NFL Week #15 Spreadsheet

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NFL Picks for Week 14.

I have built FOUR systems over the last two seasons :
- most likely winners
- best value winners
- extreme value winners
- ATS winners.

But due to the BLOWOUT nature of the NFL - where some scores can get huge when compared to European football - I've found that you have to choose which type of system you are going to chase.

I've gone for value winners, which means that the system is focused around win percentages and who will get over the line, rather than whether they will cover the spread.

So the best system is VALUE which is marked in the HVal and Aval columns where I take the green marked teams to win on the MoneyLine.

This system was +14% last season, and is exactly +14% yield this season too.

It has a 41% hit rate (32 winners and 47 losers this season) but the prices obtained are good enough to yield a profit.

This weeks value picks are ...

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 49% @ 2.57
DALLAS COWBOYS 49% @ 2.37
ST. LOUIS RAMS 19% @ 7.50
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 36% @ 4.50
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 46% @ 3.55
CINCINNATI BENGALS 19% @ 6.75
OAKLAND RAIDERS 29% @ 4.60

Note that all SEVEN teams are away sides, and all seven teams are actually underdogs forecast to lose if "average" circumstances happen.

But as we know in the NFL a turnover or poor home performance can result in a big dog winning we will need 2 or 3 winners to show a profit this week.

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Betting in Spain

A spreadsheet test for Wednesday evening as there are 6 games in Spain where the home side is the favoured result (between 40-50%) but not strong enough to be a likely pick - and they are also priced at over 100% value.

Real Madrid to beat Barcelona @ 2.40 = 134%
Valencia to beat Zaragoza @ 2.10 = 107%
Real Murcia to beat Bilbao @ 3.20 = 141%
Mallorca to beat Osasuna @ 2.20 = 108%
Real Betis to beat Valladolid @ 2.30 = 117%
Santander to beat Sevilla @ 2.65 = 130%

All picks are priced above evens so we will need three home wins in order to make a profit. Note that I'm not saying that they all win - I'm relying on numbers through all SIX games here to make a profit.

Average price calculations suggest around a 22% yield return - by getting best prices. If you settle for lessor odds then you lower the yield.

Will the home sides deliver for us on Wednesday night?

RELATED LINKS :
Gooners Betting Spreadsheet output
And get Live Spanish Football Betting Odds

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Champions League Betting Spreadsheet for Semi-finals

The Betting Spreadsheet is out for the first leg of the UEFA Champions League semi-finals and there are two clear recomendations.

The Tuesday night match between Liverpool and Chelsea at Anfield is tagged as a very likely draw - with the best price of 3.10 (21/10) at Betsson rated at 136% value.

On Wednesday the spreadsheet favours the 2.53 odds (at PinnacleSports) on Barcelona scoring a home victory over Manchester United in the first leg - rating the price at a tasty 170% value.

Good luck with your punts.

RELATED LINKS :
Gooners Numb3rs - UEFA Champions League Spreadsheet
BookieLabrat Odds - Live Betting Odds for UEFA Champions League

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Betting Spreadsheet - Italy numbers up.

The Gooners Numb3rs (tm) spreadsheet for the 10 Serie A games this weekend is up and online with some interesting picks.

There are three "likely picks" for Roma, Fiorentina and Inter Milan this weekend as well as three "discovered value" selections as well.

The "fix" also appears to be in on the Siena v Genoa match - where the best price for the draw is as low as 2.05 (at Bet365) and only a handful of bookmakers currently offering a price on this game.

Good luck with your punting and be careful out there.

RELATED LINKS :
Gooners Numb3rs Spreadsheet for Italy Serie A
Live Betting Odds for Serie A from BookieLabRat.com
Football Match Previews for Serie A at GoonersGuide.com

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Gooners Numb3rs - ISA Midweek Spreadsheet

There is a midweek round of the Italian Serie A and the spreadsheet numb3rs are out now.

See the spreadsheet output now.

There are 4 home winners and 1 away winner predicted.
All of them at 100% or greater value.

I bet those prices don't last long.

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GBL and ISA Betting Spreadsheet

With the FA Cup on in England this weekend it means that there are only two leagues covered by the "Gooners Numb3rs" (tm) betting spreadsheet.

