Man City into Uefa Cup via "fair play".

Manchester City will play in next season's Uefa Cup after claiming a place via the Premier League's fair play table.

England were awarded an extra place in the tournament after the Premier League came top of Uefa's fair play rankings - which also includes a component for "positive play".

Sven-Goran Eriksson's Manchester City side actually finished sixth in the Premier League fair play table, but all the sides above them had already qualified for Europe.

City will now be placed in the the Uefa Cup first qualifying round stage which starts in July.

Manager Sven Eriksson has been quoted on the clubs website as saying "It's like the dream came true - our dream to play in Europe has been strong all season. It's a confirmation that we are a good team, but also a team that behaves well on the pitch."

"It's a step in the right direction because the target for this club in the future is to play in the Champions League, and the Uefa Cup is a very good school to learn about European football."

City, who finished in ninth place in the league table, qualified for the Uefa Cup on the same basis in 2003.

The fair play system awards points based on criteria including respect for opponents and the referee, positive play as well as the number of yellow and red cards received.

City will not be able to host the first qualifying round tie at Eastlands as the pitch is due to be relaid once a Bon Jovi concert has taken place on 22 June.

Huddersfield's Galpharm Stadium, which usually plays host to rugby league in the summer, has been mentioned as a possible alternative.

The draw for the first qualifying round will be made on 30 June, with City placed in the Northern section.

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Euro2008 Referees and pay levels announced.

UEFA said the 12 referees, who will be matched with assistants from each of their own countries, had been selected based on their good performances in European matches.

Referees will be paid 10,000 euros for every match at which they officiate with their assistants receiving 5,000 euros.

That corresponds to an increase of almost 60 percent compared with Euro 2004 where the officials received the same amount but in Swiss francs.

List of 12 Euro 2008 referees :
Konrad Plautz (Austria)
Frank de Bleeckere (Belgium)
Howard Webb (England)
Herbert Fandel (Germany)
Kyros Vassaras (Greece)
Roberto Rosetti (Italy)
Pieter Vink (Netherlands)
Tom Henning Ovrebo (Norway)
Lubos Michel (Slovakia)
Manuel Enrique Mejuto Gonzalez (Spain)
Peter Frojdfeldt (Sweden)
Massimo Busacca (Switzerland)

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Zenit blast four past Bayern Munich to reach final

Zenit St. Petersburg overcame a defensive crisis to thrash Bayern Munich 4-0 in their UEFA Cup semi-final second leg and reaching their first European final.

Zenit, without the suspended Andrei Arshavin, Radek Sirl and Fernando Ricksen, as well as Nicolas Lombaerts and Kim Dong Jin through injury, had only two available defenders – Ivica Križanac and Aleksandr Anyukov. These were joined at the back by Roman Shirokov, a recent convert to the centre-half position, and 38-year-old Olexandr Gorshkov, a makeshift left-back.

But the Russian champions combined resolute defending with lethal finishing, to leave Bayern wondering what exactly had hit them after a contest in which the territorial advantage was the Germans.

Goals from Pavel Pogrebnyak and Konstantin Zyrianov set Zenit on their way in the first half, before Victor Fayzulin and Pogrebnyak then consigned Bayern to a painful defeat.

Zenit St. Petersburg 4 - 0 Bayern Munich
04 [1 - 0] P. Pogrebnyak
39 [2 - 0] K. Zyrianov
53 [3 - 0] V. Fayzulin
73 [4 - 0] P. Pogrebnyak

BONUS VIDEO LINK
See all four goals from Zenit St Petersburg v Bayern Munich

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Rangers are in the UEFA Cup final after penalty shoot-out victory

Nacho Novo hit the winning penalty as Rangers booked a place in the UEFA Cup final on penalties after a second scoreless draw.

Rangers were being dominated by ACF Fiorentina for much of the preceding 120 minutes and did not have a shot in anger until the 78th minute as the hosts piled forward but were somehow unable to find the breakthrough.

After 180 scoreless minutes over two legs, extra time came and then penalties, and when Barry Ferguson had the first attempt saved it looked like Rangers lack of attacking ambition would haunt them.

Yet Neil Alexander saved from Fabio Liverani and then Christian Vieri hit his penalty high over the crossbar, allowing Novo to seal an unlikely place in the final.

VIDEO LINK BONUS :
See highlights of the game and the penalty shootout.

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Chelsea Favoured After 1-1 Draw at Anfield

Chelsea are now heavy favourites after a last second own goal from John Arne Riise gave Chelsea a 1-1 draw in the first leg of the UEFA Champions League semi-final at Anfield.

Dirk Kuyt put Liverpool ahead by firing under Petr Cech just before half-time but in the fifth and final minute of added time at the end of the match Riise headed into his own net.

That had a drastic effect on the betting, with Chelsea now strongly favoured to reach a first Champions League final - the Blues on offer at 1.48, while Liverpool are out to 2.90.

(both prices available at internet bookmaker Pinnacle Sports)

Both sides had been at 1.95 before the first leg.

