Saturday football : Premier League picks

A quick reminder of all the previews, livescores, odds and services that you can use on the main site for today's English Premier League fixtures.

• Our English Football Preview page.


• My personal Betting Spreadsheet picks page


• The European Football Live Scores Page


• The Best of The Bets Forum for discussions.


• The BookieLabrat Live Odds Page for best odds.

I hope this helps you into making the correct picks today.

Good luck.

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Manchester United lead the Premier League

Manchester United are the new leaders of the Premier League after they beat Sunderland 4-0 on Boxing Day and then saw title rivals Arsenal held to a 0-0 draw at Portsmouth.

United strolled to a straightforward victory at the Stadium of Light.

Wayne Rooney was put clear in the 20th minute and had no trouble beating Craig Gordon with a cool finish, and he turned provider when he broke forward and crossed to Louis Saha who guided the ball home after 30 minutes.

A sublime Cristiano Ronaldo free-kick in first-half injury-time put the game beyond Sunderland and when Nani went down in the box, Saha converted the late penalty (86).

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Arsenal had two great chances to grab the points in the closing stages but William Gallas lifted a shot over the bar from close range and then Tomas Rosicky screwed an effort just wide in injury time.

The result leaves Arsene Wenger's men trailing United by a point at the halfway stage of the season.

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Chelsea also dropped points as the Blues were involved in a riveting 4-4 draw against Aston Villa in a game which saw three players sent off.

Villa took an early 2-0 lead with a Shaun Maloney double. Zat Knight was sent off in first-half injury-time for bringing down Michael Ballack and Andriy Shevchenko scored the resulting penalty, before levelling with a brilliant strike in the 50th minute.

Chelsea went ahead through defender Alex (66) but Martin Laursen equalised for Villa. Ricardo Carvalho was dismissed for a two-footed lunge at Gabriel Agbonlahor but Chelsea went ahead regardless through Michael Ballack's 88th-minute free-kick.

However, Villa earned a penalty when Ashley Cole was sent off for handling on the line, and Gareth Barry scored from the spot to secure a well-earned point.

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Liverpool laboured to a late 2-1 win at Derby and had captain Steven Gerrard to thank for the victory.

Spain international Fernando Torres' excellent dribble and finish put Liverpool a goal up at Pride Park although Rafael Benitez's men struggled to extend their lead.

Jay McEveley equalised on 67 minutes and chances came and went for both sides, before Gerrard - who moments earlier hit the bar - made a tireless burst forward to steam into the box and bundle the ball past Lewis Price in the 90th minute.

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The pressure on Sam Allardyce was cranked up by Newcastle's miserable 1-0 defeat at Wigan.

Ryan Taylor's delightful curling free-kick beat Shay Given to put the Latics ahead - and heap further stress on Allardyce following the 2-2 draw with Derby last weekend.

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Birmingham enjoyed a much-needed 3-0 win against Middlesbrough at St Andrews.

Stewart Downing sliced Gary McSheffrey's driven free-kick into his own net in the 21st minute and Mikael Forssell stabbed home after Cameron Jerome flicked on from a corner.

McSheffrey added a third in added time, converting a penalty after being fouled by Huth in the box.

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Everton beat Bolton 2-0 after a goalless first half at Goodison Park.

The home side edged ahead after 51 minutes when goalkeeper Jussi Jaaskelainen made a mess of clearing Phil Neville's deep cross, allowing the ball to pass him and hit the net.

Tim Cahill made it 2-0 after a scrappy build-up when Rob Styles played a smart advantage and Joleon Lescott crossed accurately.

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Earlier in the day, Tottenham were impressive in a 5-1 win over Fulham as Robbie Keane and Tom Huddlestone scored two apiece and Jermaine Defoe added a late goal, while Moritz Volz was sent off for Fulham.

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West Ham and Reading shared the points in an entertaining 1-1 draw at Upton Park in which the Royals had Brynjar Gunnarsson sent off in the first half.

Nolberto Solano put the Hammers ahead but Dave Kitson secured a point.

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EPL : Arsenal 1-0 Chelsea

William Gallas scored the only goal just before halftime as Arsenal beat Chelsea to stay at the top of the Premier League table.

Gallas headed home the winner in first-half stoppage time to restore a one-point advantage at the summit for Arsene Wenger's team.

He nodded the ball into an empty net after Chelsea goalkeeper Petr Cech came to try and collect a looping Cesc Fabregas corner, but failed to make any contact.

Arsenal had chances to wrap up victory after the break, but Robin van Persie and Emmanuel Adebayor both had goals disallowed while van Persie and Fabregas both wasted great opportunities.

For Chelsea Andriy Shevchenko failed to trouble Manuel Almunia with a free header, and had a blistering free-kick tipped over by the Arsenal goalkeeper.

The victory was a deserved one for an Arsenal team who looked the brighter outfit for most of the 90 minutes as Chelsea struggled without skipper John Terry who went off with a foot injury in the latter stages of the first half.

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Super Sunday Correct Score Plunge.

Betting on either of the big games on Sunday afternoon when Arsenal take on Chelsea and Manchester United travel to Liverpool ?

Me too.

I think that I will be taking advantage of the Ready for War! offer over at PaddyPower which is offering a cash back on all correct score bets if a player is sent off in EITHER game.

That's two high-pressure clashes - and the beauty of getting a cash back due to an event in another game appeals somewhat.

But what also appeals is that these games between the big four clubs do tend to be somewhat predictable with score-draws showing up more and more often as they seem to accept spliting the points.