(League stats are not used to predict cup games - sorry)

Gooners ISA Numb3rs - Italian Serie A
Has 3 likely home winners and one likely away winner. There is also one "value draw" pick - after they returned back to profit last weekend.

Gooners GBL Numb3ers - German Bundesliga
The Bundesliga is proving hard to make a profit on this season - it lost money again last weekend - but the sheet reckons that there are three likely home winners to check out this weekend.

Good luck with your bets.

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Betting Spreadsheet - online for weekend

It's pretty quiet this week so I've taken advantage of the time to get the "Gooners Numb3rs" (tm) betting spreadsheet done.

Gooners EPL Numb3rs - English Premier League
Has 4 likely home wins, and one likely away win (Spurs?!)

It also suggests a "value" draw on Saturday - and some value on taking Chelsea to win at Stamford Bridge against Liverpool on Sunday.

Gooners ISA Numb3rs - Italian Serie A
Has 3 likely home winners and one likely away winner.

There are two more value draw picks - although these are on a 0-4 run - so be a little careful with your stake size,

Gooners GBL Numb3ers - German Bundesliga
The Bundesliga is proving hard to make a profit on this season - but the sheet reckons that there are five likely home winners (at reasonable prices too) and a couple of discover value plays too.

Check it out.

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Football betting Prediction spreadsheets

The league betting spreadsheets have been processed and the outputs for the weekend of Jan 12th/13th are now up and online.

GOONERS NUMB3RS - EPL spreadsheet picks
A whole host of likely home winners (6 !!) are tipped in England and one away winner too. Can you pick who that might be (before taking a look) ?

GOONERS NUMB3RS - ISA Spreadsheet picks
It's much tighter in Italy - with one home win at a good price and one away win at a poor price.

The Italian DV-Draw system also has one pick too. It's gone 3-2 over the last five picks and is on a +33% yield over the course of this season - so it's well worth checking out.

There seem to be plenty of picks this weekend worth a shot - good luck with your bets - I hope that the statistical view helps you narrow down some good choices.

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A New Spreadsheet Era Begins - The Database !

Looking for the weekend spreadsheet?

Well after receiving 1,001 questions about :

- How it works ?
- And whether I can get it online earlier ?
- And why are the draws rated as they are ?
- And whether I can get it online earlier ?
- And who are the banker winners this weekend?
- And whether I can get it online earlier ?

I dedcided that the best thing that I can do is to actually migrate the output into an online database - so you can see it when I produce the stuff on Friday morning.

Here's the all important link to the new and improved Gooners Betting Spreadsheet and that output should look pretty familiar.

HOW TO USE IT :
The "ML PK" column stands for MOST LIKELY PICK where a + = home win and a "-" = and away win.

The "DV PK" column stands for DISCOVERED VALUE PICK and this looks for potential good value - and is the basis for the successful draw betting system in Serie A.

IF you click on the "more" link underneath the SHEET STATS column then you'll get an additional page of sheet workings and information on each and every game !!

I think it's pretty useful ... and over the next week or two I'll be adding in additional leagues, more information, and notes so you can see why the sheet makes the predictions it does.

I hope it helps you to more beers !!

WARNING :
Remember though - like all computers the sheet output is just a tool.

It knows absolutely nothing about injuries, tiredness, absenses, fixed games, or sacked managers ... so you will still need to add in a bit of human skill to make your final choices.

If you gamble and you lose - then it's your problem - not mine. I expect each punter to take responsibility for their own actions - and to wager sensibly.

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Italy : Weekend Betting Sheet Dec 2nd

Here is the betting spreadsheet for Sunday 2nd December in Italy.

As you can see (if you clicked the sheet above to get a copy in a seperate browser) there are no huge mismatches this weekend - with all of the game rated within a MARgin of 100 (or 1 goal on average).

But there are still a couple of games that are worth a good close look :

LIKELY WINNER
-----------------------
Parma to beat Empoli @ 2.00 at Bet365

Empoli are just 1-2-5 away from home this season and have lost 3 of their last 4 road games heavily losing 0-3 each time. Of course sandwiched in between those results is that stunning 1-0 win in the San Siro against AC Milan - but that's why they call it gambling right?