RELATED LINK :
Live Champions League Odds at BookieLabrat.com

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Champions League Betting Spreadsheet for Semi-finals

The Betting Spreadsheet is out for the first leg of the UEFA Champions League semi-finals and there are two clear recomendations.

The Tuesday night match between Liverpool and Chelsea at Anfield is tagged as a very likely draw - with the best price of 3.10 (21/10) at Betsson rated at 136% value.

On Wednesday the spreadsheet favours the 2.53 odds (at PinnacleSports) on Barcelona scoring a home victory over Manchester United in the first leg - rating the price at a tasty 170% value.

Good luck with your punts.

RELATED LINKS :
Gooners Numb3rs - UEFA Champions League Spreadsheet
BookieLabrat Odds - Live Betting Odds for UEFA Champions League

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UEFA CL - Liverpool too good but it was close !!

Liverpool scored four goals - two in the last five minutes - to beat Arsenal and move through to the semi-finals of the Champions League.

Liverpool are now a top price of 10/3 (4.33) with both VC Bet and bet365 for the Champions League after beating Arsenal 4-2 on Tuesday night.

On a rollercoaster night at Anfield, Abou Diaby put the Gunners ahead on 13 minutes, before Sami Hyypia equalised with a bullet header on the half hour mark.

Fernando Torres put Liverpool in front for the first time in the tie with 20 minutes to go but Emmanuel Adebayor looked to have won it in the 84th minute for the Gunners following a brilliant length of the field run from Theo Walcott.

Facing elimination on away goals, substitute Ryan Babel won a penalty a minute later which Steven Gerrard hammered into the top corner before the Dutchman sealed the win himself with a breakaway goal in injury time.

Congratulations to Liverpool ...

(he says going off to find another beer to drown his sorrows ...)

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Manchester Utd step towards semi-finals

Manchester United are into 2/1 (3.00) to win the Champions League after they took a huge step towards the semi-finals.

Goals from Cristiano Ronaldo and Wayne Rooney gave United a 2-0 victory over Roma in the Stadio Olimpico to put them firmly in the driving seat going into the second leg of the quarter-final at Old Trafford next week.

Ronaldo made the breakthrough with a brave header in the first half for his 36th of a remarkable season. Rooney then extended their lead when he took advantage of a mix-up between goalkeeper Doni and Christian Panucci.

And it means the Red Devils, are now a best priced 3.00 (at Betfred) while their likely semi-final opponents Barcelona are next best at 4.00 with Ladbrokes and Centrebet.

Barca also claimed an away win in the first leg of their last-eight clash, beating Schalke 1-0 in Gelsenkirchen. Bojan Krkic scored the only goal of the game in the 12th minute, putting Frank Rijkaard's side in a powerful position ahead of the Nou Camp return.

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Bernabeu will host 2010 Champions League Final

Real Madrid's Bernabeu Stadium won its bid to host the 2010 Champions League final - heading off Wembley because of tax reasons, says Uefa.

Wembley was discounted after failing to provide assurances that players competing in the final would not be taxed by the British government. Rival bids from Munich and Berlin were also overlooked.

"Yes, the reason was the taxes," said Uefa president Michel Platini. He added: "The concerns we had over players being taxed were minimised by the English FA but not confirmed by the British government."

This year's final will be held at the Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow, with Rome's Stadio Olimpico hosting the match in 2009.

----

Hamburg was chosen to host the 2010 UEFA Cup final, beating a bid by Arsenal to host it in the Emirates Stadium.

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UEFA CL : AC Milan 0-2 Arsenal (video)

Words fail me ... so ... watch the goals
:-)



(Apologies if you've found this old post ...
YouTube finally found the video and deleted it)

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Money talks - 11 clubs turnover GBP 100m +

Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal have established themselves in the world top five of highest-earning clubs, according to a new report.

They made £580m between them last season and Deloitte, the business consultancy which compiles the Football Money League, believes their revenues will only increase as English clubs as a whole seek to maximise their money-making potential abroad.

A ninth Premier League title combined with a run to the Champions League semi-finals and a £14m-a-year shirt sponsorship deal helped United earn £212.1m in 2007. Chelsea made £190.5m in the same period and Arsenal took £177.6m, mainly from corporate revenue which doubled to £91m in their first season at the Emirates Stadium.

There are six English clubs in the top 20, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United being the others. Financial analysts expect more to follow in 2008 because of this season's £300m Premier League broadcast deal.

The rich list 2008

1 (1) Real Madrid £236.2m
2 (4) Manchester United £212.1m
3 (2) Barcelona £195.3m
4 (6) Chelsea £190.5m
5 (9) Arsenal £177.6m
6 (5) AC Milan £153.0m
7 (8) Bayern Munich £150.3m
8 (10) Liverpool £133.9m
9 (7) Internazionale £131.3m
10 (12) Roma £106.1m

11 (15) Tottenham Hotspur £103.1m
12 (3) Juventus £97.7m
13 (11) Lyon £94.6m
14 (13) Newcastle United £87.1m
15 (16) Hamburg £81.0m
16 (14) Schalke £76.9m
17 (-) Celtic £75.2m
18 (-) Valencia £72.4m
19 (-) Marseille £66.6m
20 (-) Werder Bremen £65.5m

Last year's position in parentheses

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UEFA Cup Outright winner bets.

