The Gooners Guide to Gambling Blog

Monday, February 22, 2010

Feb 20-21st : 9-man Inter Milan held by Sampdoria but still lead Serie A

Inter Milan 0-0 Sampdoria

Leaders Inter Milan had Walter Samuel and Ivan Cordoba sent off in a bad-tempered goalless draw with Sampdoria at the San Siro.

Inter found themselves down to nine men with 52 minutes to play following the dismissals of Samuel and Cordoba, while referee Paolo Tagliavento also sent off Sampdoria's Giampaolo Pazzini midway through the second half.

Despite the numerical advantage, Samp could not find their way past a resilient Inter side who secured Mourinho's 130th home league match without defeat, stretching across spells with Porto, Chelsea and Inter.

AS Roma 1-0 Catania

Mirko Vucinic's first-half goal earned Roma a 1-0 win at home to Catania on Sunday and moved them to within five points of Serie A leaders Inter Milan.

The Montenegrin scored in the 18th minute as the Giallorossi won for the seventh game running in the league.

Bari 0-2 AC Milan

AC Milan, who have a game in hand on the top two, are two points further back after a 2-0 win at Bari.

Marco Borriello opened the scoring two minutes before the break and Alexandre Pato doubled the advantage in the 69th minute as Leonardo's side bounced back from their Champions League defeat to Manchester United in midweek.

Bologna 1-2 Juventus

Goals from Diego and Antonio Candreva gave Juventus back-to-back league wins for the first time since November with a 2-1 success at Bologna.

Diego's early goal for the Old Lady was cancelled out in the 50th minute by Antonio Busce before substitute Candreva sealed the points midway through the second half to continue Juve's improvement under Alberto Zaccheroni.

Palermo 3-1 Lazio

Palermo claimed a 3-1 win at home to Lazio to move up to fifth - level on points with Napoli and Sampdoria in sixth and seventh.

Abel Hernandez opened the scoring within a minute, Fabrizio Miccoli added a second from the spot midway through the first half and Antonio Nocerino made it 3-0 after 75 minutes.

Aleksandar Kolarov pulled one back three minutes later for struggling Lazio, but it was no more than a consolation.

Italian Serie A Top Six Standings

Team        Pl  W  D L Fr Ag Pts 
Inter Milan 25 16  7 2 49 20  55 
AS Roma     25 15  5 5 43 27  50 
AC Milan    24 14  6 4 41 24  48 
Juventus    25 12  5 8 40 33  41 
Palermo     25 11  7 7 35 31  40 
Napoli      25 10 10 5 32 30  40

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Monday, February 15, 2010

Feb 12th-14th : Napoli hold Inter Milan but Inter are still 7 points clear

A round-up of the top action in Italy this weekend.

Napoli 0-0 Inter Milan

Leaders Inter Milan were held to a goalless draw by Napoli, meaning their lead at the end of the weekend stands at seven points over Roma.

Hosts Napoli had enough chances to win several games and struck the woodwork twice - via Marek Hamsik and Fabio Quagliarella - on a frustrating night against the defending champions.

Inter also hit the frame of the goal through Sulley Muntari and improved in the second half to claim a point.

As a result of their point, Napoli move back up to fourth and keep their hopes of qualifying for next season's Champions League alive.

AS Roma 4-1 Palermo

On Saturday, Roma moved back up to second place in the table with an emphatic 4-1 victory over Palermo.

Having dropped down the standings after AC Milan beat Udinese on Friday night, Roma wasted no time in taking second spot back.

A Cesare Bovo own goal in the 33rd minute set them on their way to victory with a scoreline that was far more convincing than their performance at the Stadio Olimpico.

Julio Baptista added the second in the 53rd minute before Matteo Brighi got his name on the scoresheet 10 minutes later.

Fabrizio Miccoli reduced the arrears with a dubious penalty in the 80th minute but a stunning strike from John-Arne Riise three minutes later secured the win for Claudio Ranieri's in-form Giallorossi.

AC Milan 3-2 Udinese

Ronaldinho inspired AC Milan to a 3-2 victory over Udinese, warming them up for the visit of Manchester United in the Champions League on Tuesday with three more Serie A points.

Although the Brazilian did not put his own name on the scoresheet, he set up all three goals.

Klaas-Jan Huntelaar scored the first after seven minutes and substitute Alexandre Pato added the second five minutes before the break.

Antonio Floro Flores gave Udinese hope with a goal on the stroke of half-time before Huntelaar's second in the 57th minute restored the home side's two-goal advantage.

Antonio Di Natale pulled Udinese back into the game in the 86th minute, but they could not find an equaliser.

Sampdoria 2-0 Fiorentina

Sampdoria gabbed their fourth win as they downed an out-of-sorts Fiorentina 2-0.

Franco Semioli put the Blucerchiati on their way to victory in the 16th minute and Giampaolo Pazzini sealed the win in the 40th minute with his first goal against his former club.

Fiorentina are languishing in 11th position and struggling for form ahead of a testing Champions League tie against Bayern Munich on Wednesday.

Juventus 3-2 Genoa

A disputed penalty allowed Juventus to win their first game under coach Alberto Zaccheroni as they came from behind to earn a 3-2 victory against Genoa.

Genoa went ahead with a goal from captain Marco Rossi in the 16th minute, but Amauri brought the Bianconeri level shortly before the break.

Alessandro Del Piero put the home team in front after an hour, but Rossi struck back immediately with an equaliser Genoa more than deserved.

However, the game was decided in the 78th minute by a penalty earned and converted by Del Piero, although doubts remain whether it should have been a spot-kick in the first place.

Italian Serie A Top Six Standings

Team        Pl  W D L Fr Ag Pts 
Inter Milan 24 16-6-2 49:20  54 
Roma        24 14-5-5 42:27  47 
AC Milan    23 13-6-4 39:24  45 
Napoli      24 10-9-5 32:27  39 
Sampdoria   24 11-6-7 32:31  39 
Juventus    24 11-5-8 38:32  38

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Monday, February 08, 2010

Feb 6-7th : Inter Milan in command on top of Italy Serie A

Inter Milan moved 10 points clear of city rivals AC Milan, and 8 clear at the top of Serie A with a convincing 3-0 victory against in-form Cagliari at the San Siro on Sunday.

