Feb 20-21st : 9-man Inter Milan held by Sampdoria but still lead Serie A

Inter Milan 0-0 Sampdoria

Leaders Inter Milan had Walter Samuel and Ivan Cordoba sent off in a bad-tempered goalless draw with Sampdoria at the San Siro.

Inter found themselves down to nine men with 52 minutes to play following the dismissals of Samuel and Cordoba, while referee Paolo Tagliavento also sent off Sampdoria's Giampaolo Pazzini midway through the second half.

Despite the numerical advantage, Samp could not find their way past a resilient Inter side who secured Mourinho's 130th home league match without defeat, stretching across spells with Porto, Chelsea and Inter.

AS Roma 1-0 Catania

Mirko Vucinic's first-half goal earned Roma a 1-0 win at home to Catania on Sunday and moved them to within five points of Serie A leaders Inter Milan.

The Montenegrin scored in the 18th minute as the Giallorossi won for the seventh game running in the league.

Bari 0-2 AC Milan

AC Milan, who have a game in hand on the top two, are two points further back after a 2-0 win at Bari.

Marco Borriello opened the scoring two minutes before the break and Alexandre Pato doubled the advantage in the 69th minute as Leonardo's side bounced back from their Champions League defeat to Manchester United in midweek.

Bologna 1-2 Juventus

Goals from Diego and Antonio Candreva gave Juventus back-to-back league wins for the first time since November with a 2-1 success at Bologna.

Diego's early goal for the Old Lady was cancelled out in the 50th minute by Antonio Busce before substitute Candreva sealed the points midway through the second half to continue Juve's improvement under Alberto Zaccheroni.

Palermo 3-1 Lazio

Palermo claimed a 3-1 win at home to Lazio to move up to fifth - level on points with Napoli and Sampdoria in sixth and seventh.

Abel Hernandez opened the scoring within a minute, Fabrizio Miccoli added a second from the spot midway through the first half and Antonio Nocerino made it 3-0 after 75 minutes.

Aleksandar Kolarov pulled one back three minutes later for struggling Lazio, but it was no more than a consolation.

Italian Serie A Top Six Standings

Team        Pl  W  D L Fr Ag Pts 
Inter Milan 25 16  7 2 49 20  55 
AS Roma     25 15  5 5 43 27  50 
AC Milan    24 14  6 4 41 24  48 
Juventus    25 12  5 8 40 33  41 
Palermo     25 11  7 7 35 31  40 
Napoli      25 10 10 5 32 30  40

Stumble It!

Feb 12th-14th : Napoli hold Inter Milan but Inter are still 7 points clear

A round-up of the top action in Italy this weekend.

Napoli 0-0 Inter Milan

Leaders Inter Milan were held to a goalless draw by Napoli, meaning their lead at the end of the weekend stands at seven points over Roma.

Hosts Napoli had enough chances to win several games and struck the woodwork twice - via Marek Hamsik and Fabio Quagliarella - on a frustrating night against the defending champions.

Inter also hit the frame of the goal through Sulley Muntari and improved in the second half to claim a point.

As a result of their point, Napoli move back up to fourth and keep their hopes of qualifying for next season's Champions League alive.

AS Roma 4-1 Palermo

On Saturday, Roma moved back up to second place in the table with an emphatic 4-1 victory over Palermo.

Having dropped down the standings after AC Milan beat Udinese on Friday night, Roma wasted no time in taking second spot back.

A Cesare Bovo own goal in the 33rd minute set them on their way to victory with a scoreline that was far more convincing than their performance at the Stadio Olimpico.

Julio Baptista added the second in the 53rd minute before Matteo Brighi got his name on the scoresheet 10 minutes later.

Fabrizio Miccoli reduced the arrears with a dubious penalty in the 80th minute but a stunning strike from John-Arne Riise three minutes later secured the win for Claudio Ranieri's in-form Giallorossi.

AC Milan 3-2 Udinese

Ronaldinho inspired AC Milan to a 3-2 victory over Udinese, warming them up for the visit of Manchester United in the Champions League on Tuesday with three more Serie A points.

Although the Brazilian did not put his own name on the scoresheet, he set up all three goals.

Klaas-Jan Huntelaar scored the first after seven minutes and substitute Alexandre Pato added the second five minutes before the break.

Antonio Floro Flores gave Udinese hope with a goal on the stroke of half-time before Huntelaar's second in the 57th minute restored the home side's two-goal advantage.

Antonio Di Natale pulled Udinese back into the game in the 86th minute, but they could not find an equaliser.

Sampdoria 2-0 Fiorentina

Sampdoria gabbed their fourth win as they downed an out-of-sorts Fiorentina 2-0.

Franco Semioli put the Blucerchiati on their way to victory in the 16th minute and Giampaolo Pazzini sealed the win in the 40th minute with his first goal against his former club.

Fiorentina are languishing in 11th position and struggling for form ahead of a testing Champions League tie against Bayern Munich on Wednesday.

Juventus 3-2 Genoa

A disputed penalty allowed Juventus to win their first game under coach Alberto Zaccheroni as they came from behind to earn a 3-2 victory against Genoa.

Genoa went ahead with a goal from captain Marco Rossi in the 16th minute, but Amauri brought the Bianconeri level shortly before the break.

Alessandro Del Piero put the home team in front after an hour, but Rossi struck back immediately with an equaliser Genoa more than deserved.

However, the game was decided in the 78th minute by a penalty earned and converted by Del Piero, although doubts remain whether it should have been a spot-kick in the first place.

Italian Serie A Top Six Standings

Team        Pl  W D L Fr Ag Pts 
Inter Milan 24 16-6-2 49:20  54 
Roma        24 14-5-5 42:27  47 
AC Milan    23 13-6-4 39:24  45 
Napoli      24 10-9-5 32:27  39 
Sampdoria   24 11-6-7 32:31  39 
Juventus    24 11-5-8 38:32  38

Stumble It!

Feb 6-7th : Inter Milan in command on top of Italy Serie A

Inter Milan moved 10 points clear of city rivals AC Milan, and 8 clear at the top of Serie A with a convincing 3-0 victory against in-form Cagliari at the San Siro on Sunday.

Inter Milan 3-0 Cagliari

Winter signing Goran Pandev gave them the perfect start after five minutes' play with Argentinian duo Walter Samuel (20) and Diego Milito (47) wrapping the game up for Jose Mourinho's men.

The result ended a six-game unbeaten run for Massimiliano Allegri's Cagliari, denting their hopes of European qualification.

Bologna 0-0 AC Milan

AC Milan fell 10 points behind city rivals Inter after an uninspiring goalless draw at Bologna.

A win for Leonardo's men was key to their hopes of keeping the pressure on their great rivals in the race for the Scudetto.

But Milan's failure to find the back of the net - although they went very close hitting the woodwork twice - means athat Milan slip back to 3rd on the table.

Fiorentina 0-1 AS Roma

Roma to move second in the table as Mirko Vucinic got the only goal for the game in the 1-0 win at Fiorentina.

The Viola were left empty-handed after one of their most impressive performances of the last few months while Roma extended their excellent run of form to 12 Serie A games without defeat.

Udinese 3-1 Napoli

Antonio di Natale scored twice in injury-time to complete a hat-trick for Udinese in a 3-1 victory against previously in-form Napoli.

Di Natale punished his hometown club, who had goalscorer Christian Maggio sent off just before half-time, to give the Bianconeri a first win in eight Serie A contests.

It provided Gianni De Biasi with a first victory since he took charge on December 22, easing the club's relegation fears and enabling them to put behind them the misery of the midweek Coppa Italia semi-final defeat to Roma.

Serie A Top Eight Team Standings

Team        Pl  W D L Fr Ag Pts 
Inter Milan 22 16-4-2 48:19  52 
Roma        23 13-5-5 38:26  44 
AC Milan    22 12-6-4 36:22  42 
Napoli      23 10-8-5 32:27  38 
Palermo     23 10-7-6 31:26  37 
Sampdoria   23 10-6-7 30:31  36 
Juventus    23 10-5-8 35:30  35 
Genoa       23 10-5-8 36:36  35 

Stumble It!

30-31st Jan : Round-up Of Italy Serie A results

Parma P-P Inter Milan

Inter Milan's match at Parma was postponed due to snow, and has been re-scheduled for February 10th.

AC Milan 1-1 Livorno

AC Milan missed the chance to close the gap on Serie A leaders Inter Milan to six points as they were held to a 1-1 draw by relegation-threatened Livorno on Sunday.

Massimo Ambrosini opened the scoring for Milan in the final minute of the first half but Livorno levelled eight minutes after the break thanks to Cristiano Lucarelli.

Juventus 1-1 Lazio

New Juventus boss Alberto Zaccheroni had to settle for a point at Turin's Stadio Olimpico in his first match in charge as they played out a 1-1 draw with Lazio.

The former Lazio manager saw his team take the lead through Alessandro Del Piero's 70th-minute penalty. However, that was as good as it got for Juve as Stefano Mauri grabbed the equaliser eight minutes later by volleying home a cross from Mauro Zarate.

