The Gooners Guide to Gambling Blog

Thursday, June 07, 2007

UEFA U21 Euro 2007 Betting Analysis

UEFA U21 Euro 2007 - Tournament Starts June 10

The UEFA under 21 Championships kicks off in Holland on Saturday.

This competition has proved a fertile spawning ground for future super-stars, while some of faces on show will already be familiar to bettors.

The future soccer talent of Europe will be show in Holland for the next two weeks as the continent’s eight best under-21 national teams clash. The tournament has existed since 1978 but has undergone regular modification.

For 2007 the competition has been moved to odd years so as not to clash with the major international senior competitions, while for the first time the hosts – Holland – were chosen before qualification began, thereby sidestepping that process.

The Dutch are coincidentally the holders of the trophy, which they lifted in Portugal last year, after beating the Ukraine 3-0 in the final. That was the first time the Jong Oranje had claimed the title, but they have another great chance as hosts.

Holland kick-off two weeks of action against Israel, with PinnacleSports promising to offer top asian handicap odds on every UEFA U21 Euro 2007 game throughout the tournament.

The key issue to keep in mind is that there is little continuity from one competition to the next as players must be under the age of 21 when the qualification process begins. Given that stipulation, few of the winning Dutch side in 2006 will remain, but success in the event is a reflection of the effectiveness of international you acadamies.

Italy have enjoyed the most success in this competition, lifting the trophy on five occasions since their first success in 1992. On that evidence alone the nation that produced the current World Champions will be popular with bettors.

England fielding several high-profile players, warmed up for their opening against the Czech Republic by thrashing Slovakia 5-0, after which coach, Stuart Pearce staged a mock penalty shoot-out. Pearce has first-hand experience of the pain of losing on spot-kicks going back to Italia 90, so hopes the rehearsal will pay dividends. The Czechs were rocked by the withdrawal of their captain, Martin Latka, four days before the off.

Israel take a football team to an major international event for the first time since the 1976 Olympic Games, with several of the squad, including Chelsea's Ben Sahar having already made their debuts in the full senior side. They have a tough Group A opening game against the hosts and holders, while the sections other two sides, Portugal and Belgium, play later in the evening.

The final side making up the eight team event are Serbia, who lifted the event in 1978 when it first appeared in this format. Coach Miroslav Djukic can call on four senior international players who should add invaluable experience.

Check out the UEFA U21 odds at PinnacleSports now

Labels: , , , ,

StumbleUpon Toolbar Stumble It!

Tuesday, April 03, 2007

The Sheet - Midweek UEFA CL 3/4 Apr 2007



Here is the sheet for the four Champions league Quearter Final games - and as you can see there are no "likely picks" in this round as the quality of the field tightens up.

VALUE BETTING
There are of course the usual "value bets" to consider.

AC Milan (52%) are considered the most likely winner of the round as they face Baryern Munich and with a best price of 2.10 (at PinnacleSports) that's considered better than fair value at 109%.

Elesewhere PSV Eindhoven are favoured over Liverpool, Chelsea to beat Valenica (although the Valencia win price is huge and good value) and Man United are possibles to beat Roma - however all three games could easily finish in draws.

ROMA V MAN UTD - LOW HOME RATING?
However, one thing to note is AS Roma's low home rating - which may have been affected by playing games in empty stadiums a couple of seasons back.

If I manually adjust their home rating to a "nominal" value of 1000 then the expected percentages become 41-32-27 tilted in AS Roma's favour ... and the home win bet is then 114% value.

Of course it's your call which number is more accurate.

Good luck with your bets this week.
;-)

Labels: , , ,

StumbleUpon Toolbar Stumble It!

Tuesday, March 20, 2007

FA Cup Semi-Final, Final and Winner ?


Chelsea beat Tottenham 2-1, and Manchester Utd edged past Middlesbro 1-0 on Monday night to complete the quarter-final stage.

However the bookmakers think that the Semi-Finals will be a formality with some prominant bookies pricing a Chelsea v ManYoo final at just 1.33 (1/3)

Manchester United are now the favourites for the Cup (given their easier semi-final draw) and are priced at just 2.00 (evens) to win the trophy with Chelsea out to 2.25 (5/4).

