Manchester Utd losing it off the pitch

Manchester United will probably win probable second successive Premier League title and will take part in a Champions League final, but the club's accounts show a significantly bleaker picture of the club's finances.

Under the ownership of the Florida-based Glazer family, all the borrowings have been loaded onto ManYoo PLC and total loans now stand at a massive £666m by far the highest of any English football club, ever.

The total owed to all creditors, including the banks, was up to £764m and includes £56m that United owe to other clubs in transfer fee instalments on players Sir Alex Ferguson has signed.

When the United headline results were announced back in January, it was said that it produced record income of £210m and operating profits of £75m. But the full accounts show, that even though United made a further £11m profit from buying and selling players, the interest and other accounting provisions pushed United into recording an overall loss of £58m for the year!

The total interest payable by the club on its borrowings was £81m, although only £42m was actually paid. The rest is allowed to roll up until the whole amount has to be repaid in 2016, or, alternatively, until the Glazers can refinance it.

A total of £152m is currently owed to hedge funds, at a staggering 14.25% interest a year - £22m of that from 2007-08 alone. Last year the Glazers tried to refinance but were unable to strike a deal with financial institutions, and a spokesman acknowledged that the credit crunch is making it more difficult now.

Before the Glazer family's 2005 takeover, United prided itself on being the only Premier League club regularly to make a significant profit, to have cash in the bank and, unlike all the others, no debts.

The accounts also reveal that by far the highest proportion of income, £92.5m, is still generated on home match days, and although the club has announced more modest ticket price rises for next season than for the previous two, supporters groups continue to protest that they are paying the debts of a takeover they opposed.

"It is outrageous that supporters are paying the huge interest on these borrowings, which are worrying for the club's future," said Sean Bones of the Manchester United Supporters Trust. "Our money is pouring out to pay the Glazers, while they have not put a penny into the club."

A spokesman for the Glazer family pointed to the club's success on the field, and in generating income off it, as evidence of the family's competent management. "The family continue to run United as a business," he said. "Their model is to encourage success on the pitch by backing Sir Alex Ferguson, and to grow revenues off it. The interest payments are more than covered by the cash generated."

This amount of debt is incredible, the numbers being bandied about are like telephone numbers, and when you consider that Arsenal's stadium cost £360m to purchase all the land and construct then the total debt of £764m at United is obviously not backed by physical assets.

This could all end in tears if the TV money stops coming in ...

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Football Association look in Accrington v Bury betting pattern

The Football Association have announced they will look into the Accrington V Bury game after it emerged some bookmakers stopped taking bets on the Coca-Cola League Two clash on Friday after a raft of bets on the Shakers to win.

We also had a punter highlight this game early on Friday evening on our forum that we share with BestofTheBets.com and one punter working in the industry was able to confirm that Will Hill had suspended betting.

Subsequently both William Hill and Coral suspended betting markets on the game, while Betfair also reported unusually high amounts being placed on the clash.

Andy Bishop scored both goals for the visitors in Saturday's clash, and Accrington boss John Coleman refuted allegations that some of his players had been out on a stag party the night before the game.

After the loss, he said: "It's rubbish. There were rumours flying around about a stag do but it is not true. "We kicked into the game and gave our very best for 90 minutes."

The FA's director of communications Adrian Bevington revealed they would be speaking to the bookmakers over the allegations. He said: "This was a very unusual betting pattern - if the allegations are true. We were made aware of the situation on Friday.

"We will look very closely at the information Betfair and other bookmakers provide and take any subsequent action with the Football League and the two clubs concerned."

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Euro2008 Referees and pay levels announced.

UEFA said the 12 referees, who will be matched with assistants from each of their own countries, had been selected based on their good performances in European matches.

Referees will be paid 10,000 euros for every match at which they officiate with their assistants receiving 5,000 euros.

That corresponds to an increase of almost 60 percent compared with Euro 2004 where the officials received the same amount but in Swiss francs.

List of 12 Euro 2008 referees :
Konrad Plautz (Austria)
Frank de Bleeckere (Belgium)
Howard Webb (England)
Herbert Fandel (Germany)
Kyros Vassaras (Greece)
Roberto Rosetti (Italy)
Pieter Vink (Netherlands)
Tom Henning Ovrebo (Norway)
Lubos Michel (Slovakia)
Manuel Enrique Mejuto Gonzalez (Spain)
Peter Frojdfeldt (Sweden)
Massimo Busacca (Switzerland)

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Italy Silly Season - Fixes or Rumour

We are getting towards the end of the Serie A season - and relegation looms in Italy making the situation rife for plenty of rumours about match-fixing.

There were plenty of strange low value prices today - and plenty of high value in Serie A. Of course we're all aware that Parma won today at a very low price - and everyone has jumped on the fix bandwagon again - was that really the case?

Let's take a look at a selection of games in Italy, and work out what would have happened if you'd backed the "fix" or taken the value.

THE FIXES :
Parma v Genoa (1.48 - 8.00)
This was picked as a close game by the betting spreadsheet, but the fixers were sure that Parma would win and so the 1.48 price on the home side was very, very low - unexplainable in normal terms. Parma were 5-6-5 at home this season, Genoa 5-5-6 away.

Parma won 1-0 and the FIXERS claim a win but was a home win here really a big surprise?!

Torino V Napoli (1.40 - 10.00)
Torino in relegation trouble and Napoli very safely in midtable. Torino favoured slightly by the sheet at home (0.36 of a goal) mainly due to Napoli's woeful 3-4-11 away record.