Inter Milan 3-0 Cagliari

Winter signing Goran Pandev gave them the perfect start after five minutes' play with Argentinian duo Walter Samuel (20) and Diego Milito (47) wrapping the game up for Jose Mourinho's men.

The result ended a six-game unbeaten run for Massimiliano Allegri's Cagliari, denting their hopes of European qualification.

Bologna 0-0 AC Milan

AC Milan fell 10 points behind city rivals Inter after an uninspiring goalless draw at Bologna.

A win for Leonardo's men was key to their hopes of keeping the pressure on their great rivals in the race for the Scudetto.

But Milan's failure to find the back of the net - although they went very close hitting the woodwork twice - means athat Milan slip back to 3rd on the table.

Fiorentina 0-1 AS Roma

Roma to move second in the table as Mirko Vucinic got the only goal for the game in the 1-0 win at Fiorentina.

The Viola were left empty-handed after one of their most impressive performances of the last few months while Roma extended their excellent run of form to 12 Serie A games without defeat.

Udinese 3-1 Napoli

Antonio di Natale scored twice in injury-time to complete a hat-trick for Udinese in a 3-1 victory against previously in-form Napoli.

Di Natale punished his hometown club, who had goalscorer Christian Maggio sent off just before half-time, to give the Bianconeri a first win in eight Serie A contests.

It provided Gianni De Biasi with a first victory since he took charge on December 22, easing the club's relegation fears and enabling them to put behind them the misery of the midweek Coppa Italia semi-final defeat to Roma.

Serie A Top Eight Team Standings

Team        Pl  W D L Fr Ag Pts 
Inter Milan 22 16-4-2 48:19  52 
Roma        23 13-5-5 38:26  44 
AC Milan    22 12-6-4 36:22  42 
Napoli      23 10-8-5 32:27  38 
Palermo     23 10-7-6 31:26  37 
Sampdoria   23 10-6-7 30:31  36 
Juventus    23 10-5-8 35:30  35 
Genoa       23 10-5-8 36:36  35 

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Monday, February 01, 2010

30-31st Jan : Round-up Of Italy Serie A results

Parma P-P Inter Milan

Inter Milan's match at Parma was postponed due to snow, and has been re-scheduled for February 10th.

AC Milan 1-1 Livorno

AC Milan missed the chance to close the gap on Serie A leaders Inter Milan to six points as they were held to a 1-1 draw by relegation-threatened Livorno on Sunday.

Massimo Ambrosini opened the scoring for Milan in the final minute of the first half but Livorno levelled eight minutes after the break thanks to Cristiano Lucarelli.

Juventus 1-1 Lazio

New Juventus boss Alberto Zaccheroni had to settle for a point at Turin's Stadio Olimpico in his first match in charge as they played out a 1-1 draw with Lazio.

The former Lazio manager saw his team take the lead through Alessandro Del Piero's 70th-minute penalty. However, that was as good as it got for Juve as Stefano Mauri grabbed the equaliser eight minutes later by volleying home a cross from Mauro Zarate.

The result lifted the Turin outfit to fifth in the standings, and leaves Lazio two points clear of the drop zone.

Napoli 0-0 Genoa

On Saturday Napoli were held to a 0-0 draw at the Stadio San Paolo by their bogey team Genoa.

Napoli have not beaten Genoa since both sides returned to the top flight of Italian football two-and-a-half years ago, while their last home victory over the Ligurians dates back over a decade to when the clubs were in Serie B.

Bari 4-2 Palermo

Bari defeated 10-man Palermo 4-2 at the Stadio San Nicola.

Leonardo Bonucci and Edgar Alvarez gave the hosts a two-goal lead within the first seven minutes, but strikes from Edison Cavani and Javier Pastore either side of half-time brought Palermo level.

A red card shown to midfielder Fabio Liverani in the 56th minute tipped the scales back in Bari's favour before a penalty from Paulo Barreto and a fourth goal from Vladimir Koman earned them all three points to get them back in the reckoning for a place in Europe next season.

Italian Serie A Top Six Standings

Team        Pl  W D L Fr Ag Pts 
Inter Milan 21 15-4-2 45 19 49 
AC Milan    21 12-5-4 36 22 41 
AS Roma     22 12-5-5 37 26 41 
Napoli      22 10-8-4 31 24 38 
Juventus    22 10-4-8 34 29 34 
Palermo     22  9-7-6 29 25 34

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Monday, January 25, 2010

23-24 Jan : Weekend wrap-up of Italian Serie A

Inter Milan 2-0 AC Milan

Nine-man Inter Milan moved nine points clear of city rivals AC Milan at the top of Serie A thanks to a 2-0 win at the San Siro on Sunday.

Diego Milito gave the Nerazzurri the lead in the 10th minute, but they were forced to play over two-thirds of the game with 10 men after Wesley Sneijder was sent off.

Goran Pandev's 65th-minute strike secured the points for Jose Mourinho's side, who lost Lucio to a red card in stoppage time before Ronaldinho saw his penalty saved at the end of a dramatic derby.

Juventus 1-2 AS Roma

On Saturday former Juventus coach Claudio Ranieri returned to haunt his old club and pile the misery on his successor Ciro Ferrara as Roma ran out 2-1 winners at the Stadio Olimpico.

Alessandro Del Piero gave the home side the lead with a fine goal in the 51st minute, but Francesco Totti equalised from the penalty spot in the 68th minute.

Juve lost goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon to a red card in the 83rd minute before John Arne Riise clinched the points for Roma deep in stoppage time.

Livorno 0-2 Napoli

Christian Maggio put Napoli ahead before the interval and Luca Cigarini made sure of the points in stoppage time, moments after Livorno goalkeeper Alfonso De Lucia was sent off.