The other two sides have been dismissed by bookmakers and punters alike with Blackburn Rovers out to 10.00 (9/1) while relegation bound Watford are priced up at 26.00 (25/1)

SEMI-FINAL DRAW (14/15th April)
Manchester United v Watford
Chelsea v Blackburn.

BEST OUTRIGHT WINNER PRICES
Manchester Utd 2.00 @ Bet365 and PaddyPower
Chelsea 2.25 @ Bet365, Ladbrokes, and PaddyPower
Blackburn 10.00 @ BetFred and and PaddyPower
Watford 26.00 @ Bet365, BetFred and and PaddyPower :)

Good luck with your bets.

Labels: , , , , ,

StumbleUpon Toolbar Stumble It!

Saturday, March 10, 2007

Champions League Quarter-Final Draw

The prospect of an English winner leapt on Friday when the three Premiership sides - Chelsea, Manchester United and Liverpool - were all kept apart in the last eight.

The weight of money has quickly backed the three side into the favoured positions at the bookmakers - although punters optimism is routinely misplaced and it does serve to make some of the European clubs very good prices indeed.

Chelsea were given the most difficult draw of the English sides against Valencia, where they must travel to the Mestalla for the second leg.

Man United were paired with Serie A side Roma while Liverpool were matched against rank outsiders PSV Eindhoven and both they and the Red Devils will play the second leg of their tie at home.

OUTRIGHT WINNERS - AND THE BEST ODDS
Chelsea 4.50 @ Ladbrokes
Manchester United 5.07 @ PinnacleSports
Liverpool 7.00 @ Bet365
AC Milan 9.00 @ EuroBet
Valencia 10.00 @ Interwetten
Bayern München 12.00 @ Ladbrokes
AS Roma 12.00 @ Interwetten
PSV Eindhoven 26.00 @ Eurobet

Labels: , , , ,

StumbleUpon Toolbar Stumble It!

Saturday, March 03, 2007

The Sheets - England / Italy / Germany - 3rd/4th Mar

Hello - thanks for checking out the blog today.

Because I'm running a bit behind schedule this weekend we're going to do things a little differently today, as I'm going to discuss each sheet briefly and then point you to the Betting Forum where the sheets are posted and you can join in the discussion.

ENGLISH SHEET. (FORUM LINK - or go DIRECT TO POST )

LIKELY BETS
===========================
Arsenal to beat Reading.
Chelsea to win at Portsmouth.

Of course the sheet knows nothing about injuries to John Terry, or to Thierry Henry, or about upcoming European geames (etc) so you have to apply your own modifiers to those percentage numbers and decide whether it's still worth a play.

VALUE BETS
=================================
An interesting sheet for the weekend with 6 teams raising the GREEN FLAG for value :

Liverpool to beat Manchester Utd
Arsenal to beat Reading
Fulham to beat Aston Villa
Sheff Utd to beat Everton
Portsmouth to beat Chelsea
West Ham to beat Tottenham

Place six singles and if you get three or more winners then you'll be in profit.

ITALIAN SHEET. (FORUM LINK - or go DIRECT TO POST )

LIKELY BETS
=============================
There are three games that most people would pick and all of them appear to be at fair or better value too.

Milan AC to beat Chievo @ 1.40 (Saturday)
Fiorentina to beat Torino @ 1.40
Lazio to beat Sampdoria @ 1.80


GERMAN SHEET. (FORUM LINK - or go DIRECT TO POST )

LIKELY BETS
===================
Only one is recommended by both halves of the sheet with Werder Bremen the obvious choice to beat Bochum - but the price of 1.33 is very poor value.

There are two "half recommendations :
Wolfsburg to beat Mochengladbach at 1.95
Dortmund to beat Cottbus @ 1.65

The first bet is on Saturday and seems to have some value as well

VALUE BETS
=============================
Hertha Berlin to beat Bayern Munich at 3.30 !!
3.30 !! that's a good price.
:-)

Labels: , , , , , ,

StumbleUpon Toolbar Stumble It!

Friday, March 02, 2007

Rovers in to 6/1 to win FA Cup after beating Arsenal

Blackburn have been made 3rd favourites and are into as short as 6/1 for FA Cup glory after they knocked out Arsenal in their fifth-round replay on Wednesday night.

