Inter Milan held by Siena to send title race to final weekend

Inter Milan again missed the chance to retain their Serie A title when they were held 2-2 at home by Siena on Sunday with Marco Materazzi having a penalty saved.

Second-placed AS Roma beat Atalanta 2-1 to cut the gap to one point with one round of matches remaining next weekend.

Livorno were relegated after a 1-0 defeat at home to Torino.

Fiorentina beat relegation-threatened Parma 3-1 to move into fourth spot and the final Champions league qualifying place after AC Milan lost 3-1 at Napoli and now two points behind with a game left.

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Italy Silly Season - Fixes or Rumour

We are getting towards the end of the Serie A season - and relegation looms in Italy making the situation rife for plenty of rumours about match-fixing.

There were plenty of strange low value prices today - and plenty of high value in Serie A. Of course we're all aware that Parma won today at a very low price - and everyone has jumped on the fix bandwagon again - was that really the case?

Let's take a look at a selection of games in Italy, and work out what would have happened if you'd backed the "fix" or taken the value.

THE FIXES :
Parma v Genoa (1.48 - 8.00)
This was picked as a close game by the betting spreadsheet, but the fixers were sure that Parma would win and so the 1.48 price on the home side was very, very low - unexplainable in normal terms. Parma were 5-6-5 at home this season, Genoa 5-5-6 away.

Parma won 1-0 and the FIXERS claim a win but was a home win here really a big surprise?!

Torino V Napoli (1.40 - 10.00)
Torino in relegation trouble and Napoli very safely in midtable. Torino favoured slightly by the sheet at home (0.36 of a goal) mainly due to Napoli's woeful 3-4-11 away record.

However the 1.40 on Torino to win is about 56% of fair and surely this is another "fix"? Torino do 2-1 so the FIXERS WIN. But was it proof of corruption or a desperate home team?

Siena v Juventus (8.40 - 1.57)
Juventus in 3rd assumed to have referee backing and will win at Siena. The home side are priced at a staggering 227% of correct value as they are estimated to win this game 27% of the time by the sheet.

The result is that Siena win 1-0. FIXERS LOSE. Value punters win big.

Atlanta v Livorno (3.25 - 2.35)
Atlanta by far the better side, and rated 0.66 of a goal favourite by the sheet are somehow considered outsiders at home to bottom placed Livorno who will win via a fix?.

Atlanta win 3-2. FIXERS LOSE

---

There were two other games that did provide upsets of sorts - where they were away teams winning at prices over 4.00+ that never got a rumour of a "fix".

Looking at the form lines, it was very hard to pick the results, and based on the the price no-one seemed to suspect a fix. But the fact that they occured shows how results can vary in football especially at the tail end of a season.

Catania v Reggina (2.10 - 4.40)
A real relegation battle and lowly Reggina priced a low 53% of fair value. But Reggina grab a vital 2-1 away win at a 4.40 price - where were the fix rumours about this game then?

Lazio v Palermo (2.50 - 4.00)
Palermo came into the game 3 points ahead, but without a win in their last six away games. Lazio picked to win based on home form and cruised up 1-0 until the last 10 minutes when Palermo scored twice to win. A fix?

---

The upshot is that if you had beleive in the two successful fixes then you did win - and make profits on the home wins. Of course you'd have had to really lump on in order to make good money - and also avoid the Juventus game.

Lets say you believe so wager double stakes (200 euros) on each of the two correct "fixed" games then here is how the money falls :
= 400 euros bet / 580 euros returned and a profit of 180 euros.

A good profit. However if you'd simply backed the four value sides (Napoli, Genoa, Atlanta and Siena) at normal level stakes of 100 euros then :
= 400 euros bet and two wins for 1265 euros returned for a profit of 865 euros !!!

---

If every strange result is a fix - why did no-one seem to get on the upset wins for Reggina and Palermo who surprised at prices of over 4.00?

So are there fixes in Serie A that the public can get on? Or aew they simply wildfire internet rumours based on a few strange results?

I'm still not convinced.

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Fiorentina open Champions League door for AC Milan

Milan move two points behind fourth-placed Fiorentina - held 2-2 by Sampdoria - thanks to a Filippo Inzaghi hat-trick.

Livorno 1-4 AC Milan
AC Milan won 4-1 at Livorno a result which boosts the Rossoneri's Champions League hopes as it brings them to within two points of 4th placed Fiorentina.

Filippo Inzaghi opened the scoring in the 23rd minute, scored his second seven minutes into the second half and completed his treble seven minutes later.

Clarence Seedorf added a fourth in the 70th minute before Dario Knezevic pulled a goal back for the home side two minutes later.

Fiorentina 2-2 Sampdoria
Fiorentina trailed to Christian Maggio's 63rd-minute goal but must have thought they had beaten Samp when Christian Vieri levelled in the 77th minute and Adrian Mutu converted an 84th-minute penalty.

But Daniele Gastaldello's stoppage-time equaliser earned a point for the visitors.

