The Gooners Guide to Gambling Blog

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

ESP : Barcelona 2-3 Mallorca - Barca blow it again!

Yet another upset at the Camp Nou as Barcelona throw away a 2-0 lead to lose 2-3 at home to Mallorca.

Thierry Henry and Samuel Eto'o scored for a 2 goal lead for the home side before Mallorca hit back with goals from Valero, Webo and (deep into injuury time) a winner from Guiza.

Watch all the goals in the following videos - English commentary this time ...

VIDEO LINK :
Barcelona 2 - 3 Mallorca
17 [1 - 0] T. Henry
56 [2 - 0] S. Eto'o
67 [2 - 1] B. Valero
70 [2 - 2] P. Webo
90 [2 - 3] D. Guiza

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Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Betting in Spain


A spreadsheet test for Wednesday evening as there are 6 games in Spain where the home side is the favoured result (between 40-50%) but not strong enough to be a likely pick - and they are also priced at over 100% value.

Real Madrid to beat Barcelona @ 2.40 = 134%
Valencia to beat Zaragoza @ 2.10 = 107%
Real Murcia to beat Bilbao @ 3.20 = 141%
Mallorca to beat Osasuna @ 2.20 = 108%
Real Betis to beat Valladolid @ 2.30 = 117%
Santander to beat Sevilla @ 2.65 = 130%

All picks are priced above evens so we will need three home wins in order to make a profit. Note that I'm not saying that they all win - I'm relying on numbers through all SIX games here to make a profit.

Average price calculations suggest around a 22% yield return - by getting best prices. If you settle for lessor odds then you lower the yield.

Will the home sides deliver for us on Wednesday night?

RELATED LINKS :
Gooners Betting Spreadsheet output
And get Live Spanish Football Betting Odds

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Saturday, May 03, 2008

Real Madrid can win league title against Osasuna

The champagne was temporarily put on ice at the Bernabeu after Villarreal beat Real Betis last week, but this weekend the destination of the league title is in Real Madrid's hands.

Real Madrid will collect their 31st Spanish championship if Villarreal fail to beat Getafe on Sunday or they win their match at Osasuna.

Real's Dutch midfielder Wesley Sneijder is confident the team will not have to wait any longer to celebrate the title.

"I want to win the league against Osasuna and I'm sure we are going to do it" he said earlier this week on Spanish TV. "Villarreal aren't going to slip up but neither are we and so we will be champions this weekend."

Osasuna, however, have plenty to play for and are likely to prove difficult opponents. They are just two points above the relegation zone and cannot afford to lose any points if they are to avoid the drop.

Goalkeeper Ricardo will be able to play after his red card against Valencia was overturned on appeal, but centre forward Dady is a doubt.

Real are likely to be strengthened by the return of Dutch striker Ruud van Nistelrooy, who should get a run after a six-week absence following ankle surgery, but playmaker Guti is a doubt because of a strained knee ligament.

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Saturday, March 08, 2008

Real Madid line up Mourinho - but dont tell anyone


Real Madrid have strongly denied reports in the Spanish press claiming the club are hoping to appoint former Chelsea coach Jose Mourinho.

Marca and El Mundo Deportivo on Friday claimed that Real were set to move for Mourinho as the reigning Spanish champions had lost faith in coach Bernt Schuster following Madrid's exit from the last 16 of the Champions League at the hands of Roma.

But the club released an official statement denying this and saying that they were perfectly happy with Schuster.

(Gooner says - yeah right!)

On Thursday Mourinho told a press conference in Valencia: "I am free, I don't have pre-contracts or a gentlemen's agreement. I don't want to take someone else's seat, but I would like to coach a top team in Italy or Spain."

(Gooner says - yeah right!)

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Hang onto your hats - it looks like the managerial roundabout rumours are starting early.

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Monday, June 18, 2007

Beckham finishes at Real Madrid with La Liga title.

Real Madrid 3-1 Real Mallorca



I'm not a huge David Beckham fan - but I've been impressed with the way he's handled himself since the last World Cup and I can say that I was pleased to see Real Madrid clinch the La Liga title on the final day.

Beckham didn't actually have much influence on proceedings today, as he was substituted off midway through the second half with Real Madrid still 0-1 down after they fell behind when Fernando Varela broke the offside trap to score on 17 minutes.

His replacement was Arsenal loan player Jose Antonio Reyes who immediately scored with his first touch, to ease the panic that was running through the home side.

Then in the 80th minute Mahamadou Diarra's downward header trickled over the line after a double deflection off goalkeeper Miguel Angel Moya and defender Basinas before Reyes curled in a delightful third goal from the edge of the area with about 5 minutes left.

(As a Gooner I can hope that will raise his standing in Spain and lift his value - as Arsenal look for a buyer for the homesick Spaniard)

But in the end today was not about Reyes, it was about Real Madrid finally claiming some silverware after four long seasons, and sending off Beckham and Brazillian left-back Roberto Carlos in style.

The scenes of celebration at the final whistle spoke volumes for the depth of feeling at the club - for both the achievement - and the quality of the departing players.

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Monday, June 11, 2007

Real Madrid big favourites to win Spanish League Title


Real Madrid are now a best 1/9 at bet365 to win La Liga after Saturday's dramatic penultimate round of matches.

Trailing twice and with title rivals Barcelona winning against Espanyol, Real's title hopes looked to have been ended for yet another season.

But ex-Manchester United striker Ruud van Nistelrooy's goal forced a 2-2 draw and a last-gasp equaliser for Espanyol at the Nou Camp ensured Real Madrid go into the final round of games next Sunday top of the table.

Madrid are level on points with Barca but in front on head-to-heads, so a home win against 12th-placed Real Mallorca will guarantee a title for the first time in four years at Real Madrid.

Barcelona are now considered almost out of the running and are priced at a huge 6/1 (7.00) at Paddy Power. Barcelona are away to bottom club Gimnastic in their final fixture.

Seville's title hopes remain alive but only just after their 0-0 draw goalless draw with Real Mallorca. They go into the final weekend two points off the pace and it's 50/1 that the other two slip up and they sneak through by scoring a home win over Villarreal.

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