However the 1.40 on Torino to win is about 56% of fair and surely this is another "fix"? Torino do 2-1 so the FIXERS WIN. But was it proof of corruption or a desperate home team?

Siena v Juventus (8.40 - 1.57)
Juventus in 3rd assumed to have referee backing and will win at Siena. The home side are priced at a staggering 227% of correct value as they are estimated to win this game 27% of the time by the sheet.

The result is that Siena win 1-0. FIXERS LOSE. Value punters win big.

Atlanta v Livorno (3.25 - 2.35)
Atlanta by far the better side, and rated 0.66 of a goal favourite by the sheet are somehow considered outsiders at home to bottom placed Livorno who will win via a fix?.

Atlanta win 3-2. FIXERS LOSE

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There were two other games that did provide upsets of sorts - where they were away teams winning at prices over 4.00+ that never got a rumour of a "fix".

Looking at the form lines, it was very hard to pick the results, and based on the the price no-one seemed to suspect a fix. But the fact that they occured shows how results can vary in football especially at the tail end of a season.

Catania v Reggina (2.10 - 4.40)
A real relegation battle and lowly Reggina priced a low 53% of fair value. But Reggina grab a vital 2-1 away win at a 4.40 price - where were the fix rumours about this game then?

Lazio v Palermo (2.50 - 4.00)
Palermo came into the game 3 points ahead, but without a win in their last six away games. Lazio picked to win based on home form and cruised up 1-0 until the last 10 minutes when Palermo scored twice to win. A fix?

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The upshot is that if you had beleive in the two successful fixes then you did win - and make profits on the home wins. Of course you'd have had to really lump on in order to make good money - and also avoid the Juventus game.

Lets say you believe so wager double stakes (200 euros) on each of the two correct "fixed" games then here is how the money falls :
= 400 euros bet / 580 euros returned and a profit of 180 euros.

A good profit. However if you'd simply backed the four value sides (Napoli, Genoa, Atlanta and Siena) at normal level stakes of 100 euros then :
= 400 euros bet and two wins for 1265 euros returned for a profit of 865 euros !!!

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If every strange result is a fix - why did no-one seem to get on the upset wins for Reggina and Palermo who surprised at prices of over 4.00?

So are there fixes in Serie A that the public can get on? Or aew they simply wildfire internet rumours based on a few strange results?

I'm still not convinced.

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EPL : Derby 2-6 Arsenal (w. Video link)

Arsenal finally kicked to life in the second half of their game against Derby County to simply outscore their relegated opponents.

The Arsenal side had a distinctly young look about it early on - and Derby actually played well for the first 30-40 minutes pressing the Arsenal side into several mistakes.

Adebayor's presence after the break solidified the side, as did the switch of Brazilian midfielders with Gilberto on for Denilson giving the side a better balance.

Still six goals in the end - and of course a couple leaked at the other end - but you cannot grumble about the entertainment level that Arsenal offered ... and it was noticable that even the local Derby supporters stayed to watch right to the final whistle.

Here is all the video coverage - all eight goals !!
Derby 2-6 Arsenal - video.

Arsenal :
Fabianski, Toure (Djourou 78), Gallas, Song Billong, Clichy, Eboue, Fabregas, Denilson (Silva 64), Walcott, Van Persie (Adebayor 46), Bendtner.

Goals :
Bendtner 25, Van Persie 39, Adebayor 59, Walcott 78, Adebayor 81, 90.

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Will Bolton avoid the drop ?

Bolton are out to 3/2 (2.50) to be relegated after they gave themselves a Premier League lifeline with a 1-0 win at Middlesbrough.

A close-range finish from Gavin McCann gave the Trotters a priceless three points which lifted them out of the relegation places and up into 16th place ahead of Reading on goal difference.

It's looking bleak for Fulham though who are now no better than 1/40 (1.03) at BoyleSports to be playing Championship football next season following their 2-0 defeat at home to a weakened Liverpool.

Bolton's win drags Birmingham (2.75 @ Bet365) and Reading (3.00 at Centrebet) right back into the relegation fight.

Birmingham face fierce city rivals Aston Villa on Sunday afternoon.

RELATED LINK :
Live English Premier League Betting Odds

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EPL : Arsenal 2-0 Reading (w. video link)

Arsenal cruised to a 2-0 win over Reading at the Emirates with two goals before halftime.

Emmanuel Adebayor opened the score with a shot from inside of the box after some very good control to beat a defender while Gilberto Silva doubled it 8 minutes later with a deflected long range effort.

Arsenal couldn't increase the score in the second half although they hit the bar twice and dominated the proceedings.

Check out this football blog to see 4 short video highlights.

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EPL : Manchester Utd 2-1 Arsenal

Once again Arsenal are good enougth to take the lead in a high profile game - but once again the makeshift defence is unable to keep a clean sheet.

It's happened against Chelsea, Liverpool and now ManYoo in the last month and let's be honest that's where the title challenges disappeared as the squad has got smaller and smaller.

But instead of recriminations - here's a short video of the Arsenal fan reaction after the game at Old Trafford - as the travelling fans wait to get moved on.



Nice to see - it might not have been a victorious season - but there has been some amazing football played - and it's good to acknowledge it.

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Ronaldinho to leave Barcelona for AC milan

Barcelona's Ronaldinho has reportedly agreed initial terms with Italian giants AC Milan, according to his brother and agent Roberto de Assis.

The Brazilian, 28, is set to miss the rest of the season with injury but is said to be disillusioned with life at the Nou Camp and keen for a move.