VALUE SYSTEM DRAWS
-----------------------
The bookmakers seem to be cottoning onto our system this month - as we've picked out three more games worth a shot - but I notice that 3.00 is about the best price that we can get now - that days of 3.20 to 3.50 are long gone.

DRAW - Torino v Genoa @ 3.00
DRAW - Catania v Palermo @ 3.00
DRAW - Cagliari v Livorno @ 3.00

As you can see all three games have a similar rating pattern with the MARgin within about 30 and none of the sides ranked at 1,000 above.

Our research has shown that generally these teams are happy to accept a draw if it's still level with 80 minutes gone - and so draws are occuring more than 1/3 of the time.

Ok. That's the lot this week - good luck.

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EPL : Betting Spreadsheet for Dec 1/2

Here is the betting spreadsheet for the weeknd games - but it's not really much use to punters - on Saturday at least.

There are NO likely winners according to the ratings on Saturday - although the RES portion of the sheet does favour both Arsenal and Chelsea potentially - but it's not the most reliable indicator.

If you look at the percentages and the value calculations then you'll see that most of the home sides sit within our fair value band (of 85% to 115%) suggesting that if you have special news to back a home side then you'll get a fair bet.

Away from home we can see theat West Ham are rated at 325% of fair value when priced at 13.00 - but then the spreadsheet does not know that Chelsea have not lost at home for two seasons - and so I'd take that with a grain of salt.

Perhaps though I might be tempted into a bet on the Sunderland v Derby DRAW at 3.70, given that both teams will be scrapping hard to avoid dfeat in a game billed as a six-pointer by both managers.

We will end the wekend with three likely home winner picks on the Sunday/Monday games but once again you hardly needed the sheet to tell you that eh? :
- Liverpool to beat Bolton,
- Tottenham to beat Birmingham
- and Manchester Utd to beat Fulham

Sorry I can't be more use this weekend.

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UEFA CL : Betting Sheet review

Time to check out how the UEFA betting spreadsheet went for Matchday #5 of the UEFA Champions League.

Wednesday was pretty successful and this means that the round as a whole was pretty good.

LIKELY WINNERS
---------------------
Success with Inter Milan (1.40), Manchester United (1.58), Chelsea (1.65), Celtic (1.93) and Besiktas (2.75) ... and just one failure with Lazio.

That's 600 units staked for 931 units returned.
A profit of +331 units gives a yield of +55%

VALUE DRAWS
---------------------
Both of Wednesday's draws came in - turning around the double failure on Tuesday and leaving the "value system" well in profit.

That's 400 units staked for 685 units returned.
A profit of +285 units and a tasty +71% yield.

So I think that the sheet helped punters to spot ways to make quid this week - and you'll be able to toast the sheet during a round of free beers down at the pub on Friday night.

Cheers !!

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UEFA CL : Betting Sheet for Nov 28

Yesterday's sheet nailed to two likely winners (just) - but failed with the value draws.

Here is the betting spreadsheet for Wednesday 28th November.

LIKELY WINNERS
---------------------
Celtic to beat Shaktar Donetsk @ 1.93 at PinnacleSports
Lazio to beat Olympiakos @ 1.94 at PinnacleSports
Besiktas to beat Marseille @ 2.75 at Canbet

Chelsea to win in Rosenborg @ 1.65 at Interwetten

VALUE SYSTEM
---------------------
DRAW Valencia v Schalke @ 3.60
DRAW Benfica v AC Milan @ 3.25

Good luck

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UEFA CL : Betting Sheet for Nov 27.

Here is the betting spreadsheet for Tuesday 27th November.

LIKELY WINNERS
---------------------
Manchester United to beat Sporting Lisbon @ 1.58 at Canbet
Inter Milan to beat Fenerbahce @ 1.40 at PinnacleSports

The likely winners are simply based on the MARgin bring greater than 75 points (or 3/4 of a goal). We should ignore the RES rating for Slavia Prague as it's only based on 15 previous games.

VALUE SYSTEM
---------------------
DRAW Seville v Arsenal @ 3.45
DRAW Stuttgart v Rangers @ 3.30

The value system is based on the strength of the AWAY side and also the projected MARgin. In this case both games are very close to even strength.

Good luck with your midweek punts.

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Betting Sheet Reviews

It's time to take a look back at the weekend betting spreadsheets and see how we did in England and Italy.