Serse Cosmi stepped down as coach of Livorno following his team's defeat.

Palermo 3-0 Fiorentina

Abel Hernandez scored twice in the first half as Palermo enhanced their European chances with a comfortable 3-0 win over Fiorentina.

An Igor Budan strike just before the hour mark completed the scoring for Palermo who maintained their unbeaten home record to move up to fifth in the table.

Italian Serie A Top Six Teams

Team        Pl  W D L  Fr Ag Pts 
Inter Milan 21 15-4-2  45:19  49 
AC Milan    20 12-4-4  35:21  40 
AS Roma     21 11-5-5  35:25  38 
Napoli      21 10-7-4  31:24  37 
Palermo     21  9-7-5  27:21  34 
Juventus    21 10-3-8  33:28  33

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Sunday, January 17, 2010

Milan romp to 4-0 win over Siena to close the gap on Inter to 6 points

Ronaldinho netted a hat-trick as AC Milan eased to a 4-0 victory over bottom club Siena and cut Inter Milan's lead at the top of Serie A to six points.

AC Milan 4-0 Siena
Ronaldinho struck a first-half penalty, a second-half header and a long-range shot late on after Marco Borriello had hit the Rossoneri's second.

Siena's efforts to kick-start a dismal season were undermined by the 10th-minute dismissal of goalkeeper Gianluca Curci, which led to Ronaldinho's opening spot-kick as Leonardo's side cut Inter's lead after their 2-2 draw at Bari on Saturday.

AS Roma 3-0 Genoa
Luca Toni bagged his first goals since joining the Roma on loan from Bayern Munich this month, scoring on the stroke of half-time after team-mate Simone Perrotta had put Roma ahead in the 17th minute.

And Toni put the game beyond Genoa's reach on the hour mark to put the capital city club into 3rd spot.

Napoli 0-0 Palermo
Napoli drew 0-0 with Palermo in Naples in a dour game that had few real moments of danger after Fabrizio Miccoli missed a first half penalty for the visitors.

Chievo 1-0 Juventus
Juventus slipped to fifth in the standings after the Turin giants lost 1-0 at Chievo.

Gennaro Sardo's stunning first-half strike proved to be the only goal of the game as Juve turned in a performance lacking energy and confidence which comes on the back of a 3-0 hammering at the hands of AC Milan in their last league outing.

Serie A TOP SIX STANDINGS

CLUB        Pl  W D L  GD Pts 
Inter Milan 20 14-4-2 +24  46 
AC Milan    19 12-4-3 +16  40 
AS Roma     20 10-5-5  +9  35 
Napoli      20  9-7-4  +5  34 
Juventus    20 10-3-7  +6  33 
Palermo     20  8-7-5  +3  31 

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Monday, January 11, 2010

AC Milan beat Juventus 3-0 in Turin to keep in touch with Inter

The Serie A Scudetto will be a race between Inter Milan and AC Milan after AC Milan won 3-0 away at Juventus to keep the pressure on Serie A table-toppers and city rivals Inter Milan.

Alessandro Nesta put Milan ahead in the 29th minute with Ronaldinho adding a second in the 72nd minute as Juve struggled to produce a performance that would ease the calls for Ferrara's head.

Another goal from Ronaldinho two minutes from time came amid protests from the home fans, who shrouded the field with smoke by burning any item possible, and sealed the win for Milan - now eight points behind Inter with a game in hand.

Napoli beat Sampdoria 1-0 to remain in 4th, and in the race for Champions League football after substitute German Denis came off the bench to score the winner against Sampdoria on Sunday.

On Saturday night Inter Milan twice came from behind to claim a thrilling 4-3 victory over Siena as Wesley Sneijder and Walter Samuel scored late goals in the top-versus-bottom clash at the San Siro.

And a first-minute goal from Daniele De Rossi was enough to give 10-man Roma a 1-0 victory over Chievo which moves them up to fifth in the table.

Rossi headed in from a corner to give the hosts the lead at the Stadio Olimpico, but they had goalkeeper Doni sent off after he handled the ball outside the area after coming out as Elvis Abbruscato charged through on goal.

CLUB        Pl  W D L  GD Pts 
Inter Milan 19 14-3-2 +24  45 
AC Milan    18 11-4-3 +12  37 
Juventus    19 10-3-6  +7  33 
Napoli      19  9-6-4  +5  33 
AS Roma     19  9-5-5  +6  32 
Fiorentina  18  9-3-6  +8  30

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Sunday, December 06, 2009

Juventus beat inter Milan 2-1 while AC Milan thrash Sampdoria 3-0

Juve beat leaders Inter 2-1 as Mourinho sent off
Claudio Marchisio scored a superb goal gave 10-man Juventus a 2-1 win over leaders Inter Milan in an enthralling game on Saturday.

Italy midfielder Marchisio danced past Walter Samuel and chipped the ball over Inter goalkeeper Julio Cesar just before the hour mark to inflict Inter’s second league defeat this term.

Juventus took the lead after 20 minutes when Diego's free kick was headed on by Giorgio Chiellini and the ball deflected in off Inter's Lucio.

Inter manager Jose Mourinho sarcastically applauded the referee after the goal for awarding the free kick and was immediately sent to the stands by the referee.

Inter Milan equalised after 26 minutes when a Dejan Stankovic’s cross was headed in by an unmarked Samuel Eto'o.

Second-placed Milan overpower Sampdoria 3-0
AC Milan scored three goals in the first 23 minutes to seal an easy victory over Sampdoria.

Ronaldinho set up the first two goals but then went off with a minor hamstring strain with one eye on Tuesday's Champions League clash at FC Zurich, where a win will put Milan through.

Striker Marco Borriello headed in the Brazilian's cross after just two minutes for his fourth league goal of the season.

Ronaldinho, playing on the left of a new three-man attack, then laid the ball off for midfielder Clarence Seedorf score just inside the box after 21 minutes.

