Euro 2008 : Spain beat Germany 1-0 in final

Spain have been crowned European champions for the second time as Fernando Torres's first-half goal in Vienna proved enough to defeat Germany in the final of UEFA EURO 2008.

After a strong start from Germany, Spain were the more dangerous side throughout an somewhat uninspiring final at the Ernst-Happel-Stadion and it took just one goal - in the 33rd minute, courtesy of Torres's pace, perseverance and an unerring finish - to end their long wait.

Xavi was the architect, playing a pass in behind the Germany defence towards Torres, who outmuscled a hesitant Philipp Lahm and clipped the ball over the diving Jens Lehmann and just inside the far post.

Spain had more openings in the early stages of the second half, Lehmann getting a touch to Xavi's low shot before Ramos nearly flicked in Silva's drive from the resulting corner.

Yet Germany still posed a threat, and at the hour mark substitute Marcell Jansen and Bastian Schweinsteiger combining for Ballack to shoot centimetres wide.

Klose then deflected a Schweinsteiger effort past the post and in response to Germany's renewed menace Spain coach Luis Aragones promptly introduced Xabi Alonso and Santi Cazorla in place of Fabregas and Silva.

The switches reinvigorated Spain instantly, Lehmann making sharp stops from Ramos and Iniesta while Torsten Frings blocked another Iniesta effort on the line.

Spain continued to carve out chances as the match reached its conclusion, Marcos Senna narrowly failing to apply the finishing touch to an unselfish header from substitute Daniel Guiza – but the celebrations really started for Spain at the final whistle.

---

SPAIN (1) 1
Torres 33

beat

GERMANY (0) 0

Stumble It!

Ballack to miss Euro 2008 final? Don't bet on it!

According to UEFA.com Michael Ballack is a doubt for Sunday's Euro 2008 final against Spain.

"Germany could go into Sunday's final against Spain without their captain and inspiration Michael Ballack as the midfielder is receiving treatment for a calf injury" the website says.

"Ballack sat out the team's final training session in Tenero on Friday and was also a notable absentee tonight as the team were put through their paces at the Ernst-Happel-Stadion on the eve of the UEFA EURO 2008™ showpiece." it continues.

"The muscles has tightened and we'll have to wait and see how things develop," explained coach Joachim Low. "Our medical people are working around the clock to give him a chance to play."

But do you believe it?

I need to go no further than Arsenal coach Arsene Wenger who has said .. "It's an old Bayern Munich trick!" said the Arsenal manager. "I'm convinced if it's a minor injury he will play - they have very good doctors in Germany!"

Stumble It!

Germany favourites for Euro 2008 again.

Germany have regained favouritism for Euro 2008 after booking their place in the semi-finals.

The Germans became the first team through to the last four after beating Portugal 3-2 in an enthralling contest in Basel. And it means Germany head the market again with Paddy Power making Joachim Low's side 5/2 (3.50) favourites.

Holland are the second favourites at 4.50 at BoyleSports, followed by :
Spain 6.00 at BoyleSports
Italy 6.50 at BoyleSports
Croatia 8.00 at VC Bet
Russia 17.00 at VC Bet
Turkey 26.00 at VC Bet

Stumble It!

Euro2008 : Four group winners found

After two rounds of games in Euro 2008, we've already found the four group winners, as UEFA's change to head-to-head tie breakers simplifies the rules.

GROUP A
Portugal top the standings as winners, while the Czech Republic and Turkey will face each other for the runners-up spot in the final match - which could go to a penalty shootout.

GROUP B
Croatia have beaten both Austria and Germany and are confirmed as winners, leaving Germany and Austria fighting for the runners up spot.

GROUP C
The Netherlands have been stunning in thrashing both Italy and France by three clear goals.

Romania, France and Italy are all battling for the second qualification spot on the final day in this quality group.

GROUP D
Spain will finish on top - with two well deserved wins already, while Sweden and Russia will face each other in matchday #3 for second place.

PROJECTED QUARTER FINAL MATCHES
19 June - Basel - PORTUGAL v (Germany)*
20 June - Vienna - CROATIA v (Turkey)*
21 June - Basel - NETHERLANDS v (Sweden)*
22 June - Vienna - SPAIN v (France?)*

* Prediction in brackets ()

Stumble It!

Croatia win Group B with victory over Germany

Croatia claimed a win over pre-tournament favourites Germany to claim top spot in Group B and reach the Euro 2008 quarter-finals.