The UEFA Cup resumes this week for the round of 32 with 24 qualifiers plus the eight Champions League dropouts hoping to win Europe's lessor competition.

According to the bookies, these eight teams can generally be regarded as outside shots a long way behind hot favourites Bayern Munich with strong sides like Atletico Madrid, Tottenham, Everton and Villarreal, who all battled through the group stages of this competition, are seen as the other leading contenders at prices ranging from 8.00 to 15.00

Last year's semi-finalists Werder Bremen are the best priced out of those to have fallen from this season's Champions League at a best of 17.00 at BoyleSports.

In regards to the other UK sides, Bolton have been written off at prices as long as 100/1 while Glasgow Rangers have a quote at 50/1 with Paddy Power while Aberdeen, who face Bayern Munich in the next round, are way out at 500/1.

BEST PRICES :
Bayern Munich 4.35 @ VCBet
Athletico Madrid 10.00 @ Interwetten
Tottenham Hotspur 12.00 @ Interwetten
Everton 14.00 @ Interwetten
Fiorentina 17.00 @ Canbet
Villarreal 17.00 @ VCBet
Werder Bremen 17.00 @ BoyleSports

or get the latest UEFA Cup odds at BookieLabRat.com

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UEFA Champions League Draw

Liverpool and Arsenal have paid the price for finishing second in the their Champions League groups with draws Inter Milan and AC Milan in the first knockout round.

The Gunners will meet the holders AC Milan in February, while Rafa Benitez's Liverpool side go up against the reigning Serie A champions and current league leaders Inter Milan.

Sir Alex Ferguson's Manchester United have a tough match against the dangerous French champions Lyon while Scottish representatives Celtic are facing up to two matches against Spanish giants Barcelona.

Chelsea were drawn against Olympiacos of Greece and the other big tie in the last 16 pits mighty Real Madrid against Francesco Totti and Roma.

Schalke 04 of Germany take on 2004 winners FC Porto and Sevilla face Turkish side Fenerbahce.

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UEFA CL : Betting Sheet review

Time to check out how the UEFA betting spreadsheet went for Matchday #5 of the UEFA Champions League.

Wednesday was pretty successful and this means that the round as a whole was pretty good.

LIKELY WINNERS
---------------------
Success with Inter Milan (1.40), Manchester United (1.58), Chelsea (1.65), Celtic (1.93) and Besiktas (2.75) ... and just one failure with Lazio.

That's 600 units staked for 931 units returned.
A profit of +331 units gives a yield of +55%

VALUE DRAWS
---------------------
Both of Wednesday's draws came in - turning around the double failure on Tuesday and leaving the "value system" well in profit.

That's 400 units staked for 685 units returned.
A profit of +285 units and a tasty +71% yield.

So I think that the sheet helped punters to spot ways to make quid this week - and you'll be able to toast the sheet during a round of free beers down at the pub on Friday night.

Cheers !!

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UEFA CL : Betting Sheet for Nov 28

Yesterday's sheet nailed to two likely winners (just) - but failed with the value draws.

Here is the betting spreadsheet for Wednesday 28th November.

LIKELY WINNERS
---------------------
Celtic to beat Shaktar Donetsk @ 1.93 at PinnacleSports
Lazio to beat Olympiakos @ 1.94 at PinnacleSports
Besiktas to beat Marseille @ 2.75 at Canbet

Chelsea to win in Rosenborg @ 1.65 at Interwetten

VALUE SYSTEM
---------------------
DRAW Valencia v Schalke @ 3.60
DRAW Benfica v AC Milan @ 3.25

Good luck

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UEFA CL : Betting Sheet for Nov 27.

Here is the betting spreadsheet for Tuesday 27th November.

LIKELY WINNERS
---------------------
Manchester United to beat Sporting Lisbon @ 1.58 at Canbet
Inter Milan to beat Fenerbahce @ 1.40 at PinnacleSports

The likely winners are simply based on the MARgin bring greater than 75 points (or 3/4 of a goal). We should ignore the RES rating for Slavia Prague as it's only based on 15 previous games.

VALUE SYSTEM
---------------------
DRAW Seville v Arsenal @ 3.45
DRAW Stuttgart v Rangers @ 3.30

The value system is based on the strength of the AWAY side and also the projected MARgin. In this case both games are very close to even strength.

Good luck with your midweek punts.

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UEFA Champions League : Match Day Five

Matchday Five of the Champions League this week - as the group stage comes down to the business end.

Arsenal and Manchester Utd are already through while Chelsea should be coasting towards the knockout stage.