Alexandre Pato scored soon after to secure a fifth straight league win for Leonardo’s side, who have recovered from a shaky start to the campaign.

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Monday, August 03, 2009

David Trezeguet decides to stay at Juventus

David Trezeguet has decided to stay at Juventus, at least until the end of the 2009/10 season.

The 31-year-old French striker has attracted interest from Italian clubs AC Milan and Roma, although Juve recently said they would only be prepared to sell him to a club outside of Serie A.

Trezeguet is quote on Juventus's official website: "I am definitely staying at Juventus for the whole season. After ten years in Turin I don't think it's right to leave now.

"At the back of this decision is the decisive support of those who backed me in the recent period - that is, the management, the coach, my mates and the supporters."

Trezeguet is under contract with the Bianconeri until 2011.

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Monday, June 15, 2009

INTER MILAN TARGET CHELSEA DUO DECO AND CARVALHO

FOOTBALL: Inter Milan have confirmed their intention to sign Deco and Ricardo Carvalho from Chelsea.

Both players have been linked with a move away from Stamford Bridge this summer.

"(Inter coach Jose) Mourinho has asked us for Deco and Carvalho and we are working towards making him happy," said Inter Milan president Massimo Moratti in an interview with Gazzetta dello Sport.

"Our wish is to sign both players and I have seen that the players' intention is to join us. We still haven't reached an agreement with Chelsea but I think we will do in a short time."

Carvalho, who moved to Chelsea in 2004, endured a frustrating campaign with the Blues. Injury restricted the 31-year-old to just 18 appearances this season.

Deco joined Chelsea from Barcelona last summer but the 32-year-old also suffered injuries, making just 22 league appearances this campaign.

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Thursday, March 05, 2009

Madrid and Turin derby matches centre stage this Saturday

Real Madrid are trying to make makes el Derbi Madrileno their 11th successive league win in the Primera this weekend.

Real Madrid host Atletico Madrid, well aware that Atletico devlivered a heavy blow to title rivals Barcelona last weekend, with a 4-3 stunning victory that cut Barca's lead at the top to a mere four points.

The two city rivals meet on Saturday at Santiago Bernabeu.

RELATED LINKS :
Real Madrid 1.79 at Globet, Atletico Madrid 5.10 at PinnacleSports
See all the Live Spanish football betting Odds at Bookielabrat.

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Serie A will share the derby spotlight over the week-end, when Juventus will face historic rivals FC Torino.

The Old Lady will need every win they can get, to close the seven-point gap that separates them from league leaders Inter Milan.

But Torino's run of five matches without defeat may spell trouble for Claudio Ranieri's men, who are also preparing for Chelsea's Champions League visit next week.

Expect plenty of tension at the Stadio Olimpico on Saturday evening.

RELATED LINKS :
Torino 3.49 at PinnacleSports, Juventus 2.35 at Centrebet,
See all the Live Italian football betting Odds at Bookielabrat.

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Betting Alert on Serie A - Canbet offer big price on Inter Milan

A potential price alert ... as Aussie bookmaker Canbet have a big price on Serie A Leaders Inter Milan.

Canbet go 2.75 on Inter Milan in thier Saturday afteroon fixture at Genoa this weekend - where most bookmakers are 2.38 to 2.40.

It's true that Inter Milan might decide to field a weak side - due to their upcoming Champions League game at Old Trafford against Manchester United (first leg 0-0).

So either Canbet have news that Inter are going to field a weaker than expected side in advance of everyone else - or they're offering a great price.

My spreadsheet ratings for this game ( Genoa v Inter Milan ) have Inter Milan as 52$ likely to win and so calculates this price as an outstanding 143% of value.

RELATED LINKS :
Canbet Bookmakers
Live Serie A Odds from Bookie Lab Rat.

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Monday, November 24, 2008

Round 13 : Inter Milan clear at top of Serie A

Serie A Betting Previews
AC Milan were held 2-2 at Torino on Sunday, leaving city rivals Inter Milan three points clear at the top of Serie A.

Torino's Alessandro Rosina scored a 78th-minute penalty, which was conceded for handball by Kakha Kaladze, to earn the hosts a draw.

Napoli are 3rd with Juventus on 24 points after being held 2-2 at home by Cagliari earlier on Sunday. Daniele Conti scored a stoppage-time equaliser for the Sardinian side after Ezequiel Lavezzi thought he had won it for Napoli with a superb late free kick.

Lazio are fifth after grabbing a 1-1 home draw with Genoa thanks to Ousmane Dabo's powerful strike that slipped through keeper Rubinho's hands 10 minutes from time.

Fiorentina round out the top six after they beat visitors Udinese 4-2 on Saturday.

AS Roma continued their return to form after a miserable start to the season with a 3-0 win at Lecce courtesy of first-half goals by Mirko Vucinic and Juan plus captain Francesco Totti's delightful chip four minutes after the break. Roma are in 15th spot.

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Sunday, November 09, 2008

Inter Milan top of Serie A table after late goals

Julio Cruz headed home in injury time to give Inter Milan a 1-0 home win over Udinese on Sunday and send the Serie A champions top of the table.

Serie A Standings
AC Milan, a point behind Inter on 23, were held 1-1 at Lecce in the late game after conceding a late equaliser.

Napoli beat Sampdoria 2-0 to be on the same points as Milan while Lazio defeated Siena 3-0 at home thanks to a brace by Tommaso Rocchi and Mauro Zarate's goal.

Alessandro Del Piero celebrated his 34th birthday by scoring a third free kick in a week to help Juventus to a 2-0 win at lowly Chievo which puts them level with Udinese on 21 points.

Genoa are a point further behind in an extremely tight top half of Serie A after Diego Milito's hat-trick sealed a 4-0 home victory over bottom side Reggina.

Fiorentina are also on 20 points following a 2-1 triumph over Atalanta.