Darijo Srna broke the deadlock on 24 minutes when he beat Marcell Jansen to Danijel Pranjic's cross and fired home and Croatia were gifted a second goal on 63 minutes when Ivan Rakitic's cross came off Lukas Podolski and rebounded off the post for Ivica Olic to slot home.

Podolski pulled a goal back with a late drive but Bastian Schweinsteiger's red card ended German hopes in injury time.

It was a famous victory for Croatia, and they now win Group B at a payout of 3.64 at the bookmakers (as previewed by Mike.)

Germany will now face co-host Austria in their final group match - and will only need a draw to progress to qualify the quarter-finals as group B runners-up where they will face Portugal.

Stumble It!

Holland beat Italy 3-0 - was the referee right?

Holland beat Italy 3-0 last night - scoring twice in five minutes in the first half - and scoring a killer goal late in the second half.

Many of the newspaper reports today are saying that the Dutch took advantage of a "referee mistake" to score the opening goal from an offside position - but I'm not so sure.

A possible explanation for the referee's decision was that Christian Panucci, who had collided with Buffon seconds earlier and was off the pitch, was adjudged to be playing Van Nistelrooy onside.

By the letter of the law Fifa rule 11 "If a defending player steps behind his own goal line in order to place an opponent in an offside position, the referee shall allow play to continue and caution the defender for deliberately leaving the field of play without the referee's permission when the ball is next out of play."

(see FIFA Laws of the game )

This is to prevent a situation where defenders stationed on the goalposts could possibly just "walk off" behind the goal - and without this rule the attackers could be caught offside.

By going over the back of the goal line - is Panucci considered to be on the goal line while the referee allows play to continue and thus playing everyone onside?

I'm not SURE the rule was applied correctly and Panucci seemed oblivious to what was going on around him - but that's my take on how the situation was ruled.

It will be interesting to see what FIFA / UEFA have to say.

Stumble It!

Win tickets to the Euro 2008 semi-final game in Vienna !

Now you can win 2 tickets to the Euro 2008 semi-final in Vienna, travel expenses, first class hotel for 2 nights, and a sweet VIP-package on top of that!

Do you like football and VIP treatment with lots of free beer?!!

All you have to do to have a chance to win this package is to place an accumulator bet at Betsson!

All customers that place a bet for at least 5 euro (or equivalent in their own currency) on a triple or higher during May will get a ticket in our big lottery that will take place on the 1st of June.

This means that the more coupons you place fulfilling these conditions the more tickets you get in the lottery and the bigger chance you have to go to Vienna in June!

From all these tickets we will draw five lucky winners and the customer with the highest winning odds on any of his (or her) winning tickets with a stake over 5 euro will get two tickets to the 2nd semi-final on Thursday, 26th June 2008 Vienna, Austria.

The four runner-ups will get 100 euro each on their account.

1st Prize:
2 tickets to the 2nd semi-final on Thursday 26th June 2008 in Vienna.
With travel expenses, and luxury hotel.

2nd - 5th Prizes :
100 euro on your account.

You've gotta be in to win - so make sure that you place at least one treble at Betsson Sportsbook this month - and win the best VIP football experience going.

Stumble It!

Euro2008 Referees and pay levels announced.

UEFA said the 12 referees, who will be matched with assistants from each of their own countries, had been selected based on their good performances in European matches.

Referees will be paid 10,000 euros for every match at which they officiate with their assistants receiving 5,000 euros.

That corresponds to an increase of almost 60 percent compared with Euro 2004 where the officials received the same amount but in Swiss francs.

List of 12 Euro 2008 referees :
Konrad Plautz (Austria)
Frank de Bleeckere (Belgium)
Howard Webb (England)
Herbert Fandel (Germany)
Kyros Vassaras (Greece)
Roberto Rosetti (Italy)
Pieter Vink (Netherlands)
Tom Henning Ovrebo (Norway)
Lubos Michel (Slovakia)
Manuel Enrique Mejuto Gonzalez (Spain)
Peter Frojdfeldt (Sweden)
Massimo Busacca (Switzerland)

Stumble It!

Euro2008 : Cars to Croatia as well?

Soccer: Russian offers Croatia incentives to beat England

A Russian billionaire has offered incentives to Croatia for beating England in their final Euro 2008 Group E qualifier on Thursday (NZ time), a result that would give Russia a chance to reach the finals.

Spartak Moscow owner Leonid Fedun said he would donate four Mercedes cars to Croatia's best players if their team comes away with a win at Wembley.

Russia had been in the driving seat following last month's shock win over England in Moscow but lost the initiative after a 2-1 defeat by Israel in Tel Aviv on Sunday. They must now beat Andorra and hope England lose to Croatia.

