Betting in Spain

A spreadsheet test for Wednesday evening as there are 6 games in Spain where the home side is the favoured result (between 40-50%) but not strong enough to be a likely pick - and they are also priced at over 100% value.

Real Madrid to beat Barcelona @ 2.40 = 134%
Valencia to beat Zaragoza @ 2.10 = 107%
Real Murcia to beat Bilbao @ 3.20 = 141%
Mallorca to beat Osasuna @ 2.20 = 108%
Real Betis to beat Valladolid @ 2.30 = 117%
Santander to beat Sevilla @ 2.65 = 130%

All picks are priced above evens so we will need three home wins in order to make a profit. Note that I'm not saying that they all win - I'm relying on numbers through all SIX games here to make a profit.

Average price calculations suggest around a 22% yield return - by getting best prices. If you settle for lessor odds then you lower the yield.

Will the home sides deliver for us on Wednesday night?

RELATED LINKS :
Gooners Betting Spreadsheet output
And get Live Spanish Football Betting Odds

Stumble It!

Football Association look in Accrington v Bury betting pattern

The Football Association have announced they will look into the Accrington V Bury game after it emerged some bookmakers stopped taking bets on the Coca-Cola League Two clash on Friday after a raft of bets on the Shakers to win.

We also had a punter highlight this game early on Friday evening on our forum that we share with BestofTheBets.com and one punter working in the industry was able to confirm that Will Hill had suspended betting.

Subsequently both William Hill and Coral suspended betting markets on the game, while Betfair also reported unusually high amounts being placed on the clash.

Andy Bishop scored both goals for the visitors in Saturday's clash, and Accrington boss John Coleman refuted allegations that some of his players had been out on a stag party the night before the game.

After the loss, he said: "It's rubbish. There were rumours flying around about a stag do but it is not true. "We kicked into the game and gave our very best for 90 minutes."

The FA's director of communications Adrian Bevington revealed they would be speaking to the bookmakers over the allegations. He said: "This was a very unusual betting pattern - if the allegations are true. We were made aware of the situation on Friday.

"We will look very closely at the information Betfair and other bookmakers provide and take any subsequent action with the Football League and the two clubs concerned."

Stumble It!

Fulham battling to avoid the drop

Fulham are battling hard to avoid the drop after their incredible escape act against Manchester City yesterday.

The Cottagers had looked down and out after a superb Stephen Ireland strike from the edge of the box and a goal from Benjani put City 2-0 in front at Eastlands and at that point a Fulham win was backed at a high of 699/1 on Betfair.

But Roy Hodgson's men hit back late on with Diomansy Kamara shooting through the legs of Joe Hart 20 minutes from time and Danny Murphy then fired in a penalty rebound after his spot-kick was saved.

There was still time for a winner and Kamara grabbed it in dramatic fashion just seconds from time after more good work from Murphy to snatch a 3-2 triumph.

And having been written off in the relegation betting, Fulham are now trading at as big as 1.14 for relegation with Paddy Power. The Londoners remain in the bottom three.

So do Birmingham, who squandered a 2-0 lead to draw against Liverpool to draw 2-2. The Blues are odds-on in places for the drop and Brimngham are a top-priced 2.05 with Centrebet.

Bolton and Reading remain on the fringes of the drop zone after also having to settle for draws at Tottenham and Wigan respectively.

Bolton are 2.75 at Centrebet, while Reading are 3.25 at BoyleSports.

Middlesbrough are priced at 34.00 and Wigan Athletic at 67.00 (both at BoyleSports) to complete the picture - but it's unlikely that either of these two will take the drop.

RELATED LINK :
Live English Premier League Betting Odds at BookieLabrat.com

Stumble It!

Manchester United odds on to qualify after scoreless draw

Manchester United are favourites to qualify for the Champions League final with the bookmakers after holding Barcelona to a 0-0 draw in the first leg of their semi-final clash at the Nou Camp on Wednesday night.

Cristiano Ronaldo missed a penalty after only three minutes and then sat back and defended the 0-0 scoreline for 88 minutes - perhaps due to the absence of Nemanja Vidic.

Barcelona dominated possession but caused Edwin van der Sar few real problems in the United goal, will now have to avoid defeat in the return leg in order to progress to the final in Moscow.

Manchester United are a best priced 1.60 to qualify while Barcelona are 2.40 to get to Moscow. Both prices are from Aussie internet bookmaker Centrebet.

-----

Personally I think that United have to be very wary of conceding at Old Trafford, but still should be slight favourites at around 55% likely to win and qualify meaning a price of 1.81 for fair value.

RELATED LINK :
BookieLabrat's LIVE Champions League Betting Odds page.

