European Football Sheets online 1/2 Sep

It's been a busy week - but I've finally got all three of my European football prediction spreadsheets up and posted onto the forum.

Direct Links :
The Sheet --> German Bundesliga 1/2 Sep
The Sheet --> Italian Serie A 1/2 Sep
The Sheet --> English Premier League 1/2 Sep

In each of the forum threads I've also tried to outline the "most likely" winners for the weekend - and also the "discovered value' picks that are indicated using a secondary checking method that I am using.

please remember that nothing is certain in football betting - and if you do decide to bet then you acknowledge the personal decisions and risks that you are taking.

(What I'm saying here is don't come whining to me on Monday if these don't happen to win - I've tried as hard as I can to input all the accurate data - but sometimes things just don't go our way!!)

Also remember that this wekend we are trying to raise money for the Greek Wildfire Tragedy and are asking for winning punters to simply donate 5% or 10% of any profits that they make from the spreadsheet picks this weekend to this worthwhile cause.

If there is any Karma then you can be positive in knowing that this decision will bring you good luck - and hopefully great returns.

Good luck everyone - catch you next week - or feel free to post any and all questions on the forum.

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The Picks Sheet - England 28/30 Apr

The English Premier League Picks Sheet

OK, it's been a while since I've posted one to the blog - you can of course always nip onto the betting forum to find them - but after a deluge of email from people I'll try harder to post them in both places.

Here is the sheet :


And just to summarise it for you :

There are four "likely picks" :
Chelsea (75%) to beat Bolton @ 1.30 at Canbet
Arsenal (71%) to beat Fulham @ 1.45 at Interwetten
Sheff_U (70%) to beat Watford @ 1.65 at Betsson
Blackburn (56%) to beat Charlton @ 2.10 at Bet365

You'll need 3 of these 4 to win in order to show a profit with these selections.

There are also EIGHT potential value bets on :
Portsmouth (43%) to beat Liverpool @ 3.30 at VCBet (141% value)
Everton (26%) to beat Man Utd @ 5.25 at Gamebookers (136% value)
West Ham (38%) to beat Wigan @ 3.40 at Bet365 (130% value)
Fulham (27%) to DRAW at Arsenal @ 4.50 Generally (121% value)
Blackburn (56%) to beat Charlton @ 2.10 at Bet365 (118% value)
Sheff_U (70%) to beat Watford @ 165 at Bet365 (115% value)
Middlesbro (42%) to beat Tottenham @ 2.70 at Bet365 (113% value)
Aston Villa (33%) to beat Man_City @ 3.40 at Centrebet (112% value)

These ones are much chancier and so we only need 3 of 8 to win in order to show a profit.

Good luck.

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The Sheet - Italian Serie A - Feb 28th

Here is the sheet for Wednesday night's games :


Click the image to see the full sheet

There is not too much to say about the four "likely picks" indicated on the sheet with the (+) home wins and (-) away wins as they're all fair solidly backed up by league standings and current form.

LIKELY RESULTS
====================
Inter Milan (77%) to beat Udinese @ 1.33
Lazio (66%) to beat Catania @ 1.53
Empoli (64%) to beat Messina @ 1.73
AS Roma (55%) to win at Chievo @ 2.10 (Asian Handicap)

Interestingly - all of these games are best priced at Bet365 and because each bet is considered to be a fair value (100%) or better it's one of those rare cases where a set of doubles or treble bets are worth a shot.

VALUE PICKS :
===================
And here are a few bets that have good enough odds to be considered value - but they are less likely to win on an individual basis.

Cagliari (31%) to win at Torino @ 4.20 (129% value)
The bet here is really betting against Torino who have lost 6 in a row and just sacked their manager.

Cagliari are just 1-5-5 on the road though ... so perhaps taking them at +1/4 ball on the AH (price is 2.03) is a better play.

AC Milan (48%) to win at Palermo @ 2.70 (131% value)
That's right - AC milan have become so poor that they're no longer an automatic "likely" pick and are actually at value at Betsson.

Milan might have squeaked home 1-0 on the weekend - but they're 7-3-0 in their last 10 SErie A games ... so it's a good price against Palermo who are 5th but haven't won in their last three games.