De Assis insisted it was not yet a done deal but said: "Basically, Ronaldinho and Milan have come to an agreement. He was impressed with first contact with them, they are a great team."

Milan chief executive Adriano Galliani said: "There is a general agreement with the player. Now a deal has to be reached with Barcelona. Give us time."

The forward has also been linked with a move to Manchester City after De Assis was a guest at the home game against Chelsea. But De Assis claims the meetings at Eastlands were regarding "personal matters" and did not concern his brother.

And he now believes only a fee needs to be agreed with Barca for the two-time world player of the year to make the move to Italy a reality.

Milan coach Carlo Ancelotti admitted on Friday he would like to bring both Ronaldinho and Chelsea's out of favour striker Andriy Shevchenko to the San Siro next season.

Milan are fifth in Serie A and in danger of missing next year's Champions League after a poor season. They were knocked out of this year's Champions League as holders by Arsenal in the first knockout round.

And Ancelotti's men have struggled to score and create goals with Brazilian Ronaldo playing just a handful of games before being ruled out long term with a knee injury.

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2008-9 Pre-season : Real Madrid and Juventus

Arsenal will host European heavyweights Real Madrid, Juventus and Hamburg in the pre-season Emirates Cup in August.

The Emirates Cup - which is being staged for the second year - will be held on August 2nd and 3rd at the Emirates Stadium. The trophy is decided on a league basis - with three points for a win plus an extra point for every goal scored.

"We are delighted at the calibre of the three visiting teams to this year's Emirates Cup" said Arsenal managing director Keith Edelman.

In the first season Arsenal won the pre-season trophy playing against Valencia, Inter Milan and Paris St Germain.

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Arsenal and Ajax look to link-up

Arsene Wenger has said that Arsenal are looking to create a "relationship" with Ajax from next season.

Marco van Basten, who will step down as Holland coach after Euro 2008 to take charge of the Amsterdam club, has visited Wenger this week. The two men discussed the possibility of a mutually beneficial agreement that could see players loaned out from Arsenal to Ajax.

"Van Basten visited us at the training ground this week," Wenger wrote in his programme notes for the Premier League clash with Liverpool.

"We spoke a bit about Euro 2008 and about Ajax, because he is taking over there in the summer. We also spoke about how he wants to see the future of the club and how he wants to work there, and any similarities with our policy at Arsenal, and about whether they can take players on loan for example."

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GOONER ADDS : Obviously this would be a huge boost for both clubs - who these days are well known and admired for their attacking philosophy in football.

For us football oldies who remember the time of "Dutch Total Football" and "Playing The Ajax Way" anything that helps Arsenal to learn and play this way is a great development.

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FA Cup : Portsmouth v Cardiff City - early prices

Cardiff reached the final by beating Barnsley 1-0 at Wembley on Sunday afternoon.

Joe Ledley's ninth-minute thunderbolt for Cardiff halted the Tykes' giantkilling run and secured Cardiff their first FA Cup final appearance since 1927 and they'll now meet Portsmouth.

Barnsley, who conquered both Liverpool and Chelsea in previous rounds, created several chances of their own and ran themselves into the ground in front of a record attendance FA Cup semi-final attendance of 82,752, with Kayode Odejayi missing the best chance in the second half.

Pompey have been installed as hot favourites at a top-priced 1.40 (2/5) at Eurobet while Cardiff are 3.65 to win the FA Cup with Centrebet.

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Are Derby the worst Premier League side ever?

Derby County confirmed their relegation from the Premier League on Saturday in a 2-2 home draw against Fulham ... and now UK bookmaker VC Bet has opened a market on whether the Rams will manage to equal or surpass Sunderland's infamous points tally of 15 points.

Victor Chandler go 2/7 (1.28) about the club failing to get 15 points and 5/2 (3.50) that they equal or surpass it.

"Sunderland hold the record for the worst points tally in Premier League history with a paltry 15, but we reckon that Derby will fare even worse," said VC spokesman Neal Wilkins. "They have been dire at times, and we just can’t see them picking up another win. Paul Jewell can't wait for it all to end."

Derby currently have 11 points with six games remaining, and they face away trips to Everton, West Ham and Blackburn as well as home games against Aston Villa, Arsenal and Reading at Pride Park.

Check it out at VCBet

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EPL : Arsenal win 3-2 at Bolton (video)

Ten-man Arsenal fought back from two goals down for a 3-2 win that lifted them back into second place in the Premier League on Saturday afternoon.

( link to 4 minute match highlights video )

Midfielder Matthew Taylor put Bolton two up in the first half but Arsenal, who had Abou Diaby sent off in the 31st minute for a high tackle on Gretar Steinsson, hit back with three goals in the last half hour.

Captain William Gallas put Arsenal back into the match when he turned in Cesc Fabregas' corner in the 63rd minute. Robin van Persie equalised with a penalty five minutes later after Gary Cahill brought down Alexander Hleb and Fabregas' 90th-minute shot was deflected in by J Lloyd Samuel as Arsenal ended a run of five league games without victory.

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Arsene Wenger had this to say following the Arsenal second half comeback at Bolton...

"I can't remember a better comeback than that - to be 2-0 down, with 10 men and win 3-2 with just half an hour to go is a great credit to the team. I am very proud of our performance because we got a big blow last week (losing to Chelsea) but responded well.

"The first half we didn't play badly but everything went against us. Not only was their first shot on target a goal but we had a player sent off and just before we go to half-time they score a second one which was a big blow.