The result lifted the Turin outfit to fifth in the standings, and leaves Lazio two points clear of the drop zone.

Napoli 0-0 Genoa

On Saturday Napoli were held to a 0-0 draw at the Stadio San Paolo by their bogey team Genoa.

Napoli have not beaten Genoa since both sides returned to the top flight of Italian football two-and-a-half years ago, while their last home victory over the Ligurians dates back over a decade to when the clubs were in Serie B.

Bari 4-2 Palermo

Bari defeated 10-man Palermo 4-2 at the Stadio San Nicola.

Leonardo Bonucci and Edgar Alvarez gave the hosts a two-goal lead within the first seven minutes, but strikes from Edison Cavani and Javier Pastore either side of half-time brought Palermo level.

A red card shown to midfielder Fabio Liverani in the 56th minute tipped the scales back in Bari's favour before a penalty from Paulo Barreto and a fourth goal from Vladimir Koman earned them all three points to get them back in the reckoning for a place in Europe next season.

Italian Serie A Top Six Standings

Team        Pl  W D L Fr Ag Pts 
Inter Milan 21 15-4-2 45 19 49 
AC Milan    21 12-5-4 36 22 41 
AS Roma     22 12-5-5 37 26 41 
Napoli      22 10-8-4 31 24 38 
Juventus    22 10-4-8 34 29 34 
Palermo     22  9-7-6 29 25 34

Stumble It!

23-24 Jan : Weekend wrap-up of Italian Serie A

Inter Milan 2-0 AC Milan

Nine-man Inter Milan moved nine points clear of city rivals AC Milan at the top of Serie A thanks to a 2-0 win at the San Siro on Sunday.

Diego Milito gave the Nerazzurri the lead in the 10th minute, but they were forced to play over two-thirds of the game with 10 men after Wesley Sneijder was sent off.

Goran Pandev's 65th-minute strike secured the points for Jose Mourinho's side, who lost Lucio to a red card in stoppage time before Ronaldinho saw his penalty saved at the end of a dramatic derby.

Juventus 1-2 AS Roma

On Saturday former Juventus coach Claudio Ranieri returned to haunt his old club and pile the misery on his successor Ciro Ferrara as Roma ran out 2-1 winners at the Stadio Olimpico.

Alessandro Del Piero gave the home side the lead with a fine goal in the 51st minute, but Francesco Totti equalised from the penalty spot in the 68th minute.

Juve lost goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon to a red card in the 83rd minute before John Arne Riise clinched the points for Roma deep in stoppage time.

Livorno 0-2 Napoli

Christian Maggio put Napoli ahead before the interval and Luca Cigarini made sure of the points in stoppage time, moments after Livorno goalkeeper Alfonso De Lucia was sent off.

Serse Cosmi stepped down as coach of Livorno following his team's defeat.

Palermo 3-0 Fiorentina

Abel Hernandez scored twice in the first half as Palermo enhanced their European chances with a comfortable 3-0 win over Fiorentina.

An Igor Budan strike just before the hour mark completed the scoring for Palermo who maintained their unbeaten home record to move up to fifth in the table.

Italian Serie A Top Six Teams

Team        Pl  W D L  Fr Ag Pts 
Inter Milan 21 15-4-2  45:19  49 
AC Milan    20 12-4-4  35:21  40 
AS Roma     21 11-5-5  35:25  38 
Napoli      21 10-7-4  31:24  37 
Palermo     21  9-7-5  27:21  34 
Juventus    21 10-3-8  33:28  33

Stumble It!

Milan romp to 4-0 win over Siena to close the gap on Inter to 6 points

Ronaldinho netted a hat-trick as AC Milan eased to a 4-0 victory over bottom club Siena and cut Inter Milan's lead at the top of Serie A to six points.

AC Milan 4-0 Siena
Ronaldinho struck a first-half penalty, a second-half header and a long-range shot late on after Marco Borriello had hit the Rossoneri's second.

Siena's efforts to kick-start a dismal season were undermined by the 10th-minute dismissal of goalkeeper Gianluca Curci, which led to Ronaldinho's opening spot-kick as Leonardo's side cut Inter's lead after their 2-2 draw at Bari on Saturday.

AS Roma 3-0 Genoa
Luca Toni bagged his first goals since joining the Roma on loan from Bayern Munich this month, scoring on the stroke of half-time after team-mate Simone Perrotta had put Roma ahead in the 17th minute.

And Toni put the game beyond Genoa's reach on the hour mark to put the capital city club into 3rd spot.

Napoli 0-0 Palermo
Napoli drew 0-0 with Palermo in Naples in a dour game that had few real moments of danger after Fabrizio Miccoli missed a first half penalty for the visitors.

Chievo 1-0 Juventus
Juventus slipped to fifth in the standings after the Turin giants lost 1-0 at Chievo.

Gennaro Sardo's stunning first-half strike proved to be the only goal of the game as Juve turned in a performance lacking energy and confidence which comes on the back of a 3-0 hammering at the hands of AC Milan in their last league outing.

Serie A TOP SIX STANDINGS

CLUB        Pl  W D L  GD Pts 
Inter Milan 20 14-4-2 +24  46 
AC Milan    19 12-4-3 +16  40 
AS Roma     20 10-5-5  +9  35 
Napoli      20  9-7-4  +5  34 
Juventus    20 10-3-7  +6  33 
Palermo     20  8-7-5  +3  31 

Stumble It!

AC Milan beat Juventus 3-0 in Turin to keep in touch with Inter

The Serie A Scudetto will be a race between Inter Milan and AC Milan after AC Milan won 3-0 away at Juventus to keep the pressure on Serie A table-toppers and city rivals Inter Milan.

Alessandro Nesta put Milan ahead in the 29th minute with Ronaldinho adding a second in the 72nd minute as Juve struggled to produce a performance that would ease the calls for Ferrara's head.

Another goal from Ronaldinho two minutes from time came amid protests from the home fans, who shrouded the field with smoke by burning any item possible, and sealed the win for Milan - now eight points behind Inter with a game in hand.

Napoli beat Sampdoria 1-0 to remain in 4th, and in the race for Champions League football after substitute German Denis came off the bench to score the winner against Sampdoria on Sunday.

On Saturday night Inter Milan twice came from behind to claim a thrilling 4-3 victory over Siena as Wesley Sneijder and Walter Samuel scored late goals in the top-versus-bottom clash at the San Siro.

And a first-minute goal from Daniele De Rossi was enough to give 10-man Roma a 1-0 victory over Chievo which moves them up to fifth in the table.

Rossi headed in from a corner to give the hosts the lead at the Stadio Olimpico, but they had goalkeeper Doni sent off after he handled the ball outside the area after coming out as Elvis Abbruscato charged through on goal.

CLUB        Pl  W D L  GD Pts 
Inter Milan 19 14-3-2 +24  45 
AC Milan    18 11-4-3 +12  37 
Juventus    19 10-3-6  +7  33 
Napoli      19  9-6-4  +5  33 
AS Roma     19  9-5-5  +6  32 
Fiorentina  18  9-3-6  +8  30

Stumble It!

Juventus beat inter Milan 2-1 while AC Milan thrash Sampdoria 3-0

Juve beat leaders Inter 2-1 as Mourinho sent off
Claudio Marchisio scored a superb goal gave 10-man Juventus a 2-1 win over leaders Inter Milan in an enthralling game on Saturday.

Italy midfielder Marchisio danced past Walter Samuel and chipped the ball over Inter goalkeeper Julio Cesar just before the hour mark to inflict Inter’s second league defeat this term.

Juventus took the lead after 20 minutes when Diego's free kick was headed on by Giorgio Chiellini and the ball deflected in off Inter's Lucio.

Inter manager Jose Mourinho sarcastically applauded the referee after the goal for awarding the free kick and was immediately sent to the stands by the referee.

Inter Milan equalised after 26 minutes when a Dejan Stankovic’s cross was headed in by an unmarked Samuel Eto'o.

Second-placed Milan overpower Sampdoria 3-0
AC Milan scored three goals in the first 23 minutes to seal an easy victory over Sampdoria.

Ronaldinho set up the first two goals but then went off with a minor hamstring strain with one eye on Tuesday's Champions League clash at FC Zurich, where a win will put Milan through.

Striker Marco Borriello headed in the Brazilian's cross after just two minutes for his fourth league goal of the season.

Ronaldinho, playing on the left of a new three-man attack, then laid the ball off for midfielder Clarence Seedorf score just inside the box after 21 minutes.

Alexandre Pato scored soon after to secure a fifth straight league win for Leonardo’s side, who have recovered from a shaky start to the campaign.

Stumble It!

FIFA 2010 World Cup Final Draw for South Africa Completed

England have been drawn to face the United States, Algeria and Slovenia in the group stage of the 2010 World Cup in South Africa.

Five-time champions Brazil face Portugal, Ivory Coast and North Korea in arguably the strongest group.

