I'll stick my neck out and go for a Tottenham win by at least 2 goals. We get our money back if they just win by the 1 goal.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Tottenham
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Tottenham -1AH @ 2.61 (Pinnacle)