Benni McCarthy's late strike earned Rovers a 1-0 win at Ewood Park and a quarter-final with Manchester City. You can still get a bet on Blackburn as big as 9/1 (10.00) at SportingOdds

Chelsea (13/8 with Ladbrokes) and Manchester United (7/4 at PaddyPower) have both been shortened following the Gunners' demise.

IF you want to bet against recent history and still think that an outsider can win then you can get some very tasty prices :
- Spurs can be backed at 12/1 at BetFred and Ladbrokes
- Manchester City are 16s at SportingOdds
- Middlesbrough on 20/1 at SportingOdds,
- Watford on 33/1 over at Victor Chandler
- and biggest of all is Plymouth at 66s at SportingOdds

(all prices accurate as at midday Fri 2nd March)

Labels: , , , ,

StumbleUpon Toolbar Stumble It!

Friday, February 23, 2007

The Sheet -> England - Feb 24th/25th


(click the image to see the full sized sheet)

LIKELY WINNERS
=================

It predicts "likely" winners for both Liverpool and Manchester Utd and with both prices in fair value ranges (99% and 100% respectively) they're a reasonable play - at fair value.

Manchester United to win at Fulham @ 1.50 at Interwetten
Liverpool to beat Sheffield United @ 1.36 at Ladbrokes

VALUE BETS
=================

On the "value" bet side the sheet recommends a play on Charlton @ 2.40 (115%) and Blackburn @ 2.30 (111%).

Note that although Fulham are at 125% value - they are not included in my personal system becasue they are at less than 25% chance of winning.

The estimated 17% equates to a 1 in 6 chance - meaning that I might have to wait for up to six seasons for a payoff and I'm not going to chase that.

So although Fulham are at 7.50 (instead of a fair price of 6.00) it just too unlikely to be worth a play in my opinion.

Charlton Athletic to beat West Ham @ 2.40 at Betsson
Blackburn Rovers to beat Portsmouth @ 2.30 at Bet365

That's four plays worth considering this weekend.
Good luck with whatever you're backing.

Labels: , , , ,

StumbleUpon Toolbar Stumble It!

Saturday, February 10, 2007

The Sheet -> England - Feb 10th/11th

Welcome back to the blog - apologies for the lack of posts during the week - but International friendlies is just not my thing - and neither are the silly little stories that the press run that sound like they've come direct for the players agents.

I've run the betting sheet for the wekeend - and here are the results for the English Premier League.


(Click the image for a full size sheet)

As you can see there are quite a few punts indicated - and not surprisngly most of them are favouring the home sides ...

Most likely winners are :
==========================================
- Manchester Utd (85%) to beat Charlton
- Chelsea (77%) to beat Middlesbrough
- Arsenal (74%) to beat Wigan Athletic
- Bolton (65%) to beat Fulham
- West Ham (58%) to beat Watford

They're all perfectly understandable - and although nothing is a sure thing I would not be surprised to see the sheet score a 4-1 record there with maybe only one surprise.

However, taking the most likely winners ahs not proven to be the best way to profits, as the bookeis also know this and the prices on offer are usually pretty meagre.

If you look at the home value indicators this week though (HOME %) you can see that all the numbers range from 96%+ meaning that all are at fair value or better - so get on them.

Value Bets are :
==========================================
Value betting - that is to say taking home sides who are considered at least 20% likely and are being offers at 110% value or better has been the best way to make a profit - and we do have several recommendations :
- Everton (50%) to beat Blackburn @ 2.25 (112% value)
- Newcastle (39%) to beat Liverpool @ 4.00 (157% value)
- Sheffield Utd (41%) to beat Tottenham @ 2.90 (119% value)
- West Ham (58%) to beat Watford @ 1.90 (110% value)
- Bolton (65%) to beat Fulham @ 1.73 (113% value)

Any three winners should show a profit - and over the course of the last three months this has returned a positive yield of +37% over at WantaWinner where we run a proofing system under the name of VICTOR in the value bets section.

OK ... that's it for the English sheet - I may publish an Italian list later on - although all this talk about empty stadiums may mean that the strange circumstances make all the ratings a bit useless.

Catch ya later.

Labels: , , ,

StumbleUpon Toolbar Stumble It!

Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Football Action for 30 Jan 2007

( All odds taken from Ladbrokes )

West Ham v Liverpool
Is Alan Curbishley the right man to keep West Ham up? Is Nigel Quashie really the answer to a midfield lacking fight? Is Lucas Neill worth a reported £70k a week?