ENGLAND - LIKELY WINNERS
-----------------------------
Hits at home with Arsenal, Everton and Manchester City, and an away win with Chelsea as well - but Manchester United prevented the clean sweep.

Still a 4-1 record produces a profit, as 100 units staked per bet returns 571 units for a +71 unit profit.

And that's not counting the 5.50 price on the DRAW/ARSENAL HT/FT pick or the fact that I actually went for Bolton on +1.25 AH on the main site. (you do check them out right?)

All-in-all a good weekend in England.

ITALY - LIKELY WINNERS
-----------------------------
After warning about the draws in ITaly we only ran into one this weekend in the Serie A, with winners found for Inter Milan, Juventus, AS Roma and AC Milan as Itlian football sorted itself out.

Fiorentina did draw with Reggina though.

Still - another 4-1 record, and again 100 points on each resulted in a 662 point return for +162 points profit.

ITALY - VALUE DRAWS
-----------------------------
Two draws tipped and one of them came in - paying out at 2.95 meaning that the 2x100 point stakes turned into a 295 point return for a +95 unit profit.

SUMMARY
-----------------------------
There was nothing stunning in the spreadsheet picks - but very, very reliable tips - with all three published systems showing a nice bit of wedge at +328 units. I hope that we helped you into a few "free beers" this weekend - being paid out of betting profits.

Catch ya next week.

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Italian Football : Betting sheet Nov 24/25

Welcome back to the blog - and I've also been able to knock out the Italian sheet in plenty of time for the weekend.

One word of caution about Italian football - it seems that this season is the seaon of the draw in Serie A - as after 117 games this season draws lead all results with a 40-46-31 breakdown.

That means that home wins are running at just 34% (a huge variance on the normal 46% in Italy) and so if you're wondering why your normal home banker accumulators are not working then this might be a mjor reason.

HOME WINNERS (be careful though - read above)
----------------------------------
Inter Milan to beat Atalanta @ 1.31 at PinnacleSports
Juventus to beat Palermo @ 1.66 at Globet

AWAY WINNERS
----------------------------------
AS Roma to win at Genoa @ 2.00 at Bet365
AC Milan to win at Cagliari @ 1.65 at VCBet
Fiorentina to win at Reggina @ 2.15 at PinnacleSports

And if you're following the value DRAW system which has produced good results so far then consider :
- Napoli v Catania DRAW @ 3.48 at PinnacleSports
- Empoli v Torino DRAW @ 2.95 (available generally)

Good luck with your Italian bets this weekend.

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England : Weekend Betting Sheet Nov 24/25

I've got plenty to be getting on with today so just a quick post with the weekend sheet and the likely winners.

HOME WINNERS
---------------------
Arsenal to beat Wigan @ 1.17 at Bet365
Everton to beat Sunderland @ 1.62 at PaddyPower
Manchester City to beat Reading at 1.62 at Paddy Power

AWAY WINNERS
---------------------
Manchester United to win at Bolton @ 1.50 at Interwetten
Chelsea to win at Derby @ 1.30 at Interwetten

Good luck if your punting this weekend.

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NFL : Week #11 Betting Sheet

Comments to follow.

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International Football - the betting sheet

So to recap briefly on how to read this spreadsheet ...

KULHAVY RATING SYSTEM
-----------------------
Worka on a home / away basis using a power ranking system to award performance points based on
- actually winning,
- the size of the win,
- the strength of the opponent
- whether it was an upset or not.

PK = Pick where (+) = home and (-) = away
MAR = Margin of win where 1 pt = 1/100th of a goal.

RES SYSTEM
-----------------------------
Is an attempt to show the results of previous matches where we had teams that were simialrly ranked with a similar margin.

PK = Pick where (+) = home and (-) = away
H/D/A = % of games results
OBS = number of previous matches used for %

NOTE :
In club based spreadsheets I'd want around 100 OBS before really being comfortable with the res system to being accurate to +/- 3%.

With internationals you have some RES predictions that have less than 20 OBS I'd say that the number could easily be +/- 10% of the REAL figure so be careful and don't wager your bank on a game with only a few previous items of data.