Manchester United have won four of the last five games at Anfield (see my Liverpool v Man Utd stats page) but I reckon that Liverpool have raised their game this season and a draw is on the cards there.

While in London we can see that Arsenal and Chelsea have drawn four of their last six league clashes at all venues - and the absence of Didier Drogba for Chelsea suggests that goals might be down and Chelsea will make themselves very hard to beat.

While correct scores are a bit of a lottery, I've always liked playing the 1-1 draw, as it keeps your bet alive after the first goal, and typically when a side is losing 0-1 late on they'll push forward looknig for the equaliser.

So a wee punt on 1-1 can add to the interest levels and with prices of 13/2 (7.50) on 1-1 at Anfield and 5.50 at the Emirates there is scope for a tasty payout.

RELATED LINKS :
- PaddyPower (to get the bet on)
- English Premier League Spreadsheet betting stats
- English Premier League Betting Previews

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EPL : Betting Spreadsheet for Dec 1/2

Here is the betting spreadsheet for the weeknd games - but it's not really much use to punters - on Saturday at least.

There are NO likely winners according to the ratings on Saturday - although the RES portion of the sheet does favour both Arsenal and Chelsea potentially - but it's not the most reliable indicator.

If you look at the percentages and the value calculations then you'll see that most of the home sides sit within our fair value band (of 85% to 115%) suggesting that if you have special news to back a home side then you'll get a fair bet.

Away from home we can see theat West Ham are rated at 325% of fair value when priced at 13.00 - but then the spreadsheet does not know that Chelsea have not lost at home for two seasons - and so I'd take that with a grain of salt.

Perhaps though I might be tempted into a bet on the Sunderland v Derby DRAW at 3.70, given that both teams will be scrapping hard to avoid dfeat in a game billed as a six-pointer by both managers.

We will end the wekend with three likely home winner picks on the Sunday/Monday games but once again you hardly needed the sheet to tell you that eh? :
- Liverpool to beat Bolton,
- Tottenham to beat Birmingham
- and Manchester Utd to beat Fulham

Sorry I can't be more use this weekend.

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England : Weekend Betting Sheet Nov 24/25

I've got plenty to be getting on with today so just a quick post with the weekend sheet and the likely winners.

HOME WINNERS
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Arsenal to beat Wigan @ 1.17 at Bet365
Everton to beat Sunderland @ 1.62 at PaddyPower
Manchester City to beat Reading at 1.62 at Paddy Power

AWAY WINNERS
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Manchester United to win at Bolton @ 1.50 at Interwetten
Chelsea to win at Derby @ 1.30 at Interwetten

Good luck if your punting this weekend.

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Arsenal back on top of the table

Arsenal returned to the top of the Premier League after a convincing 3-1 win over Reading at the Madejski Stadium on Monday night.

Mathieu Flamini, Emmanuel Adebayor and Alexander Hleb were all on target for the Gunners, with Nicky Shorey grabbing a late consolation for Reading in what was a dominant Arsenal display.

Cesc Fabregas picked up the man-of-the-match award from Sky Sports with another top display. The 20-year-old has starred in Arsenal's unbeaten start to the season and he admits he is now ready to ditch plans to return to Spain.

Fabregas said : "When I first came to England my idea was to go back to Spain one day ... But the truth is that now I'm happier every day and I love London, the people and the club.

"Every day I have more desire to stay here for a long time, for the rest of my career" - he added.

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England : Weekend Betting Sheet Nov 10/12

Here's the betting Sheet for England's Premier League for the weekend of Nov 10th through until Nov 12th.

On Saturday the sheet thinks that :
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Liverpool will beat Fulham
West Ham have a chance of winning at Derby County

Sunday sees home wins picked on double systems for :
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Chelsea to beat Everton
Tottenham to beat Wigan Athletic
Manchester United to beat Blackburn Rovers

and also single home win picks for :
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Portsmouth to beat Manchesater City
Bolton Wanderers to beat Middlesbrough

In terms of "value betting" there is just one pick this week as the Sheet thinks that 7.25 is far too high for Reading who have a 31% chance of upsetting Arsenal at the Madjeski Stadium.

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Spurs sack boss - It's Jol Over

Tottenham have confirmed the departure of Martin Jol as manager following the UEFA Cup defeat to Getafe.

Spurs have issued a statement revealing the board asked Jol and assistant Chris Hughton to stand down, although there were reports earlier in the evening that the Dutchman had resigned.

A statement from the club read: "We can confirm that the board has this evening asked Martin Jol, club manager and Chris Hughton, first-team coach to stand down from their positions with immediate effect."

Jol added: "I can understand the position of the club in light of the results. I have thoroughly enjoyed my time here. Tottenham Hotspur is a special club and I want to thank the terrific staff and players.

"For me the fans were always amazing with their support so I would also like to say thank you - I shall never forget them."

Development coach Clive Allen and youth team boss Alex Inglethorpe will take charge of the first team for the time being, with Juande Ramos the overwhelming favourite to take over in the long term. Gus Poyet, the former Spurs midfielder, has been linked with an assistant-boss role.

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Bolton : Who is the new manager?

Bolton boss Sammy Lee is out - fired after Bolton won just five points from their first nine Barclays Premier League games.

Lee, who took over from Sam Allardyce towards the end of last season, left Wanderers "by mutual consent" following their disappointing start to the season.