Holders Italy were drawn with Slovakia, Paraguay and New Zealand and and three-time winners Germany will take on Serbia, Ghana and Australia.

FULL WORLD CUP 2010 GROUP STAGE DRAW

GROUP A
A1 SOUTH AFRICA
A2 MEXICO
A3 URUGUAY
A4 FRANCE

GROUP B
B1 ARGENTINA
B2 NIGERIA
B3 SOUTH KOREA
B4 GREECE

GROUP C
C1 ENGLAND
C2 USA
C3 ALGERIA
C4 SLOVENIA

GROUP D
D1 GERMANY
D2 AUSTRALIA
D3 SERBIA
D4 GHANA

GROUP E
E1 NETHERLANDS
E2 DENMARK
E3 JAPAN
E4 CAMEROON

GROUP F
F1 ITALY
F2 PARAGUAY
F3 NEW ZEALAND
F4 SLOVAKIA

GROUP G
G1 BRAZIL
G2 NORTH KOREA
G3 IVORY COAST
G4 PORTUGAL

GROUP H
H1 SPAIN
H2 SWITZERLAND
H3 HONDURAS
H4 CHILE

Stumble It!

David Trezeguet decides to stay at Juventus

David Trezeguet has decided to stay at Juventus, at least until the end of the 2009/10 season.

The 31-year-old French striker has attracted interest from Italian clubs AC Milan and Roma, although Juve recently said they would only be prepared to sell him to a club outside of Serie A.

Trezeguet is quote on Juventus's official website: "I am definitely staying at Juventus for the whole season. After ten years in Turin I don't think it's right to leave now.

"At the back of this decision is the decisive support of those who backed me in the recent period - that is, the management, the coach, my mates and the supporters."

Trezeguet is under contract with the Bianconeri until 2011.

Stumble It!

INTER MILAN TARGET CHELSEA DUO DECO AND CARVALHO

FOOTBALL: Inter Milan have confirmed their intention to sign Deco and Ricardo Carvalho from Chelsea.

Both players have been linked with a move away from Stamford Bridge this summer.

"(Inter coach Jose) Mourinho has asked us for Deco and Carvalho and we are working towards making him happy," said Inter Milan president Massimo Moratti in an interview with Gazzetta dello Sport.

"Our wish is to sign both players and I have seen that the players' intention is to join us. We still haven't reached an agreement with Chelsea but I think we will do in a short time."

Carvalho, who moved to Chelsea in 2004, endured a frustrating campaign with the Blues. Injury restricted the 31-year-old to just 18 appearances this season.

Deco joined Chelsea from Barcelona last summer but the 32-year-old also suffered injuries, making just 22 league appearances this campaign.

Stumble It!

KAKA COMPLETES REAL MADRID MOVE

FOOTBALL: Real Madrid have completed the signing of Kaka from AC Milan on a six-year contract.

The Spanish giants confirmed the eagerly-awaited capture of the 27-year-old Brazilian superstar in a brief statement on their website late on Monday night.

Kaka, currently on international duty with Brazil in his homeland, underwent a medical in Recife earlier on Monday before putting pen to paper on a six-year deal.

The transfer fee is expected to be new world record at around £56million, eclipsing the £48million Real paid Juventus for Zinedine Zidane in the summer of 2001.

Stumble It!

Madrid and Turin derby matches centre stage this Saturday

Real Madrid are trying to make makes el Derbi Madrileno their 11th successive league win in the Primera this weekend.

Real Madrid host Atletico Madrid, well aware that Atletico devlivered a heavy blow to title rivals Barcelona last weekend, with a 4-3 stunning victory that cut Barca's lead at the top to a mere four points.

The two city rivals meet on Saturday at Santiago Bernabeu.

RELATED LINKS :
Real Madrid 1.79 at Globet, Atletico Madrid 5.10 at PinnacleSports
See all the Live Spanish football betting Odds at Bookielabrat.

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Serie A will share the derby spotlight over the week-end, when Juventus will face historic rivals FC Torino.

The Old Lady will need every win they can get, to close the seven-point gap that separates them from league leaders Inter Milan.

But Torino's run of five matches without defeat may spell trouble for Claudio Ranieri's men, who are also preparing for Chelsea's Champions League visit next week.

Expect plenty of tension at the Stadio Olimpico on Saturday evening.

RELATED LINKS :
Torino 3.49 at PinnacleSports, Juventus 2.35 at Centrebet,
See all the Live Italian football betting Odds at Bookielabrat.

Stumble It!

Round 13 : Inter Milan clear at top of Serie A

AC Milan were held 2-2 at Torino on Sunday, leaving city rivals Inter Milan three points clear at the top of Serie A.

Torino's Alessandro Rosina scored a 78th-minute penalty, which was conceded for handball by Kakha Kaladze, to earn the hosts a draw.

Napoli are 3rd with Juventus on 24 points after being held 2-2 at home by Cagliari earlier on Sunday. Daniele Conti scored a stoppage-time equaliser for the Sardinian side after Ezequiel Lavezzi thought he had won it for Napoli with a superb late free kick.

Lazio are fifth after grabbing a 1-1 home draw with Genoa thanks to Ousmane Dabo's powerful strike that slipped through keeper Rubinho's hands 10 minutes from time.

Fiorentina round out the top six after they beat visitors Udinese 4-2 on Saturday.

AS Roma continued their return to form after a miserable start to the season with a 3-0 win at Lecce courtesy of first-half goals by Mirko Vucinic and Juan plus captain Francesco Totti's delightful chip four minutes after the break. Roma are in 15th spot.

Stumble It!

Inter Milan top of Serie A table after late goals

Julio Cruz headed home in injury time to give Inter Milan a 1-0 home win over Udinese on Sunday and send the Serie A champions top of the table.


AC Milan, a point behind Inter on 23, were held 1-1 at Lecce in the late game after conceding a late equaliser.

Napoli beat Sampdoria 2-0 to be on the same points as Milan while Lazio defeated Siena 3-0 at home thanks to a brace by Tommaso Rocchi and Mauro Zarate's goal.

Alessandro Del Piero celebrated his 34th birthday by scoring a third free kick in a week to help Juventus to a 2-0 win at lowly Chievo which puts them level with Udinese on 21 points.

Genoa are a point further behind in an extremely tight top half of Serie A after Diego Milito's hat-trick sealed a 4-0 home victory over bottom side Reggina.

Fiorentina are also on 20 points following a 2-1 triumph over Atalanta.

Stumble It!

How did your weekend punts go then?

The new season for Italy and Spain brought some "surprise results" with Real Madrid, Barcelona and AC Milan all losing, and several other name sides all failing to win.

In England, we saw Everton lose at home again, Chelsea held to a draw, and Manchester City win 3-0 at Sunderland. Many punters on the forum seem to be counting the cost of a tough betting weekend ...

But why? Were all those results really so unexpected? It's a tough way to make a profit if you go exclusively on home "bankers" - so you've really gotta chase the value too.

Everyone can see who is favoured - including the bookmakers - and those "big name" teams are usually priced so as to make a loss over the course of a season.

Personally, I'm happy enough with the weekend results. I put nine picks on the main site and they went 5-4 (including 3 draws from 4) for a tasty +44% yield on level stakes.

I still missed on AS Roma, and I'm annoyed with the Chelsea v Spurs game as I did highlight the DRAW as good value - but still tipped the home win.

And I also got Everton v Portsmouth all wrong ...

But draws in Villa v Liverpool, Fiorentina v Juve and Sampdoria v Inter Milan were good as was the Arsenal win and Overs in Middlesbrough v Stoke.

A mix of value betting the DRAW, and higher priced home wins did prove to be a useful buffer against the shock results.

Now - let's see if we can find some in the weekend internationals eh?

Stumble It!

Ronaldinho lands in Milan - PR hype hits

Brazil star Ronaldinho has been unveiled to fans and the media at the San Siro stadium after completing his move from Barcelona to AC Milan.

The 28-year-old insisted he was fully fit despite concerns about his lifestyle and attitude in Spain.

"I have always lived a regular life and I will continue like that. I am in good physical condition" he said. "Every player dreams of playing for Milan. It is a special emotion and I hope to bring happiness to the fans."

Thousands of fans turned up at the stadium to welcome Ronaldinho to the club, with the San Siro nearly half full.

"I already feel at home here" he added - although unfortunately he was speaking in Portuguese and not Italian.

The fact that Barcelona sold the overweight Ronaldinho at a cut price fee, that Ronaldinho only wanted to move to a club that would let him play for Brazil in the Olympic football tournament, and that AC Milan are not in the Champions League this season were not discussed.

Milan need to reinvigorate the side with youth, energy and desire ... and instead they buy Ronaldinho?! Too old, too fat, and too jaded after a very successful career.

Can you see this all ending in tears in 12-18 months? Me too.

Stumble It!

Ronaldinho to join AC Milan

AC Milan have beaten Manchester City in the race to sign Barcelona playmaker Ronaldinho after revealing they have reached an agreement in principle on a three-year deal for the Brazilian.