(Club leagues literally have 10 seasons x 380 games and as many as 300+ OBS)

DISCOVERED VALUE (DV) SYSTEMS
---------------------------
A backtesting sytem that finds games that "could" be considered a value play as the odds outweigh the risk - and there is a reasonable chance of the result occuring.

These are the bets shown in GREEN BACKGROUND along with the price.

There are six home wins (including Scotland !!) and five draws (including Israel) so I suspect UK punters will be hoping that this works again.

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Italy : Weekend Betting Sheet Nov 10/11

And I've also done the Italian betting sheet as well in time for Saturday afternoon's Serie A games.

The Italian sheet seems to be pretty consistant this weekend - with most of the betting systems coming together to provide a strong direction for punters.

Mind you - please just remember that there were SEVEN draws in the 10 games in last weeks Serie A round and it was only our VaLUE betting draw system that saved us from disaster.

The "likely winners" went 0-4 for a 400 unit loss, but the draw system managed a 3-1 performance for a 510 unit profit !! So as you can see - even with the betting sheet and the number crunching done - it's not a simple path to profits.

Ok - with that warning out of the way - onto the picks :

Likely winners are forecast by BOTH the RES and MAR systems for :
----------------------------------------------------
Sampdoria to beat Empoli
Fiorentina to beat Udinese
Juventus to win at Parma
AS Roma to beat Cagliari

While there are single picks for :
----------------------------------------------------
MAR : +83 Inter Milan to beat Lazio
RES : 54% AC Milan to win at Atlanta

The DISCOVERED VALUE draw system has three likely candidates this weekend.
----------------------------------------------------
Palermo v Napoli @ 3.00
Reggina v Genoa @ 2.90
Torino v Catania @ 3.15

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England : Weekend Betting Sheet Nov 10/12

Here's the betting Sheet for England's Premier League for the weekend of Nov 10th through until Nov 12th.

On Saturday the sheet thinks that :
-------------------------------------
Liverpool will beat Fulham
West Ham have a chance of winning at Derby County

Sunday sees home wins picked on double systems for :
--------------------------------------
Chelsea to beat Everton
Tottenham to beat Wigan Athletic
Manchester United to beat Blackburn Rovers

and also single home win picks for :
---------------------------------------
Portsmouth to beat Manchesater City
Bolton Wanderers to beat Middlesbrough

In terms of "value betting" there is just one pick this week as the Sheet thinks that 7.25 is far too high for Reading who have a 31% chance of upsetting Arsenal at the Madjeski Stadium.

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UEFA CL : Betting Sheet for Nov 7 released.

Here's the betting spreadsheet for Wednesday night.



Remember that the European level there is significantly less data to work with - many sides will only play 6 games at this level in a season and then may miss a season by failing to qualify so it's harder to get quality picks.

Take special care to see the number of previous games being used to produce that pick (the OBS field) and if there is less than 50 games then treat the percentages with healthy scepticism.

Remember that typically 100 points of margin means and average win expectancy of 1 goal. Also remember that an average of 1 goal might mean a 2 goal win in one match and a draw in a second match - averages are tricky things when data is small.

Tonights best picks (dual system picked)
----------------------------------------
Barcelona to beat Rangers @ 1.23 at Betsson
Manchester United to beat Dynamo Kiev @ 1.20 at Interwetten
Sevilla to win at Steaua Bucharest @ 1.75 at Interwetten
Arsenal to win at Slavia Prague @ 1.57 at Ladbrokes

Possible picks (res% system only)
-----------------------------------------
AS Roma to win at Sporting Lisbon @ 2.60 at Interwetten

Inter Milan to beat CSKA Moscow @ 1.30 at Bet365
Fenerbahce to beat PSV Eindhoven @ 2.00 at Bet365

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England : Betting Sheet Review

So how did we go in England ?

we said :

Arsenal v Manchester United
-----------------------------
- 1) This game is hard to pick
- 2) A draw is the most likely result
- 3) Overs 2.5 goals is probably the best bet

See my full match preview for my betting view on the game.

As for the other picks they should not surprise you :
Aston Villa to beat Derby County @ 1.44 at Ladbrokes
Everton to beat Birmingham @ 1.73 at Bet365
Chelsea to win at Wigan @ 1.44 at Ladbrokes

And on Monday night :
Man City to beat Sunderland @ 1.62 at Bet365

I make that pretty good advice - and a perfect weekend.
Enjoy your beers - and catch ya next time.