Stumble It!

Champions League Betting Spreadsheet for Semi-finals

The Betting Spreadsheet is out for the first leg of the UEFA Champions League semi-finals and there are two clear recomendations.

The Tuesday night match between Liverpool and Chelsea at Anfield is tagged as a very likely draw - with the best price of 3.10 (21/10) at Betsson rated at 136% value.

On Wednesday the spreadsheet favours the 2.53 odds (at PinnacleSports) on Barcelona scoring a home victory over Manchester United in the first leg - rating the price at a tasty 170% value.

Good luck with your punts.

RELATED LINKS :
Gooners Numb3rs - UEFA Champions League Spreadsheet
BookieLabrat Odds - Live Betting Odds for UEFA Champions League

Stumble It!

FA Cup : Portsmouth v Cardiff City - early prices

Cardiff reached the final by beating Barnsley 1-0 at Wembley on Sunday afternoon.

Joe Ledley's ninth-minute thunderbolt for Cardiff halted the Tykes' giantkilling run and secured Cardiff their first FA Cup final appearance since 1927 and they'll now meet Portsmouth.

Barnsley, who conquered both Liverpool and Chelsea in previous rounds, created several chances of their own and ran themselves into the ground in front of a record attendance FA Cup semi-final attendance of 82,752, with Kayode Odejayi missing the best chance in the second half.

Pompey have been installed as hot favourites at a top-priced 1.40 (2/5) at Eurobet while Cardiff are 3.65 to win the FA Cup with Centrebet.

Stumble It!

Why no FA Cup betting previews?

Actually - I didn't get many emails this weekend compared to previous rounds ( See earlier post ) and perhaps that was because one of the writers stepped up and had a shot.

But I think that this weekend proved the case as to why betting on FA Cup matches is not really a profitable venture. Of course the underdogs road their luck, but the somewhat haphazard team selection process certainly helped their chances too.

There seems to be a lot of excitement about the FA Cup now, with many people saying that this is the best FA Cup ever - but despite that I will NOT be having a financial interst in ANY of the remaining games.

So good luck to Portsmouth, Barnsley, West Brom and Cardiff City and I'm sure that their fans will be eagerly awaiting the semi-final draw.

Stumble It!

Gooners Numb3rs - ISA Midweek Spreadsheet

There is a midweek round of the Italian Serie A and the spreadsheet numb3rs are out now.

See the spreadsheet output now.

There are 4 home winners and 1 away winner predicted.
All of them at 100% or greater value.

I bet those prices don't last long.

Stumble It!

GBL and ISA Betting Spreadsheet

With the FA Cup on in England this weekend it means that there are only two leagues covered by the "Gooners Numb3rs" (tm) betting spreadsheet.

(League stats are not used to predict cup games - sorry)

Gooners ISA Numb3rs - Italian Serie A
Has 3 likely home winners and one likely away winner. There is also one "value draw" pick - after they returned back to profit last weekend.

Gooners GBL Numb3ers - German Bundesliga
The Bundesliga is proving hard to make a profit on this season - it lost money again last weekend - but the sheet reckons that there are three likely home winners to check out this weekend.

Good luck with your bets.

Stumble It!

Betting Spreadsheet - online for weekend

It's pretty quiet this week so I've taken advantage of the time to get the "Gooners Numb3rs" (tm) betting spreadsheet done.

Gooners EPL Numb3rs - English Premier League
Has 4 likely home wins, and one likely away win (Spurs?!)

It also suggests a "value" draw on Saturday - and some value on taking Chelsea to win at Stamford Bridge against Liverpool on Sunday.

Gooners ISA Numb3rs - Italian Serie A
Has 3 likely home winners and one likely away winner.

There are two more value draw picks - although these are on a 0-4 run - so be a little careful with your stake size,

Gooners GBL Numb3ers - German Bundesliga
The Bundesliga is proving hard to make a profit on this season - but the sheet reckons that there are five likely home winners (at reasonable prices too) and a couple of discover value plays too.

Check it out.

Stumble It!

Punter wins 57K after wife changes his picks

Just a quick one today - as this blog entry at BookieLabRat caught my eye while looking for betting information.

A punter made a clean sweep of the weekend's English Premier League schedule and picked up £57,000 - at Paddy Power but only after his wife made four changes to his picks.

Now that's what I call female intuition - and I might have to run my slip past "the other half" for this weekend's FA Cup games.

RELATED LINKS :
The Bookie Labrat Betting Blog
Paddy Power - Top rated Irish Bookmaker

Stumble It!

Football betting Prediction spreadsheets

The league betting spreadsheets have been processed and the outputs for the weekend of Jan 12th/13th are now up and online.