"The last 30 minutes we had chance after chance and in the end we were a bit lucky on the third goal but we did absolutely everything to win the game and we got a very important victory for us."

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So what's Wrong with Arsenal ?

I was asked a question in the forum today ... "What's wrong with Arsenal?"

What's wrong with Arsenal?
They're top of the table - by three points - and with 11 games to go have a good chance of winning their first title in four years ... will they take up the catch-cry of "winning it for Eduardo?"

What's wrong with Arsenal?
They're playing in a competitive league and they've scored in every Premier League game bar one .... a 0-0 draw with Portsmouth at Fratton Park. Is that really going wrong?

What's wrong with Arsenal?
After losing Thierry Henry in the summer to Barcelona - nearly every external pundit said that Arsenal were finished and would struggle to make the top four - picking Spurs to replace them. Is first place really a bad effort?

What's wrong with Arsenal?
After winning 4 league games in a row they drew 2-2 with Birmingham City despite dominating the game and conceding a last minute (non) penalty. It's a stumble but not fatal.

Ok ... so having made my point ...
Perhaps the only thing that I'd point to - and I point to it each season - is Arsene Wenger's tendancy to work with a smaller squad or players when compared to the other "big 4 clubs" in England and also a tendancy to favour youth over experience.

My gut feeling is that this means that Mr Wenger has to spend less time dealing with players moaning about not getting playing time. Younger players expect less time (compare the attitude of Jens Lehmann to Manual Almunia - or Gilberto to Flamini) and with a smaller squad then they will all get to play some part in a game during a week where there is mid-week and weeekend fixtures.

With Van Persie out for the last 5 months, and now Eduardo out for 6 months, Arsenal are lacking a core of striker - indeed until Adebayor struck amazing form I might have said had no recognized strikers.

A lack of experienced heads is also a key - and if William Gallas is our most responsible player - then we're always going to be likely to be in trouble when stress is applied. (again see Birmingham after the final whistle)

Arsenal has a small, young squad of extremely talented players, but (as I always complain on the blog) it is not a squad that is capable of challenging on four fronts for trophies.

Wenger has realised this this season and the Carling Cup and FA Cup sides were decidedly under-strength - but with 10 players out Arsenal do not now have enough quality options.

Of course, the problem for Wenger is that while that solves the too many games problem, it does not satisfy that fans who honestly would like to see Arsenal win every game that they play.

Remember that prior to Arsenal, Wenger's biggest previous club was Monaco, and with all respect to Monaco - their fans probably didn't care if they didn't bother to much about domestic cups.

Arsene Wenger is a great manager - but he needs to find a way to handle the man management issues (I'm available to lay down the law ) and overcome his aversion to building a big experienced squad.

If Arsenal want to be a true European power on a regular basis - then they need a squad that can handle an injury situation like this - because quite frankly given the nature of the domestic league - this situation is likely to occur EVERY season.

However, I think that Wenger knows that if he brings in experience ahead of youth - then he will undo a lot of the good work he's doing now.

So What's wrong with Arsenal?

Not much that 2-3 experienced players couldn't solve. But will Wenger ever go that way in the transfer market? I don't think so.

This year was not supposed to be Arsenal's year - it was too soon with all the young heads. But now after such a great opening 6 months I do wonder if Arsenal will somehow manage to do it - perhaps with Eduardo helping to concentrate thier efforts?

And as for next season ... just watch out.

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The Premier League must act - ban thugs

Arsenal's Croatian / Brazilian striker Eduardo suffered a potentially career threatening injury on Saturday and it's time this sort of thuggery is sorted out.

Birmingham City's Martin Taylor clattered into Eduardo divingi in studs up and missing the ball by over a foot, and fractured his left fibula and an open dislocation of his ankle joint leaving Eduardo with a foot pointing the wrong way.



The apologists for the "get stuck in brigade" are already saying that it wasn't malicious, and that Taylor "is a good lad" but have no doubt at all that this tackle was a deliberate attempt to stop Eduardo and prevent a chance at goal.

Taylor probably did not mean to break a leg, or end a career, but he also did not mean to pull out of the tackle once the ball had gone.

This tackle wasn't mistimed, it was not accidental, it was a calculated tackle delivered with full force and designed to give the Arsenal player "something to think about" early on in the game, and it something that is still prevalent in the English game.

As it stands Taylor will be banned for three games for his red card, while Eduardo will be out of football for at least 6 months ... if he plays at professional level again.

I've gone into the forum saying that my solution would be that players that are sent off for violent fouls should be suspended for a periord of time that matches the duration that the injured player is out plus three months.

Perhaps that's too harsh, especially bearing in mind that Eduardo may not play again, but I certainly think that there needs to be a review panel that sits after the game to make a decision on an extended ban period for violent fouls.

Whether, it's 5, 10 or even 20 games is something that can be determined rationally in the week following with the benefit of video evidence and witness depositions.

As it stands at the moment a player that gets sent off gets a 3-match ban, be it for talking out of turn to a referee, slapping (Jeremie Aliadiere yesterday), or for violent foul play.

That's unacceptable.

(NEWS UPDATE : Arsenal are predicting that Eduardo da Silva will make a full recovery in about nine months)

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Marco Van Basten to coach Ajax

Dutch legend coach Marco van Basten will become the new Ajax coach next season.

The former AC Milan striker will manage Holland in Euro2008 before stepping down to take over at his former club on 1 July.