West Ham fans will be hoping these questions are answered sooner rather than later but the Hammers are priced at 8/1 (9.00) to snatch a 1-0 win against Liverpool .. which tells you what the bookies think !!

Portsmouth vs Boro
Harry Redknapp's Portsmouth (5/6 or 1.83) continue to punch above their weight this season and currently sit in sixth position in the Premiership.

Pompey take on Middlesbrough at Fratton Park on Tuesday and are 7/1 ( 8.00) to win 2-1.

FA Cup Favourites
So Manchester Utd will face Premiership opposition once again. The Red Devils have drawn Reading in the fifth round of the FA Cup and, as a result, they are now 5/2 (3.50) to go all the way.

However, Chelsea, who meet Blackpool or Norwich in the 5th round are the 2/1 ( 3.00) shortest favourites.

Labels: , , , , ,

StumbleUpon Toolbar Stumble It!

Friday, January 19, 2007

The Spreadsheet :
England Premier League Picks



( Click the image to see the full sized sheet )

THE PICKS :
You can see that the sheet is basically betting against the teams with woeful away records this week.

There are three likely winning recommendations :
- Portsmouth to beat Charlton @ 1.60 at Interwetten
- Newcastle to beat West Ham @ 2.00 at PaddyPower
- Aston Villa to beat Watford @ 1.65 at Globet

THE VALUE :
There is plenty of green ink on the sheet as well this weekend - with six home bets looking like they're worth a play :
- Middlesbro (52%) @ 2.55 to beat Bolton (134% value)
- Newcastle (65%) @ 2.00 to beat West Ham (129% value)
- Fulham (45%) @ 2.88 to beat Tottenham (129% value)
- Liverpool (43%) @ 2.88 to beat Chelsea (124% value)
- Arsenal (43%) @ 2.60 to beat Man United (112% value)
- Portsmouth (69%) @ 1.60 to beat Charlton (110% value)

Note that technically there is also some value indicated on Watford winning away from home - but so far I've found bets on away team underdogs are not paying off - although the draw might be an option.

THE HANDICAPS :
Now - a word of warning - last week the handicap were rubbish as all five picks lost when the top sides decided to sweep the pitch with their opponents.

But with that said - here are suggestions for this week - game by game :
THE MATCH             SHEET  BOOKIE  POSSIBLE BET
Liverpool v Chelsea -0.25 +0.00 Liverpool @ 2.00
Villa v Watford -0.75 -0.75 //
Fulham v Spurs -0.25 +0.00 Fulham @ 2.12
Middlesbro v Bolton -0.25 +0.00 Middlesbro @ 1.88
Newcastle v West Ham -1.00 -0.50 Newcastle @ 2.03
Portsmouth v Charlton -1.25 -1.00 Portsmouth @ 2.09
Reading v Sheff.U -0.50 -0.50 //
Man City v Blackburn -0.25 -0.25 //
Wigan v Everton +0.25 +0.00 Everton @ 2.01
Arsenal v Man Utd -0.25 +0.00 Arsenal @ 1.86

The Newcastle game seems to be as much as 1/2 of a goal out - and therefore is well worth a punt.

Labels: , , ,

StumbleUpon Toolbar Stumble It!

Wednesday, January 17, 2007

FA Cup replay : Young Guns on Show

It's all a bit quiet for Arsenal news today - as the team have a rare midweek off after dealing to Liverpool at Anfield in the 3rd Round.

(had to get that in - sorry Duncan)

But you could still be forgiven for asking the question as to whether Arsenal's young players might steal the headlines tonight ?

Full-back Kerrea Gilbert will return to north London with Cardiff to try and get the better of Tottenham in their FA Cup third round replay on Wednesday.

And Birmingham will include two of their three Arsenal loan players at Newcastle - Fabrice Muamba and Sebastian Larsson - with Nicklas Bendtner ruled out through injury.

The BBC does a good write up on all four players - and before anyone leaps off the deep end about bloody European youngsters - I will point out that two of them are actually English as well ... although it's hard to tell with names these days eh?

( you can see the full item at BBC Sport here )

If young Gilbert could do the business tonight for Cardiff against Spurs then I'm sure he'd be the toast of Gooners everywhere on Thursday morning.

