Six Nations Rugby Outright Bet - an easy profit

SIX NATIONS RUGBY OUTRIGHT BETTING
France 2.62 at Paddy Power
Ireland 3.50 at Bet365
Wales 6.00
England 6.00
Scotland 21.00

BETTING RECOMMENDATION
Make two outright winning bets on France and Ireland to make a profit.

1) Place 115 units on France at 2.62 at Paddy Power
2) Place 86 units on Ireland at 3.50 at Bet365

That's 201 units placed in total.

On 20th March the final round of games will be played and we should see either France or Ireland claim the title - and you’ll return 301 units for a +100 unit profit.

Not bad for six weeks waiting.
;-)

Stumble It!

All Blacks overrun France 39-12 to win rugby test in Marseille

New Zealand completed their unbeaten tour of Europe with a superb display to thrash France 39-12 in Marseille on Saturday evening.

The All Blacks were finally able to break the test try shackles that they've experienced in the Northern Hemisphere to score five tries to nil.

Sitiveni Sivivatu's fine try gave the All Blacks an early 7-3 lead.

Julien Dupuy edged France 9-7 ahead but Mils Muliania's spectacular try and a Jerome Kaino try ensured the visitors had a 22-12 half-time lead.

Cory Jane scored a solo effort after the break and Conrad Smith also crossed as the visitors confirmed their status as the world's number one-ranked team.

The victory means New Zealand will head back to the southern hemisphere, after a final outing against the Barbarians at Twickenham, with four Test wins out of four in Europe, having beaten Wales 19-12, England 19-6 and Italy 20-6 in the lead-up to the Test against France.

Stumble It!

Tri-Nations rugby teams continue to beat Six Nations opponents

The string of winning results for the Southern Hemisphere Rugby nations continued on Saturday as South Africa, New Zealand and Australia kept their winning runs intact in the November test series.

England 6 South Africa 42
South Africa inflicted a record home defeat on England at Twickenham as they romped to a 42-6 victory on Saturday.

The world champions secured their sixth straight win over England with tries from Danie Rossouw, Ryan Piennar, Adi Jacobs, Jaque Fourie and Bryan Habana.

Pienaar finished with a total of 20 points while all England could muster were two penalties from Danny Cipriani.

The 36-point margin smashed the previous record, which New Zealand set in November 2006 with a 41-20 win.

Wales 9 New Zealand 29
New Zealand overturned a half-time deficit to beat Wales 29-9 at the Millennium Stadium on Saturday.

The hosts had led 9-6 at the interval after Stephen Jones kicked three first-half penalties. The Six Nations champions Wales gave it their all, yet they had no answer once New Zealand stepped up a gear.

The All Blacks dominated after the break with centre Ma'a Nonu and flanker Jerome Kaino scoring tries and fly-half Dan Carter kicking the other points to finish with a personal haul of 19.

France 13 Australia 18
France fly-half David Skrela endured a desperate night with the boot as a below-par Australia earned a smash-and-grab win in Paris to stay undefeated on their European tour.

Toulouse number 10 Skrela was barracked by the Stade de France crowd after missing five penalties that ultimately decided a tight, nervy contest.

Australia's opportunistic finishing was deadly, hooker Stephen Moore and winger Peter Hynes scoring their tries either side of half-time.

Fly-half Matt Giteau kicked two penalties and a conversion as the Wallabies made it three wins out of three in November, following on from victories over Italy and England.

Stumble It!

Rugby : All Blacks Thrash England Again

New Zealand piled on the misery as England's tour to forget ended with a 44-12 comprehensive defeat in Christchurch.

The All Blacks led 20-0 at half-time in Christchurch through tries from Richard Kahui and Dan Carter, who added two penalties and two conversions.

England finally got on the board when Danny Care crossed for a converted try after he took a quick tap penalty.

But Ma'a Nonu, Sione Lauakiadded further converted tries for the All Blacks, with Tom Varndell's score little consolation for England.

New Zealand ended the match on the front foot and although they had tries from Sivivatu and Thomson chalked off for infringements they did add a fifth converted try through replacement scrum-half Cowan on the final hooter.

New Zealand 44-12 England
----------------------------------------------------------------------
New Zealand (20) 44
Tries: Kahui, Carter, Nonu, Lauaki, Cowan
Cons: Carter 4, Donald
Pens: Carter 3

England (0) 12
Tries: Care, Varndell
Cons: Barkley

Stumble It!