Fiorentina looked a little tired, as they are still battling in the UEFA Cup and can claim a place in the UEFA Cup final if they beat Glasgow Rangers on Thursday.

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Roma keep Serie A title race alive - but Inter need just one more win.

Roma kept the Serie A title race alive for another week at least with a 4-1 thrashing of Torino.

Inter Milan 2-1 Cagliari
Leaders Internazionale won 2-1 at home to Cagliari, Inter's victory was comfortable as they led through Julio Cruz's 21st-minute strike and doubled their lead through second-half substitute Marco Materazzi in the 83rd minute.

Davide Biondini's stoppage-time effort for the visitors was just a consolation.

AS Roma 4-1 Torino
So defeat for Roma would have seen the Nerazzurri claim their second successive Scudetto. But the result was rarely in doubt after David Pizarro opened the scoring for Roma in the 18th minute from the penalty spot.

Mirko Vucinic doubled his team's lead two minutes later and Mancini made it 3-0 in the 25th minute and then netted his second shortly after the half-hour mark.

Substitute Nicola Ventola reduced the deficit five minutes after the interval but the visitors could not make further inroads, even after Roma defender Juan was sent off with 15 minutes left to play.

So Inter Milan can clinch the title next week in the Milan derby with a win.

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Betting Spreadsheet - Italy numbers up.

The Gooners Numb3rs (tm) spreadsheet for the 10 Serie A games this weekend is up and online with some interesting picks.

There are three "likely picks" for Roma, Fiorentina and Inter Milan this weekend as well as three "discovered value" selections as well.

The "fix" also appears to be in on the Siena v Genoa match - where the best price for the draw is as low as 2.05 (at Bet365) and only a handful of bookmakers currently offering a price on this game.

Good luck with your punting and be careful out there.

RELATED LINKS :
Gooners Numb3rs Spreadsheet for Italy Serie A
Live Betting Odds for Serie A from BookieLabRat.com
Football Match Previews for Serie A at GoonersGuide.com

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Serie A Shocks on Sunday

Substitute Daniel Pablo Osvaldo struck an added-time winner as Fiorentina moved a point behind Juventus with a 3-2 victory in Turin – their first away victory over the Bianconeri in two decades.

SSC Napoli also enjoyed a notable success as they became the first club to beat the champions FC Internazionale Milano in Serie A this term winning 1-0.

That leaves Inter Milan (61) leading by 6 points from AS Roma (55), with Juve (48) and Fiorentina (47) battling for the Champions League spots.

Perrenial powerhouse AC Milan are in 5th spot on 43 points are are starting to run the risk of missing out on a lucrative Champions League spot next season.

The full Serie A table is available on the main Italian page on the GoonersGuide.com site.

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Gooners Numb3rs - ISA Midweek Spreadsheet

There is a midweek round of the Italian Serie A and the spreadsheet numb3rs are out now.

See the spreadsheet output now.

There are 4 home winners and 1 away winner predicted.
All of them at 100% or greater value.

I bet those prices don't last long.

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GBL and ISA Betting Spreadsheet

With the FA Cup on in England this weekend it means that there are only two leagues covered by the "Gooners Numb3rs" (tm) betting spreadsheet.

(League stats are not used to predict cup games - sorry)

Gooners ISA Numb3rs - Italian Serie A
Has 3 likely home winners and one likely away winner. There is also one "value draw" pick - after they returned back to profit last weekend.

Gooners GBL Numb3ers - German Bundesliga
The Bundesliga is proving hard to make a profit on this season - it lost money again last weekend - but the sheet reckons that there are three likely home winners to check out this weekend.

Good luck with your bets.

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Betting Spreadsheet - online for weekend

It's pretty quiet this week so I've taken advantage of the time to get the "Gooners Numb3rs" (tm) betting spreadsheet done.

Gooners EPL Numb3rs - English Premier League
Has 4 likely home wins, and one likely away win (Spurs?!)

It also suggests a "value" draw on Saturday - and some value on taking Chelsea to win at Stamford Bridge against Liverpool on Sunday.

Gooners ISA Numb3rs - Italian Serie A
Has 3 likely home winners and one likely away winner.

There are two more value draw picks - although these are on a 0-4 run - so be a little careful with your stake size,

Gooners GBL Numb3ers - German Bundesliga
The Bundesliga is proving hard to make a profit on this season - but the sheet reckons that there are five likely home winners (at reasonable prices too) and a couple of discover value plays too.

Check it out.

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Football betting Prediction spreadsheets

The league betting spreadsheets have been processed and the outputs for the weekend of Jan 12th/13th are now up and online.

GOONERS NUMB3RS - EPL spreadsheet picks
A whole host of likely home winners (6 !!) are tipped in England and one away winner too. Can you pick who that might be (before taking a look) ?

GOONERS NUMB3RS - ISA Spreadsheet picks
It's much tighter in Italy - with one home win at a good price and one away win at a poor price.