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NFL : Week #9 Betting Sheet

I've been working like a slave (actually I sat down after a very nice lunch) in order to the the NFL sheet ready for week #9.

We had an ordinary week last week - with only Eddie (the underdog backer) really making any profits to talk about.

Week #9 is dominated by the big game between the Colts and the Pats - but it will be a tough game to make a strong pick on - and there are other easier games to look at.

What does it all mean? Let me spell out the picks for the four systems.

MARVIN (MoneyLine Bankers) :: Season 34-10 +5% yield
------------------------------------------------------
According to our rankings we have five likely winners - although I notice that the public really only agree on the first two choices (Pittburgh and San Diego) so we will see.
H - PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ 1.24
A - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ 1.33
A - DENVER BRONCOS @ 2.32 !
H - ATLANTA FALCONS @ 1.57
H - TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ 1.56

Abe (Against the Spread) :: Season 16-11-2 +15% yield
------------------------------------------------------
Abe had his fierst losing week in a month last weekend - going 1-2 from 3 picks. Has he lost his touch? We don't think so. Five more choices this weekend.
A - DENVER BRONCOS ATS +3
A - JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS ATS +3
A - CAROLINA PANTHERS ATS +4
H - NEW YORK JETS ATS +3.5
H - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS ATS +5

Eddie (underdog ML) :: Season 9-20 +2% yield
------------------------------------------------------
Eddie is a tough system to follow - as he'll lose almost 2/3rds of his bets but the high prices on his dogs tends to make it worth the risk.
H - MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ 3.85
A - JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ 2.70
A - CAROLINA PANTHERS @ 2.94
H - NEW YORK JETS @ 2.83
H - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ 3.15

Vincent (Value ML) :: Season 20-27 +20% yield
------------------------------------------------------
Finally to my favourite system - Vincent's value betting - where he thinks the prices outweigh the risks.
A - SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ 2.05
H - BUFFALO BILLS @ 2.05
H - ATLANTA FALCONS @ 1.57

As you can see all four systems are acutally in slight profit so far this season in the NFL - which is a major suprise to me as I expected Marvin's "most likely" system to fail miserably.

Good luck with your Sunday bets.

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Italy : Weekend Betting Sheet Nov 4

After watching the big game between Arsenal and Manchester United, I've sat down and worked out the betting angles for Sunday's action in Italy's Serie A.



Likely Winners
-----------------------
The sheet has recommendations on four matches likely to finish with pickable winners.

Parma to beat Siena @ 1.91 at Bet365
Cagliari to beat Sampdoria @ 2.35 at Bet365
Roma to win at Empoli @ 1.67 at Bet365
Inter Milan to win at Juventus @ 2.80 at Bet365

Discovered Value Betting
--------------------------
In terms of betting on good potential value we also have a handful of draw options to have a look at.

Analysis of the sheet has found a lucrative little "gap" in the bookie odds in Italy's Serie A league where the away team is rated as a slight favourite - specifically between 0 and -30 MARgin.

This method enables us to hit draws at a 38% rate - and is yielding positive returns (between 5% and 25$) in each of the last six seasons.

Catania v Atlanta @ 3.00
Genoa v Palermo @ 3.00
Livorno v Udinese @ 3.05
Juventus v Inter Milan @ 3.10

And also we see some value on the home win in this game too :
Cagliari to beat Sampdoria @ 2.35 at Bet365

Good luck with your Italian football bets on Sunday.

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England : Weekend Betting Sheet Nov 3/5

A big weekend of football on the card - including Arsenal v Manchester United and Blackburn v Liverpool.



Arsenal v Manchester United
------------------------------------------
Obviously both sides are rated highly with the spreadsheet giving Arsenal having a small 24/100th goal advantage with the game being played at the Emirates.

This advantage of 1/4 of a goal is actually pretty close to the norm - and gives a 45%-27%-28% breakdown over all games - but if you apply the secondary criteria of both teams beeing rated over 1050 then you get an interesting picture.

Just 16 games have been found in my English Premier League database for a 4-9-3 series of results suggesting that the draw is hugely over-priced for this game.