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Friday, July 18, 2008

Ronaldinho lands in Milan - PR hype hits

Brazil star Ronaldinho has been unveiled to fans and the media at the San Siro stadium after completing his move from Barcelona to AC Milan.

The 28-year-old insisted he was fully fit despite concerns about his lifestyle and attitude in Spain.

"I have always lived a regular life and I will continue like that. I am in good physical condition" he said. "Every player dreams of playing for Milan. It is a special emotion and I hope to bring happiness to the fans."

Thousands of fans turned up at the stadium to welcome Ronaldinho to the club, with the San Siro nearly half full.

"I already feel at home here" he added - although unfortunately he was speaking in Portuguese and not Italian.

The fact that Barcelona sold the overweight Ronaldinho at a cut price fee, that Ronaldinho only wanted to move to a club that would let him play for Brazil in the Olympic football tournament, and that AC Milan are not in the Champions League this season were not discussed.

Milan need to reinvigorate the side with youth, energy and desire ... and instead they buy Ronaldinho?! Too old, too fat, and too jaded after a very successful career.

Can you see this all ending in tears in 12-18 months? Me too.

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Monday, June 02, 2008

Jose Mourinho moves in to Inter Milan job.

The former Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho has been confirmed as the new manager of Internazionale.

A press statement on the Inter Milan website read "The whole Internazionale organisation takes great pleasure in welcoming Jose Mourinho and his colleagues."

The Portuguese has signed a three-year contract with the Nerazzuri, and will work alongside his former Chelsea colleagues Rui Farias, Silvino Louro and Andre Vilas-Boas at the San Siro. Giuseppe Baresi, previously director of Inter's youth programmes, will be Mourinho's assistant.

As I revealed 6 days ago when writing about Roberto Mancini's departure, the shadow of Mourinho always loomed large over this job after it was apparent that neither of the Spanish giants wanted to try Mourinho's negative brand of football management.

The arrival of Mourinho at Inter is likely to increase the speculation over the future of several of his former Chelsea players, particularly Frank Lampard, Didier Drogba and Ricardo Carvalho.

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Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Mancini leaves Inter Milan - Mourinho to take over?

The agent of Roberto Mancini has indicated that his client is no longer the coach of Serie A outfit Internazionale, although an official announcement has yet to be made by the Italian champions.

Mancini looks to be on his way out of the club less than a fortnight after delivering the club's third consecutive Serie A title.

The 43-year-old's agent, Giorgio De Giorgis, indicated in an interview with Sportitalia television on Tuesday night that Mancini has left the club following a 25-minute meeting with Inter president Massimo Moratti earlier in the day.

The agent told Sportitalia television: "Roberto never expected it to end like this. Roberto is very disappointed also because he has not yet finished his job - he wanted to try and win even more league titles, and maybe even the Champions League."

Mancini has endured a turbulent season at the San Siro, tendering his resignation in the immediate aftermath of the club's Champions League elimination by Liverpool in March only to be talked into a rethink by Moratti.

De Giorgis also suggested that former Chelsea boss Jose Mourinho has been lined up as Mancini's replacement.

Reports in Italy suggest Mourinho arrived in Milan on Tuesday evening and may be presented as the club's new coach as early as Wednesday while Mancini has been linked with the Chelsea vacancy at Stamford Bridge.

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Sunday, May 18, 2008

Inter Milan win Serie A title - AC Milan settle for UEFA Cup


Parma 0-2 Inter Milan

Inter Milan won Serie A following a 2-0 defeat of Parma thanks to two goals from Sweden international Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

Inter needed to match any result that rivals AS Roma achieved and an early Roma goal seemed to put Inter were under pressure as they struggled to break down Parma.

But Ibrahimovic's goal after 62 minutes regained the initiative and his second after 79 minutes made certain of a third straight league title.


Catania 1-1 AS Roma

Roma conceded a late equaliser as they drew 1-1 in Sicily, after hearing that Inter had won in Parma

The results saved Catania, who had looked like they would be relegated Roma when they allowed Mirko Vucinic to give the capital side an eighth-minute lead.

But the Sicilians earned the point which preserved their top flight status thanks to an 95th-minute goal from Jorge Martinez.

This late goal condemned both Parma and Empoli to relegation.


Torino 0-1 Fiorentina

Fiorentina claimed the fourth Champions League spot with a 1-0 win at Torino, thanks to a single goal in the 75th minute through Pablo Osvaldo's bicycle kick.

It was enough to prevserve Fiorentina's 2-point advantage over AC milan and secure 4th place.


AC Milan 4-1 Udinese

AC Milan did their best at the San Siro, beating Udinese 4-1, but multiple slip-ups earlier in the season were to prove costly.

The home side had actually fallen behind when Giandomenico Mesto put Udinese ahead in the 32nd minute. Alexandre Pato equalised three minutes into the second half and Filippo Inzaghi put Milan ahead after 59 minutes.

Goals from Cafu (79) and Clarence Seedorf (88) made sure of a win - but it had little effect on the final standings.

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Monday, May 12, 2008

Inter Milan held by Siena to send title race to final weekend


Inter Milan again missed the chance to retain their Serie A title when they were held 2-2 at home by Siena on Sunday with Marco Materazzi having a penalty saved.

Second-placed AS Roma beat Atalanta 2-1 to cut the gap to one point with one round of matches remaining next weekend.

Livorno were relegated after a 1-0 defeat at home to Torino.

Fiorentina beat relegation-threatened Parma 3-1 to move into fourth spot and the final Champions league qualifying place after AC Milan lost 3-1 at Napoli and now two points behind with a game left.

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Thursday, April 17, 2008

Betting Spreadsheet - Italy numbers up.

The Gooners Numb3rs (tm) spreadsheet for the 10 Serie A games this weekend is up and online with some interesting picks.

There are three "likely picks" for Roma, Fiorentina and Inter Milan this weekend as well as three "discovered value" selections as well.

The "fix" also appears to be in on the Siena v Genoa match - where the best price for the draw is as low as 2.05 (at Bet365) and only a handful of bookmakers currently offering a price on this game.