But Liverpool, Celtic and Rangers face crunch games where failure could cost them millions.

TUESDAY
17:30 CSKA Moscow (2.20) Draw (3.25) PSV (3.60)
19:45 Dynamo Kiev (5.00) Draw (3.40) Roma (1.91)
19:45 Inter Milan (1.45) Draw (4.50) Fenerbahce (9.00)
19:45 Lyon (2.75) Draw (3.25) Barcelona (2.85)
19:45 Man Utd (1.61) Draw (4.00) Sporting Lisbon (7.50)
19:45 Sevilla (2.20) Draw (3.32) Arsenal (3.65)
19:45 Steaua Bucuresti (2.20) Draw (3.03) Slavia Prague (3.62)
19:45 Stuttgart (2.25) Draw (3.30) Rangers (3.45)

WEDNESDAY
19:45 Benfica (3.40) Draw (3.25) AC Milan (2.38)
19:45 Besiktas (2.83) Draw (3.25) Marseille (2.78)
19:45 Celtic (1.95) Draw (3.40) Shakhtar Donetsk (4.30)
19:45 Lazio (1.81) Draw (3.55) Olympiakos (5.10)
19:45 Liverpool (1.50) Draw (4.20) FC Porto (8.70)
19:45 Rosenborg (6.50) Draw (3.76) Chelsea (1.62)
19:45 Valencia (1.67) Draw (3.75) Schalke (5.80)
19:45 Werder Bremen (3.10) Draw (3.41) Real Madrid (2.38)

All KO times GMT

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Henry out for Barca's trip to Lyon

Thierry Henry will sit out Barcelona's Matchday 5 trip to Olympique Lyonnais after he and Oleguer Presas were left out of the travelling squad.

Henry played a major role for Barca on Saturday evening, assisting Bojan Krkic for the second goal in a 3-0 victory against RC Recreativo de Huelva.

Yet he and Oleguer, who replaced Gianluca Zambrotta in the 65th minute at Camp Nou, both missed this morning's training session and will not make the trip to France as Barcelona look to secure progress to the UEFA Champions League first knockout round.

Barcelona boss Frank Rijkaard will be able to call on Ronaldinho, who was rested against Recreativo.

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Euro2008 : Cars to Croatia as well?

Soccer: Russian offers Croatia incentives to beat England

A Russian billionaire has offered incentives to Croatia for beating England in their final Euro 2008 Group E qualifier on Thursday (NZ time), a result that would give Russia a chance to reach the finals.

Spartak Moscow owner Leonid Fedun said he would donate four Mercedes cars to Croatia's best players if their team comes away with a win at Wembley.

Russia had been in the driving seat following last month's shock win over England in Moscow but lost the initiative after a 2-1 defeat by Israel in Tel Aviv on Sunday. They must now beat Andorra and hope England lose to Croatia.

Not many in Russia, however, believe that already-qualified Croatia, who lost 2-0 to Macedonia in Skopje on Sunday after securing their passage to Euro finals, have the ability to beat England at Wembley.

Fedun said he simply wanted to boost Croatia's morale by offering their goalkeeper and the top three field players each a Mercedes. Croatia goalkeeper Stipe Pletikosa plays for Spartak.

"I'm doing this strictly as a fan," Fedun was quoted as saying by the Russian media. If we have even a small chance we must try to use it."

Israeli media reported that English bookmaker Fred Done had promised a Mercedes to the Israel player, who scored a winning goal against Russia.

However, the Israeli FA said Omer Golan, who struck the injury-time winner, would not be able to accept the gift because it was deemed to be "beyond the bounds of sportsmanship".
(link to more on the original offer at BookieLabrat.com)

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Euro2008 : 12 countries through - 4 places left

Another six countries secured their places at UEFA EURO 2008 on Saturday night taking the total to 12 so far.

THE 12 SIDES SO FAR

Italy, Netherlands, Poland and Spain all progressed with victories while Croatia qualfied thanks to Russia's defeat against Israel, despite being beaten by F.Y.R. Macedonia.

France's players did not even have to put on their boots, with Italy's last-gasp win in Scotland enough to send them through also.

This takes to 12 the number of teams now qualified, with co-hosts Austria and Switzerland, holders Greece, Czech Republic, Germany and Romania already assured their places.

OTHER LIKELY QUALIFIERS

Group A
Portugal are one point back and in need of just a single point more after beating Armenia 1-0. However, Finland's 2-1 victory over Azerbaijan keeps them within three points of the Portuguese whom they could overtake by winning the Porto showdown on Wednesday.

There is also hope for Serbia who will take on Poland on Wednesday and Kazakhstan on Saturday 24 November after snow in Belgrade forced the game's postponement on Saturday. Serbia need wins against Poland and Kazakhstan combined with a Portugal defeat against Finland.

Group C
Turkey can qualify if they beat Bosnia-Herzegovina while Norway travel to Malta and need to win and see an upset in Istanbul.

Group E
England's now need only a point at home to Croatia on Wednesday when the Russians face Andorra.