The Italian DV-Draw system also has one pick too. It's gone 3-2 over the last five picks and is on a +33% yield over the course of this season - so it's well worth checking out.

There seem to be plenty of picks this weekend worth a shot - good luck with your bets - I hope that the statistical view helps you narrow down some good choices.

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AC Milan 4-2 Boca Juniors

Milan win FIFA World Club Championship

Finally we had a football game worth talking about at the "World Club Championships" as an aging Milan team overcame an out-of-season Boca Juniors side in the "final".

Filippo Inzaghi scored twice as AC Milan beat Boca Juniors to win the Club World Cup in Japan. Inzaghi struck after a Kaka pass on 21 minutes but Boca equalised a minute later through Rodrigo Palacio's header.

Alessandro Nesta's volley, Kaka's solo run and finish and Inzaghi's second - all in the space of 10 minutes - settled the match in Milan's favour.

Kakha Kaladze saw red, as did Boca's Pablo Ledesma, while Milan's Massimo Ambrosini scored an own goal.

So well done and congratulations to AC Milan - who learned that Paulo Maldini will be retiring at the end of the season.

----

GOONER BEER RANT :

But frankly the preliminary games are a bit of a farce - and even if an upset did happen so that we did not get a Europe v South America final all it would mean is another imbalanced game in the final.

This is one FIFA turkey that will not fly - no matter how much they dress it up. Either bring over a couple more top sides for the "tournament" or stop pretending that it's anything more than a one-game title.

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Italy : Weekend Betting Sheet Dec 2nd

Here is the betting spreadsheet for Sunday 2nd December in Italy.

As you can see (if you clicked the sheet above to get a copy in a seperate browser) there are no huge mismatches this weekend - with all of the game rated within a MARgin of 100 (or 1 goal on average).

But there are still a couple of games that are worth a good close look :

LIKELY WINNER
-----------------------
Parma to beat Empoli @ 2.00 at Bet365

Empoli are just 1-2-5 away from home this season and have lost 3 of their last 4 road games heavily losing 0-3 each time. Of course sandwiched in between those results is that stunning 1-0 win in the San Siro against AC Milan - but that's why they call it gambling right?

VALUE SYSTEM DRAWS
-----------------------
The bookmakers seem to be cottoning onto our system this month - as we've picked out three more games worth a shot - but I notice that 3.00 is about the best price that we can get now - that days of 3.20 to 3.50 are long gone.

DRAW - Torino v Genoa @ 3.00
DRAW - Catania v Palermo @ 3.00
DRAW - Cagliari v Livorno @ 3.00

As you can see all three games have a similar rating pattern with the MARgin within about 30 and none of the sides ranked at 1,000 above.

Our research has shown that generally these teams are happy to accept a draw if it's still level with 80 minutes gone - and so draws are occuring more than 1/3 of the time.

Ok. That's the lot this week - good luck.

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Betting Sheet Reviews

It's time to take a look back at the weekend betting spreadsheets and see how we did in England and Italy.

ENGLAND - LIKELY WINNERS
-----------------------------
Hits at home with Arsenal, Everton and Manchester City, and an away win with Chelsea as well - but Manchester United prevented the clean sweep.

Still a 4-1 record produces a profit, as 100 units staked per bet returns 571 units for a +71 unit profit.

And that's not counting the 5.50 price on the DRAW/ARSENAL HT/FT pick or the fact that I actually went for Bolton on +1.25 AH on the main site. (you do check them out right?)

All-in-all a good weekend in England.

ITALY - LIKELY WINNERS
-----------------------------
After warning about the draws in ITaly we only ran into one this weekend in the Serie A, with winners found for Inter Milan, Juventus, AS Roma and AC Milan as Itlian football sorted itself out.

Fiorentina did draw with Reggina though.

Still - another 4-1 record, and again 100 points on each resulted in a 662 point return for +162 points profit.

ITALY - VALUE DRAWS
-----------------------------
Two draws tipped and one of them came in - paying out at 2.95 meaning that the 2x100 point stakes turned into a 295 point return for a +95 unit profit.

SUMMARY
-----------------------------
There was nothing stunning in the spreadsheet picks - but very, very reliable tips - with all three published systems showing a nice bit of wedge at +328 units. I hope that we helped you into a few "free beers" this weekend - being paid out of betting profits.

Catch ya next week.

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Italian Football : Betting sheet Nov 24/25

Welcome back to the blog - and I've also been able to knock out the Italian sheet in plenty of time for the weekend.

One word of caution about Italian football - it seems that this season is the seaon of the draw in Serie A - as after 117 games this season draws lead all results with a 40-46-31 breakdown.

That means that home wins are running at just 34% (a huge variance on the normal 46% in Italy) and so if you're wondering why your normal home banker accumulators are not working then this might be a mjor reason.