And it looks like former Wigan boss Paul Jewell is odds-on to get the job with Bet Direct at 1.50 about Jewell replacing him, while bet365 are 1.57, and betting exchange Betfair are 2.14.

bet365 spokesman Steve Freeth said: "You won't be getting any prizes for guessing Paul Jewell is the man we have top of our list. "It will be a lot easier replacing Sammy Lee than it would have been Sam Allardyce and you can't see Jewell being out the game for much longer - as long as there was nothing written in his contract by Wigan."

Chris Coleman, currently managing Real Sociedad in Spain's second tier, is the second favourite with most firms, ranging from between 5.50 and 6.00. VC Bet's Dave Jenkins explained: "There are rumours circulating about Coleman returning from Spain and we have to respect these at this stage and he's been priced up accordingly."

Other runners in this list are :
- Watford's Aidy Boothroyd, (15.00 at Bet365, 24.00 at Betfair)
- former Bolton player Peter Reid (11.00 at Betfair)
- and current player Gary Speed (15.00 at Bet365)

These sort of markets fluctuate wildly though - and you usually can get the best prices on at the betting exhcanges - where the "reef-fish" mentality often means that the prices move massively on any sort of rumour.

Well worth a tenner - but nothing more.
:-)

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EPL : Tottenham v Aston Villa

Tottenham take on Aston Villa tonight (Monday night) in a "feature" Premier League game and to be honest there does not look to be a lot to choose from in this one.

Spurs are hovering around the relegation zone - a false position for them - they'll surely click eventually - but winning games is proving hard to do right now.

Spurs have lost 1-3 to both Everton and Arsenal here at the Lane - although the did thrash Derby 4-0 here (then again everyone beats Derby) - and it's just not going right for the desperate Martin Jol right now.

And Aston Villa are an improved outfit this season - impressing with home wins over Chelsea and Everton (both 2-0) and a 0-0 draw at St James's Park too.

The overwhelming feeling I get about Martin O'Neill's side is that they're very tough to break down - they've only conceded 4 goals in 6 games - so I'm not really expecting a goal-fest for the TV cameras.

A tough game to handicap - I'm thinking scores of 0-0, 1-0 or 1-1, so the DRAW probably looks the value option at prices of 3.35 to 3.50 depending on the generousity of your bookmaker or the betting exchange.

PICK : 0-0 DRAW.
ODDS : 3.49 at PinnacleSports or 3.30 at Ladbrokes

RELATED LINK :
Cruiser has his preview of the Spurs v Villa game up on the main site now too.

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Chelsea odds lengthen after another bore draw

Chelsea are out to 8.00 (7/1) at BetFred to win the English Premier League now after another 0-0 draw - this time with Fulham.

There were plenty of boos from the home crowd as the Blues trooped off from Stamford Bridge, and the news got even worse when it was revealed that John Terry suffered a fractured cheekbone and requires surgery.

Arsenal lead the league but are only second favourites at 3.50 (5/2) also at BetFred - after the Gunners claimed another victory with a 1-0 win thanks to a Robin Van Persie goal over West Ham at Upton Park.

Manchester United also grabbed a 1-0 win Birmingham after Cristiano Ronaldo pounced on a defensive error to grab the crucial goal. The Red Devils are now 2.50 (6/4) favourites at Ladbrokes to retain the title.

NEW MANAGER AT THE BRIDGE ?
Guus Hiddink is 7/4 favourite to be Chelsea boss on the first day of next season with imcumbant Avram Grant at 4/1 as is Marco van Basten, Jurgen Klinsmann at 6/1, and Didier Deschamps at 8/1.

RELATED LINKS :
You can get all the latest English Premier League betting odds from 15 bookmakers at BookieLabrat.com - they're compiled in real-time when you enter the page.

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English Football : Betting Spreadsheet Sep 29-30

The English Premier League betting spreadsheet has been published onto the forum.

Link : The Sheet -> Premier League 29/30 Sept

You can see the sheet output there - and ask any questions that you have - as well as see what other punters have to say. I find this easier to manage than blgo comments (and it removes all the SPAM too)

Likely winners system :

HOME
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Chelsea to beat Fulham @ 1.33 at Ladbrokes
Everton to beat Middlesbro @ 1.85 at Eurobet

AWAY
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Blackburn to win at Sunderland @ 2.65 at PinnacleSports
Liverpool to win at Wigan @ 1.65 at Eurobet
Man United to win at Birmingham @ 1.90 at Interwetten

And of course the hugely popular "Gooners Guide to Gambling Discovered Value (GGTG DV)" systems ...

GGTG DV-DRAW
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Birmingham v Man United @ 4.32 at PinnacleSports
Tottenham v Aston Villa @ 3.49 at PinnacleSports

GGTG DV-AWAY
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Aston Villa to win at Tottenham @ 4.33 at Bet365

Good luck with your bets.

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The Sheet -> England - Mon April 9th

Easter Monday SpreadSheet

THE PICKS
As you might imagine with the top 3 sides sitting it out in preparation for the midweek Champions League games - there are no likely winners on Monday.

THE VALUE
there is a bit of value lying about.

(1) Opposing Arsenal
Although the two sides at St James's Park are well matched on Monday (rankings say just one point separates them) the home advantage does tilt the likely winning chances significantly in Newcastles favour - yet they're still outsiders.

Choose whether you're gonna back Newcastle - or back them with a +1/2 handicap start - or even cover the 1x - but tha Arsenal side offer no value - statistically at least.