The Serie A club made the announcement on their official website following a day of talks between Barca president Joan Laporta and Milan vice-president Adriano Galliani in the Catalan capital.

The financial terms of the agreement have not been revealed but City's interest almost certainly pushed up the final fee.

Transfer talks between Barca and Milan reportedly stalled earlier this week, with the Italian club only willing to pay £11.9million plus up to around £4million in add-ons - £7.9million less than Barca were demanding.

But the Rossoneri are understood to have increased their bid by around £4million after City were reportedly waiting with a bid of £27.8million.

The Italian club confirmed that the formal completion of the deal now hinged only on the Brazil international successfully completing a medical.

"AC Milan and FC Barcelona have reached a principle agreement for the transfer of Ronaldinho to the Rossoneri," read a short statement on Milan's official website on Tuesday. "The player will be in Milan tomorrow (Wednesday) to undergo the medical examinations and sign the contract that will bind to Milan until June 30, 2011."

Stumble It!

Holland beat Italy 3-0 - was the referee right?

Holland beat Italy 3-0 last night - scoring twice in five minutes in the first half - and scoring a killer goal late in the second half.

Many of the newspaper reports today are saying that the Dutch took advantage of a "referee mistake" to score the opening goal from an offside position - but I'm not so sure.

A possible explanation for the referee's decision was that Christian Panucci, who had collided with Buffon seconds earlier and was off the pitch, was adjudged to be playing Van Nistelrooy onside.

By the letter of the law Fifa rule 11 "If a defending player steps behind his own goal line in order to place an opponent in an offside position, the referee shall allow play to continue and caution the defender for deliberately leaving the field of play without the referee's permission when the ball is next out of play."

(see FIFA Laws of the game )

This is to prevent a situation where defenders stationed on the goalposts could possibly just "walk off" behind the goal - and without this rule the attackers could be caught offside.

By going over the back of the goal line - is Panucci considered to be on the goal line while the referee allows play to continue and thus playing everyone onside?

I'm not SURE the rule was applied correctly and Panucci seemed oblivious to what was going on around him - but that's my take on how the situation was ruled.

It will be interesting to see what FIFA / UEFA have to say.

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Jose Mourinho moves in to Inter Milan job.

The former Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho has been confirmed as the new manager of Internazionale.

A press statement on the Inter Milan website read "The whole Internazionale organisation takes great pleasure in welcoming Jose Mourinho and his colleagues."

The Portuguese has signed a three-year contract with the Nerazzuri, and will work alongside his former Chelsea colleagues Rui Farias, Silvino Louro and Andre Vilas-Boas at the San Siro. Giuseppe Baresi, previously director of Inter's youth programmes, will be Mourinho's assistant.

As I revealed 6 days ago when writing about Roberto Mancini's departure, the shadow of Mourinho always loomed large over this job after it was apparent that neither of the Spanish giants wanted to try Mourinho's negative brand of football management.

The arrival of Mourinho at Inter is likely to increase the speculation over the future of several of his former Chelsea players, particularly Frank Lampard, Didier Drogba and Ricardo Carvalho.

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Mancini leaves Inter Milan - Mourinho to take over?

The agent of Roberto Mancini has indicated that his client is no longer the coach of Serie A outfit Internazionale, although an official announcement has yet to be made by the Italian champions.

Mancini looks to be on his way out of the club less than a fortnight after delivering the club's third consecutive Serie A title.

The 43-year-old's agent, Giorgio De Giorgis, indicated in an interview with Sportitalia television on Tuesday night that Mancini has left the club following a 25-minute meeting with Inter president Massimo Moratti earlier in the day.

The agent told Sportitalia television: "Roberto never expected it to end like this. Roberto is very disappointed also because he has not yet finished his job - he wanted to try and win even more league titles, and maybe even the Champions League."

Mancini has endured a turbulent season at the San Siro, tendering his resignation in the immediate aftermath of the club's Champions League elimination by Liverpool in March only to be talked into a rethink by Moratti.

De Giorgis also suggested that former Chelsea boss Jose Mourinho has been lined up as Mancini's replacement.

Reports in Italy suggest Mourinho arrived in Milan on Tuesday evening and may be presented as the club's new coach as early as Wednesday while Mancini has been linked with the Chelsea vacancy at Stamford Bridge.

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Inter Milan win Serie A title - AC Milan settle for UEFA Cup

Parma 0-2 Inter Milan

Inter Milan won Serie A following a 2-0 defeat of Parma thanks to two goals from Sweden international Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

Inter needed to match any result that rivals AS Roma achieved and an early Roma goal seemed to put Inter were under pressure as they struggled to break down Parma.

But Ibrahimovic's goal after 62 minutes regained the initiative and his second after 79 minutes made certain of a third straight league title.

---

Catania 1-1 AS Roma

Roma conceded a late equaliser as they drew 1-1 in Sicily, after hearing that Inter had won in Parma

The results saved Catania, who had looked like they would be relegated Roma when they allowed Mirko Vucinic to give the capital side an eighth-minute lead.

But the Sicilians earned the point which preserved their top flight status thanks to an 95th-minute goal from Jorge Martinez.

This late goal condemned both Parma and Empoli to relegation.

---

Torino 0-1 Fiorentina

Fiorentina claimed the fourth Champions League spot with a 1-0 win at Torino, thanks to a single goal in the 75th minute through Pablo Osvaldo's bicycle kick.

It was enough to prevserve Fiorentina's 2-point advantage over AC milan and secure 4th place.

---

AC Milan 4-1 Udinese

AC Milan did their best at the San Siro, beating Udinese 4-1, but multiple slip-ups earlier in the season were to prove costly.

The home side had actually fallen behind when Giandomenico Mesto put Udinese ahead in the 32nd minute. Alexandre Pato equalised three minutes into the second half and Filippo Inzaghi put Milan ahead after 59 minutes.

Goals from Cafu (79) and Clarence Seedorf (88) made sure of a win - but it had little effect on the final standings.

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Inter Milan held by Siena to send title race to final weekend

Inter Milan again missed the chance to retain their Serie A title when they were held 2-2 at home by Siena on Sunday with Marco Materazzi having a penalty saved.

Second-placed AS Roma beat Atalanta 2-1 to cut the gap to one point with one round of matches remaining next weekend.

Livorno were relegated after a 1-0 defeat at home to Torino.

Fiorentina beat relegation-threatened Parma 3-1 to move into fourth spot and the final Champions league qualifying place after AC Milan lost 3-1 at Napoli and now two points behind with a game left.

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Italy Silly Season - Fixes or Rumour

We are getting towards the end of the Serie A season - and relegation looms in Italy making the situation rife for plenty of rumours about match-fixing.

There were plenty of strange low value prices today - and plenty of high value in Serie A. Of course we're all aware that Parma won today at a very low price - and everyone has jumped on the fix bandwagon again - was that really the case?

Let's take a look at a selection of games in Italy, and work out what would have happened if you'd backed the "fix" or taken the value.

THE FIXES :
Parma v Genoa (1.48 - 8.00)
This was picked as a close game by the betting spreadsheet, but the fixers were sure that Parma would win and so the 1.48 price on the home side was very, very low - unexplainable in normal terms. Parma were 5-6-5 at home this season, Genoa 5-5-6 away.

Parma won 1-0 and the FIXERS claim a win but was a home win here really a big surprise?!

Torino V Napoli (1.40 - 10.00)
Torino in relegation trouble and Napoli very safely in midtable. Torino favoured slightly by the sheet at home (0.36 of a goal) mainly due to Napoli's woeful 3-4-11 away record.

However the 1.40 on Torino to win is about 56% of fair and surely this is another "fix"? Torino do 2-1 so the FIXERS WIN. But was it proof of corruption or a desperate home team?

Siena v Juventus (8.40 - 1.57)
Juventus in 3rd assumed to have referee backing and will win at Siena. The home side are priced at a staggering 227% of correct value as they are estimated to win this game 27% of the time by the sheet.

The result is that Siena win 1-0. FIXERS LOSE. Value punters win big.

Atlanta v Livorno (3.25 - 2.35)
Atlanta by far the better side, and rated 0.66 of a goal favourite by the sheet are somehow considered outsiders at home to bottom placed Livorno who will win via a fix?.

Atlanta win 3-2. FIXERS LOSE

---

There were two other games that did provide upsets of sorts - where they were away teams winning at prices over 4.00+ that never got a rumour of a "fix".

Looking at the form lines, it was very hard to pick the results, and based on the the price no-one seemed to suspect a fix. But the fact that they occured shows how results can vary in football especially at the tail end of a season.

Catania v Reggina (2.10 - 4.40)
A real relegation battle and lowly Reggina priced a low 53% of fair value. But Reggina grab a vital 2-1 away win at a 4.40 price - where were the fix rumours about this game then?

Lazio v Palermo (2.50 - 4.00)
Palermo came into the game 3 points ahead, but without a win in their last six away games. Lazio picked to win based on home form and cruised up 1-0 until the last 10 minutes when Palermo scored twice to win. A fix?