Good luck with your punting and be careful out there.

RELATED LINKS :
Gooners Numb3rs Spreadsheet for Italy Serie A
Live Betting Odds for Serie A from BookieLabRat.com
Football Match Previews for Serie A at GoonersGuide.com

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Monday, March 03, 2008

Serie A Shocks on Sunday

Substitute Daniel Pablo Osvaldo struck an added-time winner as Fiorentina moved a point behind Juventus with a 3-2 victory in Turin – their first away victory over the Bianconeri in two decades.

SSC Napoli also enjoyed a notable success as they became the first club to beat the champions FC Internazionale Milano in Serie A this term winning 1-0.

That leaves Inter Milan (61) leading by 6 points from AS Roma (55), with Juve (48) and Fiorentina (47) battling for the Champions League spots.

Perrenial powerhouse AC Milan are in 5th spot on 43 points are are starting to run the risk of missing out on a lucrative Champions League spot next season.

The full Serie A table is available on the main Italian page on the GoonersGuide.com site.

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Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Gooners Numb3rs - ISA Midweek Spreadsheet

There is a midweek round of the Italian Serie A and the spreadsheet numb3rs are out now.

See the spreadsheet output now.

There are 4 home winners and 1 away winner predicted.
All of them at 100% or greater value.

I bet those prices don't last long.

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Sunday, December 02, 2007

Italy : Weekend Betting Sheet Dec 2nd

Click to see the full sized betting sheet
Here is the betting spreadsheet for Sunday 2nd December in Italy.

As you can see (if you clicked the sheet above to get a copy in a seperate browser) there are no huge mismatches this weekend - with all of the game rated within a MARgin of 100 (or 1 goal on average).

But there are still a couple of games that are worth a good close look :

LIKELY WINNER
-----------------------
Parma to beat Empoli @ 2.00 at Bet365

Empoli are just 1-2-5 away from home this season and have lost 3 of their last 4 road games heavily losing 0-3 each time. Of course sandwiched in between those results is that stunning 1-0 win in the San Siro against AC Milan - but that's why they call it gambling right?

VALUE SYSTEM DRAWS
-----------------------
The bookmakers seem to be cottoning onto our system this month - as we've picked out three more games worth a shot - but I notice that 3.00 is about the best price that we can get now - that days of 3.20 to 3.50 are long gone.

DRAW - Torino v Genoa @ 3.00
DRAW - Catania v Palermo @ 3.00
DRAW - Cagliari v Livorno @ 3.00

As you can see all three games have a similar rating pattern with the MARgin within about 30 and none of the sides ranked at 1,000 above.

Our research has shown that generally these teams are happy to accept a draw if it's still level with 80 minutes gone - and so draws are occuring more than 1/3 of the time.

Ok. That's the lot this week - good luck.

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Friday, November 23, 2007

Italian Football : Betting sheet Nov 24/25

click to see the fullsized Italian Sheet

Welcome back to the blog - and I've also been able to knock out the Italian sheet in plenty of time for the weekend.

One word of caution about Italian football - it seems that this season is the seaon of the draw in Serie A - as after 117 games this season draws lead all results with a 40-46-31 breakdown.

That means that home wins are running at just 34% (a huge variance on the normal 46% in Italy) and so if you're wondering why your normal home banker accumulators are not working then this might be a mjor reason.

HOME WINNERS (be careful though - read above)
----------------------------------
Inter Milan to beat Atalanta @ 1.31 at PinnacleSports
Juventus to beat Palermo @ 1.66 at Globet

AWAY WINNERS
----------------------------------
AS Roma to win at Genoa @ 2.00 at Bet365
AC Milan to win at Cagliari @ 1.65 at VCBet
Fiorentina to win at Reggina @ 2.15 at PinnacleSports

And if you're following the value DRAW system which has produced good results so far then consider :
- Napoli v Catania DRAW @ 3.48 at PinnacleSports
- Empoli v Torino DRAW @ 2.95 (available generally)

Good luck with your Italian bets this weekend.

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Saturday, November 10, 2007

Italy : Weekend Betting Sheet Nov 10/11


And I've also done the Italian betting sheet as well in time for Saturday afternoon's Serie A games.

The Italian sheet seems to be pretty consistant this weekend - with most of the betting systems coming together to provide a strong direction for punters.

Mind you - please just remember that there were SEVEN draws in the 10 games in last weeks Serie A round and it was only our VaLUE betting draw system that saved us from disaster.

The "likely winners" went 0-4 for a 400 unit loss, but the draw system managed a 3-1 performance for a 510 unit profit !! So as you can see - even with the betting sheet and the number crunching done - it's not a simple path to profits.

Ok - with that warning out of the way - onto the picks :

Likely winners are forecast by BOTH the RES and MAR systems for :
----------------------------------------------------
Sampdoria to beat Empoli
Fiorentina to beat Udinese
Juventus to win at Parma
AS Roma to beat Cagliari

While there are single picks for :
----------------------------------------------------
MAR : +83 Inter Milan to beat Lazio
RES : 54% AC Milan to win at Atlanta

The DISCOVERED VALUE draw system has three likely candidates this weekend.
----------------------------------------------------
Palermo v Napoli @ 3.00
Reggina v Genoa @ 2.90
Torino v Catania @ 3.15

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Sunday, November 04, 2007

Italy : Weekend Betting Sheet Nov 4

After watching the big game between Arsenal and Manchester United, I've sat down and worked out the betting angles for Sunday's action in Italy's Serie A.

Click the image for the full size sheet

Likely Winners
-----------------------

The sheet has recommendations on four matches likely to finish with pickable winners.

Parma to beat Siena @ 1.91 at Bet365
Cagliari to beat Sampdoria @ 2.35 at Bet365
Roma to win at Empoli @ 1.67 at Bet365
Inter Milan to win at Juventus @ 2.80 at Bet365

Discovered Value Betting
--------------------------

In terms of betting on good potential value we also have a handful of draw options to have a look at.