Not many in Russia, however, believe that already-qualified Croatia, who lost 2-0 to Macedonia in Skopje on Sunday after securing their passage to Euro finals, have the ability to beat England at Wembley.

Fedun said he simply wanted to boost Croatia's morale by offering their goalkeeper and the top three field players each a Mercedes. Croatia goalkeeper Stipe Pletikosa plays for Spartak.

"I'm doing this strictly as a fan," Fedun was quoted as saying by the Russian media. If we have even a small chance we must try to use it."

Israeli media reported that English bookmaker Fred Done had promised a Mercedes to the Israel player, who scored a winning goal against Russia.

However, the Israeli FA said Omer Golan, who struck the injury-time winner, would not be able to accept the gift because it was deemed to be "beyond the bounds of sportsmanship".
(link to more on the original offer at BookieLabrat.com)

Stumble It!

Euro2008 : 12 countries through - 4 places left

Another six countries secured their places at UEFA EURO 2008 on Saturday night taking the total to 12 so far.

THE 12 SIDES SO FAR

Italy, Netherlands, Poland and Spain all progressed with victories while Croatia qualfied thanks to Russia's defeat against Israel, despite being beaten by F.Y.R. Macedonia.

France's players did not even have to put on their boots, with Italy's last-gasp win in Scotland enough to send them through also.

This takes to 12 the number of teams now qualified, with co-hosts Austria and Switzerland, holders Greece, Czech Republic, Germany and Romania already assured their places.

OTHER LIKELY QUALIFIERS

Group A
Portugal are one point back and in need of just a single point more after beating Armenia 1-0. However, Finland's 2-1 victory over Azerbaijan keeps them within three points of the Portuguese whom they could overtake by winning the Porto showdown on Wednesday.

There is also hope for Serbia who will take on Poland on Wednesday and Kazakhstan on Saturday 24 November after snow in Belgrade forced the game's postponement on Saturday. Serbia need wins against Poland and Kazakhstan combined with a Portugal defeat against Finland.

Group C
Turkey can qualify if they beat Bosnia-Herzegovina while Norway travel to Malta and need to win and see an upset in Istanbul.

Group E
England's now need only a point at home to Croatia on Wednesday when the Russians face Andorra.

Group F
Sweden lost 3-0 in Madrid but the Scandinavians will still qualify so long as they take a point from their concluding home game against Latvia. If Sweden lose, then third-placed Northern Ireland – 2-1 victors over eliminated Denmark – can pip them to second place on the head-to-head rule by winning in Spain.

Stumble It!

International Football - the betting sheet

So to recap briefly on how to read this spreadsheet ...

KULHAVY RATING SYSTEM
-----------------------
Worka on a home / away basis using a power ranking system to award performance points based on
- actually winning,
- the size of the win,
- the strength of the opponent
- whether it was an upset or not.

PK = Pick where (+) = home and (-) = away
MAR = Margin of win where 1 pt = 1/100th of a goal.

RES SYSTEM
-----------------------------
Is an attempt to show the results of previous matches where we had teams that were simialrly ranked with a similar margin.

PK = Pick where (+) = home and (-) = away
H/D/A = % of games results
OBS = number of previous matches used for %

NOTE :
In club based spreadsheets I'd want around 100 OBS before really being comfortable with the res system to being accurate to +/- 3%.

With internationals you have some RES predictions that have less than 20 OBS I'd say that the number could easily be +/- 10% of the REAL figure so be careful and don't wager your bank on a game with only a few previous items of data.

(Club leagues literally have 10 seasons x 380 games and as many as 300+ OBS)

DISCOVERED VALUE (DV) SYSTEMS
---------------------------
A backtesting sytem that finds games that "could" be considered a value play as the odds outweigh the risk - and there is a reasonable chance of the result occuring.

These are the bets shown in GREEN BACKGROUND along with the price.

There are six home wins (including Scotland !!) and five draws (including Israel) so I suspect UK punters will be hoping that this works again.

Stumble It!

Klinsmann for England Job?

The Daily Mirror says Jurgen Klinsmann wants to become the next England manager and is ready to throw his cap into the ring when the axe falls on McClaren.

The German, who lives in California, has turned his back on the idea of taking a club job in England or elsewhere.

He guided Germany to the World Cup semi-finals in 2006.

Stumble It!

Euro2008 : Betting Sheet released

I've been burning the midnight oil this week in order to get the Euro2008 betting sheet out early - and it has been released onto the forum.