United have been the away side 8 times in those 16 games for a 3W-3D-2L record, and at Arsenal they've gone 1-1-1. Arsenal have been the home side in this situation 6 times, for a 2W-3D-1L record.

In those six home Arsenal "clash of the titans" - 20 goals were scored and the Over 2.5 goals bet won four times out of six.

So what does that all tell us?
- 1) This game is hard to pick
- 2) A draw is the most likely result
- 3) Overs 2.5 goals is probably the best bet

See my full match preview for my betting view on the game.

As for the other picks they should not surprise you :
Aston Villa to beat Derby County @ 1.44 at Ladbrokes
Everton to beat Birmingham @ 1.73 at Bet365
Chelsea to win at Wigan @ 1.44 at Ladbrokes

And on Monday night :
Man City to beat Sunderland @ 1.62 at Bet365

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Italy : Wednesday Betting Sheet Oct 31

We've got a full round of fixtures in Italy on Wednesday night and plenty of picks to consider from the sheet.



LIKELY WINNERS
There are as many as SIX likely winners picked - all of them home wins - and all of the home sides rated as a full goal better than their opponents.

Reggina to beat Livorno @ 1.91 at BetFred
Palermo to beat Parma @ 1.65 at VCBet
Juventus to beat Empoli @ 1.35 at PinnacleSports
Inter_Milan to beat Genoa @ 1.33 at PinnacleSports
Atalanta to beat Cagliari @ 1.93 at PinnacleSports
Fiorentina to beat Napoli @ 1.70 at Bet365

All of these odds are rated in black ink on the sheet meaning that they're fair odds.

(all odds updated as at 9:30am GMT)

VALUE BETTING
There are four draws and two home wins that are indicated as being potential "discovered value" bets on Wednesday night.

Udinese to draw with Torino @ 3.25 at VC Bet
Siena to draw with Catania @ 2.95 at Canbet
Sampdoria to draw with Milan_AC @ 3.20 at Bet365
Roma_AS to draw with Lazio @ 3.45 at PinnacleSports

As well as :
Reggina to beat Livorno @ 1.91 at BetFred
Palermo to beat Parma @ 1.65 at VCBet

It will be interesting to see how the two differing systems fare.

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Italy : Betting Sheet Review

A very interesting Sunday in Serie A - with AC Milan slumping to another home defeat - and it's time to check out the results to see how the sheet went.

What did we get right?
Not as much as we would have liked - but we did call the big game correctly :
Roma to win at Milan @ 3.55
Parma to beat Livorno @ 1.80

What went pear-shapped?
Juve actually lost at Napoli (we had them winning)
Inter could not beat Palermo (drawing 0-0)
Empoli lost at home to Atlanta (we thought they'd win)

Value Betting Draw System.
The value betting system finished all square - with one of the three matches finishing all squre to get our money back.
- Siena v Reggina @ 3.00 - ended 0-0 :-)
- Lazio v Udinese @ 3.00 - Udinese won 1-0
- Torino v Cagliari @ 3.20 - Torino won 2-0

Overall that's 8 bets - and just three winners - but importantly we didn't lose money and did OK on a weekend where upsets hit some other punting systems hard.

800 units staked and 835 units returned for a small +35 unit profit.
I'll try to lock in better returns next week.

Stumble It!

England : Betting Sheet Review

So how did we score on the weekend with the English betting spreadsheet? Did we make some beer money?

What did we get right ?
Manchester United @ 1.22
Chelsea @ 1.55
Reading @ 2.85
Sunderland v Fulham Draw @ 3.35

What did we get wrong?
Portsmouth to beat West Ham
Derby to beat Everton

In my defence, Portsmouth missed a last minute penalty - and as for Derby - yeah OK - perhaps I was blinded a bit by the 3.75 odds.

Still - I think that we're on a winner this weekend as that's a total of six bets at 100 units each which returned 897 units.

That is a +297 unit return or a yield of almost +50%.
I'll chalk that up as a winning week. Enjoy !!

Stumble It!