GOONERS NUMB3RS - EPL spreadsheet picks
A whole host of likely home winners (6 !!) are tipped in England and one away winner too. Can you pick who that might be (before taking a look) ?

GOONERS NUMB3RS - ISA Spreadsheet picks
It's much tighter in Italy - with one home win at a good price and one away win at a poor price.

The Italian DV-Draw system also has one pick too. It's gone 3-2 over the last five picks and is on a +33% yield over the course of this season - so it's well worth checking out.

There seem to be plenty of picks this weekend worth a shot - good luck with your bets - I hope that the statistical view helps you narrow down some good choices.

Stumble It!

A New Spreadsheet Era Begins - The Database !

Looking for the weekend spreadsheet?

Well after receiving 1,001 questions about :

- How it works ?
- And whether I can get it online earlier ?
- And why are the draws rated as they are ?
- And whether I can get it online earlier ?
- And who are the banker winners this weekend?
- And whether I can get it online earlier ?

I dedcided that the best thing that I can do is to actually migrate the output into an online database - so you can see it when I produce the stuff on Friday morning.

Here's the all important link to the new and improved Gooners Betting Spreadsheet and that output should look pretty familiar.

HOW TO USE IT :
The "ML PK" column stands for MOST LIKELY PICK where a + = home win and a "-" = and away win.

The "DV PK" column stands for DISCOVERED VALUE PICK and this looks for potential good value - and is the basis for the successful draw betting system in Serie A.

IF you click on the "more" link underneath the SHEET STATS column then you'll get an additional page of sheet workings and information on each and every game !!

I think it's pretty useful ... and over the next week or two I'll be adding in additional leagues, more information, and notes so you can see why the sheet makes the predictions it does.

I hope it helps you to more beers !!

WARNING :
Remember though - like all computers the sheet output is just a tool.

It knows absolutely nothing about injuries, tiredness, absenses, fixed games, or sacked managers ... so you will still need to add in a bit of human skill to make your final choices.

If you gamble and you lose - then it's your problem - not mine. I expect each punter to take responsibility for their own actions - and to wager sensibly.

Stumble It!

Italy : Weekend Betting Sheet Dec 2nd

Here is the betting spreadsheet for Sunday 2nd December in Italy.

As you can see (if you clicked the sheet above to get a copy in a seperate browser) there are no huge mismatches this weekend - with all of the game rated within a MARgin of 100 (or 1 goal on average).

But there are still a couple of games that are worth a good close look :

LIKELY WINNER
-----------------------
Parma to beat Empoli @ 2.00 at Bet365

Empoli are just 1-2-5 away from home this season and have lost 3 of their last 4 road games heavily losing 0-3 each time. Of course sandwiched in between those results is that stunning 1-0 win in the San Siro against AC Milan - but that's why they call it gambling right?

VALUE SYSTEM DRAWS
-----------------------
The bookmakers seem to be cottoning onto our system this month - as we've picked out three more games worth a shot - but I notice that 3.00 is about the best price that we can get now - that days of 3.20 to 3.50 are long gone.

DRAW - Torino v Genoa @ 3.00
DRAW - Catania v Palermo @ 3.00
DRAW - Cagliari v Livorno @ 3.00

As you can see all three games have a similar rating pattern with the MARgin within about 30 and none of the sides ranked at 1,000 above.

Our research has shown that generally these teams are happy to accept a draw if it's still level with 80 minutes gone - and so draws are occuring more than 1/3 of the time.

Ok. That's the lot this week - good luck.

Stumble It!

EPL : Betting Spreadsheet for Dec 1/2

Here is the betting spreadsheet for the weeknd games - but it's not really much use to punters - on Saturday at least.

There are NO likely winners according to the ratings on Saturday - although the RES portion of the sheet does favour both Arsenal and Chelsea potentially - but it's not the most reliable indicator.

If you look at the percentages and the value calculations then you'll see that most of the home sides sit within our fair value band (of 85% to 115%) suggesting that if you have special news to back a home side then you'll get a fair bet.

Away from home we can see theat West Ham are rated at 325% of fair value when priced at 13.00 - but then the spreadsheet does not know that Chelsea have not lost at home for two seasons - and so I'd take that with a grain of salt.

Perhaps though I might be tempted into a bet on the Sunderland v Derby DRAW at 3.70, given that both teams will be scrapping hard to avoid dfeat in a game billed as a six-pointer by both managers.

We will end the wekend with three likely home winner picks on the Sunday/Monday games but once again you hardly needed the sheet to tell you that eh? :
- Liverpool to beat Bolton,
- Tottenham to beat Birmingham
- and Manchester Utd to beat Fulham

Sorry I can't be more use this weekend.