Of course Gooners everywhere can hope that someone in North London will take the time to explain to our front line what the ****ing goalnets are for and how if they doin't bloody pull finger and convert one chance in 10 then they'll be on the scrapheap next ****ing season ...

But that doesn't seem to be the kindly Mr Wengers style ...

So given that we will concede at least one goal from some sort of set-piece or longball the best we can hope for is one goal from 123 attempts and a 1-1 draw ..

(2) Consider Wigan / Man City & Reading to win away from home.
none of these sides are LIKELY winners - but they are well priced and all three sides are reasonable chances (30%+) to win and offering value above 3.30 so you only need to hit one to make a profit.

So that's four potential bets - and we need two to come off to see a profit.

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The Spreadsheet Picks - England Apr 6/7

THE SHEET SELECTIONS - ENGLAND

THE PICKS
There are five picks in the sheet :
Everton (60%), Arsenal (76%), Chelsea (76%), Boro (67%) to win at home, and Man United (66%) to win away.

THE VALUE
The home sides have the better prices this week with six sides looking to be priced attractively :
Reading (164%)!! are standout with Chelsea (110%), Arsenal (110%), Boro (114%), Sheff Utd (115%) and Portsmouth (112%) all better than fair prices.

Things to note :
(1) Value seems to be favouring the home sides this weekend.

(2) Centrebet have done it again taking 4 best home prices and 5 best away prices for 9/20 or 45% best pricing. Top work that Bookmaker !!

(3) PaddyPowers price for Reading of 4.33 is way outside the rest and is the reason for offering so much value. Whether Reading can actually win is another matter.

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Sunday 4 March - English Premier League Roundup

Tottenham beat West Ham 4-3 in an extraordinary game at Upton Park.

Mark Noble had given the home side the lead on the quarter-hour with a cracking half-volley from Carlos Tevez's clever knockdown. Four minutes before the interval he curled a free-kick in off the bar to double the lead and send the Hammers' fans into ecstasy.

Spurs came out firing after the break and halved the deficit through a Jermain Defoe penalty before Teemu Tainio lashed home a volley from Aaron Lennon's inspired flick.
Then former Spur Bobby Zamora came off the bench to head the Hammers back into the lead five minutes before full-time.

But in a breathless encounter there was still time for Dimitar Barbatov to curl home an 89th-minute free-kick before Stalteri's late clincher in the fifth added minute.

Two second-half Benni McCarthy penalties gave Blackburn a 2-1 win over Bolton at the Reebok.

Nicolas Anelka scored a late goal to make the last few minutes nervous for the visitors, but the Trotters could not salvage an equaliser, although Abdoulaye Faye did have the ball in the net in injury time but was rightly flagged offside.

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English Premier League roundup - 3rd March

John O'Shea scored a dramatic late winner as Barclays Premiership leaders Manchester United snatched a crucial 1-0 victory at Liverpool on Saturday afternoon.

United were outplayed for much of the match at Anfield but grabbed all three points when Ireland defender O'Shea turned in from close range after a Cristiano Ronaldo free-kick in injury time.

Liverpool spurned a number of opportunities to take the game but United held firm, despite the sending off of Paul Scholes, to take another huge step towards the title.

Didier Drogba and Salomon Kalou scored the goals to earn defending champions Chelsea a 2-0 win at Portsmouth and ensure their title hopes are still alive.

But they were made to work hard at Fratton Park and needed two brilliant saves from Petr Cech to keep them in front after Drogba's superb opener.

Kalou then put the game beyond doubt with nine minutes remaining when he slipped the ball under David James after Ashley Cole had headed on Frank Lampard's punt upfield.

Arsenal beat Reading 2-1 to move within a point of Liverpool after with two second-half goals at the Emirates Stadium.

The Gunners made the breakthrough after 49 minutes when Gilberto struck from the penalty spot following a foul on Gael Clichy by Andre Bikey.

Julio Baptista added a second with a solo effort to settle the game on 62 minutes although Reading grabbed a consolation when Cesc Fabregas - who missed a sitter in the first half - put through his own net late on.

Charlton snatched a vital point against Watford in a 2-2 draw as they came from 2-0 down to at Vicarage Road.

Darren Ambrose headed the equaliser a minute from time after Luke Young had got his side back into the game with a tight finish on 67 minutes.

The Hornets had led since the 15th minute when Hameur Bouazza smashed home on the rebound after Scott Carson had saved a header from Damien Francis, who added a second six minutes later.

Meanwhile Wigan secured an important 1-0 win over Manchester City at the City of Manchester Stadium.

Caleb Folan, who scored against City for Chesterfield earlier this season, repeated the feat as he headed in the only goal from a Leighton Baines cross after 18 minutes. City pressed heavily in the second half but Wigan's resolute defence held out for the win.

Aston Villa had to settle for a 1-1 draw at Fulham after seeing their first-half lead quickly cancelled out.

Norwegian John Carew put the visitors into the lead after 21 minutes at Craven Cottage but the hosts responded immediately to level at 1-1. Carlos Bocanegra headed in the equaliser after he was left unattended at a Franck Queudrue free-kick.

Mikel Arteta smashed in a penalty equaliser as Everton drew 1-1 against battling Sheffield United at Bramall Lane.

Rob Hulse had put the Blades on course for victory when he finished brilliantly with a shot across goal from a Colin Kazim-Richards cross on 52 minutes. Everton got back into the game after goalkeeper Paddy Kenny dropped a high ball and brought down Andrew Johnson in the ensuing scramble. Arteta's goal was given after his penalty bounced down over the line off the bar.