WALES SLASHED FOR SIX NATIONS TITLE

Wales have been slashed to 3/1 second favourites to win the Six Nations after they staged a fightback to beat England 26-19 for their first win at Twickenham in 20 years.

Wales scored 20 unanswered points in the space of just 13 second-half minutes - including tries from Lee Byrne and Mike Phillips - as England self-destructed.

England headed into the weekend's first round of games second in the betting at 15/8 but they've now drifted out to 9/2 fourth favourites.

France are not in action against Scotland until Sunday but they've still seen their price cut to 11/8 from 13/8 in the wake of this result. The Scots remain unchanged at 12/1.

Meanwhile Ireland have been trimmed to 7/2 from 4/1 after they made a hesitant start to their campaign with an unconvincing 16-11 victory over Italy.

Girvan Dempsey crossed in the 18th minute to hand Ireland an encouraging start and the kicking of Ronan O'Gara, who finished with 11 points, kept them in command, despite a spirited fightback from the visitors.

Stumble It!

Rugby World Cup : I hate being right ...

A tough weekend for New Zealand as the All Blacks are beaten 20-18 by a fired up France side in the Rugby World Cup quarter-finals.

However - regular readers of the blog will be in profits if you remember the betting tips post before the RWC started :

(2) You believe that New Zealand are vulnerable because nothing is ever 100% sure in sport and as I've demonstrated even the 80% sure All Blacks CAN lose.

Either LAY the All Blacks at Betfair to more than double your money and have all 19 other teams on your side.

Or, if you believe that there are only 4 other contenders, back France, Australia, South Africa and England according to your preferences and you will have at least one team in the final - and be standing to make a very sizable profit indeed - IF the upset happens.

(click here to see the full entry)

So the All Blacks are out despite all their talent - I feel that I was right with the estimate that they only had a 50-50 chance of winning the whole thing.

Prices (and my estimates of win chance) at that stage were :
New Zealand --- 52% chance @ 1.57 (Bet365)
France -------- 14% chance @ 8.00 (BetFred)
Australia ----- 12% chance @ 13.00 (Ladbrokes)
South Africa -- 12% chance @ 7.90 (PinnacleSports)
England ------- 10% chance @ 34.00 (Ladbrokes)

So you can see that you're looking at a very tasty profit now - frankly I have no firm idea of who will win it now - although I suspect that home advantage may sneak it for the French.

Allez Le Bleu !!

The reaction here in New Zealand is one of sadness but not disbelief - and general acknowledgement that FRance played a very good game of rugby to win.

But I'll still spend a sad week or so in mourning for the elimination of our beloved All Black side.

Stumble It!

Rugby World Cup : Weekend Outrights review.

The first weekend of games saw one upset - some impressive rugby from the Southern Hemisphere trio - and an unconvincing English performance. How did the bookies react?

New Zealand Price Cut
The All Blacks have been trimmed to 1.57 at Ladbrokes after their 76-14 win over Italy

Australia Price Cut
The Wallabies are now down from 12.00 to 10.00 at Bet365 after they thumped Japan 91-3.

South Africa Price Cut
The Springboks are now second favourites at 6.00 at Eurobet after a very impressive 59-7 demolition of Samoa.

France Blowout !
Le Bleus now look to be on a collision course with New Zealand in Cardiff in the Quarter/Finals - assuming that they can squeeze past the Irish - and that idea was enough for Bet365 to set their price at 13.00

England Blowout !
England took almost nothing positive from their 28-10 win over the USA and the price on a successful cup defence is now a best priced 41.00 at Canbet

Ireland Stable
And Irish eye were not smiling at the inept display in only beating tiny Namibia by a 31-17 scoreline. They're now 41.00 at Canbet

Wales Drifting
Neither were the Welsh happy with their efforts against Canada. It was a 42-17 win in the end, but Wales were 9-17 down early in the second half. If you still believe in the Boyo's chances of lifting the cup then take 126.00 at Canbet

Argentina Price Cut !
After betting the French side you had to expect some shortening in price for the Pumas and it has happened (a bit) but you can still bet on the Argies at 41.00 at Gamebookers.