Stumble It!

UEFA CL : Betting Sheet review

Time to check out how the UEFA betting spreadsheet went for Matchday #5 of the UEFA Champions League.

Wednesday was pretty successful and this means that the round as a whole was pretty good.

LIKELY WINNERS
---------------------
Success with Inter Milan (1.40), Manchester United (1.58), Chelsea (1.65), Celtic (1.93) and Besiktas (2.75) ... and just one failure with Lazio.

That's 600 units staked for 931 units returned.
A profit of +331 units gives a yield of +55%

VALUE DRAWS
---------------------
Both of Wednesday's draws came in - turning around the double failure on Tuesday and leaving the "value system" well in profit.

That's 400 units staked for 685 units returned.
A profit of +285 units and a tasty +71% yield.

So I think that the sheet helped punters to spot ways to make quid this week - and you'll be able to toast the sheet during a round of free beers down at the pub on Friday night.

Cheers !!

Stumble It!

UEFA CL : Betting Sheet for Nov 28

Yesterday's sheet nailed to two likely winners (just) - but failed with the value draws.

Here is the betting spreadsheet for Wednesday 28th November.

LIKELY WINNERS
---------------------
Celtic to beat Shaktar Donetsk @ 1.93 at PinnacleSports
Lazio to beat Olympiakos @ 1.94 at PinnacleSports
Besiktas to beat Marseille @ 2.75 at Canbet

Chelsea to win in Rosenborg @ 1.65 at Interwetten

VALUE SYSTEM
---------------------
DRAW Valencia v Schalke @ 3.60
DRAW Benfica v AC Milan @ 3.25

Good luck

Stumble It!

UEFA CL : Betting Sheet for Nov 27.

Here is the betting spreadsheet for Tuesday 27th November.

LIKELY WINNERS
---------------------
Manchester United to beat Sporting Lisbon @ 1.58 at Canbet
Inter Milan to beat Fenerbahce @ 1.40 at PinnacleSports

The likely winners are simply based on the MARgin bring greater than 75 points (or 3/4 of a goal). We should ignore the RES rating for Slavia Prague as it's only based on 15 previous games.

VALUE SYSTEM
---------------------
DRAW Seville v Arsenal @ 3.45
DRAW Stuttgart v Rangers @ 3.30

The value system is based on the strength of the AWAY side and also the projected MARgin. In this case both games are very close to even strength.

Good luck with your midweek punts.

Stumble It!

Betting Sheet Reviews

It's time to take a look back at the weekend betting spreadsheets and see how we did in England and Italy.

ENGLAND - LIKELY WINNERS
-----------------------------
Hits at home with Arsenal, Everton and Manchester City, and an away win with Chelsea as well - but Manchester United prevented the clean sweep.

Still a 4-1 record produces a profit, as 100 units staked per bet returns 571 units for a +71 unit profit.

And that's not counting the 5.50 price on the DRAW/ARSENAL HT/FT pick or the fact that I actually went for Bolton on +1.25 AH on the main site. (you do check them out right?)

All-in-all a good weekend in England.

ITALY - LIKELY WINNERS
-----------------------------
After warning about the draws in ITaly we only ran into one this weekend in the Serie A, with winners found for Inter Milan, Juventus, AS Roma and AC Milan as Itlian football sorted itself out.

Fiorentina did draw with Reggina though.

Still - another 4-1 record, and again 100 points on each resulted in a 662 point return for +162 points profit.

ITALY - VALUE DRAWS
-----------------------------
Two draws tipped and one of them came in - paying out at 2.95 meaning that the 2x100 point stakes turned into a 295 point return for a +95 unit profit.

SUMMARY
-----------------------------
There was nothing stunning in the spreadsheet picks - but very, very reliable tips - with all three published systems showing a nice bit of wedge at +328 units. I hope that we helped you into a few "free beers" this weekend - being paid out of betting profits.

Catch ya next week.

Stumble It!

Italian Football : Betting sheet Nov 24/25

Welcome back to the blog - and I've also been able to knock out the Italian sheet in plenty of time for the weekend.

One word of caution about Italian football - it seems that this season is the seaon of the draw in Serie A - as after 117 games this season draws lead all results with a 40-46-31 breakdown.

That means that home wins are running at just 34% (a huge variance on the normal 46% in Italy) and so if you're wondering why your normal home banker accumulators are not working then this might be a mjor reason.