As far as betting goes - both Newcastle and Tottenham look like getting wins in 90 minutes tonight - but the prices are poor so you might want to consider HT/FT double to get better prices - rather than the outright win.

(see Chris's previews on the main site for details)

Good luck with your punts.

Labels: , , ,

StumbleUpon Toolbar Stumble It!

Tuesday, January 16, 2007

Tuesday Night :
FA Cup 3rd Round Replay Night

Tuesday night is replay night - and there are eight games to choose from around England.

We've had interent tipster Chris from Tip-Ex stop in and give us three of his best choices - two likely winners and one outsider - and you can read his choices by following the links off of the English football page on the main site.

I generally agree with all three of his picks but again I have to point out that as will all cup games it's got to be a case of keeping the stakes small.

The Premier League clubs have to be favoured at home of course - but may try to be a little "cute" and field under-strength starting line-ups knowing that by having a strong bench they can still rescue the tie in extra time.

And remember, these replays are taking place because the first match ended all square - so no matter how sure you THINK that you are - don't go overboard ok ?!

Labels: , , ,

StumbleUpon Toolbar Stumble It!

Tuesday, January 09, 2007

Carling Cup - Liverpool v Arsenal

We've got Chris's preview of Liverpool v Arsenal online and it really does look as for Liverpool have got more to play for here.

Liverpool were stung by the 1-3 loss on the weekend - after going about 15 months since losing a domestic competition match at Anfield, and Rafa Benitez seems to have changed his plans to take a relaxed approach to this match.

The Gunners have typically looked on this tournament as a development exercise for new players and/or players returning from injury - and that looks set to continue tonight with a significantly changed team from last Saturday.

Arsenal really don't NEED to progress any further in the Carling Cup - their fixture list looks like it's busy enough with Champions League and FA Cup action - and with a potential two-legged tie with Spurs waiting in the semi-finals that would be two more games that the fans would demand were taken seriously.

So, with Liverpool the natural favourites anyway this additional motivation means that I really do favour Liverpool to exact a small measure of revenge.

I'd recommend taking Liverpool to win in 90 minutes - but instead of accepting the 1.70-1.85 on offer make sure that you get the best odds by checking out the Asian Handicap side at Bet365.

The Internet bookie are offering 1.83 for Liverpool to win - or 1.93 for Liverpool to beat the -1/2 goal handicap - which is exactly the same bet.

Don't ask me why these variances happen - they just do from time to time - so if you ARE betting on Liverpool then do yourself a favour and take the AH -1/2 play at Bet365.

Good luck.

Labels: , , , ,

StumbleUpon Toolbar Stumble It!

Friday, January 05, 2007

FA Cup - 3rd Round - Liverpool vs Arsenal

It's the 3rd round of the FA Cup tomorrow - and I wish that I could somehow recapture the excitment I had as a kid about it all.

But I can't.

I don't know whether it's because I'm a jaded Gooner, after all I've seen Arsenal win the FA Cup 4 times in the last decade, or whether it's the knowledge the the FA Cup is pretty much the consolation prize of English football these days.

But the "magic of the cup" doesn't work like it used to eh?

I've published my preview for the game on the main site and it's not looking too rosy for the Arse as they'll have to do without both Fabregas Cesc and Robin Van Persie who are both suspended for this game.

Adebayor is also out (he should be back for Blackburn in the league next week), while neither Theo Walcott nor William Gallas will make this trip - but they might go on Tuesday for the Carling Cup.

Liverpool look strong at Anfield this season (9-2-0 23:3 in the league) and I don't think that they've lost at home since Benfica beat them their 2-0 last season to knock Liverpool out of the Champions League.

Mind you we do have Thierry Henry back and Gilberto will hold the fort in midfield too - in fact when you look at the Arsenal side making the trip I suspect that 59 or 60 of the other 64 teams still in the competition would happily make a mass player exchange - so we've got a talented (if raw) side.
:-)

So - where there is Henry there is Hope - although I suspect that Gooners will be better off betting on Henry scoring ANYTIME rather than the Arse getting a result.

Hopefully I'm wrong and you can all post "told ya so" comments on Saturday night eh?

Good luck all.

Labels: , , , ,

StumbleUpon Toolbar Stumble It!