The next best side is Scotland at 250/1, Italy at 660/1 and Samoa and Fiji at 1000/1 - but you'd be better off donating your stake to charity - at least then something good would come of it.

Onto the next round of games then ...

Stumble It!

Rugby World Cup Outrights

The Rugby World Cup starts this weekend and there's been a bit of interest in the forum on the outright bets - although people are finding it hard to weigh up the options ..

... so let me make it simple for you.

First up there is New Zealand. Big, strong, powerful athletic - they're obviously favourites - but are they a good bet at 1.50 or so? No.

The All Blacks are probably about 50% likely to win the world cup. Why 50%? Work it out.

They've won 4 of their last 5 games (80%) against Australia.
They've won 4 of their last 5 games (80%) against South Africa.
And they've won their last four in a row against France.

If we allow France a bit of a ranking boost for being the home side - especially if they make the final then it's reasonable to assume that they're also a 20/80 underdog as well.

New Zealand will make mincemeat of their gruop opponents and then will have three games that matter - each of them against sides that they're 80% likely to beat.

So I make the mighty All Blacks at 80% * 80% * 80% = 51.2% likely to win all three games and lift the Rugby World Cup. It's as simple as that.

------

Now the fact that they're priced lower means that you've got two choices - either LAY the All Blacks immediately - or consider backing each of the other likely contenders.

And who are they? Just four other sides in my opinion.

The three other winners of the Rugby World Cup (Australia, South Africa and England) and the host side France.

Sorry to Ireland, Wales and Argentina (and the other 12 participants) - but your chances of winning three knockout games in a row against opposition of that calibre is exactly NIL.

And frankly despite the hype that each of the remaining four sides might have at home - there is little to choose between these four nations. Each of them would be favoured to win a clash if they were hosting the match.

Perhaps I'll give France a little boost, and drop England a tiny bit after their home losses to South Africa and France - but England can still win a match against any of these three - on their day.

So if I said that the remaining 48 percentage points should be spilt as France 14%, South Africa 12%, Australia 12% and England 10% would you really argue too hard with that?

So there we have it.

THE POSSIBLE WINNERS
-------------------------------
New Zealand --- 52% chance @ 1.57 (Bet365)
France -------- 14% chance @ 8.00 (BetFred)
Australia ----- 12% chance @ 13.00 (Ladbrokes)
South Africa -- 12% chance @ 7.90 (PinnacleSports)
England ------- 10% chance @ 34.00 (Ladbrokes)

And for the betting scheme there are two approaches :

(1) You simply believe that New Zealand will win because they are the best side and FINALLY their time has come.

Then don't bet on the outrights - there is not value. Simply enjoy the tournament - and personally I hope you are right.

--

(2) You believe that New Zealand are vulnerable because nothing is ever 100% sure in sport and as I've demonstrated even the 80% sure All Blacks CAN lose.

Either LAY the All Blacks at Betfair to more than double your money and have all 19 other teams on your side.

Or, if you beleive that there are only 4 other contenders, back France, Australia, South Africa and England according to your preferences and you will have at least one team in the final - and be standing to make a very sizable profit indeed - IF the upset happens.

WARNING - the All Blacks ARE deserved favourites - and they are the single most likely side to win the 2007 Rugby World Cup.

Stumble It!

RUGBY : All Blacks 61-10 France : France all at "C"

After the pre-match jousting where the French tourists were annoyed as being described as France "C" by the New Zealand managers and media - they simply showed that the locals knew best.

New Zealand ended the test as a contest before half-time - taking a 30-3 lead into the break and continued on on the second half for a nine try blitz and a final 61-10 score.

Joe Rokocoko's first-half double set New Zealand on their way adding to Byron Kelleher and Anton Oliver's close-range touchdowns before halftime.

Leon MacDonald, Isaia Toeava, Jerry Collins and Nick Evans added to the scoreline after the break, with Julien Laharrague scoring a consolation try.

France who had left as many as 28 quality players at home playing domestic club competitions were no match for the All Blacks in any area.

France tour captain Olivier Magne told Sky Sports: "We're very disappointed to lose by so many points, but it is all preparation for the World Cup and I hope we will be on time for this competition."

But perhaps France would be far better to admit that this was a 3rd choice team (or dare I say it "C" side) and that the tour was little more than a farce and a devaluation of the famous Tri-colour reputation.

Stumble It!