---

The upshot is that if you had beleive in the two successful fixes then you did win - and make profits on the home wins. Of course you'd have had to really lump on in order to make good money - and also avoid the Juventus game.

Lets say you believe so wager double stakes (200 euros) on each of the two correct "fixed" games then here is how the money falls :
= 400 euros bet / 580 euros returned and a profit of 180 euros.

A good profit. However if you'd simply backed the four value sides (Napoli, Genoa, Atlanta and Siena) at normal level stakes of 100 euros then :
= 400 euros bet and two wins for 1265 euros returned for a profit of 865 euros !!!

---

If every strange result is a fix - why did no-one seem to get on the upset wins for Reggina and Palermo who surprised at prices of over 4.00?

So are there fixes in Serie A that the public can get on? Or aew they simply wildfire internet rumours based on a few strange results?

I'm still not convinced.

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Fiorentina open Champions League door for AC Milan

Milan move two points behind fourth-placed Fiorentina - held 2-2 by Sampdoria - thanks to a Filippo Inzaghi hat-trick.

Livorno 1-4 AC Milan
AC Milan won 4-1 at Livorno a result which boosts the Rossoneri's Champions League hopes as it brings them to within two points of 4th placed Fiorentina.

Filippo Inzaghi opened the scoring in the 23rd minute, scored his second seven minutes into the second half and completed his treble seven minutes later.

Clarence Seedorf added a fourth in the 70th minute before Dario Knezevic pulled a goal back for the home side two minutes later.

Fiorentina 2-2 Sampdoria
Fiorentina trailed to Christian Maggio's 63rd-minute goal but must have thought they had beaten Samp when Christian Vieri levelled in the 77th minute and Adrian Mutu converted an 84th-minute penalty.

But Daniele Gastaldello's stoppage-time equaliser earned a point for the visitors.

Fiorentina looked a little tired, as they are still battling in the UEFA Cup and can claim a place in the UEFA Cup final if they beat Glasgow Rangers on Thursday.

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Roma keep Serie A title race alive - but Inter need just one more win.

Roma kept the Serie A title race alive for another week at least with a 4-1 thrashing of Torino.

Inter Milan 2-1 Cagliari
Leaders Internazionale won 2-1 at home to Cagliari, Inter's victory was comfortable as they led through Julio Cruz's 21st-minute strike and doubled their lead through second-half substitute Marco Materazzi in the 83rd minute.

Davide Biondini's stoppage-time effort for the visitors was just a consolation.

AS Roma 4-1 Torino
So defeat for Roma would have seen the Nerazzurri claim their second successive Scudetto. But the result was rarely in doubt after David Pizarro opened the scoring for Roma in the 18th minute from the penalty spot.

Mirko Vucinic doubled his team's lead two minutes later and Mancini made it 3-0 in the 25th minute and then netted his second shortly after the half-hour mark.

Substitute Nicola Ventola reduced the deficit five minutes after the interval but the visitors could not make further inroads, even after Roma defender Juan was sent off with 15 minutes left to play.

So Inter Milan can clinch the title next week in the Milan derby with a win.

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Betting Spreadsheet - Italy numbers up.

The Gooners Numb3rs (tm) spreadsheet for the 10 Serie A games this weekend is up and online with some interesting picks.

There are three "likely picks" for Roma, Fiorentina and Inter Milan this weekend as well as three "discovered value" selections as well.

The "fix" also appears to be in on the Siena v Genoa match - where the best price for the draw is as low as 2.05 (at Bet365) and only a handful of bookmakers currently offering a price on this game.

Good luck with your punting and be careful out there.

RELATED LINKS :
Gooners Numb3rs Spreadsheet for Italy Serie A
Live Betting Odds for Serie A from BookieLabRat.com
Football Match Previews for Serie A at GoonersGuide.com

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Serie A Shocks on Sunday

Substitute Daniel Pablo Osvaldo struck an added-time winner as Fiorentina moved a point behind Juventus with a 3-2 victory in Turin – their first away victory over the Bianconeri in two decades.

SSC Napoli also enjoyed a notable success as they became the first club to beat the champions FC Internazionale Milano in Serie A this term winning 1-0.

That leaves Inter Milan (61) leading by 6 points from AS Roma (55), with Juve (48) and Fiorentina (47) battling for the Champions League spots.

Perrenial powerhouse AC Milan are in 5th spot on 43 points are are starting to run the risk of missing out on a lucrative Champions League spot next season.

The full Serie A table is available on the main Italian page on the GoonersGuide.com site.

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Gooners Numb3rs - ISA Midweek Spreadsheet

There is a midweek round of the Italian Serie A and the spreadsheet numb3rs are out now.

See the spreadsheet output now.

There are 4 home winners and 1 away winner predicted.
All of them at 100% or greater value.

I bet those prices don't last long.

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GBL and ISA Betting Spreadsheet

With the FA Cup on in England this weekend it means that there are only two leagues covered by the "Gooners Numb3rs" (tm) betting spreadsheet.

(League stats are not used to predict cup games - sorry)

Gooners ISA Numb3rs - Italian Serie A
Has 3 likely home winners and one likely away winner. There is also one "value draw" pick - after they returned back to profit last weekend.

Gooners GBL Numb3ers - German Bundesliga
The Bundesliga is proving hard to make a profit on this season - it lost money again last weekend - but the sheet reckons that there are three likely home winners to check out this weekend.

Good luck with your bets.

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Betting Spreadsheet - online for weekend

It's pretty quiet this week so I've taken advantage of the time to get the "Gooners Numb3rs" (tm) betting spreadsheet done.

Gooners EPL Numb3rs - English Premier League
Has 4 likely home wins, and one likely away win (Spurs?!)

It also suggests a "value" draw on Saturday - and some value on taking Chelsea to win at Stamford Bridge against Liverpool on Sunday.

Gooners ISA Numb3rs - Italian Serie A
Has 3 likely home winners and one likely away winner.

There are two more value draw picks - although these are on a 0-4 run - so be a little careful with your stake size,

Gooners GBL Numb3ers - German Bundesliga
The Bundesliga is proving hard to make a profit on this season - but the sheet reckons that there are five likely home winners (at reasonable prices too) and a couple of discover value plays too.

Check it out.

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Football betting Prediction spreadsheets

The league betting spreadsheets have been processed and the outputs for the weekend of Jan 12th/13th are now up and online.

GOONERS NUMB3RS - EPL spreadsheet picks
A whole host of likely home winners (6 !!) are tipped in England and one away winner too. Can you pick who that might be (before taking a look) ?

GOONERS NUMB3RS - ISA Spreadsheet picks
It's much tighter in Italy - with one home win at a good price and one away win at a poor price.

The Italian DV-Draw system also has one pick too. It's gone 3-2 over the last five picks and is on a +33% yield over the course of this season - so it's well worth checking out.

There seem to be plenty of picks this weekend worth a shot - good luck with your bets - I hope that the statistical view helps you narrow down some good choices.

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AC Milan 4-2 Boca Juniors

Milan win FIFA World Club Championship

Finally we had a football game worth talking about at the "World Club Championships" as an aging Milan team overcame an out-of-season Boca Juniors side in the "final".

Filippo Inzaghi scored twice as AC Milan beat Boca Juniors to win the Club World Cup in Japan. Inzaghi struck after a Kaka pass on 21 minutes but Boca equalised a minute later through Rodrigo Palacio's header.

Alessandro Nesta's volley, Kaka's solo run and finish and Inzaghi's second - all in the space of 10 minutes - settled the match in Milan's favour.

Kakha Kaladze saw red, as did Boca's Pablo Ledesma, while Milan's Massimo Ambrosini scored an own goal.

So well done and congratulations to AC Milan - who learned that Paulo Maldini will be retiring at the end of the season.

----

GOONER BEER RANT :

But frankly the preliminary games are a bit of a farce - and even if an upset did happen so that we did not get a Europe v South America final all it would mean is another imbalanced game in the final.

This is one FIFA turkey that will not fly - no matter how much they dress it up. Either bring over a couple more top sides for the "tournament" or stop pretending that it's anything more than a one-game title.

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Italy : Weekend Betting Sheet Dec 2nd

Here is the betting spreadsheet for Sunday 2nd December in Italy.

As you can see (if you clicked the sheet above to get a copy in a seperate browser) there are no huge mismatches this weekend - with all of the game rated within a MARgin of 100 (or 1 goal on average).

But there are still a couple of games that are worth a good close look :

LIKELY WINNER
-----------------------
Parma to beat Empoli @ 2.00 at Bet365

Empoli are just 1-2-5 away from home this season and have lost 3 of their last 4 road games heavily losing 0-3 each time. Of course sandwiched in between those results is that stunning 1-0 win in the San Siro against AC Milan - but that's why they call it gambling right?

VALUE SYSTEM DRAWS
-----------------------
The bookmakers seem to be cottoning onto our system this month - as we've picked out three more games worth a shot - but I notice that 3.00 is about the best price that we can get now - that days of 3.20 to 3.50 are long gone.