HOME WINNERS (be careful though - read above)
----------------------------------
Inter Milan to beat Atalanta @ 1.31 at PinnacleSports
Juventus to beat Palermo @ 1.66 at Globet

AWAY WINNERS
----------------------------------
AS Roma to win at Genoa @ 2.00 at Bet365
AC Milan to win at Cagliari @ 1.65 at VCBet
Fiorentina to win at Reggina @ 2.15 at PinnacleSports

And if you're following the value DRAW system which has produced good results so far then consider :
- Napoli v Catania DRAW @ 3.48 at PinnacleSports
- Empoli v Torino DRAW @ 2.95 (available generally)

Good luck with your Italian bets this weekend.

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Italy : Weekend Betting Sheet Nov 10/11

And I've also done the Italian betting sheet as well in time for Saturday afternoon's Serie A games.

The Italian sheet seems to be pretty consistant this weekend - with most of the betting systems coming together to provide a strong direction for punters.

Mind you - please just remember that there were SEVEN draws in the 10 games in last weeks Serie A round and it was only our VaLUE betting draw system that saved us from disaster.

The "likely winners" went 0-4 for a 400 unit loss, but the draw system managed a 3-1 performance for a 510 unit profit !! So as you can see - even with the betting sheet and the number crunching done - it's not a simple path to profits.

Ok - with that warning out of the way - onto the picks :

Likely winners are forecast by BOTH the RES and MAR systems for :
----------------------------------------------------
Sampdoria to beat Empoli
Fiorentina to beat Udinese
Juventus to win at Parma
AS Roma to beat Cagliari

While there are single picks for :
----------------------------------------------------
MAR : +83 Inter Milan to beat Lazio
RES : 54% AC Milan to win at Atlanta

The DISCOVERED VALUE draw system has three likely candidates this weekend.
----------------------------------------------------
Palermo v Napoli @ 3.00
Reggina v Genoa @ 2.90
Torino v Catania @ 3.15

Stumble It!

Italy : Weekend Betting Sheet Nov 4

After watching the big game between Arsenal and Manchester United, I've sat down and worked out the betting angles for Sunday's action in Italy's Serie A.



Likely Winners
-----------------------
The sheet has recommendations on four matches likely to finish with pickable winners.

Parma to beat Siena @ 1.91 at Bet365
Cagliari to beat Sampdoria @ 2.35 at Bet365
Roma to win at Empoli @ 1.67 at Bet365
Inter Milan to win at Juventus @ 2.80 at Bet365

Discovered Value Betting
--------------------------
In terms of betting on good potential value we also have a handful of draw options to have a look at.

Analysis of the sheet has found a lucrative little "gap" in the bookie odds in Italy's Serie A league where the away team is rated as a slight favourite - specifically between 0 and -30 MARgin.

This method enables us to hit draws at a 38% rate - and is yielding positive returns (between 5% and 25$) in each of the last six seasons.

Catania v Atlanta @ 3.00
Genoa v Palermo @ 3.00
Livorno v Udinese @ 3.05
Juventus v Inter Milan @ 3.10

And also we see some value on the home win in this game too :
Cagliari to beat Sampdoria @ 2.35 at Bet365

Good luck with your Italian football bets on Sunday.

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Italy : Wednesday Betting Sheet Oct 31

We've got a full round of fixtures in Italy on Wednesday night and plenty of picks to consider from the sheet.



LIKELY WINNERS
There are as many as SIX likely winners picked - all of them home wins - and all of the home sides rated as a full goal better than their opponents.

Reggina to beat Livorno @ 1.91 at BetFred
Palermo to beat Parma @ 1.65 at VCBet
Juventus to beat Empoli @ 1.35 at PinnacleSports
Inter_Milan to beat Genoa @ 1.33 at PinnacleSports
Atalanta to beat Cagliari @ 1.93 at PinnacleSports
Fiorentina to beat Napoli @ 1.70 at Bet365

All of these odds are rated in black ink on the sheet meaning that they're fair odds.

(all odds updated as at 9:30am GMT)

VALUE BETTING
There are four draws and two home wins that are indicated as being potential "discovered value" bets on Wednesday night.

Udinese to draw with Torino @ 3.25 at VC Bet
Siena to draw with Catania @ 2.95 at Canbet
Sampdoria to draw with Milan_AC @ 3.20 at Bet365
Roma_AS to draw with Lazio @ 3.45 at PinnacleSports

As well as :
Reggina to beat Livorno @ 1.91 at BetFred
Palermo to beat Parma @ 1.65 at VCBet

It will be interesting to see how the two differing systems fare.

Stumble It!

Italy : Betting Sheet Review

A very interesting Sunday in Serie A - with AC Milan slumping to another home defeat - and it's time to check out the results to see how the sheet went.