HOME WINNERS (be careful though - read above)
----------------------------------
Inter Milan to beat Atalanta @ 1.31 at PinnacleSports
Juventus to beat Palermo @ 1.66 at Globet

AWAY WINNERS
----------------------------------
AS Roma to win at Genoa @ 2.00 at Bet365
AC Milan to win at Cagliari @ 1.65 at VCBet
Fiorentina to win at Reggina @ 2.15 at PinnacleSports

And if you're following the value DRAW system which has produced good results so far then consider :
- Napoli v Catania DRAW @ 3.48 at PinnacleSports
- Empoli v Torino DRAW @ 2.95 (available generally)

Good luck with your Italian bets this weekend.

Stumble It!

England : Weekend Betting Sheet Nov 24/25

I've got plenty to be getting on with today so just a quick post with the weekend sheet and the likely winners.

HOME WINNERS
---------------------
Arsenal to beat Wigan @ 1.17 at Bet365
Everton to beat Sunderland @ 1.62 at PaddyPower
Manchester City to beat Reading at 1.62 at Paddy Power

AWAY WINNERS
---------------------
Manchester United to win at Bolton @ 1.50 at Interwetten
Chelsea to win at Derby @ 1.30 at Interwetten

Good luck if your punting this weekend.

Stumble It!

NFL : Week #11 Betting Sheet

Comments to follow.

Stumble It!

International Football - the betting sheet

So to recap briefly on how to read this spreadsheet ...

KULHAVY RATING SYSTEM
-----------------------
Worka on a home / away basis using a power ranking system to award performance points based on
- actually winning,
- the size of the win,
- the strength of the opponent
- whether it was an upset or not.

PK = Pick where (+) = home and (-) = away
MAR = Margin of win where 1 pt = 1/100th of a goal.

RES SYSTEM
-----------------------------
Is an attempt to show the results of previous matches where we had teams that were simialrly ranked with a similar margin.

PK = Pick where (+) = home and (-) = away
H/D/A = % of games results
OBS = number of previous matches used for %

NOTE :
In club based spreadsheets I'd want around 100 OBS before really being comfortable with the res system to being accurate to +/- 3%.

With internationals you have some RES predictions that have less than 20 OBS I'd say that the number could easily be +/- 10% of the REAL figure so be careful and don't wager your bank on a game with only a few previous items of data.

(Club leagues literally have 10 seasons x 380 games and as many as 300+ OBS)

DISCOVERED VALUE (DV) SYSTEMS
---------------------------
A backtesting sytem that finds games that "could" be considered a value play as the odds outweigh the risk - and there is a reasonable chance of the result occuring.

These are the bets shown in GREEN BACKGROUND along with the price.

There are six home wins (including Scotland !!) and five draws (including Israel) so I suspect UK punters will be hoping that this works again.

Stumble It!

Italy : Weekend Betting Sheet Nov 10/11

And I've also done the Italian betting sheet as well in time for Saturday afternoon's Serie A games.

The Italian sheet seems to be pretty consistant this weekend - with most of the betting systems coming together to provide a strong direction for punters.

Mind you - please just remember that there were SEVEN draws in the 10 games in last weeks Serie A round and it was only our VaLUE betting draw system that saved us from disaster.

The "likely winners" went 0-4 for a 400 unit loss, but the draw system managed a 3-1 performance for a 510 unit profit !! So as you can see - even with the betting sheet and the number crunching done - it's not a simple path to profits.

Ok - with that warning out of the way - onto the picks :

Likely winners are forecast by BOTH the RES and MAR systems for :
----------------------------------------------------
Sampdoria to beat Empoli
Fiorentina to beat Udinese
Juventus to win at Parma
AS Roma to beat Cagliari

While there are single picks for :
----------------------------------------------------
MAR : +83 Inter Milan to beat Lazio
RES : 54% AC Milan to win at Atlanta

The DISCOVERED VALUE draw system has three likely candidates this weekend.
----------------------------------------------------
Palermo v Napoli @ 3.00
Reggina v Genoa @ 2.90
Torino v Catania @ 3.15

Stumble It!

England : Weekend Betting Sheet Nov 10/12

Here's the betting Sheet for England's Premier League for the weekend of Nov 10th through until Nov 12th.

On Saturday the sheet thinks that :
-------------------------------------
Liverpool will beat Fulham
West Ham have a chance of winning at Derby County

Sunday sees home wins picked on double systems for :
--------------------------------------
Chelsea to beat Everton
Tottenham to beat Wigan Athletic
Manchester United to beat Blackburn Rovers

and also single home win picks for :
---------------------------------------
Portsmouth to beat Manchesater City
Bolton Wanderers to beat Middlesbrough

In terms of "value betting" there is just one pick this week as the Sheet thinks that 7.25 is far too high for Reading who have a 31% chance of upsetting Arsenal at the Madjeski Stadium.