Analysis of the sheet has found a lucrative little "gap" in the bookie odds in Italy's Serie A league where the away team is rated as a slight favourite - specifically between 0 and -30 MARgin.

This method enables us to hit draws at a 38% rate - and is yielding positive returns (between 5% and 25$) in each of the last six seasons.

Catania v Atlanta @ 3.00
Genoa v Palermo @ 3.00
Livorno v Udinese @ 3.05
Juventus v Inter Milan @ 3.10

And also we see some value on the home win in this game too :
Cagliari to beat Sampdoria @ 2.35 at Bet365

Good luck with your Italian football bets on Sunday.

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Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Italy : Wednesday Betting Sheet Oct 31

We've got a full round of fixtures in Italy on Wednesday night and plenty of picks to consider from the sheet.



LIKELY WINNERS
There are as many as SIX likely winners picked - all of them home wins - and all of the home sides rated as a full goal better than their opponents.

Reggina to beat Livorno @ 1.91 at BetFred
Palermo to beat Parma @ 1.65 at VCBet
Juventus to beat Empoli @ 1.35 at PinnacleSports
Inter_Milan to beat Genoa @ 1.33 at PinnacleSports
Atalanta to beat Cagliari @ 1.93 at PinnacleSports
Fiorentina to beat Napoli @ 1.70 at Bet365

All of these odds are rated in black ink on the sheet meaning that they're fair odds.

(all odds updated as at 9:30am GMT)

VALUE BETTING
There are four draws and two home wins that are indicated as being potential "discovered value" bets on Wednesday night.

Udinese to draw with Torino @ 3.25 at VC Bet
Siena to draw with Catania @ 2.95 at Canbet
Sampdoria to draw with Milan_AC @ 3.20 at Bet365
Roma_AS to draw with Lazio @ 3.45 at PinnacleSports

As well as :
Reggina to beat Livorno @ 1.91 at BetFred
Palermo to beat Parma @ 1.65 at VCBet

It will be interesting to see how the two differing systems fare.

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Monday, October 29, 2007

Italy : Betting Sheet Review


A very interesting Sunday in Serie A - with AC Milan slumping to another home defeat - and it's time to check out the results to see how the sheet went.

What did we get right?
Not as much as we would have liked - but we did call the big game correctly :
Roma to win at Milan @ 3.55
Parma to beat Livorno @ 1.80

What went pear-shapped?
Juve actually lost at Napoli (we had them winning)
Inter could not beat Palermo (drawing 0-0)
Empoli lost at home to Atlanta (we thought they'd win)

Value Betting Draw System.
The value betting system finished all square - with one of the three matches finishing all squre to get our money back.
- Siena v Reggina @ 3.00 - ended 0-0 :-)
- Lazio v Udinese @ 3.00 - Udinese won 1-0
- Torino v Cagliari @ 3.20 - Torino won 2-0

Overall that's 8 bets - and just three winners - but importantly we didn't lose money and did OK on a weekend where upsets hit some other punting systems hard.

800 units staked and 835 units returned for a small +35 unit profit.
I'll try to lock in better returns next week.

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Saturday, October 27, 2007

Italy : Weekend Betting Sheet Oct 27/28

Next we head to Italy, and see if we can do an "Italian Job" on the bookmakers prices in Serie A.

click to see the full serie a spreadsheet output

The sheet has quite a few picks this week - and several away picks which is always a tricky thing to bet on in Italy.

LIKELY WINNERS
The sheet is backing three of the the big sides to win on the road in Italy this weekend.

The first two games might not surprise as Juventus to win at Napoli and Inter Milan to win at Palermo will appeal to a lot of punters especially with prices above even money.

But the sheet also likes the look of AS Roma to win at AC Milan as well, although remember that it does not take potential injuries into account so Totti's absence could be vital.

On the home front - probable wins are seleected for Empoli to be Atlanta and Parma to beat Livorno and again the prices are remarkable good.

VALUE BETTING
If you're value betting in Italy that usually means taking draws - and that is exactly what the system selects this weekend with three likely ties :
- Siena v Reggina @ 3.00
- Lazio v Udinese @ 3.00
- Torino v Cagliari @ 3.20

Good luck if you're punting.

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Friday, October 19, 2007

Italy : Weekend Betting Sheet Oct 20/21


Here is the betting spreadsheet for the Itaian Serie A for the weekend of October 20th/21st, 2007.

Likely home wins for :
-----------------------
AS Roma to beat Napoli @ 1.40 at Interwetten
Fiorentina to beat Siena @ 1.40 a Interwetten
AC Milan to beat Empoli @ 1.27 at Betsson
Atlanta to beat Torino @ 2.30 at Bet365
Sampdoria to beat Parma @ 1.85 at EuroBet
Juventus to beat Genoa @ 1.42 at Betsson

And a probable away win for :
-----------------------------
Inter Milan to win at Reggina @ 1.50 at Bet365

The discovered value systems indicate that the wins for Roma, Fiorentina and Juventus are worth taking.

Good luck.

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Friday, September 28, 2007

Italian Football : Betting Spreadsheet Sep 29-30

We've got the Italian football betting spreadsheet online for the weekend now - with the popular Gooners Guide "discovered value" systems all posted on the forum.

Link : The Sheet -> Serie A - 29/30 Sept

The DV-DRAW system has been going great guns so far this season in Italy - correctly identifying 15 draws from 24 attempts and returning a yield of over 90% so far.

Of course it cannot continue to run this week - bookmakers would go broke if that happened - but it's been a great ride - and the system has thrown up 5 more draw picks for this weekend.

IS this how we get the picks for our spreadsheet systems ?We've had several queries about how we do the picks - and although I'm not going to divulge the complete secret - I will let you see this picture of the backroom staff prepraring the sheets ...
:-)

Good luck with your bets this weekend.