DRAW - Torino v Genoa @ 3.00
DRAW - Catania v Palermo @ 3.00
DRAW - Cagliari v Livorno @ 3.00

As you can see all three games have a similar rating pattern with the MARgin within about 30 and none of the sides ranked at 1,000 above.

Our research has shown that generally these teams are happy to accept a draw if it's still level with 80 minutes gone - and so draws are occuring more than 1/3 of the time.

Ok. That's the lot this week - good luck.

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Betting Sheet Reviews

It's time to take a look back at the weekend betting spreadsheets and see how we did in England and Italy.

ENGLAND - LIKELY WINNERS
-----------------------------
Hits at home with Arsenal, Everton and Manchester City, and an away win with Chelsea as well - but Manchester United prevented the clean sweep.

Still a 4-1 record produces a profit, as 100 units staked per bet returns 571 units for a +71 unit profit.

And that's not counting the 5.50 price on the DRAW/ARSENAL HT/FT pick or the fact that I actually went for Bolton on +1.25 AH on the main site. (you do check them out right?)

All-in-all a good weekend in England.

ITALY - LIKELY WINNERS
-----------------------------
After warning about the draws in ITaly we only ran into one this weekend in the Serie A, with winners found for Inter Milan, Juventus, AS Roma and AC Milan as Itlian football sorted itself out.

Fiorentina did draw with Reggina though.

Still - another 4-1 record, and again 100 points on each resulted in a 662 point return for +162 points profit.

ITALY - VALUE DRAWS
-----------------------------
Two draws tipped and one of them came in - paying out at 2.95 meaning that the 2x100 point stakes turned into a 295 point return for a +95 unit profit.

SUMMARY
-----------------------------
There was nothing stunning in the spreadsheet picks - but very, very reliable tips - with all three published systems showing a nice bit of wedge at +328 units. I hope that we helped you into a few "free beers" this weekend - being paid out of betting profits.

Catch ya next week.

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Italian Football : Betting sheet Nov 24/25

Welcome back to the blog - and I've also been able to knock out the Italian sheet in plenty of time for the weekend.

One word of caution about Italian football - it seems that this season is the seaon of the draw in Serie A - as after 117 games this season draws lead all results with a 40-46-31 breakdown.

That means that home wins are running at just 34% (a huge variance on the normal 46% in Italy) and so if you're wondering why your normal home banker accumulators are not working then this might be a mjor reason.

HOME WINNERS (be careful though - read above)
----------------------------------
Inter Milan to beat Atalanta @ 1.31 at PinnacleSports
Juventus to beat Palermo @ 1.66 at Globet

AWAY WINNERS
----------------------------------
AS Roma to win at Genoa @ 2.00 at Bet365
AC Milan to win at Cagliari @ 1.65 at VCBet
Fiorentina to win at Reggina @ 2.15 at PinnacleSports

And if you're following the value DRAW system which has produced good results so far then consider :
- Napoli v Catania DRAW @ 3.48 at PinnacleSports
- Empoli v Torino DRAW @ 2.95 (available generally)

Good luck with your Italian bets this weekend.

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Italy : Weekend Betting Sheet Nov 10/11

And I've also done the Italian betting sheet as well in time for Saturday afternoon's Serie A games.

The Italian sheet seems to be pretty consistant this weekend - with most of the betting systems coming together to provide a strong direction for punters.

Mind you - please just remember that there were SEVEN draws in the 10 games in last weeks Serie A round and it was only our VaLUE betting draw system that saved us from disaster.

The "likely winners" went 0-4 for a 400 unit loss, but the draw system managed a 3-1 performance for a 510 unit profit !! So as you can see - even with the betting sheet and the number crunching done - it's not a simple path to profits.

Ok - with that warning out of the way - onto the picks :

Likely winners are forecast by BOTH the RES and MAR systems for :
----------------------------------------------------
Sampdoria to beat Empoli
Fiorentina to beat Udinese
Juventus to win at Parma
AS Roma to beat Cagliari

While there are single picks for :
----------------------------------------------------
MAR : +83 Inter Milan to beat Lazio
RES : 54% AC Milan to win at Atlanta

The DISCOVERED VALUE draw system has three likely candidates this weekend.
----------------------------------------------------
Palermo v Napoli @ 3.00
Reggina v Genoa @ 2.90
Torino v Catania @ 3.15

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Italy : Weekend Betting Sheet Nov 4

After watching the big game between Arsenal and Manchester United, I've sat down and worked out the betting angles for Sunday's action in Italy's Serie A.



Likely Winners
-----------------------
The sheet has recommendations on four matches likely to finish with pickable winners.

Parma to beat Siena @ 1.91 at Bet365
Cagliari to beat Sampdoria @ 2.35 at Bet365
Roma to win at Empoli @ 1.67 at Bet365
Inter Milan to win at Juventus @ 2.80 at Bet365

Discovered Value Betting
--------------------------
In terms of betting on good potential value we also have a handful of draw options to have a look at.

Analysis of the sheet has found a lucrative little "gap" in the bookie odds in Italy's Serie A league where the away team is rated as a slight favourite - specifically between 0 and -30 MARgin.

This method enables us to hit draws at a 38% rate - and is yielding positive returns (between 5% and 25$) in each of the last six seasons.

Catania v Atlanta @ 3.00
Genoa v Palermo @ 3.00
Livorno v Udinese @ 3.05
Juventus v Inter Milan @ 3.10

And also we see some value on the home win in this game too :
Cagliari to beat Sampdoria @ 2.35 at Bet365

Good luck with your Italian football bets on Sunday.

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Italy : Wednesday Betting Sheet Oct 31

We've got a full round of fixtures in Italy on Wednesday night and plenty of picks to consider from the sheet.



LIKELY WINNERS
There are as many as SIX likely winners picked - all of them home wins - and all of the home sides rated as a full goal better than their opponents.

Reggina to beat Livorno @ 1.91 at BetFred
Palermo to beat Parma @ 1.65 at VCBet
Juventus to beat Empoli @ 1.35 at PinnacleSports
Inter_Milan to beat Genoa @ 1.33 at PinnacleSports
Atalanta to beat Cagliari @ 1.93 at PinnacleSports
Fiorentina to beat Napoli @ 1.70 at Bet365

All of these odds are rated in black ink on the sheet meaning that they're fair odds.

(all odds updated as at 9:30am GMT)

VALUE BETTING
There are four draws and two home wins that are indicated as being potential "discovered value" bets on Wednesday night.

Udinese to draw with Torino @ 3.25 at VC Bet
Siena to draw with Catania @ 2.95 at Canbet
Sampdoria to draw with Milan_AC @ 3.20 at Bet365
Roma_AS to draw with Lazio @ 3.45 at PinnacleSports

As well as :
Reggina to beat Livorno @ 1.91 at BetFred
Palermo to beat Parma @ 1.65 at VCBet

It will be interesting to see how the two differing systems fare.

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Italy : Betting Sheet Review

A very interesting Sunday in Serie A - with AC Milan slumping to another home defeat - and it's time to check out the results to see how the sheet went.

What did we get right?
Not as much as we would have liked - but we did call the big game correctly :
Roma to win at Milan @ 3.55
Parma to beat Livorno @ 1.80

What went pear-shapped?
Juve actually lost at Napoli (we had them winning)
Inter could not beat Palermo (drawing 0-0)
Empoli lost at home to Atlanta (we thought they'd win)

Value Betting Draw System.
The value betting system finished all square - with one of the three matches finishing all squre to get our money back.
- Siena v Reggina @ 3.00 - ended 0-0 :-)
- Lazio v Udinese @ 3.00 - Udinese won 1-0
- Torino v Cagliari @ 3.20 - Torino won 2-0

Overall that's 8 bets - and just three winners - but importantly we didn't lose money and did OK on a weekend where upsets hit some other punting systems hard.

800 units staked and 835 units returned for a small +35 unit profit.
I'll try to lock in better returns next week.

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Italy : Weekend Betting Sheet Oct 27/28

Next we head to Italy, and see if we can do an "Italian Job" on the bookmakers prices in Serie A.



The sheet has quite a few picks this week - and several away picks which is always a tricky thing to bet on in Italy.

LIKELY WINNERS
The sheet is backing three of the the big sides to win on the road in Italy this weekend.

The first two games might not surprise as Juventus to win at Napoli and Inter Milan to win at Palermo will appeal to a lot of punters especially with prices above even money.

But the sheet also likes the look of AS Roma to win at AC Milan as well, although remember that it does not take potential injuries into account so Totti's absence could be vital.

On the home front - probable wins are seleected for Empoli to be Atlanta and Parma to beat Livorno and again the prices are remarkable good.

VALUE BETTING
If you're value betting in Italy that usually means taking draws - and that is exactly what the system selects this weekend with three likely ties :
- Siena v Reggina @ 3.00
- Lazio v Udinese @ 3.00
- Torino v Cagliari @ 3.20

Good luck if you're punting.