Group F
Sweden lost 3-0 in Madrid but the Scandinavians will still qualify so long as they take a point from their concluding home game against Latvia. If Sweden lose, then third-placed Northern Ireland – 2-1 victors over eliminated Denmark – can pip them to second place on the head-to-head rule by winning in Spain.

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International Football - the betting sheet

So to recap briefly on how to read this spreadsheet ...

KULHAVY RATING SYSTEM
-----------------------
Worka on a home / away basis using a power ranking system to award performance points based on
- actually winning,
- the size of the win,
- the strength of the opponent
- whether it was an upset or not.

PK = Pick where (+) = home and (-) = away
MAR = Margin of win where 1 pt = 1/100th of a goal.

RES SYSTEM
-----------------------------
Is an attempt to show the results of previous matches where we had teams that were simialrly ranked with a similar margin.

PK = Pick where (+) = home and (-) = away
H/D/A = % of games results
OBS = number of previous matches used for %

NOTE :
In club based spreadsheets I'd want around 100 OBS before really being comfortable with the res system to being accurate to +/- 3%.

With internationals you have some RES predictions that have less than 20 OBS I'd say that the number could easily be +/- 10% of the REAL figure so be careful and don't wager your bank on a game with only a few previous items of data.

(Club leagues literally have 10 seasons x 380 games and as many as 300+ OBS)

DISCOVERED VALUE (DV) SYSTEMS
---------------------------
A backtesting sytem that finds games that "could" be considered a value play as the odds outweigh the risk - and there is a reasonable chance of the result occuring.

These are the bets shown in GREEN BACKGROUND along with the price.

There are six home wins (including Scotland !!) and five draws (including Israel) so I suspect UK punters will be hoping that this works again.

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UEFA CL : Betting Sheet for Nov 7 released.

Here's the betting spreadsheet for Wednesday night.



Remember that the European level there is significantly less data to work with - many sides will only play 6 games at this level in a season and then may miss a season by failing to qualify so it's harder to get quality picks.

Take special care to see the number of previous games being used to produce that pick (the OBS field) and if there is less than 50 games then treat the percentages with healthy scepticism.

Remember that typically 100 points of margin means and average win expectancy of 1 goal. Also remember that an average of 1 goal might mean a 2 goal win in one match and a draw in a second match - averages are tricky things when data is small.

Tonights best picks (dual system picked)
----------------------------------------
Barcelona to beat Rangers @ 1.23 at Betsson
Manchester United to beat Dynamo Kiev @ 1.20 at Interwetten
Sevilla to win at Steaua Bucharest @ 1.75 at Interwetten
Arsenal to win at Slavia Prague @ 1.57 at Ladbrokes

Possible picks (res% system only)
-----------------------------------------
AS Roma to win at Sporting Lisbon @ 2.60 at Interwetten

Inter Milan to beat CSKA Moscow @ 1.30 at Bet365
Fenerbahce to beat PSV Eindhoven @ 2.00 at Bet365

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UEFA CL : Betting Sheet for Oct 24 released.

Eight more matches in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday night - and quite a few of the games appear to have some good options.

The sheet has several "likely winner" choices on Wednesday.

Most Likely winners (picked by both systems) :
--------------------------------------------------------
AC Milan to beat Shaktar Donetsk @ 1.40 at Interwetten
Real Madrid to beat Olympiakos @ 1.30 @ Bet365 (latest price)
Benfica to beat Celtic @ 2.00 at Interwetten (latest price)

Other Likely winners (picked by one system ) :
--------------------------------------------------------
Chelsea to beat Schalke at 1.55 @ Eurobet
Valencia to win at Rosenborg at 1.67 at Ladbrokes
Liverpool to win at Benfica @ 1.75 at Interwetten

Expectation is 3 or 4 home winners, and 1 or 2 away winnners on these picks.

There are NO discovered winners tonight although draws in both Rosenborg v Valencia and Besiktas v Liverpool might be worth chasing the the draw prices got a little higher.

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UEFA CL : Betting Sheet for Oct 23 released.

We've run the numbers and can now release the betting spreadsheet output for Tuesday Oct 23rd in the3 UEFA Champions League.


(click the image for a full sized sheet)

A quick rundown through the "likely winner" picks for the eight games on Tuesday night - typically we would expect to go 3-1 with predictions in this range :

Most Likely winners (picked by both systems) :
--------------------------------------------------------
Arsenal to beat Slavia Prague at 1.20 at Bet365
PSV Eindhoven to beat Fenerbahce at 1.83 @ Ladbrokes

Most Likely winners (picked by one system ) :
--------------------------------------------------------
Sevilla to beat Steaua Bucharest at 1.25 at Betfred
Barcelona to win at Rangers at 1.70 @ Interwetten

=====

Also - after getting a few requests on the forum (Robbie, College_Football) we will also cover the "discovered value" system picks as well.