The Tyne-Tees derby between Newcastle and Middlesbrough at St James' Park ended goalless.

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The Sheet -> England - Feb 24th/25th

(click the image to see the full sized sheet)

LIKELY WINNERS
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It predicts "likely" winners for both Liverpool and Manchester Utd and with both prices in fair value ranges (99% and 100% respectively) they're a reasonable play - at fair value.

Manchester United to win at Fulham @ 1.50 at Interwetten
Liverpool to beat Sheffield United @ 1.36 at Ladbrokes

VALUE BETS
=================
On the "value" bet side the sheet recommends a play on Charlton @ 2.40 (115%) and Blackburn @ 2.30 (111%).

Note that although Fulham are at 125% value - they are not included in my personal system becasue they are at less than 25% chance of winning.

The estimated 17% equates to a 1 in 6 chance - meaning that I might have to wait for up to six seasons for a payoff and I'm not going to chase that.

So although Fulham are at 7.50 (instead of a fair price of 6.00) it just too unlikely to be worth a play in my opinion.

Charlton Athletic to beat West Ham @ 2.40 at Betsson
Blackburn Rovers to beat Portsmouth @ 2.30 at Bet365

That's four plays worth considering this weekend.
Good luck with whatever you're backing.

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Premiership Relegation Analysis

Relegation Battle Likely to Go Right to the Wire
In football as in life, everything that goes-around, usually comes-around. On the final day of the Premiership season, West Ham travel to Old Trafford for a game that could conceivably be decisive in both the title and relegation battles. For Manchester United fans it could also serve as payback for the painful memory of the final fixture in the 1994/95 season. The Red Devils were denied a historic third straight Premiership title following a 1-1 draw at Upton Park, by what a pig-sick Alex Ferguson called, "An obscene amount of effort".

West Ham Signings Expensive Throw of the Dice
The Hammers will probably need an equally obscene amount of effort in order to avoid relegation this term. Their final seven games feature Everton, Bolton and Chelsea all at home, as well as a visit to the Emirates Stadium on April 7th, so the bubbles might have already burst before they visit the Theatre of Dreams on May 13th.

The Hammers have endured a turbulent season changing both manager and owner while suffering a negative backlash from the signing of Argentine duo, Carlos Tevez and Javier Mascherano, whose arrival coincided with the club's worst run for 74 years. Alan Curbishley replaced Alan Pardew in mid-December and made a dream start defeating Man Utd at Upton Park but the necessity of a defensive overhaul was underlined by a 6-0 defeat at Reading on New Year's Day.

Curbs has followed the example of Harry Redknapp last season, and splashed the cash, investing heavily in defenders Lucas Neill and Matthew Upson. This represents an expensive throw of the dice, the danger of which was demonstrated when both were injured on their debuts. West Ham's problems cannot necessarily be solved by money alone. A lack of desire dubbed the 'Baby Bentley' mentality won't necessarily be helped by parachuting in big earners, who will need to integrate quickly.

Wigan Suffering Backlash of Success
In contrast Wigan aren't prepared to mortgage themselves against the potential rewards of Premiership survival. Manager Paul Jewel declined to sign any 'big' players, but at least he and Wigan's supporters can draw some comfort from a relatively kind end-of-season run-in. Wigan's survival battle is however handicapped by consistently being the worst supported club in the Premiership despite slashing ticket prices. "We need the fans to be our 12th man" said Jewell. "I hope the supporters will join us for the battle."

After a first season in the Premiership when Wigan shocked everyone by finishing 10th and reaching the Carling Cup final, the Lancashire club has become a victim of their own success. Many of those players crucial to last term's achievements, particularly Pascal Chimbonda, Jimmy Bullard, and Jason Roberts - cashed in with lucrative transfer deals and with them went some of the heart that drove Wigan to success last term.

Charlton Must Avoid End-of-Season Wilt
In their seventh consecutive season in the Premiership, Charlton are in their greatest peril of relegation. It is no coincidence that Alan Curbishley, who took them into the top flight and kept them there with modest resources, left at the end of last season. His successor, Iain Dowie, struggled with the legacy lasting just three months in charge,

The responsibility of saving the club has now passed to Alan Pardew, available after being relieved of his duties at West Ham. His biggest challenge is breaking the club's tendency to wilt badly towards the end of the season. In 2005/06 the Addicks took just five points from their last seven games; in 2004/05 just two points over the same stretch. That kind of form would be terminal this time around. Charlton have found goals hard to come-by, so the form of Darren Bent, who many had expected to leave in the January sales, is critical.

Writing Has Been on the Wall for Watford
The writing has been on the wall for Watford since defeat at Goodison Park in the opening game of their first Premiership season. The Hornets went ten games before finally recording a victory and have been favourites with www.PinnacleSports.com to finish bottom of the pile throughout. Despite some bad breaks, manager Aidy Boothroyd has remained philosophical. However, the sale of Ashley Young in January was probably the final nail in the coffin and an indication that the board were cashing in their chips and preparing for life in the Championship.

Watford's revenue is 4% of United's demonstrating the widening gap between the Premiership's haves and have nots since it was reduced to 20 teams. 40 points was considered the survival watermark, but as the Premiership has become increasingly polarised by wealth, point distribution has changed. 35 points would have been enough to stay up in five of the last seven seasons, and should be regarded by punters in the relegation market as a benchmark for this term.

This year's Premiership survival battle has special resonance with the new media and TV rights packages worth GBP 2.7 billion over three years. In real terms, survival is worth a minimum of GBP 30 million.