Van Basten, three times a winner of the European player of the year award, had been linked with Chelsea and Barcelona - but he has agreed a four-year deal with Ajax after good friend Johan Cruyff was charged with overseeing an overhaul of the ailing Amsterdam club.

Van Basten - a former Ajax youth coach - will be assisted by John van't Schip and Rob Witschge, who are also currently with the national side.

He will take over from Adrie Koster, who succeeded Henk ten Cate on a temporary basis after he joined Chelsea last October.

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ManYoo Still FA Cup Favourites

Manchester United are the 11/8 (2.38) favourites for the FA Cup even after being drawn against Portsmouth at Old Trafford in the only all-Premier League last eight tie.

Chelsea are at 2.75 to win the Cup after Avram Grant's men were paired with Liverpool's conquerors Barnsley in the quarter-finals.

Portsmouth were general 6/1 third favourites before the numbers came out but after being drawn away to one of the two big guns they've been pushed out to a general 14/1. (15.00) along with Middlesbrough as the biggest threats to Chelsea and Manchester United.

Boro have home tie against Cardiff. However, they'll still need to beat Sheffield United in a replay at the Riverside before they can pencil in a quarter-final with the Bluebirds.

West Brom were also cut after being drawn away to Bristol Rovers - the only League One side left in the tournament. The Baggies are as short as 12/1 with Sky Bet although Boylesports have them at 20s.

Cardiff are 51.00 with BetFred, while Canbet offer 151.00 on Barnsley, and Centrebet are 151.00 for Bristol Rovers.

Paddy Power are offering 3/1 (4.00) for any club except Manchester United and Chelsea lifting the trophy and 7/4 (2.75) for a non-Premier League team to reach the final.

Top Odds :
Manchester United @ 2.38 at Bet365
Chelsea @ 2.75 at Centrebet
Middlesbrough @ 15.00 at Centrebet
Portsmouth @ 15.00 at Betfred

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Adebayor said what?!

If you have trouble understanding exactly what Emmanuel Adebayor is saying in post-match interviews - YOU ARE NOT ALONE

Here is a helpful(?) subtitled interview with Adebayor after he scored a late goal against Blackburn. There may be a couple of errors .. who can really tell ..

Carry On Adebayor!
by Rrrseblogging

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GBL and ISA Betting Spreadsheet

With the FA Cup on in England this weekend it means that there are only two leagues covered by the "Gooners Numb3rs" (tm) betting spreadsheet.

(League stats are not used to predict cup games - sorry)

Gooners ISA Numb3rs - Italian Serie A
Has 3 likely home winners and one likely away winner. There is also one "value draw" pick - after they returned back to profit last weekend.

Gooners GBL Numb3ers - German Bundesliga
The Bundesliga is proving hard to make a profit on this season - it lost money again last weekend - but the sheet reckons that there are three likely home winners to check out this weekend.

Good luck with your bets.

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VCBet will offer 10K action on any game

Tired of getting your limits reduced at smaller bookmakers? Perhaps UK bookmaker Victor Chandler is for you.

VCBet says that they'll take on a £10,000 liability from anyone.

VICTOR CHANDLER'S £10,000 GUARANTEE
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From 8am on the day of the game VCBet guarantee to lay any of their Premier League and live matches Win/Draw/Win (90 mins) prices to lose a minimum of £10,000 to each and every customer.

No restrictions - no matter how much you've won previously. Victor Chandler reckons that he can take you on.

So if you spot an edge on an English Premier League game and want to get a thick wedge on - you know that UK bookmaker Victor Chandler is your site.

Signup today and get a good joining bonus.

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Betting Spreadsheet - online for weekend

It's pretty quiet this week so I've taken advantage of the time to get the "Gooners Numb3rs" (tm) betting spreadsheet done.

Gooners EPL Numb3rs - English Premier League
Has 4 likely home wins, and one likely away win (Spurs?!)

It also suggests a "value" draw on Saturday - and some value on taking Chelsea to win at Stamford Bridge against Liverpool on Sunday.

Gooners ISA Numb3rs - Italian Serie A
Has 3 likely home winners and one likely away winner.

There are two more value draw picks - although these are on a 0-4 run - so be a little careful with your stake size,

Gooners GBL Numb3ers - German Bundesliga
The Bundesliga is proving hard to make a profit on this season - but the sheet reckons that there are five likely home winners (at reasonable prices too) and a couple of discover value plays too.

Check it out.

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Adebayor chasing Ronaldo for top scorer honours

Arsenal striker Emmanuel Adebayor has had his odds cut to finish as the Premier League's top scorer this season after closing the gap on Cristiano Ronaldo at the weekend.

Ronaldo remains favourite but has been eased out to 1.83 at Centrebet.

Adebayor scored twice in Arsenal's 3-1 win at Manchester City to take his tally to 18 while Ronaldo stayed on 19 after firing a rare blank against Tottenham. Adebayor is quoted at 2.65 at VCBet now.

Liverpool's Fernando Torres added to his tally with a goal against Sunderland but is a distant third favourite with 12 goals. You can get on Torres at 15.00 at Bet365.

While Chelsea's Nicolas Anelka also scored and has 11 goals now and he's priced at 17.00 at Bet365.

Elsewhere Carlos Tevez (26.00), Robbie Keane (34.00) and Dimitar Berbatov (51.00) are also offered - but it's pretty much a "fan" bet - and you'd probably feel better by donating your money to charity than simply handing it over to the bookmakers.

