Champions League
2012-09-19 - Chelsea vs Juventus
A Sports Betting Pick by ROzsolt
Football : Champions League group stages
Venue: Stamford Bridge, London (ENG)
Wednesday 19th September – Kickoff time: 20:45 GMT+1
Chelsea
Chelsea will by trying to do something that’s never been done, defend their UCL title, but things can get tricky from the very beginning with the Blues being drawn against two top sides, Shakhtar and Juventus.
However, stats are promising for Chelsea, they have finished as group winners in seven of their last nine campaigns, qualifying for the knockout rounds as runners-up in the other two years.
Furthermore, the London based club usually starts their UCL campaign with a win, last season’s 2-0 home win over Leverkusen was their eight success in ten matchday one fixtures.
Chelsea also has a good record against Italian opponents, they have won five and drawn one of their eight home games against Seria A clubs, including a 2011/12 round of 16 victory over Napoli (4-1).
Ashley Cole and John Terry should be fit to play after shaking off some injuries and Mata could also feature after missing out on the weekend’s game against QPR.
Juventus
Juventus returns to the UCL after a two years absence, but now they look stronger than ever after a fantastic run in Seria A last season.
The Bianconeri’s great form seems to continue, they have a perfect record in Serie A after three games and they’ve now reached 42 matches without a defeat (stretching back to the end of the 2010/11 season), an incredible number.
However, their record in England is not promising at all, they have not won on their last 11 competitive games on English soil, losing eight and drawing three.
Vucinic, Lichtsteiner and Asamoah were all rested against Genoa but should return to the starting line-up, a decision that shows how important the return to the CL is for Juventus.
The Betting Verdict
Chelsea seems to hold the upper hand before this game, statistic wise that is, having won all six of their Champions League home games last season and they’ve also triumphed in the sides last meeting, claiming a 3-2 aggregate victory.
However, and this is a big however, Juventus’ previous stats cannot be a decisive factor when betting on this game, this current squad of theirs is extremely balanced, Antonio Conte seems to have found the perfect mix of young talents and experienced players to make a great team out of Juve.
These two would probably be happy to share a point even if Shakhtar could pose a real threat in this group, but I can’t see any of these two being too adventurous in the first game of the group.
To give an example of how important not losing the first game is, we all saw Mourinho starting the game against City with three defensive midfielders despite playing at home and the goals only started coming when he decided to replace Essien with Ozil after conceding the first goal.
Both have strong defenses, it will be difficult for either one to find the way to the goal despite having a lot of quality in front, so in my opinion there will be a fierce battle for the ball in the midfield, without lots of goal attempts. Of course, that could always change in case of an early goal.
As I said the most probable outcome is a low scoring draw, but I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the two would edge this by one goal, so 1-0 or 0-1 is always a possibility.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Chelsea 1-0 Juventus
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Under 2.25 goals at 2.07 at PinnacleConfidence: 5/10