These are picks that are not "likely winners" usually - but by keeping a record of similar bets we've found that profits can usually be made by taking a handful of these good value bets each matchday.

Discovered Value Bets :
--------------------------------------------------------
HOME :
PSV Eindhoven to beat Fenerbahce at 1.83 @ Ladbrokes

DRAW :
Stuttgart v Lyon at 3.40 at Bet365
Rangers v Barcelona at 3.75 at Bet365
CSKA Moscow v Inter Milan @ 3.40 @ Ladbrokes

AWAY :
Lyon to beat Stuttgart @ 2.70 @ Betsson

As you can see by the prices we will need 2 or more of these discovered winners to hit in order to make a profit - and you will probably ned to play the Stuttgart v Lyon match by with betting X2 or laying Stuttgart.

Good luck with your punts.

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Klinsmann for England Job?

The Daily Mirror says Jurgen Klinsmann wants to become the next England manager and is ready to throw his cap into the ring when the axe falls on McClaren.

The German, who lives in California, has turned his back on the idea of taking a club job in England or elsewhere.

He guided Germany to the World Cup semi-finals in 2006.

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Euro2008 : Betting Sheet released

I've been burning the midnight oil this week in order to get the Euro2008 betting sheet out early - and it has been released onto the forum.

But as a special bonus - well also post it here (just click the graphic for a full sized version). IF you've got any questions or comments then get onto the forum thread and we can talk about it.



HOW TO READ THE SHEET
-----------------------------------
Basically there are two styles of betting - "likely winners" and "value betting".

1) LIKELY WINNERS SYSTEM
-----------------------------------
These are indicated by the + (home win) and - (away win) characters in the to PK columns.

The Kulhavy rating show the estimated strength of the two sides, with the MAR being the predicted margin where 100 points = 1 full goal.

The RES portion shows the previous results of similar rated games - where the OBS column show the total number of previous games.

You will find 8 home wins and 3 away wins predicted as "likely winners" this weekend.

A word of warning - while the likely winners can be profitable - if you can correctly select the right picks - it is difficult to make a long term profit if you are taking bets that are underpriced.

I would not recommend taking bets where the value % number is 85% or below - and these are indicated in red ink on the spreadsheet.

2) DISCOVERED VALUE SYSTEM
-----------------------------------
Regular readers will know that this is my preferred system - as the prices are better - but you have to be warned that these are not banker bets.

So in my opinion it is far better to place smaller stakes on EVERY value bet - and wait for probability to do it's thing - rather than risk it all on one or two choices that may not come in.

The discovered value bets are indicated with a "sickly green" background - showing the odds / the potential value / and the bookmaker.

Discovered value suggests 2 home wins, 6 draws and 3 away wins this weekend as being over-priced at the bookmakers.

Good luck with whatever you're betting on.

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UEFA CL : Arsenal 3-0 Sevilla

Arsenal made an impressive start to their group with a 3-0 thumping of Spanish debutants Sevilla at the Emirates Stadium in London.


Sevilla came into the match as winners of the last two UEFA Cup competitions, and after thrashing AEK Athens 6-1 on aggregate in qualifying, but they really struggled to come to grips with the pace and movement of the Gunners.

Sevilla began tentatively, defending in numbers as the hosts dominated possession early on, although both keepers had to be sharp to parry attacking efforts.

Arsenal took the lead in the 27th minute after Cesc Fabregas hit a shot from 25 metres which deflected off Julien Escude and wrong footing Sevilla keeper Andres Palop.

Arsenal pressed forward in search of a second with Kolo Toure and Emmanuel Adebayor having chances but Frederic Kanoute also had a couple of chances for Sevilla who showed glimpses of their good form.

After the break, the north London club continued to play with style and determination and were rewarded with a second goal on 59 minutes, when Fabregas whipped over a right-wing free-kick that was flicked on by Adebayor and thumped in by Van Persie.

Adebayor and Van Persie went close again after fine work from right-back Bacary Sagna while Sevilla committed men forward in the closing stages in search of a way back into the game.

Those gaps were punished in injury time when Aleksandr Hleb found Fabregas for a slide-rule pass that was turned in by Eduardo for an emphatic 3-0 victory.

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UEFA Champions League Spreadsheet

The patented "GoonersGuide Betting Spreadsheet" (TM) for Tuesday night's games in the UEFA Champions League has been released to the betting forum.

It covers all 8 games - and make recommendations on four likely home wins.

I've also covered the new "discovered value" systems as well - which pciks out one of those home wins as good value - and also targets a value draw bet as well.

You can get it all at the forum link below :
The Sheet -> UEFA CL - Round 1

RELATED LINKS :
Champions League Betting Previews
Latest Champions League Betting Odds

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Arsenal through to Group stages - 20/1 to win

Arsenal are 20/1 to win the Champions League with Ladbrokes after they easily progressed to the group stage by easing past Sparta Prague 3-0 on Wednesday night to secure a 5-0 aggregate triumph.