Stumble It!

UEFA CL : Betting Sheet for Nov 7 released.

Here's the betting spreadsheet for Wednesday night.



Remember that the European level there is significantly less data to work with - many sides will only play 6 games at this level in a season and then may miss a season by failing to qualify so it's harder to get quality picks.

Take special care to see the number of previous games being used to produce that pick (the OBS field) and if there is less than 50 games then treat the percentages with healthy scepticism.

Remember that typically 100 points of margin means and average win expectancy of 1 goal. Also remember that an average of 1 goal might mean a 2 goal win in one match and a draw in a second match - averages are tricky things when data is small.

Tonights best picks (dual system picked)
----------------------------------------
Barcelona to beat Rangers @ 1.23 at Betsson
Manchester United to beat Dynamo Kiev @ 1.20 at Interwetten
Sevilla to win at Steaua Bucharest @ 1.75 at Interwetten
Arsenal to win at Slavia Prague @ 1.57 at Ladbrokes

Possible picks (res% system only)
-----------------------------------------
AS Roma to win at Sporting Lisbon @ 2.60 at Interwetten

Inter Milan to beat CSKA Moscow @ 1.30 at Bet365
Fenerbahce to beat PSV Eindhoven @ 2.00 at Bet365

Stumble It!

England : Betting Sheet Review

So how did we go in England ?

we said :

Arsenal v Manchester United
-----------------------------
- 1) This game is hard to pick
- 2) A draw is the most likely result
- 3) Overs 2.5 goals is probably the best bet

See my full match preview for my betting view on the game.

As for the other picks they should not surprise you :
Aston Villa to beat Derby County @ 1.44 at Ladbrokes
Everton to beat Birmingham @ 1.73 at Bet365
Chelsea to win at Wigan @ 1.44 at Ladbrokes

And on Monday night :
Man City to beat Sunderland @ 1.62 at Bet365

I make that pretty good advice - and a perfect weekend.
Enjoy your beers - and catch ya next time.

Stumble It!

NFL : Week #9 Betting Sheet

I've been working like a slave (actually I sat down after a very nice lunch) in order to the the NFL sheet ready for week #9.

We had an ordinary week last week - with only Eddie (the underdog backer) really making any profits to talk about.

Week #9 is dominated by the big game between the Colts and the Pats - but it will be a tough game to make a strong pick on - and there are other easier games to look at.

What does it all mean? Let me spell out the picks for the four systems.

MARVIN (MoneyLine Bankers) :: Season 34-10 +5% yield
------------------------------------------------------
According to our rankings we have five likely winners - although I notice that the public really only agree on the first two choices (Pittburgh and San Diego) so we will see.
H - PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ 1.24
A - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ 1.33
A - DENVER BRONCOS @ 2.32 !
H - ATLANTA FALCONS @ 1.57
H - TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ 1.56

Abe (Against the Spread) :: Season 16-11-2 +15% yield
------------------------------------------------------
Abe had his fierst losing week in a month last weekend - going 1-2 from 3 picks. Has he lost his touch? We don't think so. Five more choices this weekend.
A - DENVER BRONCOS ATS +3
A - JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS ATS +3
A - CAROLINA PANTHERS ATS +4
H - NEW YORK JETS ATS +3.5
H - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS ATS +5

Eddie (underdog ML) :: Season 9-20 +2% yield
------------------------------------------------------
Eddie is a tough system to follow - as he'll lose almost 2/3rds of his bets but the high prices on his dogs tends to make it worth the risk.
H - MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ 3.85
A - JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ 2.70
A - CAROLINA PANTHERS @ 2.94
H - NEW YORK JETS @ 2.83
H - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ 3.15

Vincent (Value ML) :: Season 20-27 +20% yield
------------------------------------------------------
Finally to my favourite system - Vincent's value betting - where he thinks the prices outweigh the risks.
A - SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ 2.05
H - BUFFALO BILLS @ 2.05
H - ATLANTA FALCONS @ 1.57

As you can see all four systems are acutally in slight profit so far this season in the NFL - which is a major suprise to me as I expected Marvin's "most likely" system to fail miserably.

Good luck with your Sunday bets.

Stumble It!

Italy : Weekend Betting Sheet Nov 4

After watching the big game between Arsenal and Manchester United, I've sat down and worked out the betting angles for Sunday's action in Italy's Serie A.



Likely Winners
-----------------------
The sheet has recommendations on four matches likely to finish with pickable winners.

Parma to beat Siena @ 1.91 at Bet365
Cagliari to beat Sampdoria @ 2.35 at Bet365
Roma to win at Empoli @ 1.67 at Bet365
Inter Milan to win at Juventus @ 2.80 at Bet365

Discovered Value Betting
--------------------------
In terms of betting on good potential value we also have a handful of draw options to have a look at.