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Arsenal go top after beating Man City 3-1

Arsenal scored a 3-1 success at Manchester City thanks to two goals from Emmanuel Adebayor and a fine strike from Eduardo da Silva, have been cut to 6/4 (2.50) to win the title.

Manchester United equalised with the last kick of the game in a 1-1 draw with Spurs at White Hart Lane to pick up a point. United were eased to 4/5 (1.80) for the title by Stan James.

Betfair exchange customers backed under 1.5 goals down to 1.04 and Tottenham were matched at just 1.01 when a Carlos Tevez goal from a corner at the death sealed a dramatic point for the Reds.

(and showed just how unsafe it is to chase those "easy money" bets at the exchange)

Chelsea lost ground on Arsenal after being held to a 1-1 draw at Portsmouth where Nicolas Anelka's 55th minute strike was wiped out by new Pompey signing Jermain Defoe. The Blues are out to 11/2.

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Arsenal currently top the table on 60pts, two ahead of United and five clear of Chelsea. All three have played 25 games.

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FA Cup : Arsenal 3-0 Newcastle

As I said last weekend against Fulham- there's nothing like a 3-0 win for Arsenal to make the world feel a better place.

The game went pretty much as predicted with Newcastle far more adventurous under Kevin Keegan than the departed Sam Allardyce but showing too many gaps at the back.

It took 60 minutes for Arsenal to make the breakthrough but a pair of goals from Emmanuel Adebayor helped The Gunners to see off Newcastle. The final shot tally was something like 17-4 - showing the general flow of the game.

The FA Cup picks on Saturday went 4-1 with only the woeful Derby preventing a clean set - while the spreadsheet also produced two likely winners in Serie A.

All-in-all a very satisfactory day at the office, and a profitable one too.
Enjoy the beers.

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FA Cup Fourth Round.

It's another FA cup weekend as the fourth round is played - decimating the Premir league fixture list to just one match.

And as I can't really find a good betting angle in the Aston Villa v Blackburn league match I'll have to take a quick look at the cup program here.

Arsenal v Newcastle
Take Arsenal. Obviously I like the chances of Arsenal here - and at 1.40 the price is worth including in an accumulator.

Coventry v Millwall
Take Coventry. Coventry beat Blackburn at Ewood Park in the last round, and also knocked an understrength Manchester United out of the Carling Cup - and so I like the look of the 1.75 price on Coventry beating Millwall who are struggling in League One.

Derby County v Preston North End
Yes - I'll be on Derby. I know that they're rock bottom of the Premier League - but that should actually help our bet here as County are surely doomed to relegation in the league and they may as well make their cup run a season highlight.

Preston are struggling two leagues down in League One - so the 1.91 on offer for the Rams winning at home seems a pretty good price to me.

Liverpool V Havant and Waterlooville
Obviously Liverpool should win comfortable but the price is useless. Perhaps you can play the -2.75 asian handicap at 1.60 or so?

Portsmouth v Plymouth
Take Portsmouth. Fratton Park isn't easy for Premier League sides to visit and Pompey should havew too much pace and class for Plymouth. Best price is 1.44.

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So there we have it. Five sides that look likely to win on Saturday - at prices that seem ok too.

STAKING PLAN
As far as a staking plan goes - well you could put them into a five-team accumulator - but that never really appeals to me as I like getting a payout each and every weekend rather than once a month.

So I recommend taking these five options along to your favourite online bookies and working out which site are offering the best prices. Then see if you can split the bets into two bets of a double and a treble to give you insurance against ONE upset.

That way if we get four out of five then we should be sitting on a nice little profit on Saturday evening. Good luck.
;-)

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Punter wins 57K after wife changes his picks

Just a quick one today - as this blog entry at BookieLabRat caught my eye while looking for betting information.

A punter made a clean sweep of the weekend's English Premier League schedule and picked up £57,000 - at Paddy Power but only after his wife made four changes to his picks.

Now that's what I call female intuition - and I might have to run my slip past "the other half" for this weekend's FA Cup games.

RELATED LINKS :
The Bookie Labrat Betting Blog
Paddy Power - Top rated Irish Bookmaker

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EPL : Fulham 0-3 Arsenal

There's nothing like a 3-0 Arsenal win to make a Gooner feel better about life.

I particularly like the wins where we've effectively wrapped it up by halftime and even the opposing manager and fans have good things to say about the Arsenal performance.

And so it was at Craven Cottage yesterday when Emmanuel Adebayor scored twice before halftime for a comfortable lead and Tomas Rosicky sealed the win in the second half.

The Guardian even called Arsenal "elegant" while a Fulham fans admits Arsenal "were brilliant" - whach are both things we probably already thought but it's nice to hear other people saying this sort of stuff too.

(it's all a far cry from the Don Howe / George graham days eh?)

Over at the BEEB Sports section the reporting is far more functional but it's worth playing the video interview with Fulham manager Roy Hodgson who talks about Arsenal's skill on the ball and admits it was a comfortable win.

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Nothing much changed in the league standings with ManYoo and Chelsea both scoring away wins (albeit both of them a little less comfortable than expected) while Liverpool and Man City play on Sunday.

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King Kev's debut at St James's Park was a damp squib, a 0-0 draw against a very defensive Bolton in a horrible game - but the Geordie fans recognise that it's gonig to take time and were not booing at the final whistle.

I expect to see more improvement in Newcastle in future months - but as we play them soon in both the FA Cup and the Premier League I'm hoping that it imght take Mr Keegan a wee while to restructure his side.

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Juande Ramos fielded a weakened Spurs side for their game against Sunderland, but still won 2-0 although it was a game that was surprising for the Sunderland effort in the second half.