What did we get right?
Not as much as we would have liked - but we did call the big game correctly :
Roma to win at Milan @ 3.55
Parma to beat Livorno @ 1.80

What went pear-shapped?
Juve actually lost at Napoli (we had them winning)
Inter could not beat Palermo (drawing 0-0)
Empoli lost at home to Atlanta (we thought they'd win)

Value Betting Draw System.
The value betting system finished all square - with one of the three matches finishing all squre to get our money back.
- Siena v Reggina @ 3.00 - ended 0-0 :-)
- Lazio v Udinese @ 3.00 - Udinese won 1-0
- Torino v Cagliari @ 3.20 - Torino won 2-0

Overall that's 8 bets - and just three winners - but importantly we didn't lose money and did OK on a weekend where upsets hit some other punting systems hard.

800 units staked and 835 units returned for a small +35 unit profit.
I'll try to lock in better returns next week.

Stumble It!

Italy : Weekend Betting Sheet Oct 27/28

Next we head to Italy, and see if we can do an "Italian Job" on the bookmakers prices in Serie A.



The sheet has quite a few picks this week - and several away picks which is always a tricky thing to bet on in Italy.

LIKELY WINNERS
The sheet is backing three of the the big sides to win on the road in Italy this weekend.

The first two games might not surprise as Juventus to win at Napoli and Inter Milan to win at Palermo will appeal to a lot of punters especially with prices above even money.

But the sheet also likes the look of AS Roma to win at AC Milan as well, although remember that it does not take potential injuries into account so Totti's absence could be vital.

On the home front - probable wins are seleected for Empoli to be Atlanta and Parma to beat Livorno and again the prices are remarkable good.

VALUE BETTING
If you're value betting in Italy that usually means taking draws - and that is exactly what the system selects this weekend with three likely ties :
- Siena v Reggina @ 3.00
- Lazio v Udinese @ 3.00
- Torino v Cagliari @ 3.20

Good luck if you're punting.

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Italy : Weekend Betting Sheet Oct 20/21

Here is the betting spreadsheet for the Itaian Serie A for the weekend of October 20th/21st, 2007.

Likely home wins for :
-----------------------
AS Roma to beat Napoli @ 1.40 at Interwetten
Fiorentina to beat Siena @ 1.40 a Interwetten
AC Milan to beat Empoli @ 1.27 at Betsson
Atlanta to beat Torino @ 2.30 at Bet365
Sampdoria to beat Parma @ 1.85 at EuroBet
Juventus to beat Genoa @ 1.42 at Betsson

And a probable away win for :
-----------------------------
Inter Milan to win at Reggina @ 1.50 at Bet365

The discovered value systems indicate that the wins for Roma, Fiorentina and Juventus are worth taking.

Good luck.

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Italian Football : Betting Spreadsheet Sep 29-30

We've got the Italian football betting spreadsheet online for the weekend now - with the popular Gooners Guide "discovered value" systems all posted on the forum.

Link : The Sheet -> Serie A - 29/30 Sept

The DV-DRAW system has been going great guns so far this season in Italy - correctly identifying 15 draws from 24 attempts and returning a yield of over 90% so far.

Of course it cannot continue to run this week - bookmakers would go broke if that happened - but it's been a great ride - and the system has thrown up 5 more draw picks for this weekend.

We've had several queries about how we do the picks - and although I'm not going to divulge the complete secret - I will let you see this picture of the backroom staff prepraring the sheets ...
:-)

Good luck with your bets this weekend.

RELATED LINKS :
Gooners Guide : Italian football Betting Previews
BookieLabRat : Live Italian Football Betting Odds
Livescore : Live football scores from around Europe

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Italian midweek spreadsheet up

There is a round of midweek action in Serie A - and now that we've got the site back up and running we've been able to post our home work.

We've done all the calculations and premutations for the midweek games in Italy and posted the spreadsheet with a few betting notes into the forum

The Sheet -> Italian midweek

Four "likely winners" :
-----------------------------
Inter Milan @ 1.40
Napoli @ 1.86
Juventus @ 1.28
and AC Milan (away) @ 2.33

The discovered value system suggests three bets (two repeats of above).
-----------------------------
DV-Home ::: Inter Milan @ 1.40
DV-Draw ::: Lazio v Cagliari @ 3.30
DV-Away ::: AC Milan @ 2.33

Good luck.

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European Football Sheets online 1/2 Sep

It's been a busy week - but I've finally got all three of my European football prediction spreadsheets up and posted onto the forum.

Direct Links :
The Sheet --> German Bundesliga 1/2 Sep
The Sheet --> Italian Serie A 1/2 Sep
The Sheet --> English Premier League 1/2 Sep

In each of the forum threads I've also tried to outline the "most likely" winners for the weekend - and also the "discovered value' picks that are indicated using a secondary checking method that I am using.

please remember that nothing is certain in football betting - and if you do decide to bet then you acknowledge the personal decisions and risks that you are taking.

(What I'm saying here is don't come whining to me on Monday if these don't happen to win - I've tried as hard as I can to input all the accurate data - but sometimes things just don't go our way!!)

Also remember that this wekend we are trying to raise money for the Greek Wildfire Tragedy and are asking for winning punters to simply donate 5% or 10% of any profits that they make from the spreadsheet picks this weekend to this worthwhile cause.