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Italy : Weekend Betting Sheet Oct 20/21

Here is the betting spreadsheet for the Itaian Serie A for the weekend of October 20th/21st, 2007.

Likely home wins for :
-----------------------
AS Roma to beat Napoli @ 1.40 at Interwetten
Fiorentina to beat Siena @ 1.40 a Interwetten
AC Milan to beat Empoli @ 1.27 at Betsson
Atlanta to beat Torino @ 2.30 at Bet365
Sampdoria to beat Parma @ 1.85 at EuroBet
Juventus to beat Genoa @ 1.42 at Betsson

And a probable away win for :
-----------------------------
Inter Milan to win at Reggina @ 1.50 at Bet365

The discovered value systems indicate that the wins for Roma, Fiorentina and Juventus are worth taking.

Good luck.

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Italian Football : Betting Spreadsheet Sep 29-30

We've got the Italian football betting spreadsheet online for the weekend now - with the popular Gooners Guide "discovered value" systems all posted on the forum.

Link : The Sheet -> Serie A - 29/30 Sept

The DV-DRAW system has been going great guns so far this season in Italy - correctly identifying 15 draws from 24 attempts and returning a yield of over 90% so far.

Of course it cannot continue to run this week - bookmakers would go broke if that happened - but it's been a great ride - and the system has thrown up 5 more draw picks for this weekend.

We've had several queries about how we do the picks - and although I'm not going to divulge the complete secret - I will let you see this picture of the backroom staff prepraring the sheets ...
:-)

Good luck with your bets this weekend.

RELATED LINKS :
Gooners Guide : Italian football Betting Previews
BookieLabRat : Live Italian Football Betting Odds
Livescore : Live football scores from around Europe

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Italian midweek spreadsheet up

There is a round of midweek action in Serie A - and now that we've got the site back up and running we've been able to post our home work.

We've done all the calculations and premutations for the midweek games in Italy and posted the spreadsheet with a few betting notes into the forum

The Sheet -> Italian midweek

Four "likely winners" :
-----------------------------
Inter Milan @ 1.40
Napoli @ 1.86
Juventus @ 1.28
and AC Milan (away) @ 2.33

The discovered value system suggests three bets (two repeats of above).
-----------------------------
DV-Home ::: Inter Milan @ 1.40
DV-Draw ::: Lazio v Cagliari @ 3.30
DV-Away ::: AC Milan @ 2.33

Good luck.

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European Football Sheets online 1/2 Sep

It's been a busy week - but I've finally got all three of my European football prediction spreadsheets up and posted onto the forum.

Direct Links :
The Sheet --> German Bundesliga 1/2 Sep
The Sheet --> Italian Serie A 1/2 Sep
The Sheet --> English Premier League 1/2 Sep

In each of the forum threads I've also tried to outline the "most likely" winners for the weekend - and also the "discovered value' picks that are indicated using a secondary checking method that I am using.

please remember that nothing is certain in football betting - and if you do decide to bet then you acknowledge the personal decisions and risks that you are taking.

(What I'm saying here is don't come whining to me on Monday if these don't happen to win - I've tried as hard as I can to input all the accurate data - but sometimes things just don't go our way!!)

Also remember that this wekend we are trying to raise money for the Greek Wildfire Tragedy and are asking for winning punters to simply donate 5% or 10% of any profits that they make from the spreadsheet picks this weekend to this worthwhile cause.

If there is any Karma then you can be positive in knowing that this decision will bring you good luck - and hopefully great returns.

Good luck everyone - catch you next week - or feel free to post any and all questions on the forum.

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Weekend Football Speadsheets Online

The latest prediction spreadsheets for England, Germany and Italy are online in the Best of the Bets Forum.

Check out the forum for the threads where the sheets are posted along with some pointers on the best betting options and a couple of betting systems.

Direct links :
- The Sheet -> Italy - 25/26 August
- The Sheet-> England 25/26 August
- The Sheet -> German Bundesliga 24/26 August

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Mar 17/18 Weekend Spreadsheets out now

How's your week gone?

Hopefully you didn't blow your betting bank on the Cheltenham festival and you've got some cash left for the weekends football.

I've posted all three weekend sheets (England, Germny and Italy) on the forum in their respective threads now - and it's a bit of a mixed bag this week.

Here's a quick summary by country.

ENGLAND - LIKELY BETS
There are four probable home winners forecast by the spreadsheet in the English Premier League this weekend :
- Chelsea (85%) to beat Sheffield United @ 1.20
- Tottenham (77%) to beat Watford @ 1.50
- Manchester United (76%) to beat Bolton Wanderers @ 1.33
- Blackburn Rovers (66%) to beat West Ham @ 1.75

and there is also a "half" recommendation for :
- Reading (61%) to beat Portsmouth

ENGLAND - VALUE BETS
There are three home sides who look reasonable "value" with Reading, Tottenham, and Blackburn all seen as giving at least 115% value options.

The sheet also thinks that the price of 3.40 for draws in Aston Villa v Liverpool and Everton v Arsenal look bit over-priced.

GERMANY - LIKELY BETS
Nothing appears too liekly on Saturday - but the two Sunday games look to have their chances for the home sides :
- Leverkusen (66%) to beat Monchengladbach @ 1.73
- Werder Bremen (64%) to beat Mainz @ 1.45

GERMANY - VALUE BETS
One option for value seekers may be to oppose Bayern Munich on Saturday - they've lost a lot of road games and Eintracht Frankfurt are priced at a high 5.50 to score a home win.

Elsewhere you could consider taking either Hamburg or Bochum to score suprise away wins at nice prices.

ITALY - LIKELY BETS
Italy provides us with the only "likely" away win of the wekend - and no surprises that it's Inter Milan that is picked - along with two obvious home win choices :
- AC Milan (75%) to beat Atalanta @ 1.36
- Inter Milan (67%) to win at Ascoli @ 1.40
- Lazio (65%) to beat Empoli @ 1.67

Good luck with your punting - feel free to drop by the forum and offer any comments.

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The Sheets - England / Italy / Germany - 3rd/4th Mar

Hello - thanks for checking out the blog today.

Because I'm running a bit behind schedule this weekend we're going to do things a little differently today, as I'm going to discuss each sheet briefly and then point you to the Betting Forum where the sheets are posted and you can join in the discussion.

ENGLISH SHEET. (FORUM LINK - or go DIRECT TO POST )

LIKELY BETS
===========================
Arsenal to beat Reading.
Chelsea to win at Portsmouth.

Of course the sheet knows nothing about injuries to John Terry, or to Thierry Henry, or about upcoming European geames (etc) so you have to apply your own modifiers to those percentage numbers and decide whether it's still worth a play.

VALUE BETS
=================================
An interesting sheet for the weekend with 6 teams raising the GREEN FLAG for value :

Liverpool to beat Manchester Utd
Arsenal to beat Reading
Fulham to beat Aston Villa
Sheff Utd to beat Everton
Portsmouth to beat Chelsea
West Ham to beat Tottenham

Place six singles and if you get three or more winners then you'll be in profit.

ITALIAN SHEET. (FORUM LINK - or go DIRECT TO POST )

LIKELY BETS
=============================
There are three games that most people would pick and all of them appear to be at fair or better value too.

Milan AC to beat Chievo @ 1.40 (Saturday)
Fiorentina to beat Torino @ 1.40
Lazio to beat Sampdoria @ 1.80


GERMAN SHEET. (FORUM LINK - or go DIRECT TO POST )

LIKELY BETS
===================
Only one is recommended by both halves of the sheet with Werder Bremen the obvious choice to beat Bochum - but the price of 1.33 is very poor value.

There are two "half recommendations :
Wolfsburg to beat Mochengladbach at 1.95
Dortmund to beat Cottbus @ 1.65

The first bet is on Saturday and seems to have some value as well

VALUE BETS
=============================
Hertha Berlin to beat Bayern Munich at 3.30 !!
3.30 !! that's a good price.
:-)

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The Sheet - Italian Serie A - Feb 28th

Here is the sheet for Wednesday night's games :


Click the image to see the full sheet

There is not too much to say about the four "likely picks" indicated on the sheet with the (+) home wins and (-) away wins as they're all fair solidly backed up by league standings and current form.

LIKELY RESULTS
====================
Inter Milan (77%) to beat Udinese @ 1.33
Lazio (66%) to beat Catania @ 1.53
Empoli (64%) to beat Messina @ 1.73
AS Roma (55%) to win at Chievo @ 2.10 (Asian Handicap)

Interestingly - all of these games are best priced at Bet365 and because each bet is considered to be a fair value (100%) or better it's one of those rare cases where a set of doubles or treble bets are worth a shot.

VALUE PICKS :
===================
And here are a few bets that have good enough odds to be considered value - but they are less likely to win on an individual basis.

Cagliari (31%) to win at Torino @ 4.20 (129% value)
The bet here is really betting against Torino who have lost 6 in a row and just sacked their manager.

Cagliari are just 1-5-5 on the road though ... so perhaps taking them at +1/4 ball on the AH (price is 2.03) is a better play.