I read a comment (somewhere) from a Sunderland fan saying that his side had mastered the art of snatching a defeat from a good performance - which I thought was a clever piece of gallows humour.

Spurs now host Arsenal kids in the Carling Cup semi-final second leg - and should rightly consider themselves favourites to progress - as I think that they've got the measure of the young Gooner side.

But still - that favourtism tag can hang heavy around teams - and stranger upsets have happened - so there is plenty to play for on Tuesday night.

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OK let's see what Sunday brings - I'm surprised to see such big prices for both Aston Villa (6.25) and West Ham (4.00) to win on the road - and I reckon that we might see a surprise in either (or both) of these games.

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Kevin Keegan back in charge of Newcastle

Kevin Keegan was sensationally re-appointed as Newcastle boss on Wednesday afternoon - and the bookmakers around Britian have been quick to post a series of special bets on his time in charge.

BOYLESPORTS
Boylesports were first up by offering Keegan at 25/1 to guide the Geordiesto a top six finish this season (they're 11th right now) while both they go 3/1 that 'King Kev' can bring major silverware to Newcastle for the first time since 1969.

EUROBET
Another option for pro-Keegan punters to consider is the 3/1 at Coral that he wins a manager of the month award during the remainder of the current season.

However, given Keegan's past history, plenty of bookies are betting on how long he'll last in the St James' hotseat.

BET365
Bet365 make Keegan only 9/2 to see out this season and spokesman Steve Freeth said: "The Geordies will be jumping for joy at his appointment, but King Kev has a reputation for throwing the towel in and we'd rather not offer a big price on it happening again."

PADDYPOWER
Paddy Power are betting on how many wins Newcastle can manage in their next five Premier League matches - Bolton (h), Arsenal (a), Middlesbrough (h), Aston Villa (a), Man Utd (h).

They go:
7/2 No Wins,
6/4 Exactly 1 Win,
7/4 Exactly 2 Wins,
13/2 Exactly 3 Wins,
25/1 Exactly 4 Wins,
200/1 Exactly 5 Wins.

And Paddy Power also have odds for Keegan's first signing and make Manchester United defender Wes Brown the 6/4 favourite.

They also offer the following players :
9/4 J Defoe, 13/2 S Downing, 8/1 Fred, 12/1 Andy Cole, 12/1 D Berbatov, 16/1 Robbie Keane, 20/1 Deco, 25/1 Ronaldinho, 25/1 D Drogba, 33/1 Ronaldo (Brazil), 50/1 T Henry

BETFRED
Betfred are offering odds on how Michael Own fits into the picture : offering 1/2 that Michael Owen will still be at Newcastle on the first day of next season and 6/4 that he won't.

(click on all those links to go straight to the bookmaker sites to check out their latest odds)

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The sudden appointment certainly came as a shock to the bookies despite a flood of money on Keegan in the hours up to Sky Sports breaking the news late on Wednesday afternoon.

Coral lost a five-figure sum despite the high-profile gambles on Harry Redknapp, Mark Hughes, Gerrard Houllier and Didier Deschamps and spokesman Simon Clare said: "These are notoriously difficult markets for bookmakers to win on, and once again it is the punters who are celebrating Keegan's appointment as enthusiastically as most Newcastle fans."

Paddy Power added: "Fair play to all the punters who backed Keegan for the job last week at tasty odds of 33/1.

"Earlier today he was our 4/1 favourite for the job and we saw a lot of support for him. At least we can take him out of our Next Ireland Manager betting now!"

In fact, the Irish layers were so bemused as to who would be installed that earlier in the day they'd started betting each-way on the next Newcastle boss market - allowing punters to not only try and guess the identity of the new man but also the one after that!

And finally..... Paddy Power go 50/1 that Keegan says the words "I'd love it if we beat them" in his first post-match televised interview as Newcastle manager.

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Le Sulk heads for Les Bleus

Nicolas Anelka's move to Chelsea provides the perfect stage for the gifted but enigmatic French striker to make his football career mean something.

Arsene Wenger unearthed the french starlet as an 18 year-old from Paris St Germain, for the meagre price of £500,000 and got some brilliant performances during an all-too-brief stay at Highbury.

He earned the tag of "Le Sulk", during his stay in North London, as he listened to the deluded ramlbings of his brother agents - and despite his talent there was great relief and merriment in my household when he left Arsenal in August 1999 to join Real Madrid in a £23m deal.

Anelka has never lived up to his undoubted talent, never really looked likely to fulfill his potential as while he was blessed with physical prowess - he's also been cursed with mental shortcomings and a readiness to believe his sycophant followers.

Anelka showed at Arsenal, Real Madrid, Liverpool, Manchester City, Fenerbahce and Bolton that he has (had?) the skills to succeed at the top level, but for all his talents - he has too much baggage to be relied upon by top flight sides.

After a domestic double with Arsenal in 1998 and a Champions League win with Real Madrid in 2000, his career has been a series of ill-fated transfers where the biggest headlines are written the day he signs the contract - and little more thereafter.

Chelsea have bought a flawed talent, although in the short term Anelka might be able to help Chelsea to strive towards their trophy challenges this season.

But it will be beyond Avram Grant (or any manager) to keep Anelka playing to his ability for more than 30-40 matches. Anelka changes clubs like other players change their cars - playing for ten teams in scarcely more than ten years.