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Arsenal 2-1 Wigan : 3 points (w. Video)

Arsenal are never at their best after an international midweek break and so it proved again as the Gunners had to battle long and hard before scoring twice in the last 10 minutes to beat Wigan 2-1.

Wigan score a beauty

Wigan opened the scoring in the first half via a screamer of a goal from Danny Landzaat, who thumped the ball home from about 28 yards after the ball broke to him from a tackle.

Heskey might have made it 2-0 but Jens Lehmann got his fingertips to the strikers finish and pushed the ball onto the post and the Arsenal keeper reacted quickest to gobble up the rebound.

Into the second half and Heskey missed a couple more half chances to grab a second goal and then was involved in a penalty claim after a clash with Flamini.

Get up you big girl ...

Flamini touched Heskey, thats "touched" him with his arm. He didn't grab, push or throw him, he didn't trip him or make contact with his legs - but Heskey piroletted to the ground in a scene very reminiscent of Swan Lake - yelling and appealing on the way down.

The referee said play on - Wigan boss Paul Jewell is still whining about it asking "why would Heskey dive? - Perhaps because he'd already missed 3 chances and knew he had far more likelihood from the penalty spot ?!

Controversial Equaliser

Arsenal went down the other end and scored through an own goal by the unfortunate Fitz Hall - who had to get a foot in to stop Henry from applying the finishing touch.

All sorts of controversty with Paul Jewell complaining about offside (but of course ignoring the fact that Adebayor had a goal incorrectly disallowed for offside 10 miutes earlier) ... while Theirry Henry got in trouble for taunting Wigan Keeper Chris Kirkland and asking him if he was going to keep on timewasting.

Of course the TV pundits decided that Henry was comitting some sort of crime against humanity and that he should make a public apology - while Gooners everywhere think that Kirkland has been wasting time since halftime with overlaborate goal kick routinues and having wasted at least 5 minutes and got exactly what was coming to him.

Cracking Winner

Of course what it really did was put some more emotion into the game - with Arsenal players and fans winding themselves up ... and Four minutes later Arsenal created a similar move, this time it was Batista crossing and Tomas Rosicky who supplied a headered finish ... and the reaction in the ground said it all.



... and Arsenal had completed yet another comeback win.

In the end it's three more points in the bag - but the first 45 minutes were pretty lacklustre - and there is plenty for Arsene Wenger to think on.

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Arsenal 2-1 Man Utd review with video

Arsenal produced a stunning late comeback to beat Premiership leaders Manchester United 2-1 on Sunday and breathe new life into the title race.

Thierry Henry headed a superb winner in stoppage time after Robin van Persie had netted on 83 minutes to cancel out Wayne Rooney's opener.

Sir Alex Ferguson's side started the game confidently and dominated the early possession. And twice they almost went in front in the dying seconds of the first half.

Both times they were denied by superb Jens Lehmann saves - the first to tip over a Rooney volley and the second to push away a Henrik Larsson header.

United did break the deadlock eight minutes into the second half as Patrice Evra went on a superb run down the left before crossing to the far post where the unmarked Rooney headed home.

Arsenal refused to give up though, and United seemed to be sitting back protecting the 1-0 lead, which allowed Arsenal to keep getting the ball into dangerous areas.

On 83 minutes Cesc Fabregas and Tomas Rosicky battled hard to win the ball back before the Czech crossed low into the box. And a faint touch from Henry diverted the ball to van Persie at the back post, who crashed the ball into the roof of the United net.

Then deep into stoppage time Henry sent the Emirates faithful wild with delight, beating Edwin van der Sar with a superb header from an Emmanuel Eboue cross.



If you prefer the live match coverage - here's Henry's injury time goal and celebration.

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EPL : Blackburn 0-2 Arsenal

A goal of breathtaking quality from Thierry Henry saw Arsenal make light of Gilberto's early red card to earn a valuable victory "oop North."

Gilberto's 13th-minute dismissal - for reacting to a pair of nasty fouls from Robbie Savage - put Arsenal under pressure - but the side seem to have benefitted from their recent exploits at Anfield and simply knuckled down.

(As an aside .... this is a part of the game that the FA, UEFA and FIFA have to get sorted out - while I understand the rules on retaliation - the end result here was unfair - just as it was in the World Cup 2006 final.

If a player is provoked into retaliation as the result of repeated fouls - or a foul mouth - and the referee deems that he should be sent off - then I think that BOTH players should be sent from the field.)

Anyway - Arsenal simply adjusted to a 4-4-1 and counter attacking tactics and dominated the possession from thereafter.

Kolo Toure's excellent header from Henry's free-kick gave Arsenal the half-time lead at Ewood Park .. (see video)

Toure
Uploaded by GoonerGoals

And Theirry Henry wrapped it up - starting inside his own half - tearing down the sideline and interpassing with Cesc Fabregas before sending an exquisite shot arcing past Brad Friedel into the top right-hand corner

Henry goal v Blackburn - 13 january 2007
Uploaded by Richie2710

At 2-0 the game was over - and if anything it was Arsenal who were more likely to get the third.

Next up is Manchester United's visit next weekend, then three cup games as we face Spurs in two-legs of the Carling Cup semi, and Bolton in the FA Cup.

Busy times ... but who cares when you're winning eh ?
;-)

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The Sheet - English Football - Jan 2nd

There are two games on Tuesday - and the sheet calculates that mathematically both of the favourites are likely to win and are also at better than fair value.