Ascoli (46%) to beat Parma @ 2.88 (133% value)
A real relegation scrap as Ascoli (20th on 14 points) face Parma (19th on 16 points).

Ascoli have picked up a pair of draws in thier last two games - but will be without several players for this game after picking up some suspensions on the weekend.

Parma drew 3-3 at Udinese on the weekend for their first point in four games, and they're 0-5-8 on the road.

sUMMARY
====================
So there's seven bets for you to consider on Wednesday night in Italy - you should not expect them all to win as the sheet can only forecast mathematically - but I'm looking for 5-6 winners from that set

... so it's just a question of spotting and avoiding the upset result - or staking correctly so that you make a profit anyway.

Good luck with your punts.

Stumble It!

The Sheet - Italian Serie A - Feb 24th/25th

The Italian sheet continues to pick a lot of home winners - although nothing for the two games being played on Saturday.

LIKELY WINNERS
=================
On Sunday we have five likely home winners :

Milan_AC vs Sampdoria
Udinese vs Parma
Livorno vs Ascoli
Fiorentina vs Empoli
Roma_AS vs Reggina

All of them are rated between 92% to 120% of fair value suggesting that they're reasonable bets to consider but we will still have tob check out team news and such like.

VALUE BETS
=================
Betting value on Italian football is much harder to find - as my statistics on the last three seasons show that blind betting (taking level stakes on every match) would have lost -13% on home sides and -18% on away sides.

These numbers reflect the fact that the betting markets on Italian football are far less competitive when compared to the English league ... and you need a bigger margin.

There are two value bets on offer :
Fiorentina to beat Empoli @ 1.60 at Canbet
Chievo to beat Torino @ 2.20 at Eurobet.

I'll ignore the 10.00 (9/1) being offered at Betfred for Catania to beat Inter Milan even though it is far above the rest of the market - as at 13% it's too much of an outsider for me ... (although the draw at 4.50 might be worth a sneaky wager).

Good luck with your punts.

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The Sheet -> England - Feb 24th/25th

(click the image to see the full sized sheet)

LIKELY WINNERS
=================
It predicts "likely" winners for both Liverpool and Manchester Utd and with both prices in fair value ranges (99% and 100% respectively) they're a reasonable play - at fair value.

Manchester United to win at Fulham @ 1.50 at Interwetten
Liverpool to beat Sheffield United @ 1.36 at Ladbrokes

VALUE BETS
=================
On the "value" bet side the sheet recommends a play on Charlton @ 2.40 (115%) and Blackburn @ 2.30 (111%).

Note that although Fulham are at 125% value - they are not included in my personal system becasue they are at less than 25% chance of winning.

The estimated 17% equates to a 1 in 6 chance - meaning that I might have to wait for up to six seasons for a payoff and I'm not going to chase that.

So although Fulham are at 7.50 (instead of a fair price of 6.00) it just too unlikely to be worth a play in my opinion.

Charlton Athletic to beat West Ham @ 2.40 at Betsson
Blackburn Rovers to beat Portsmouth @ 2.30 at Bet365

That's four plays worth considering this weekend.
Good luck with whatever you're backing.

Stumble It!

The Sheet -> England - Feb 10th/11th

Welcome back to the blog - apologies for the lack of posts during the week - but International friendlies is just not my thing - and neither are the silly little stories that the press run that sound like they've come direct for the players agents.

I've run the betting sheet for the wekeend - and here are the results for the English Premier League.


(Click the image for a full size sheet)

As you can see there are quite a few punts indicated - and not surprisngly most of them are favouring the home sides ...

Most likely winners are :
==========================================
- Manchester Utd (85%) to beat Charlton
- Chelsea (77%) to beat Middlesbrough
- Arsenal (74%) to beat Wigan Athletic
- Bolton (65%) to beat Fulham
- West Ham (58%) to beat Watford

They're all perfectly understandable - and although nothing is a sure thing I would not be surprised to see the sheet score a 4-1 record there with maybe only one surprise.

However, taking the most likely winners ahs not proven to be the best way to profits, as the bookeis also know this and the prices on offer are usually pretty meagre.