Despite the 4 1/2 years on the contract the fact remains that Anelka has never seen a contract through - and it's most likely that Stamford Bridge will be no more than a pit stop as "le Sulk" continues his footballing journey through most of Europe's clubs.

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Sam Allardyce fired by Newcastle United

Sam Allardyce's managerial career at Newcastle United was terminated after just eight months.

The club, currently 11th in the Premier League, said the decision had been reached "by mutual agreement".

Allardyce, who was in charge for 24 games, said: "I'm disappointed but I wish them all the best for the future. It was a shock, I didn't expect it."

It didn't suprise the bookmakers though who had Allardyce as the short priced favourite to get the sack as reported last week.

Sam Allardyce is a red-hot 8/13 (1.61) favourite with VC Bet to be the next Premier League manager to leave his post after his side's third consecutive defeat at home to Manchester City on Wednesday night.

Neal Wilkins from VC Bet commented: "Allardyce was not Mike Ashley's appointment and Newcastle's current dire form must be huge pressure on his position."

Former captain Alan Shearer has ruled himself out of the running and chairman Chris Mort said: "A new manager has not yet been appointed."

First-team coach Nigel Pearson will take charge of the team for Saturday's Premier League meeting with Manchester United.

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Chelsea take first step towards Carling Cup final

Chelsea have the upper hand over Everton after the first leg of their Carling Cup semi-final thanks to a 2-1 success.

The Toffees looked to have forced a draw at Stamford Bridge but a late header from Shaun Wright-Phillips went in off Everton defender Joleon Lescott to give Chelsea the advantage.

The bookmakers now make Chelsea 1.33 to progress to the final and 2.10 (Ladbrokes) to lift the trophy while Everton are 9/4 to turn things around and 8.00 (Bet365) to win the competition outright.

Wednesday night sees Arsenal and Tottenham in action in their last-four first leg with the Gunners 3.75 second favourites (BetFred) for the silverware and Spurs 4.50 (Eurobet).

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FA Cup 3rd Round : Favourites fail to win - almost everywhere!

It was a tough weekend for favourites backers in the FA Cup this weekend with a mix of upset wins and draws meaning that only 7 of 22 teams that started as odds-on favourites actually managed to win.

You'd have been better off picking cup winners at random over the weekend!

Although there were no total shocks in the FA Cup on Sunday we still saw Liverpool, Newcastle, Derby and Fulham were all held by lower league opposition.

Liverpool are now 7.00 (6/1) (BetFred) for the trophy, while Newcastle are 29.00 (28/1) with Bet365 for Wembley glory.

At least my team Arsenal obliged with a good result as they beat Burnley 2-0 and covered the asian handicap bet too. The Gooners are now a 5.00 (4/1) chance at Ladbrokes to lift the cup.

On Saturday Manchester United beat Aston Villa 2-0 to book their place in the last 32. They are now 4.33 (10/3) favourites at BoyleSports to win the FA Cup.

Chelsea were also among the winners - they beat QPR 1-0 - and Avram Grant's side are now joint-second favourites to lift the trophy in May, as they are 4/1 with BoyleSports.

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Why no FA Cup previews Gooner ?

Why no English FA Cup previews Gooner ? - that was the question that I received nearly a hundred times this weekend when I didn't offer any personal cup picks on the main site.

I think that you've now seen the answer as a barrage of "upset" results hit most tipsters picks during the 3rd round.

In Europe, the domestic Cup is treated quite lightly, offering no more than a midweek diversion from the serious bread n butter of league football.

In England, it IS a little bit different, due to the age and history of the FA Cup competition as modern football's longest surviving trophy dating all the way back to 1872.

But the allure of the cup has definately changed in the last twenty years, with prize money, congested fixture lists, and a surfeit of football on TV all playing their part in lessening the status of the FA Cup.

TV EXPOSURE :
Back when I was a lad, the FA Cup was likely to be the ONLY live game that you would see on TV during the season. So reaching the final and worldwide exposure was a big thing.

Now there are literally 20-30 games on the box each week - all the rounds are covered - and frankly the FA Cup final is just one more telvised game and certainly not the major aim for the biggest clubs.

So in the fans eyes - the Cup is no longer the be-all and end-all and this is shown in the dwindling attendances in cup games right around the country.

PRIZE MONEY
Whether it's prize money or just TV appearance money for playing in the English Premier League and/or Champions League - there is little doubt that the FA Cup is a distant 3rd priority for teams with European commitments.

Arsenal's football budget is based around the TV money payments from the Premier League and Champions League, and the couple of million quid on offer for the FA Cup probably is now less than the gate receipts from a single league game at the Emirates Stadium with 60,000 attending.

Winning the silverware is nice - but it's only a consolation prize - "at least we won the cup".

The Cup Final is probably not even the most valuable domestic match either - as I've heard it said that the playoff match for the teams that finished 3rd - 6th in the lower English Championship is considered to be worth GBP 30m (in Premier League TV money).

IF the Football Association REALLY want the FA Cup to regain it's allure - then there are a lot of POUNDS, EUROS or DOLLARS to be found in order to make the Cup a major target.

Club motivation has to be examined when making a punt - and typically the only clubs that are fully motivated are those that are not challenging for a league title AND are not likely to be troubled by relegation either.

FIXTURE LISTS :
OK - I'm less sure about this arguement - because I remember teasm in the 1980's playing 70+ games in a season with a squad of just 14 or 15 players.

However, the game has changed, and perhaps because its faster, or perhaps because players are more pampered, it seems that squad rotation and fielding weaker sides in the cup is de-rigeur.