Arsenal v Charlton
Arsenal are considered 89% likely to win this game by the sheet - that might be a little overdone as Arsenal have a significant injury problems - and that could also explain the price of 1.30.

But still Arsenal do have the weapons to win this game and are obvious favourites.

PICK : ARSENAL (89%) at 1.30 at PremierBet

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Aston Villa v Chelsea
Chelsea might be conceding a few goals - they have let in two goals in each of the last four games - but they are scoring plenty too - and with 10 goals scored that's impressive attacking.

In comparision Aston Villa have lost four games in a row - and if you think that Chelsea are wobbling then Villa are in freefall.

PICK : CHELSEA (69%) at 1.60 at Interwetten

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OK - let's see if we can pick up a pair of wins on Tuesday eh?

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The Sheet - English Football - Jan 1st

(Click the sheet for fullsize version thats readable)

8 Games being played on Monday.

Here's how the sheet reads it.

SYSTEM PICKS
There are three games picked as likely winners :
- Liverpool (60%) to beat Bolton @ 1.65 at Betsson
- Fulham (66%) to beat Watford @ 1.70 at Interwetten
- Man Utd (53%) to win at Newcastle @ 1.62 at Bet365

Taking all three should see two winners and a small profit - although you'd have to be very convincing to get me to take ManYoo at a price of just 1.62 to win at St James's Park.

It's also to be noted that ManYoo is only picked by one half of the spreadsheet (the RES) and that could be considered a warning - reflected in the lower %

VALUE BETS
This method means ignoring the likely winner and simply betting on home sides where the potential payout is significantly better than the risk - basically where the value 110%+ and marked in green.

This method had success last Saturday gettting Sheffield Utd and Everton - while missing on Spurs - for a very tasty 300% yield !!

So we have :
- Newcastle (25%) to beat ManYoo @ 6.50 at Bet365
- Man City (50%) to beat Everton @ 2.40 at PaddyPower
- Portsmouth (49%) to beat Spurs @ 2.40 at Bet365
- Fulham (66%) to beat Watford @ 1.70 at Interwetten

Of course they won't all win but two from four will show a profit (just one winner is needed if it's Newcastle).

Over the last two months the VALUE side has been paying big dividends - but it does tend to go in streaks ...

GL with whatever you're taking.

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TheSheet - England - Dec 30th

(Click the image to see the sheet in full size)

DISCUSSION
No-one should be too surprised by what you see there ...

Three home win picks in :
- Chelsea (74%) to beat Fulham @ 1.22 at Ladbrokes
- Bolton (62%) to beat Portsmouth @ 2.05 at Canbet
- Man United (71%) to beat Reading @ 1.21 at Globet

(oops - apologies for the earlier typo)

Theoretically the sheet says that both Chelsea and Manchester Utd are not at fair value (rated at 86% and 90% value respectively) when it compares their dominance to a 9 year history of similar games - as the favoured team only wins about 7/10.

But I still expect to see a huge number of accumulator bets with these two teams paired up - and it will probably payoff too.
(which makes it twice as hard to preach about value betting on the forum)

Three possible value plays in :
- Tottenham (49%) to beat Liverpool @ 2.70 at PaddyPower
- Sheff_Utd(22%) to surprise Arsenal @ 7.50 at SportingOdds
- Everton (51%) to beat Newcastle @ 2.25 at Betsson

OTHER GAMES :
Arsenal (57%) are the only away side given a good chance of winning when they travel to face Sheffield United but the price of 1.53 (at Ladbrokes) is very bad value - as the bookies anticipate plenty of money following the Gunners and have offered a lousy price.

However one other away side worth a possible punt is Wigan Athletic (40%) to win at Watford because the 2.70 price (at PaddyPower) is better than the 2.50 fair value price.

Good luck with your Saturday punts.

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Undercover agent Ashley Cole strikes back ?

Is Ashely Cole really a loyal Gooner working undercover to screw Chelsea's season from the inside ???

Crazy?
Watch the video and then see what you think !


Nah - he's just a useless c*nt !!
55K per week! You're having a laugh ...

Another nice buy by Abramovich !!
Hah haha haha haha ha haa

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The Sheet - English Premier league - Dec 26/27

(Click the image for the full size sheet)

Here is the sheet for Boxing Day - and there is a good mix of obvious bets - and less obvious bets at tasty prices.

The obvious is Home wins for
- Chelsea 75% to beat Reading (1.20 @ VCBet)
- Man Utd 73% to beat Wigan (1.20 @ Interwetten)

The less obvious (and better priced) choices are :
- Bolton 62% to beat Newcastle (1.95 @ VCBet)
- Tottenham 53% to beat Aston Villa (1.83 @ SportingOdds)

Value Bets has two good options :
- Sheff Utd 49% to beat ManCity (2.35 @ Canbet)
- West Ham 50% to beat Portsmouth (2.35 @ Betsson)

So that's six games where the home team can be backed with some expectation of success ...

-------------------------

Then there are two bets to consider laying the away favourites as they are at such lousy prices :

Arsenal (51%) at Watford are just 1.45 !!

I don't care how poor Watford are - the Arse are still very consistant and the 6-2 over Blackburn was not totally convincing - as it was just 3-2 with 5 minutes left.

Take Watford +1.25 goals start(1.90 @ PinnacleSports) as I make it about 60%-65% likely that you'll get some sort of payout as an arsenal winning by 2+ goals is only about 35-40% chance.

Liverpool (31%) at Blackburn are only 1.95.