Leading 2-0 from the first leg teenager Theo Walcott brilliantly set up Czech star Tomas Rosicky's early strike while late goals from Cesc Fabregas and Eduardo Da Silva completed the win.

Meanwhile Celtic also advanced to the lucrative group stages - for which the draw is on Thursday - having overcome Spartak Moscow on a penalty shoot-out following a pulsating clash at Parkhead. The Bhoys are now 101.00 with Ladbrokes.

The Hoops took a 2-1 aggregate lead when Scott McDonald stabbed home but just before the break Pavluchenko levelled the matters, ultimately forcing the game into extra-time and then penalties. But Artur Boruc was the hero, saving two spot kicks to send Gordon Strachan's men through.

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On Tuesday night Liverpool thrashed Toulouse 4-0 to progress through their qualifying tie 5-0 on aggregate and they're now available at 13.00 with Bet365 ahead of Thursday's draw to go one better than last year and lift the trophy.

Rangers edged past Crvena Zvezda 1-0 on aggregate following a tense goalless draw at the Marakana Stadium and they can be backed at a general price of 100/1 with most bookies but 126.00 with Bet365

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Of course the leading candidates all automatically qualified for the group stages Manchester United and Chelsea were automatically in the hat for the group stages with Barcelona the favourites.

TOP SIX SIDES :
Barcelona are 6.00 at PaddyPower
Chelsea are 7.50 at Bet365
Manchester United are 7.50 at Bet365
AC Milan are 11.00 at Bet365
Inter Milan are 11.00 at Paddy Power
Real Madrid are 11.00 at Bet365

OF course you can always get the latest live prices for the UEFA Champions League at our partner site at Bookielabrat.com

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UEFA CL : Sparta Prague 0-2 Arsenal

Arsenal moved a step closer to the lucrative group stages of the Champions League with a 2-0 away victory over Sparta Prague tonight.

On the ground where former captain Thierry Henry had become the club's all-time record goalscorer two season ago, the next generation of young Gunners looked to begin writing a new chapter.

And it was a hard-fought victory - courtesy of goals from Cesc Fabregas and Alexander Hleb, in stoppage time - on a humid night, overcoming tough opponents and a partisan crown at the AXA Stadium.

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Midweek football - a chance to atone?

The first few weeks of the new season are always full on and for a couple of sides (Tottenham and ManYoo) the midweek series of domestic league fixtures gives tem an early chance to atone for weekend disappointment.

See our English football previews page for more.

WE also have the hugely important 3rd qualifying round of the champinos League, and there is as much as Euro 20m at stake for Liverpool and Arsenal as they strive to reeach the lucrative Group stages.

See the UEFA Champions League preview page on the main site for tips and picks now.

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2007-08 Champions League Begins ...

It's only been seven weeks since AC Milan were crowned champions of Europe with a 2-1 win against Liverpool in Athens, but the road to the 2008 season's UEFA Champions League final begins on Tuesday.

Of course, in all likelihood NONE of the 28 sides are involved in the the first qualifying round, will even make it to the group stages, but the money in being invovled in this stage means a lot to the little clubs.

(see our Champion League section for the blog post.)

For the first time the champions of Andorra, San Marino and Montenegro will be invoved in the competition and the inflow of money is an important step in raiing the standards of football for the small nations.

Kaunas likely to progress
FK Zeta will represent Montenegro, lining up against FBK Kaunas who are veterans of this stage as they prepare for their seventh first qualifying round fixture in eight seasons. Only twice have Kaunas failed to reach the second stage and though they have never progressed beyond that, Angel Cervenkov's team approach the tie in high spirits after claiming a maiden Lithuanian Super Cup triumph last month.

Sheriff a tough task for Andorran side
Andorran champions FC Ranger's travel to FC Sheriff for the right to meet Besiktas JK in the next round.

Sheriff saw their UEFA Champions League hopes ended by FC Spartak Moskva 12 months ago but pushed the Russian team all the way before missing out on goal difference and have been busy strengthening ahead of this campaign.

Striker Sasa Kajkut and midfielder George Daniel Negrut have both arrived in Tiraspol, raising hopes the Moldovan champions can go further this term.

Top sides await the winners
Red Star Belgrade who were European champions in 1991 will meet either FK Pobeda or FC Levadia Tallinn while Scottish side Glasgow Rangers FC will face the victors of the Zeta tie.

RELATED LINKS :
UEFA Champions League Live Scores
UEFA Champions League Betting Previews

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UEFA Champions League Money Pot

The latest issue of the online publication UEFA Direct makes very interesting reading.

Page 6 outlines exactly how much each club got for participating - and why - and it just shows how important the Champions League is to the budgets of the clubs.

The top payouts went to the sides that progressed furtherest, as you might expect, with AC Milan getting €38.5m and Liverpool €34.6m.

But even group easy-beats like Levski Sofia received €5.5m just for making the group stage - even though they lost all 6 group games.

Another big factor was the size of the TV market - with Arsenal receiving €19.2m compared to FC Porto's €11.5m despite having very similar records and both going out in the second round - due to the lucrative UK TV market.