RELATED LINKS :
Gooners Guide : Italian football Betting Previews
BookieLabRat : Live Italian Football Betting Odds
Livescore : Live football scores from around Europe

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Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Italian midweek spreadsheet up


There is a round of midweek action in Serie A - and now that we've got the site back up and running we've been able to post our home work.

We've done all the calculations and premutations for the midweek games in Italy and posted the spreadsheet with a few betting notes into the forum

The Sheet -> Italian midweek

Four "likely winners" :
-----------------------------
Inter Milan @ 1.40
Napoli @ 1.86
Juventus @ 1.28
and AC Milan (away) @ 2.33

The discovered value system suggests three bets (two repeats of above).
-----------------------------
DV-Home ::: Inter Milan @ 1.40
DV-Draw ::: Lazio v Cagliari @ 3.30
DV-Away ::: AC Milan @ 2.33

Good luck.

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Saturday, August 25, 2007

Weekend Football Speadsheets Online

Gooners prediction spreadsheets
The latest prediction spreadsheets for England, Germany and Italy are online in the Best of the Bets Forum.

Check out the forum for the threads where the sheets are posted along with some pointers on the best betting options and a couple of betting systems.

Direct links :
- The Sheet -> Italy - 25/26 August
- The Sheet-> England 25/26 August
- The Sheet -> German Bundesliga 24/26 August

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Wednesday, February 28, 2007

The Sheet - Italian Serie A - Feb 28th

Here is the sheet for Wednesday night's games :


Click the image to see the full sheet

There is not too much to say about the four "likely picks" indicated on the sheet with the (+) home wins and (-) away wins as they're all fair solidly backed up by league standings and current form.

LIKELY RESULTS
====================

Inter Milan (77%) to beat Udinese @ 1.33
Lazio (66%) to beat Catania @ 1.53
Empoli (64%) to beat Messina @ 1.73
AS Roma (55%) to win at Chievo @ 2.10 (Asian Handicap)

Interestingly - all of these games are best priced at Bet365 and because each bet is considered to be a fair value (100%) or better it's one of those rare cases where a set of doubles or treble bets are worth a shot.

VALUE PICKS :
===================

And here are a few bets that have good enough odds to be considered value - but they are less likely to win on an individual basis.

Cagliari (31%) to win at Torino @ 4.20 (129% value)
The bet here is really betting against Torino who have lost 6 in a row and just sacked their manager.

Cagliari are just 1-5-5 on the road though ... so perhaps taking them at +1/4 ball on the AH (price is 2.03) is a better play.

AC Milan (48%) to win at Palermo @ 2.70 (131% value)
That's right - AC milan have become so poor that they're no longer an automatic "likely" pick and are actually at value at Betsson.

Milan might have squeaked home 1-0 on the weekend - but they're 7-3-0 in their last 10 SErie A games ... so it's a good price against Palermo who are 5th but haven't won in their last three games.

Ascoli (46%) to beat Parma @ 2.88 (133% value)
A real relegation scrap as Ascoli (20th on 14 points) face Parma (19th on 16 points).

Ascoli have picked up a pair of draws in thier last two games - but will be without several players for this game after picking up some suspensions on the weekend.

Parma drew 3-3 at Udinese on the weekend for their first point in four games, and they're 0-5-8 on the road.

sUMMARY
====================

So there's seven bets for you to consider on Wednesday night in Italy - you should not expect them all to win as the sheet can only forecast mathematically - but I'm looking for 5-6 winners from that set

... so it's just a question of spotting and avoiding the upset result - or staking correctly so that you make a profit anyway.

Good luck with your punts.

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Saturday, February 24, 2007

The Sheet - Italian Serie A - Feb 24th/25th



The Italian sheet continues to pick a lot of home winners - although nothing for the two games being played on Saturday.

LIKELY WINNERS
=================
On Sunday we have five likely home winners :

Milan_AC vs Sampdoria
Udinese vs Parma
Livorno vs Ascoli
Fiorentina vs Empoli
Roma_AS vs Reggina

All of them are rated between 92% to 120% of fair value suggesting that they're reasonable bets to consider but we will still have tob check out team news and such like.

VALUE BETS
=================
Betting value on Italian football is much harder to find - as my statistics on the last three seasons show that blind betting (taking level stakes on every match) would have lost -13% on home sides and -18% on away sides.

These numbers reflect the fact that the betting markets on Italian football are far less competitive when compared to the English league ... and you need a bigger margin.

There are two value bets on offer :
Fiorentina to beat Empoli @ 1.60 at Canbet
Chievo to beat Torino @ 2.20 at Eurobet.

I'll ignore the 10.00 (9/1) being offered at Betfred for Catania to beat Inter Milan even though it is far above the rest of the market - as at 13% it's too much of an outsider for me ... (although the draw at 4.50 might be worth a sneaky wager).

Good luck with your punts.

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Saturday, February 17, 2007

The Sheet - Italian Football - Feb 17th/18th


(Click image to see the full sheet)

With the English Premier League taking another break due to the FA Cup - we have to turn our attention to Europe and Italy in particular to find quality league action.

Most likely wins :
==================================
The sheet has come up with four games where the home team is considered to be the most likely result - and here is a list of the sides who are at 55% or better :
- Inter Milan (74%) to beat Cagliari (1.20 @ Interwetten)
- Palermo (57%) to beat Chievo (1.57 @ Bet365)
- Lazio (61%) to beat Torino (1.62 @ BetDirect)
- Livorno (58%) to beat Messina (1.72 @ Ladbrokes)

Value punting :
==================================
However, I'm a big fan of looking for value when taking a punt - and so I'll only have a shot on those home teams where they've got green ink in the value column - meaning that the odds being paid are better than the risk that I'm taking.

I see two home sides that are worth a shot :
- Empoli 27% @ 4.35 to beat AS Roma (117% value)
- Catania 37% @ 4.00 to beat Fiorentina (146% value)

Staking suggestion for value bets (using a Kelly Criteria variant) :
- Catania 100 units.
- Empoli 50 units.

Goood luck with your Italian Bets.

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