Analysis of the sheet has found a lucrative little "gap" in the bookie odds in Italy's Serie A league where the away team is rated as a slight favourite - specifically between 0 and -30 MARgin.

This method enables us to hit draws at a 38% rate - and is yielding positive returns (between 5% and 25$) in each of the last six seasons.

Catania v Atlanta @ 3.00
Genoa v Palermo @ 3.00
Livorno v Udinese @ 3.05
Juventus v Inter Milan @ 3.10

And also we see some value on the home win in this game too :
Cagliari to beat Sampdoria @ 2.35 at Bet365

Good luck with your Italian football bets on Sunday.

Stumble It!

England : Weekend Betting Sheet Nov 3/5

A big weekend of football on the card - including Arsenal v Manchester United and Blackburn v Liverpool.



Arsenal v Manchester United
------------------------------------------
Obviously both sides are rated highly with the spreadsheet giving Arsenal having a small 24/100th goal advantage with the game being played at the Emirates.

This advantage of 1/4 of a goal is actually pretty close to the norm - and gives a 45%-27%-28% breakdown over all games - but if you apply the secondary criteria of both teams beeing rated over 1050 then you get an interesting picture.

Just 16 games have been found in my English Premier League database for a 4-9-3 series of results suggesting that the draw is hugely over-priced for this game.

United have been the away side 8 times in those 16 games for a 3W-3D-2L record, and at Arsenal they've gone 1-1-1. Arsenal have been the home side in this situation 6 times, for a 2W-3D-1L record.

In those six home Arsenal "clash of the titans" - 20 goals were scored and the Over 2.5 goals bet won four times out of six.

So what does that all tell us?
- 1) This game is hard to pick
- 2) A draw is the most likely result
- 3) Overs 2.5 goals is probably the best bet

See my full match preview for my betting view on the game.

As for the other picks they should not surprise you :
Aston Villa to beat Derby County @ 1.44 at Ladbrokes
Everton to beat Birmingham @ 1.73 at Bet365
Chelsea to win at Wigan @ 1.44 at Ladbrokes

And on Monday night :
Man City to beat Sunderland @ 1.62 at Bet365

Stumble It!

Carling Cup Outright Betting

Chelsea remain favourites to win the Carling Cup after overcoming a mighty scare to beat Leicester 4-3 at Stamford Bridge this week.

Frank Lampard completed a hat-trick with an injury-time winner to put the holders into the quarter-finals and Chelsea are 11/4 favourites (3.75) with Ladbrokes to defend the trophy.

Arsenal's latest batch of young Gunners cruised into the last eight with a 3-0 win at Sheffield United. Last season's runners-up were comfortable victors at Bramall Lane thanks to Eduardo da Silva's brilliant double and a deflected third from Denilson.

Liverpool were made to work harder as they overcame Cardiff 2-1 at Anfield. But a Steven Gerrard winner soon after proved good enough for the Reds.

Spurs are fourth favourites after Juande Ramos' first game in charge ended in a 2-0 home win over Blackpool. Robbie Keane and Pascal Chimbonda got the goals.

Manchester City (1-0 winners at Bolton), Blackburn (2-1 winners at Portsmouth) and Everton (1-0 extra-time winners at Luton) are all 11/1 at bet365 while West Ham are the 14/1 outsiders of the all-Premier League quarter-final line-up.

The draw for the quarterfinals takes place on Saturday.

ODDS :
Chelsea 3.75 @ Ladbrokes
Arsenal 4.50 @ Bet365
Liverpool 5.50 @ BetFred
Tottenham 10.00 @ Ladbrokes
Manchester City 12.00 @ Bet365

Stumble It!

Italy : Wednesday Betting Sheet Oct 31

We've got a full round of fixtures in Italy on Wednesday night and plenty of picks to consider from the sheet.



LIKELY WINNERS
There are as many as SIX likely winners picked - all of them home wins - and all of the home sides rated as a full goal better than their opponents.

Reggina to beat Livorno @ 1.91 at BetFred
Palermo to beat Parma @ 1.65 at VCBet
Juventus to beat Empoli @ 1.35 at PinnacleSports
Inter_Milan to beat Genoa @ 1.33 at PinnacleSports
Atalanta to beat Cagliari @ 1.93 at PinnacleSports
Fiorentina to beat Napoli @ 1.70 at Bet365

All of these odds are rated in black ink on the sheet meaning that they're fair odds.

(all odds updated as at 9:30am GMT)

VALUE BETTING
There are four draws and two home wins that are indicated as being potential "discovered value" bets on Wednesday night.