But as a special bonus - well also post it here (just click the graphic for a full sized version). IF you've got any questions or comments then get onto the forum thread and we can talk about it.



HOW TO READ THE SHEET
-----------------------------------
Basically there are two styles of betting - "likely winners" and "value betting".

1) LIKELY WINNERS SYSTEM
-----------------------------------
These are indicated by the + (home win) and - (away win) characters in the to PK columns.

The Kulhavy rating show the estimated strength of the two sides, with the MAR being the predicted margin where 100 points = 1 full goal.

The RES portion shows the previous results of similar rated games - where the OBS column show the total number of previous games.

You will find 8 home wins and 3 away wins predicted as "likely winners" this weekend.

A word of warning - while the likely winners can be profitable - if you can correctly select the right picks - it is difficult to make a long term profit if you are taking bets that are underpriced.

I would not recommend taking bets where the value % number is 85% or below - and these are indicated in red ink on the spreadsheet.

2) DISCOVERED VALUE SYSTEM
-----------------------------------
Regular readers will know that this is my preferred system - as the prices are better - but you have to be warned that these are not banker bets.

So in my opinion it is far better to place smaller stakes on EVERY value bet - and wait for probability to do it's thing - rather than risk it all on one or two choices that may not come in.

The discovered value bets are indicated with a "sickly green" background - showing the odds / the potential value / and the bookmaker.

Discovered value suggests 2 home wins, 6 draws and 3 away wins this weekend as being over-priced at the bookmakers.

Good luck with whatever you're betting on.

Stumble It!

International Football - Value punters haven?

Just a quick round-up of the last five days of European football betting - which of course has been all about the Euro2008 qualifiers.

Regular readers will know that I release a spreadsheet onto the forum with statistical picks and predictions - and you'll also know that despite this it's very hard to find a big edge.

Last Saturday we analysed the spreadsheet results and found that (as expected) there was little profit to be made in picking "bankers" but what we did find was a very tasty +35% yield if you followed the spreadsheet in betting on "value" teams between 100%-150%.

So when I released the Midweek International Spreadsheet on the forum we talked about the potential value in the thread

However even I was surprised with the results as the "likely winners" did pretty well HOME 9-2 / AWAY 2-1) but barely broke even - while the value bets went 10-9 for a very tasty +45% yield on turnover.

Put that another way - if you put $100 on each of the 19 value bets then you came out with a $866 profit !! That's VALUE BETTING !! And it doesn't include either Scotland or Moldova who we didn't think we value.

My quick thoughts as to why international betting might be slightly easier to find value bets could be as simple as punter patriotism. People will tend to bet with their own country thus pushing some prices way out ... and the bookmakers do not care - they will set prices with GOOD VALUE as long as they get a balanced book.

This means that there could be very good value indeed for the dispassionate value hunting punter - we will look out for it with the release of future international sheets.

(Note : Don't go blindly betting on the same system for domestic club games - it's not as simple to find value - the bookmakers and punters are far sharper in club football )

Stumble It!

David Beckham back in for England v Brazil

BECKHAM BACK FOR ENGLAND

Steve McClaren has denied being panicked into handing David Beckham an England recall, revealing he would have brought the former captain back two months ago had it not been for an untimely knee injury.

McClaren named Beckham in his 26-man squad for next week's friendly against Brazil and the crucial Euro 2008 qualifier in Estonia five days later. Although the decision had been widely expected, it has still come as something of a shock given McClaren's very public axing of the 32-year-old immediately after he succeeded Sven-Goran Eriksson as coach.

McClaren has admitted he made the decision to resurrect Beckham's international career after the friendly defeat to Spain at Old Trafford in February.

"It is not a panic measure, we have thought about it long and hard," said McClaren. "After the Spain game, we looked at the situation and re-assessed where we were because that get-together and game were such a big disappointment.

"We were looking at the possibility of changing things around, so David came into our thinking and reckoning then. We were monitoring his progress and he was under consideration for the Israel game but unfortunately, he got injured." McClaren continued.

The former Manchester United stars place in the starting line-ups against Brazil and Estonia is now virtually certain, even if the coach is unrepentant about the original decision to drop him.

A number of alternatives to replacing Beckham on the right have been looked at, including Steven Gerrard and Aaron Lennon, who is almost certain to withdraw from McClaren's squad with the knee injury he sustained against Albania on Friday, but none have come close to filling the void.