If there is any Karma then you can be positive in knowing that this decision will bring you good luck - and hopefully great returns.

Good luck everyone - catch you next week - or feel free to post any and all questions on the forum.

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Weekend Football Speadsheets Online

The latest prediction spreadsheets for England, Germany and Italy are online in the Best of the Bets Forum.

Check out the forum for the threads where the sheets are posted along with some pointers on the best betting options and a couple of betting systems.

Direct links :
- The Sheet -> Italy - 25/26 August
- The Sheet-> England 25/26 August
- The Sheet -> German Bundesliga 24/26 August

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Mar 17/18 Weekend Spreadsheets out now

How's your week gone?

Hopefully you didn't blow your betting bank on the Cheltenham festival and you've got some cash left for the weekends football.

I've posted all three weekend sheets (England, Germny and Italy) on the forum in their respective threads now - and it's a bit of a mixed bag this week.

Here's a quick summary by country.

ENGLAND - LIKELY BETS
There are four probable home winners forecast by the spreadsheet in the English Premier League this weekend :
- Chelsea (85%) to beat Sheffield United @ 1.20
- Tottenham (77%) to beat Watford @ 1.50
- Manchester United (76%) to beat Bolton Wanderers @ 1.33
- Blackburn Rovers (66%) to beat West Ham @ 1.75

and there is also a "half" recommendation for :
- Reading (61%) to beat Portsmouth

ENGLAND - VALUE BETS
There are three home sides who look reasonable "value" with Reading, Tottenham, and Blackburn all seen as giving at least 115% value options.

The sheet also thinks that the price of 3.40 for draws in Aston Villa v Liverpool and Everton v Arsenal look bit over-priced.

GERMANY - LIKELY BETS
Nothing appears too liekly on Saturday - but the two Sunday games look to have their chances for the home sides :
- Leverkusen (66%) to beat Monchengladbach @ 1.73
- Werder Bremen (64%) to beat Mainz @ 1.45

GERMANY - VALUE BETS
One option for value seekers may be to oppose Bayern Munich on Saturday - they've lost a lot of road games and Eintracht Frankfurt are priced at a high 5.50 to score a home win.

Elsewhere you could consider taking either Hamburg or Bochum to score suprise away wins at nice prices.

ITALY - LIKELY BETS
Italy provides us with the only "likely" away win of the wekend - and no surprises that it's Inter Milan that is picked - along with two obvious home win choices :
- AC Milan (75%) to beat Atalanta @ 1.36
- Inter Milan (67%) to win at Ascoli @ 1.40
- Lazio (65%) to beat Empoli @ 1.67

Good luck with your punting - feel free to drop by the forum and offer any comments.

Stumble It!

The Sheets - England / Italy / Germany - 3rd/4th Mar

Hello - thanks for checking out the blog today.

Because I'm running a bit behind schedule this weekend we're going to do things a little differently today, as I'm going to discuss each sheet briefly and then point you to the Betting Forum where the sheets are posted and you can join in the discussion.

ENGLISH SHEET. (FORUM LINK - or go DIRECT TO POST )

LIKELY BETS
===========================
Arsenal to beat Reading.
Chelsea to win at Portsmouth.

Of course the sheet knows nothing about injuries to John Terry, or to Thierry Henry, or about upcoming European geames (etc) so you have to apply your own modifiers to those percentage numbers and decide whether it's still worth a play.

VALUE BETS
=================================
An interesting sheet for the weekend with 6 teams raising the GREEN FLAG for value :

Liverpool to beat Manchester Utd
Arsenal to beat Reading
Fulham to beat Aston Villa
Sheff Utd to beat Everton
Portsmouth to beat Chelsea
West Ham to beat Tottenham

Place six singles and if you get three or more winners then you'll be in profit.

ITALIAN SHEET. (FORUM LINK - or go DIRECT TO POST )

LIKELY BETS
=============================
There are three games that most people would pick and all of them appear to be at fair or better value too.

Milan AC to beat Chievo @ 1.40 (Saturday)
Fiorentina to beat Torino @ 1.40
Lazio to beat Sampdoria @ 1.80


GERMAN SHEET. (FORUM LINK - or go DIRECT TO POST )

LIKELY BETS
===================
Only one is recommended by both halves of the sheet with Werder Bremen the obvious choice to beat Bochum - but the price of 1.33 is very poor value.

There are two "half recommendations :
Wolfsburg to beat Mochengladbach at 1.95
Dortmund to beat Cottbus @ 1.65

The first bet is on Saturday and seems to have some value as well

VALUE BETS
=============================
Hertha Berlin to beat Bayern Munich at 3.30 !!
3.30 !! that's a good price.
:-)

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The Sheet - Italian Serie A - Feb 28th

Here is the sheet for Wednesday night's games :


Click the image to see the full sheet

There is not too much to say about the four "likely picks" indicated on the sheet with the (+) home wins and (-) away wins as they're all fair solidly backed up by league standings and current form.