Udinese to draw with Torino @ 3.25 at VC Bet
Siena to draw with Catania @ 2.95 at Canbet
Sampdoria to draw with Milan_AC @ 3.20 at Bet365
Roma_AS to draw with Lazio @ 3.45 at PinnacleSports

As well as :
Reggina to beat Livorno @ 1.91 at BetFred
Palermo to beat Parma @ 1.65 at VCBet

It will be interesting to see how the two differing systems fare.

Stumble It!

Italy : Betting Sheet Review

A very interesting Sunday in Serie A - with AC Milan slumping to another home defeat - and it's time to check out the results to see how the sheet went.

What did we get right?
Not as much as we would have liked - but we did call the big game correctly :
Roma to win at Milan @ 3.55
Parma to beat Livorno @ 1.80

What went pear-shapped?
Juve actually lost at Napoli (we had them winning)
Inter could not beat Palermo (drawing 0-0)
Empoli lost at home to Atlanta (we thought they'd win)

Value Betting Draw System.
The value betting system finished all square - with one of the three matches finishing all squre to get our money back.
- Siena v Reggina @ 3.00 - ended 0-0 :-)
- Lazio v Udinese @ 3.00 - Udinese won 1-0
- Torino v Cagliari @ 3.20 - Torino won 2-0

Overall that's 8 bets - and just three winners - but importantly we didn't lose money and did OK on a weekend where upsets hit some other punting systems hard.

800 units staked and 835 units returned for a small +35 unit profit.
I'll try to lock in better returns next week.

Stumble It!

England : Betting Sheet Review

So how did we score on the weekend with the English betting spreadsheet? Did we make some beer money?

What did we get right ?
Manchester United @ 1.22
Chelsea @ 1.55
Reading @ 2.85
Sunderland v Fulham Draw @ 3.35

What did we get wrong?
Portsmouth to beat West Ham
Derby to beat Everton

In my defence, Portsmouth missed a last minute penalty - and as for Derby - yeah OK - perhaps I was blinded a bit by the 3.75 odds.

Still - I think that we're on a winner this weekend as that's a total of six bets at 100 units each which returned 897 units.

That is a +297 unit return or a yield of almost +50%.
I'll chalk that up as a winning week. Enjoy !!

Stumble It!

NFL : Week #8 Betting Sheet

MARVIN (Most Likely)
------------------------------------------------------------
H - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
H - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
H - TENNESSEE TITANS
A - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
H - CHICAGO BEARS

VINCENT (Value)
------------------------------------------------------------
A - GREEN BAY PACKERS
A - NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
H - MINNESOTA VIKINGS
H - CAROLINA PANTHERS
H - ST. LOUIS RAMS

EDDIE (Extreme Underdogs)
------------------------------------------------------------
A - WASHINGTON REDSKINS
A - JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

ABE (ATS)
------------------------------------------------------------
A - WASHINGTON REDSKINS ATS +16
A - JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS ATS +3.5
H - ST. LOUIS RAMS ATS +3

Stumble It!

Italy : Weekend Betting Sheet Oct 27/28

Next we head to Italy, and see if we can do an "Italian Job" on the bookmakers prices in Serie A.



The sheet has quite a few picks this week - and several away picks which is always a tricky thing to bet on in Italy.

LIKELY WINNERS
The sheet is backing three of the the big sides to win on the road in Italy this weekend.

The first two games might not surprise as Juventus to win at Napoli and Inter Milan to win at Palermo will appeal to a lot of punters especially with prices above even money.

But the sheet also likes the look of AS Roma to win at AC Milan as well, although remember that it does not take potential injuries into account so Totti's absence could be vital.

On the home front - probable wins are seleected for Empoli to be Atlanta and Parma to beat Livorno and again the prices are remarkable good.

VALUE BETTING
If you're value betting in Italy that usually means taking draws - and that is exactly what the system selects this weekend with three likely ties :
- Siena v Reggina @ 3.00
- Lazio v Udinese @ 3.00
- Torino v Cagliari @ 3.20

Good luck if you're punting.

Stumble It!

UEFA CL : Betting Sheet for Oct 24 released.

Eight more matches in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday night - and quite a few of the games appear to have some good options.

The sheet has several "likely winner" choices on Wednesday.

Most Likely winners (picked by both systems) :
--------------------------------------------------------
AC Milan to beat Shaktar Donetsk @ 1.40 at Interwetten
Real Madrid to beat Olympiakos @ 1.30 @ Bet365 (latest price)
Benfica to beat Celtic @ 2.00 at Interwetten (latest price)

Other Likely winners (picked by one system ) :
------------------------