Beckham is joined in the squad by uncapped youngster David Bentley, as well as Reading left-back Nicky Shorey. Wayne Rooney's absence just makes it all the more of a relief for McClaren that Michael Owen is getting back to full fitness again after finally recovering from the cruciate ligament injury he suffered at the World Cup.

And, with Alan Smith available for the first time during his reign and Joe Cole for only the second, McClaren feels there is a freshness about his squad that can trigger an immediate upturn in fortune.

England Squad : Robinson (Tottenham), Carson (Liverpool), Green (West Ham), P Neville (Everton), R Ferdinand (Man Utd), Terry (Chelsea), Bridge (Chelsea), Brown (Man Utd), Carragher (Liverpool), Dawson (Tottenham), King (Tottenham), Shorey (Reading), Beckham (Real Madrid), Gerrard (Liverpool), Jenas (Tottenham), J Cole (Chelsea), Lennon (Tottenham), Bentley (Blackburn), Carrick (Man Utd), Lampard (Chelsea), Downing (Middlesbrough), Dyer (Newcastle), Crouch (Liverpool), Owen (Newcastle), Smith (Man Utd), Defoe (Tottenham).

Stumble It!

Euro 2008 : Germany take a big step to Austria

CZECH REP 1-2 GERMANY

Germany held off a late rally by the Czech Republic to clinch a well-deserved 2-1 win in the battle of the Group D leaders in Prague.

Kevin Kuranyi gave Germany a comfortable 2-0 cushion with two headers in the 42nd and 62nd minutes before a goal from Milan Baros shifted the momentum in the 76th.

Germany scored just before the break after a Frings corner from the left found Kuranyi and he rose highest to acrobatically nod the ball past a puzzled Cech, who reacted too late to prevent the danger.

The Czechs improved after the break, with Jan Koller having an effort blocked and Baros dangerously heading over a right-wing cross from Tomas Ujfalusi. Then Jens Lehmann caught a promising long-distance effort from Arsenal team-mate Tomas Rosicky, and Baros put a header inches past the right post.

But Germany made the Czechs pay in the 62nd minute with a fantastic counter-attack when the rampaging Lahm's pinpoint centre from the left was nodded home by Kuranyi to double the lead.

With 15 minutes left on the clock, Polak hit a 25-yarder which bounced over the line and past Lehmann after it had taken a deadly deflection off Baros' foot.

The Czechs upped the pressure in the last 10 minutes, but Germany prevailed to move three points clear at the top of the pool - but both sides are still well placed to qualify.

Germany 5 games 13 pts, Czech Rep 5-10, Rep. Ireland 6-10, Slovakia 5-9

Stumble It!

Euro 2008 : Holland, England and Serbia stumble

We're starting to get to the business end of qualifying for Euro 2008, and the latest round of group matches were notable for some high profile stumbles by England, Holland and Serbia.

GROUP E
============================
England will get all the headlines after another slip-up in a 0-0 draw in Israel, and that's the 3rd competitive game in a row that England have failed to score in - which makes a mockery of coach Steve McClaren's statements about playing attaking football.

With Croatia beating Macedonia 2-1, and Russia easing past Estonia 2-0 it puts England three points off a qualifiying position - but there are still plenty of games to go.

IF England can win their home games then qualification will be assured - but England's lack of creativity, and Rooney's petulance up front must surely be ringing the alrm bells in the FA.

Croatia 5 games 13 pts, Russia 5-11, England 5-8, Israel 5-8.

GROUP G
============================
But European heavyweights Holland were also held 0-0 by Romania, a result that keeps both Romania and Bulgaria in the hunt for a qualfication spot - especially as both sides have a match in hand over the Dutch.

Holland 5-11, Bulgaria 4-8, Romania 4-8.

GROUP A
============================
The biggest shock of the day though was previously winless Kazakhstan beating Serbia 2-1, while group rival Poland thrashed Azerbaijan 5-0 and Portugal were too strong beating Belgium 4-0.

This 8 team group is a tight one - and there are still 4 sides battling for the two qualification spots.

Poland 6-13, Finland 5-11, Portugal 5-10, Serbia 5-10

GROUP B
============================
In Group B, it was the expected results (just) as Scotland beat Georgia 2-1 thanks to an 88th minute winner, while France eased past Lithuania 1-0 and Ukraine beat the Faroe Islands 2-0.

Italy also are in this group - but has a rest day - and with 3 World Cup quarter-Finalists this was always gonig to be the tightest group - and the surprise leaders Scotland still have a real battle.

Scotland 5-12, France 5-12, Ukraine 4-9, Italy 4-7.

Stumble It!