LIKELY RESULTS
====================
Inter Milan (77%) to beat Udinese @ 1.33
Lazio (66%) to beat Catania @ 1.53
Empoli (64%) to beat Messina @ 1.73
AS Roma (55%) to win at Chievo @ 2.10 (Asian Handicap)

Interestingly - all of these games are best priced at Bet365 and because each bet is considered to be a fair value (100%) or better it's one of those rare cases where a set of doubles or treble bets are worth a shot.

VALUE PICKS :
===================
And here are a few bets that have good enough odds to be considered value - but they are less likely to win on an individual basis.

Cagliari (31%) to win at Torino @ 4.20 (129% value)
The bet here is really betting against Torino who have lost 6 in a row and just sacked their manager.

Cagliari are just 1-5-5 on the road though ... so perhaps taking them at +1/4 ball on the AH (price is 2.03) is a better play.

AC Milan (48%) to win at Palermo @ 2.70 (131% value)
That's right - AC milan have become so poor that they're no longer an automatic "likely" pick and are actually at value at Betsson.

Milan might have squeaked home 1-0 on the weekend - but they're 7-3-0 in their last 10 SErie A games ... so it's a good price against Palermo who are 5th but haven't won in their last three games.

Ascoli (46%) to beat Parma @ 2.88 (133% value)
A real relegation scrap as Ascoli (20th on 14 points) face Parma (19th on 16 points).

Ascoli have picked up a pair of draws in thier last two games - but will be without several players for this game after picking up some suspensions on the weekend.

Parma drew 3-3 at Udinese on the weekend for their first point in four games, and they're 0-5-8 on the road.

sUMMARY
====================
So there's seven bets for you to consider on Wednesday night in Italy - you should not expect them all to win as the sheet can only forecast mathematically - but I'm looking for 5-6 winners from that set

... so it's just a question of spotting and avoiding the upset result - or staking correctly so that you make a profit anyway.

Good luck with your punts.

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The Sheet - Italian Serie A - Feb 24th/25th

The Italian sheet continues to pick a lot of home winners - although nothing for the two games being played on Saturday.

LIKELY WINNERS
=================
On Sunday we have five likely home winners :

Milan_AC vs Sampdoria
Udinese vs Parma
Livorno vs Ascoli
Fiorentina vs Empoli
Roma_AS vs Reggina

All of them are rated between 92% to 120% of fair value suggesting that they're reasonable bets to consider but we will still have tob check out team news and such like.

VALUE BETS
=================
Betting value on Italian football is much harder to find - as my statistics on the last three seasons show that blind betting (taking level stakes on every match) would have lost -13% on home sides and -18% on away sides.

These numbers reflect the fact that the betting markets on Italian football are far less competitive when compared to the English league ... and you need a bigger margin.

There are two value bets on offer :
Fiorentina to beat Empoli @ 1.60 at Canbet
Chievo to beat Torino @ 2.20 at Eurobet.

I'll ignore the 10.00 (9/1) being offered at Betfred for Catania to beat Inter Milan even though it is far above the rest of the market - as at 13% it's too much of an outsider for me ... (although the draw at 4.50 might be worth a sneaky wager).

Good luck with your punts.

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The Sheet - Italian Football - Feb 17th/18th

(Click image to see the full sheet)

With the English Premier League taking another break due to the FA Cup - we have to turn our attention to Europe and Italy in particular to find quality league action.

Most likely wins :
==================================
The sheet has come up with four games where the home team is considered to be the most likely result - and here is a list of the sides who are at 55% or better :
- Inter Milan (74%) to beat Cagliari (1.20 @ Interwetten)
- Palermo (57%) to beat Chievo (1.57 @ Bet365)
- Lazio (61%) to beat Torino (1.62 @ BetDirect)
- Livorno (58%) to beat Messina (1.72 @ Ladbrokes)

Value punting :
==================================
However, I'm a big fan of looking for value when taking a punt - and so I'll only have a shot on those home teams where they've got green ink in the value column - meaning that the odds being paid are better than the risk that I'm taking.

I see two home sides that are worth a shot :
- Empoli 27% @ 4.35 to beat AS Roma (117% value)
- Catania 37% @ 4.00 to beat Fiorentina (146% value)

Staking suggestion for value bets (using a Kelly Criteria variant) :
- Catania 100 units.
- Empoli 50 units.

Goood luck with your Italian Bets.

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The Sheet - Italian Football - Jan 27th/28th

(Click image to see the full sheet)

With the English Premier League taking a week - and the FA Cup always a bit unpredictable - we have to turn our attention to Italy to find quality league action.

Fortunately the sheet has responded with quite a few picks.