If you look at the home value indicators this week though (HOME %) you can see that all the numbers range from 96%+ meaning that all are at fair value or better - so get on them.

Value Bets are :
==========================================
Value betting - that is to say taking home sides who are considered at least 20% likely and are being offers at 110% value or better has been the best way to make a profit - and we do have several recommendations :
- Everton (50%) to beat Blackburn @ 2.25 (112% value)
- Newcastle (39%) to beat Liverpool @ 4.00 (157% value)
- Sheffield Utd (41%) to beat Tottenham @ 2.90 (119% value)
- West Ham (58%) to beat Watford @ 1.90 (110% value)
- Bolton (65%) to beat Fulham @ 1.73 (113% value)

Any three winners should show a profit - and over the course of the last three months this has returned a positive yield of +37% over at WantaWinner where we run a proofing system under the name of VICTOR in the value bets section.

OK ... that's it for the English sheet - I may publish an Italian list later on - although all this talk about empty stadiums may mean that the strange circumstances make all the ratings a bit useless.

Catch ya later.

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The Sheet - English Football - Jan 1st

(Click the sheet for fullsize version thats readable)

8 Games being played on Monday.

Here's how the sheet reads it.

SYSTEM PICKS
There are three games picked as likely winners :
- Liverpool (60%) to beat Bolton @ 1.65 at Betsson
- Fulham (66%) to beat Watford @ 1.70 at Interwetten
- Man Utd (53%) to win at Newcastle @ 1.62 at Bet365

Taking all three should see two winners and a small profit - although you'd have to be very convincing to get me to take ManYoo at a price of just 1.62 to win at St James's Park.

It's also to be noted that ManYoo is only picked by one half of the spreadsheet (the RES) and that could be considered a warning - reflected in the lower %

VALUE BETS
This method means ignoring the likely winner and simply betting on home sides where the potential payout is significantly better than the risk - basically where the value 110%+ and marked in green.

This method had success last Saturday gettting Sheffield Utd and Everton - while missing on Spurs - for a very tasty 300% yield !!

So we have :
- Newcastle (25%) to beat ManYoo @ 6.50 at Bet365
- Man City (50%) to beat Everton @ 2.40 at PaddyPower
- Portsmouth (49%) to beat Spurs @ 2.40 at Bet365
- Fulham (66%) to beat Watford @ 1.70 at Interwetten

Of course they won't all win but two from four will show a profit (just one winner is needed if it's Newcastle).

Over the last two months the VALUE side has been paying big dividends - but it does tend to go in streaks ...

GL with whatever you're taking.

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Irish Legend Ray Houghton Picks

Today we have links to audio (MP3) previews from a tipster at one of our leading UK and European bookmakers - Paddy Power.com.

Razor Ray Houghton shares his football insights into this weekend's Premiership talking about five games this weekend including Arsneal, Spurs and Liverpool.

Check out the page and have a listen & see what you think!

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Saturday Crackers

With 83 units in the bank, I think that we will probably try 5-6 bets, making it a standard bet of 15 units per play.

The first one is to take Man City to beat Newcastle in the lunchtime kickoff - I make it slightly over 50% - so a price of 2.20+ is worth a shot.

Take Man City for 15 units @ 2.25 at Betsson Sportsbook
(not the lower exchange price)

---

Another game where i think that the home side is over priced is at the Riverside where Middlesbro take on West Ham.

I know that West Ham have won two on the trot - but both were at home - and the Hammers are typically poor when playing away.

Boro are not world beaters but they've beaten both Everton and Newcastle here recently - and again I was expecting prices at about evens.

The 2.34 price at Mansion Exchange is too tempting especially as it's commission free.
Take Middlesbro for 15 units @ 2.34 at Mansion Exchange

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Let's also take a wee trip to Tuscany and back Fiorentina to beat Atalanta on Saturday evening.

Both teams are in the top 7, so it'll be a good clash but I think that the home side have the ability to win this match.

They're 3-0-2 at home, with wins of Reggina, Catania and Parma ... and before losing 1-3 against Roma last weekend they'd won 5 games in a row.

Take Fiorentina for 15 units @ 1.69 at Mansion Exchange

That's three bets for Saturday now ... with more to follow

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