And what about the UEFA Cup? How does it compare?

Well it really is a second teir competition with winners Sevilla earning just €6.2m for winning the whole thing (barely more than Levski Sofia) while if you were eliminated before the UEFA Cup group stage you made less than €0.5m for your efforts.

As you can see participation in the Champions League is all important for the financial future of football clubs - and it's no wonder that the pursuit of 4th place is considered more important than a Carling Cup or FA Cup in England.

Without the regular flow of money - the big clubs turn into "sleeping giants" ... like Newcastle or Tottenham
;-)

RELATED LINKS :
The UEFA main website
The GoonersGuide.com UEFA club football betting previews.

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UEFA U21 Competition - Nothing worth a punt?

I'm getting a few emails asking why we're not providing previews for the UEFA U21 competition in the opening few rounds ...

I think that the answer is summed up in the first four results, 1-0, 0-0, 0-0 and 0-1.

As I suggested in the background piece before the start of the tourney, these sides change almost completely for every edition aty this level and it really is hard to get a good form line prior to seeing the first few games.

Holland just squeezed past the "weakest looking" side Isreal in the opener, while 5-time winners Italy butchered a number of chances and then lost to Serbia,

England looked incredibly defensive in drawing 0-0 with the Czech Republic (and missed a late penalty) while Belgium and Portgual showed nothing at all.

Inexperienced strikers, hot weather, ultra cautious coaches have all meant a lack of good action early on - but you cannot even have a punt on UNDER 2.5 GOALS because the format means that this second round of group games are turning into "must win" games.

Let's just look on for the moment - and see if we can get a line n the side for use later in the tournament ...

I hope that the Copa America is better later this month or else it's gonig to be a long football-less summer eh?

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UEFA U21 Euro 2007 Betting Analysis

UEFA U21 Euro 2007 - Tournament Starts June 10

The UEFA under 21 Championships kicks off in Holland on Saturday.

This competition has proved a fertile spawning ground for future super-stars, while some of faces on show will already be familiar to bettors.

The future soccer talent of Europe will be show in Holland for the next two weeks as the continent’s eight best under-21 national teams clash. The tournament has existed since 1978 but has undergone regular modification.

For 2007 the competition has been moved to odd years so as not to clash with the major international senior competitions, while for the first time the hosts – Holland – were chosen before qualification began, thereby sidestepping that process.

The Dutch are coincidentally the holders of the trophy, which they lifted in Portugal last year, after beating the Ukraine 3-0 in the final. That was the first time the Jong Oranje had claimed the title, but they have another great chance as hosts.

Holland kick-off two weeks of action against Israel, with PinnacleSports promising to offer top asian handicap odds on every UEFA U21 Euro 2007 game throughout the tournament.

The key issue to keep in mind is that there is little continuity from one competition to the next as players must be under the age of 21 when the qualification process begins. Given that stipulation, few of the winning Dutch side in 2006 will remain, but success in the event is a reflection of the effectiveness of international you acadamies.

Italy have enjoyed the most success in this competition, lifting the trophy on five occasions since their first success in 1992. On that evidence alone the nation that produced the current World Champions will be popular with bettors.

England fielding several high-profile players, warmed up for their opening against the Czech Republic by thrashing Slovakia 5-0, after which coach, Stuart Pearce staged a mock penalty shoot-out. Pearce has first-hand experience of the pain of losing on spot-kicks going back to Italia 90, so hopes the rehearsal will pay dividends. The Czechs were rocked by the withdrawal of their captain, Martin Latka, four days before the off.

Israel take a football team to an major international event for the first time since the 1976 Olympic Games, with several of the squad, including Chelsea's Ben Sahar having already made their debuts in the full senior side. They have a tough Group A opening game against the hosts and holders, while the sections other two sides, Portugal and Belgium, play later in the evening.

The final side making up the eight team event are Serbia, who lifted the event in 1978 when it first appeared in this format. Coach Miroslav Djukic can call on four senior international players who should add invaluable experience.

Check out the UEFA U21 odds at PinnacleSports now

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Milan are early favourites for UEFA Champs Final

AC Milan are 5/6 favourites (1.83) to lift the Champions League trophy when they contest the final against Liverpool in Athens on May 23.

The Italian side thrashed Manchester United 3-0 in the second leg of their semi-final at the San Siro on Wednesday night to progress 5-3 on aggregate.

First-half goals from Kaka and Clarence Seedorf allowed the Rossoneri to turn around the 3-2 first leg deficit, before substitute Alberto Gilardino put the game beyond United's reach with 13 minutes left.

AC Milan book a meeting with Liverpool, in a repeat of the thrilling 2005 final which finished 3-3 after extra time.

The 2007 Final will take place in the Athens Olympic Stadium on 23rd May.

OUTRIGHT WINNER BEST ODDS :
AC Milan 1.83 at Ladbrokes and EuroBet
Liverpool 2.10 at Betfred.

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