AC Milan (48%) to win at Palermo @ 2.70 (131% value)
That's right - AC milan have become so poor that they're no longer an automatic "likely" pick and are actually at value at Betsson.

Milan might have squeaked home 1-0 on the weekend - but they're 7-3-0 in their last 10 SErie A games ... so it's a good price against Palermo who are 5th but haven't won in their last three games.

Ascoli (46%) to beat Parma @ 2.88 (133% value)
A real relegation scrap as Ascoli (20th on 14 points) face Parma (19th on 16 points).

Ascoli have picked up a pair of draws in thier last two games - but will be without several players for this game after picking up some suspensions on the weekend.

Parma drew 3-3 at Udinese on the weekend for their first point in four games, and they're 0-5-8 on the road.

sUMMARY
====================
So there's seven bets for you to consider on Wednesday night in Italy - you should not expect them all to win as the sheet can only forecast mathematically - but I'm looking for 5-6 winners from that set

... so it's just a question of spotting and avoiding the upset result - or staking correctly so that you make a profit anyway.

Good luck with your punts.

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The Sheet - Italian Serie A - Feb 24th/25th

The Italian sheet continues to pick a lot of home winners - although nothing for the two games being played on Saturday.

LIKELY WINNERS
=================
On Sunday we have five likely home winners :

Milan_AC vs Sampdoria
Udinese vs Parma
Livorno vs Ascoli
Fiorentina vs Empoli
Roma_AS vs Reggina

All of them are rated between 92% to 120% of fair value suggesting that they're reasonable bets to consider but we will still have tob check out team news and such like.

VALUE BETS
=================
Betting value on Italian football is much harder to find - as my statistics on the last three seasons show that blind betting (taking level stakes on every match) would have lost -13% on home sides and -18% on away sides.

These numbers reflect the fact that the betting markets on Italian football are far less competitive when compared to the English league ... and you need a bigger margin.

There are two value bets on offer :
Fiorentina to beat Empoli @ 1.60 at Canbet
Chievo to beat Torino @ 2.20 at Eurobet.

I'll ignore the 10.00 (9/1) being offered at Betfred for Catania to beat Inter Milan even though it is far above the rest of the market - as at 13% it's too much of an outsider for me ... (although the draw at 4.50 might be worth a sneaky wager).

Good luck with your punts.

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The Sheet - Italian Football - Feb 17th/18th

(Click image to see the full sheet)

With the English Premier League taking another break due to the FA Cup - we have to turn our attention to Europe and Italy in particular to find quality league action.

Most likely wins :
==================================
The sheet has come up with four games where the home team is considered to be the most likely result - and here is a list of the sides who are at 55% or better :
- Inter Milan (74%) to beat Cagliari (1.20 @ Interwetten)
- Palermo (57%) to beat Chievo (1.57 @ Bet365)
- Lazio (61%) to beat Torino (1.62 @ BetDirect)
- Livorno (58%) to beat Messina (1.72 @ Ladbrokes)

Value punting :
==================================
However, I'm a big fan of looking for value when taking a punt - and so I'll only have a shot on those home teams where they've got green ink in the value column - meaning that the odds being paid are better than the risk that I'm taking.

I see two home sides that are worth a shot :
- Empoli 27% @ 4.35 to beat AS Roma (117% value)
- Catania 37% @ 4.00 to beat Fiorentina (146% value)

Staking suggestion for value bets (using a Kelly Criteria variant) :
- Catania 100 units.
- Empoli 50 units.

Goood luck with your Italian Bets.

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The Sheet - Italian Football - Jan 27th/28th

(Click image to see the full sheet)

With the English Premier League taking a week - and the FA Cup always a bit unpredictable - we have to turn our attention to Italy to find quality league action.

Fortunately the sheet has responded with quite a few picks.

Most likely wins :
==================================
The sheet has come up with six games where the home team is considered to be the most likely result - and here is a list of the sides who are at 55% or better :
- AS Roma (58%) to beat Siena at Bet365
- Cagliari (55%) to beat Reggina at EuroBet
- AC Milan (85%) to beat Parma at Bet365
- Fiorentina (86%) to beat Livorno at Interwetten
- Atalanta (60%) to beat Catania at PaddyPower
- Chievo (56%) to beat Empoli at EuroBet

Value punting :
==================================
However, I'm a big fan of looking for value when taking a punt - and so I'll only have a shot on those home teams where they've got green ink in the value column - meaning that the odds being paid are better than the risk that I'm taking.

I see four home sides that are worth a shot :
- Sampdoria 22% @ 6.00 to beat Inter Milan (132% value)
- Cagliari 55% @ 2.15 to beat Reggina (117% value)
- Fiorentina 86% @ 1.55 to beat Livorno (133% value)
- Chievo 56% @ 2.40 to beat Empoli (135% value)

Staking suggestion for value bets (using a Kelly Criteria variant) :
- Fiorentina 200 units
- Cagliari & Chievo 100 units each
- Sampdoria 25 units.

Handicap options :
==================================
For punters that prefer taking thea asian handicap style of betting - the sheet also has four selections - although the calculations are not shown - so I'll list them out here.

Saturday :
Take Udinese +0.25 @ 1.86 to beat Torino

Sunday :
Take Chievo -0.25 @ 1.93 to beat Empoli
Take Fiorentina -1.00 @ 2.05 to beat Livorno
Take Cagliari -0.25 @ 1.93 to beat Reggina

(all handicap odds from PinnacleSports)

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The Sheet - Italy Serie A - Dec 23rd

( Click the sheet to see the full image )

And here is the second of the Saturday sheets as we take in the Serie A action - which plays it's last round before a short mid-winter break.

In midweek the Italian Sheet went 3-0 on it's recommendations - but as always I will remind you that past performance is not guarantee of future returns so you always need to make up your own mind and not bet blindly.

We have three very strong home win recommendations here - with all teams rated as 75+ likely to win - and also considered to be at fair value too.
- Fiorentina to beat Messina (1.30 @ BetFred)
- Inter Milan to beat Atalanta (1.25 @ Bet365)
- AS Roma to beat Cagliari (1.25 @ Bet365)

There is also a half recommendation for
- AC Milan to win at Udinese (2.20 @ Bet365)

If you like value bets - where the odds seem to be greater than the risk then there are two other matches to take a look at :
- Liverno are considered 51% likely to beat Torino (2.25 @ Bet365)
- and the Draw between Parma and Lazio is a 39% chance and paying 3.00.

Ok ... that's the lot for Saturday good luck with it.

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The Sheet -> Italy Serie A - Dec 20th

(Click the sheet image to see the full size version)

Here is the sheet for all the Wednesday night Serie A football in Italy, but once again there is nothing too stunning is what the maths have to say.

There are 3 picks that look like probably winners - but annoyingly they are all at less than fair value :

- AC Milan to beat Catania -- Odds 1.36 at BetFred
- Palermo to beat Ascoli ---- Odds 1.29 at BetFred
- AS Roma to win at Torino -- Odds 2.00 at Interwetten

Note that there is a bit of anamoly with the AS Roma pick, there are just 7 other games where the away side has been favoured this much, and it's gone badly for them with a 2-3-2 record.

I still go with AS Roma here as that -300 point margin equates to a whole goal advantage and I'd make this about 55%-60% likely to finish in an away win.

---

Elsewhere the sheet sees potential value in big underdogs playing away from home - but I think that's not a likely scenario - and the bookmakers know it too which is why they're offering such big prices.

However, there might be a bit of value in taking home side Cagliari when they face Fiorentina. I know that Fiorentina are 4th but they're just 3-2-3 on the road ... while Cagliari are 2-5-1 at home.

A draw is very possible (Cagliari have drawn 10 of 16 games in Serie A) and I'd rather make sure it was on my side in any bet - so let's take the asian handicap bet and back Cagliari with a start of +1/4.

(Best price is 1.83 at PinnacleSports)

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The Sheet - Italy - Dec 16/17

Click to see the full size sheet.

Very tricky in Italy this week with 6 of the 10 games within 100 ranking points so many of the games are rated as high draw chances.

The picks :
- Inter Milan to beat Messina
- Udinese to beat Cagliari (just 5 pts off)

Possible value in :
- Ascoli (124%) to beat Torino @ 3.00
- Catania (114%) to beat Empoli @ 2.20

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The Sheet - Italy - Dec 10

(Click the image to view the full sheet)

Saturday proved to be a good day for the sheet in England - so here is the sheet calculations for Sunday in Serie A.

Two games are chosen by both halves of the sheet - with Atalanta and AC Milan seen as likely winners and the price on Atalanta is a good one too.

Elsewhere Inter Milan are seen as likely winners - but the price is awful - so value punters may actually be tempted on Empoli at prices higher than 7.00 and a 30% win chance.

Finally - the SONAS half of the sheet thinks that Cagliari are worth a shot at home to Parna ... although the vlaue calculation says that it's only fair value at best.

OK .. I hope that helps you on Sunday.

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