Most likely wins :
==================================
The sheet has come up with six games where the home team is considered to be the most likely result - and here is a list of the sides who are at 55% or better :
- AS Roma (58%) to beat Siena at Bet365
- Cagliari (55%) to beat Reggina at EuroBet
- AC Milan (85%) to beat Parma at Bet365
- Fiorentina (86%) to beat Livorno at Interwetten
- Atalanta (60%) to beat Catania at PaddyPower
- Chievo (56%) to beat Empoli at EuroBet

Value punting :
==================================
However, I'm a big fan of looking for value when taking a punt - and so I'll only have a shot on those home teams where they've got green ink in the value column - meaning that the odds being paid are better than the risk that I'm taking.

I see four home sides that are worth a shot :
- Sampdoria 22% @ 6.00 to beat Inter Milan (132% value)
- Cagliari 55% @ 2.15 to beat Reggina (117% value)
- Fiorentina 86% @ 1.55 to beat Livorno (133% value)
- Chievo 56% @ 2.40 to beat Empoli (135% value)

Staking suggestion for value bets (using a Kelly Criteria variant) :
- Fiorentina 200 units
- Cagliari & Chievo 100 units each
- Sampdoria 25 units.

Handicap options :
==================================
For punters that prefer taking thea asian handicap style of betting - the sheet also has four selections - although the calculations are not shown - so I'll list them out here.

Saturday :
Take Udinese +0.25 @ 1.86 to beat Torino

Sunday :
Take Chievo -0.25 @ 1.93 to beat Empoli
Take Fiorentina -1.00 @ 2.05 to beat Livorno
Take Cagliari -0.25 @ 1.93 to beat Reggina

(all handicap odds from PinnacleSports)

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The Sheet - Italy Serie A - Dec 23rd

( Click the sheet to see the full image )

And here is the second of the Saturday sheets as we take in the Serie A action - which plays it's last round before a short mid-winter break.

In midweek the Italian Sheet went 3-0 on it's recommendations - but as always I will remind you that past performance is not guarantee of future returns so you always need to make up your own mind and not bet blindly.

We have three very strong home win recommendations here - with all teams rated as 75+ likely to win - and also considered to be at fair value too.
- Fiorentina to beat Messina (1.30 @ BetFred)
- Inter Milan to beat Atalanta (1.25 @ Bet365)
- AS Roma to beat Cagliari (1.25 @ Bet365)

There is also a half recommendation for
- AC Milan to win at Udinese (2.20 @ Bet365)

If you like value bets - where the odds seem to be greater than the risk then there are two other matches to take a look at :
- Liverno are considered 51% likely to beat Torino (2.25 @ Bet365)
- and the Draw between Parma and Lazio is a 39% chance and paying 3.00.

Ok ... that's the lot for Saturday good luck with it.

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The Sheet -> Italy Serie A - Dec 20th

(Click the sheet image to see the full size version)

Here is the sheet for all the Wednesday night Serie A football in Italy, but once again there is nothing too stunning is what the maths have to say.

There are 3 picks that look like probably winners - but annoyingly they are all at less than fair value :

- AC Milan to beat Catania -- Odds 1.36 at BetFred
- Palermo to beat Ascoli ---- Odds 1.29 at BetFred
- AS Roma to win at Torino -- Odds 2.00 at Interwetten

Note that there is a bit of anamoly with the AS Roma pick, there are just 7 other games where the away side has been favoured this much, and it's gone badly for them with a 2-3-2 record.

I still go with AS Roma here as that -300 point margin equates to a whole goal advantage and I'd make this about 55%-60% likely to finish in an away win.

---

Elsewhere the sheet sees potential value in big underdogs playing away from home - but I think that's not a likely scenario - and the bookmakers know it too which is why they're offering such big prices.

However, there might be a bit of value in taking home side Cagliari when they face Fiorentina. I know that Fiorentina are 4th but they're just 3-2-3 on the road ... while Cagliari are 2-5-1 at home.

A draw is very possible (Cagliari have drawn 10 of 16 games in Serie A) and I'd rather make sure it was on my side in any bet - so let's take the asian handicap bet and back Cagliari with a start of +1/4.

(Best price is 1.83 at PinnacleSports)

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The Sheet - Italy - Dec 16/17

Click to see the full size sheet.

Very tricky in Italy this week with 6 of the 10 games within 100 ranking points so many of the games are rated as high draw chances.

The picks :
- Inter Milan to beat Messina
- Udinese to beat Cagliari (just 5 pts off)

Possible value in :
- Ascoli (124%) to beat Torino @ 3.00
- Catania (114%) to beat Empoli @ 2.20

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The Sheet - Italy - Dec 10

(Click the image to view the full sheet)

Saturday proved to be a good day for the sheet in England - so here is the sheet calculations for Sunday in Serie A.

Two games are chosen by both halves of the sheet - with Atalanta and AC Milan seen as likely winners and the price on Atalanta is a good one too.

Elsewhere Inter Milan are seen as likely winners - but the price is awful - so value punters may actually be tempted on Empoli at prices higher than 7.00 and a 30% win chance.

Finally - the SONAS half of the sheet thinks that Cagliari are worth a shot at home to Parna ... although the vlaue calculation says that it's only fair value at best.

OK .. I hope that helps you on Sunday.

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