Champions League
2013-04-30 - Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund
A Sports Betting Pick by ROzsolt
Football : UEFA Champions League: Semi Finals
Venue: "Santiago Bernabeu", Madrid
Tuesday 30th April – Kickoff time: 20:45 GMT+1
Real Madrid
Real Madrid haven’t reached an UEFA Champions League final since 2002 and it seems like they won’t get there in 2013 either after suffering a heavy defeat in the first leg of this tie (4-1).
Cristiano Ronaldo’s first half equalizer in Dortmund put Real Madrid in the leading seat of the tie, but a dominant second half performance from Borussia lead by an inspired Robert Lewandowski allowed them to put three goals past Real.
Real Madrid holds a solid W18 D4 L2 record against Bundesliga opponents and are also unbeaten at the Santiago Bernabeu this term having won three and drawn two, but they’ll need to score at least three times to overcame the first leg deficit.
Last season the Spanish giants beat Bayern Munich in Madrid in the same stage of the competition, but lost the tie at penalties. Real Madrid were unable to get the better of Borussia earlier in the group stages in a match that ended in a draw.
We should see two changes in Mourinho’s starting line-up, Pepe will probably drop to the bench as Arbeloa is back after serving a one match ban and Angel Di Maria who came in as a substitute in Dortmund should be in the first eleven.
Borussia Dortmund
After scoring two added time goals against Malaga in the quarter finals to reach this stage of the competition, Borussia Dortmund thrilled their superb fans once again in a historical 4-1 win over Spanish giants Real Madrid.
In the probable event they’ll manage to defend their lead at the Santiago Bernabeu, Borussia Dortmund will reach their second European Cup final.
Dortmund are unbeaten on their travels in this seasons’ competition, with one victory and four draws. One of those draws was obtained at the Santiago Bernabeu in the group stages, when the Germans led 2-1 until Mesut Ozil’s 89th minute equalizer.
Jurgen Klopp rested most of his regulars against Dusseldorf at the weekend, but he should name the same team that won in the first leg. The only doubt is Lukasz Piszczek’s who’s been struggling with a groin problem.
The Betting Verdict
After the 4-1 first leg victory and their impressive record in the competition so far, this should only be a formality for Borussia Dortmund, but if there is a team that can overturn a deficit like this that’s Real Madrid.
However, the last team to overturn such a deficit was Deportivo La Coruna against AC Milan back in 2004, which means that Madrid’s fans should not be too hopeful.
It’s not that Real Madrid wouldn’t have the quality to score three or four times, but outscoring a team that seems physically perfect (they give the impression that they could run at the same intensity for 180 minutes) and can counter attack at such speed is highly unlikely.
I think Real Madrid are good for the win though, they’ll want to redeem themselves after the dreadful second half performance from Dortmund and playing at the Santiago Bernabeu always gives them extra incentive and strength.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Real Madrid 2-1 Borussia Dortmund
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Real Madrid to win and over 2.5 goals to be scored at 2.07 at BetssonConfidence: 7/10