But Rovers are much better at home and will surely have a reaction to the 2-6 thrashing by Arsenal. I much prefer taking Blackburn on +1/2 handicap to avoid defeat than backing Liverpool here.

Take Blackburn +1/2 goal start(2.15 @ PinnacleSports) rather than Liverpool -1/2 at 1.80 - as this game will be fairly even.

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Arsenal 6-2 Blackburn

... And THAT was a game to be added to the video archive of all Gooners - as the game summed up this current Arsenal side completely.

GOALS AT THE WRONG END.
Arsenal gave up a goal inside three minutes after Kolo Toure knocked over ex-Gooner David Bentley in the penalty area and Blackburn's Shabani Nonda put the visitors 1-0 up.

SLICK PASSING GOONERS.
That seemed to strike a nerve within Arsenal and the next 30 minutes we were treated to some of the slickest passing that I've seen in the Premier League as Fabragas Cesc pulled the strings and really made Arsenal play some beautiful stuff.

Surprisingly though Arsenal's equaliser came through the air, as Toure headed onto the crossbar and from a second corner Gilberto Silva was left free to head in from the back post. 1-1

Then Robin Van Persie and Adebeyor created a goal chance for Alexander Hleb who converted sweetly (2-1) and then Lucas Neill bundled over Van Persie for a home penalty which Adebayor stroked home. (3-1).

COASTING INTO PROBLEMS
The second half started well with Tomas Rosicky almost scoring when his effort was deflected onto the woodwork, but then Arsenal seemd to relax and Blackburn got back into the game - this time through an overhead kick by Nonda. (3-2).

Then Arsenal were grateful for the agility of Jens Lehmann who saved brilliantly from Pedersen to preserve the lead and it looked like it was gonig to be a nervous last 5 minutes.

GOAL RUSH SHOWS WENGER KNOWS HIS FOOTBALL
But Arsene Wenger does seem to know how to produce a side full of invention, and suddenly the Gunenrs switched back on to score three more goals in five minutes (plus injury time).

Van Persie started it with a great shot after running around several Blackburn defenders (4-2), before Arsneal and Cesc produced a magnificent move to set up Van Persie again (5-2), and there was even time for Mathieu Flamini to make it six, after he reacted to the rebound off a Cesc shot (6-2).

ALL WELL THAT ENDS WELL - THIS TIME
So Arsenal dish up a Christmas treat for all Gooners, and all neutral viewers, but in several patches they just seemed to drift off and on another day we could possibly have been cursing our luck and staring at a 3-3 draw !!

MERRY XMAS
All that remained was for the home fans to stream out of the stadium happy - and for Arsenal fans everywhere to remember to raise a glass (of French Claret?) on Christmas Day and toast what was - in the end - a hugely enjoyable match.

Have a great holiday period guys - see you all on Boxing Day.



Here's a video of the highlights (10 minutes or so).

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Wigan 0 - 1 Arsenal

Late Adebayor Strike Reminds Gooners of the Old Days.

There was a familiar chant last night, as "one-nil to the Arsenal" rang out, but it's been a while since this current crop of Gunners has heard it.

Arsene Wenger's skillful side moved back into 3rd place with a display of tenacity and resilience against Wigan - to suggest this young team in transition is rapidly toughening up.

This match was drifting towards its final minute still goal less, when the substitute Cesc Fabregas conjured a flash of genius to arc a sublime pass over the hosts back-line for Emmanuel Adebayor to gather.

The Togolese striker had missed two clearcut chances earlier but now the big man steered his shot accurately beyond the distraught Chris Kirkland and into the corner of the net to secure Arsenal's first away win in five attempts.

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Man United now Premier League favourites !!

It was another frenetic weekend of Premiership action with Manchester United beating their local rivals 3-1, Bolton writing the final chapter of the Alan Pardew story at West Ham and Arsenal earning a point at Stamford Bridge.

It’s also been a significant weekend for Premiership odds because for the first time since December 2004 we see that Chelsea are no longer favourites to win the Premiership !

Sportingodds.com are now giving Chelsea away at 19/20 for the Premiership.

Is this an early Christmas present - could this be one of the bets of the year by the time May rolls around ?

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Arsenal unlikely to get Chrismas Wish

Arsenal boss Arsene Wenger has revealed that Thierry Henry will miss all of Arsenal's Christmas programme and is unlikely to be available until after the New Year because of a hamstring injury.

Henry has been sidelined recently with a neck problem but Wenger is more worried by the new setback. "Thierry Henry has started his rehabilitation," Wenger said. "He's still not completely free with his hamstring but he starts to work again.

"We hope we can build him up and make him competitive again. The neck problem is sorted out. It was sciatic nerve problem but the hamstring is the most troubling at the moment."

Asked if Henry would be out until the New Year, Wenger said: "Realistically, certainly yes. I wouldn't set a precise timescale as it's difficult to predict but Christmas certainly we will miss him."

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Chelsea 1-1 Arsenal

Mathieu Flamini gave Arsenal a surprise lead with 12 minutes to go before Michael Essien levelled with a stunning 35-yard strike six minutes later.

Chelsea then hit the woodwork twice as they searched for the winner but the game finished even.

So Arsenal exported our Emirates curse to Stamford Bridge - let's hope we left it there.

Consider :
- home side dominates
- concedes the first goal against run of play
- hits posts
- eventually gets equaliser
- pushes for winner
- has to settle for a point

... sound familiar at all?

Much better to be on the giving end this time.

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