NFL : Week #8 Betting Sheet

MARVIN (Most Likely)
------------------------------------------------------------
H - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
H - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
H - TENNESSEE TITANS
A - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
H - CHICAGO BEARS

VINCENT (Value)
------------------------------------------------------------
A - GREEN BAY PACKERS
A - NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
H - MINNESOTA VIKINGS
H - CAROLINA PANTHERS
H - ST. LOUIS RAMS

EDDIE (Extreme Underdogs)
------------------------------------------------------------
A - WASHINGTON REDSKINS
A - JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

ABE (ATS)
------------------------------------------------------------
A - WASHINGTON REDSKINS ATS +16
A - JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS ATS +3.5
H - ST. LOUIS RAMS ATS +3

Stumble It!

Italy : Weekend Betting Sheet Oct 27/28

Next we head to Italy, and see if we can do an "Italian Job" on the bookmakers prices in Serie A.



The sheet has quite a few picks this week - and several away picks which is always a tricky thing to bet on in Italy.

LIKELY WINNERS
The sheet is backing three of the the big sides to win on the road in Italy this weekend.

The first two games might not surprise as Juventus to win at Napoli and Inter Milan to win at Palermo will appeal to a lot of punters especially with prices above even money.

But the sheet also likes the look of AS Roma to win at AC Milan as well, although remember that it does not take potential injuries into account so Totti's absence could be vital.

On the home front - probable wins are seleected for Empoli to be Atlanta and Parma to beat Livorno and again the prices are remarkable good.

VALUE BETTING
If you're value betting in Italy that usually means taking draws - and that is exactly what the system selects this weekend with three likely ties :
- Siena v Reggina @ 3.00
- Lazio v Udinese @ 3.00
- Torino v Cagliari @ 3.20

Good luck if you're punting.

Stumble It!

England : Weekend Betting Sheet Oct 27/28

I've sat down down with a strong cup of coffee and gone througth all the odds prices and betting lines, run them through the spreadsheet and got this weekend's output for the English Premier League.



This week there are a couple of high profile games - and I've fine-tuned the prediction profiles so it will mean less observations - and so possibly more inaccuracy - so I'll add a commentary.

So what does it all tell us?

LIKELY WINNERS
Firstly you can see that the only game picked as a likely winner in Manchester United to beat Middlesbro (bet you didn't need the sheet to tell you that one).

But just a word on the 0% win chance for Middlesbro. All that means is that in the 27 similar circumstances of a mid range side (ranked around 915) visiting a top ranked side (ranked at at 1,110) that they've never won. If I'd stuck with the standard system this week then we would have got a 74%-24%-3% breakdown - showing that Boro's chances are above 0% - but not by much.

However, one bet that Boro fans might want to consider is the DRAW at 6.50. in the 27 previous occasions like this in the last 10 season of the English Premier League the underdogs have managed to DRAW on 7 occasions (about a 1 in 4 chance) and so the 6.50 on offer looks the best single value of the day.

Some high profile examples of the shock draw? Man Utd 0-0 Sunderland in April 2006, and Chelsea 2-2 Fulham in December 2006. They do happen.

Other possible winners (accoring to the RES % system) are Chelsea to beat Man City and Portsmouth to beat West Ham - both considered around 60% likely and at fairish value.

VALUE WINNERS?
If you're a fan of taking underdogs at a good price with home advantage -then you could do well to look at the chances of Reading to beat Newcastle and Derby to beat Everton.

Both of the home sides appear to be priced well above fair value at between 140%-150% and are considered between 40% and 50% likely to win - not bankers but significantly better than the public generally thinks.

BORE DRAW?
One game that looks to have a high draw chance is up at the Stadium of Light as Sunderland entertain Fulham on Saturday afternoon.

The two sides are rated very closely together, remember that a MARgin of -6 means that we have them at just 6/100ths of a goal apart, but there is more to it than that.

Both sides are rated quite low at between 900 and 920, and the output shows that in the 37 similar games the finished with 14 HW, 14 D, and 9 AW, which shows a slight advantage to the home side - but also a draw chance of 38%.

That makes the 3.35 available on the draw at Centrebet a good value play.

LIVERPOOL V ARSENAL?
So what about the game at Anfield on Sunday - as the Arsenal travel north to face Liverpool at a venue that has seen them beaten 3 times in a row?

Well I just wouldn'r relay on the sheet data for your bet on this game - with just 5 similar matchups in recent times we've had a results split of 2-1-2 which would appear to make Arsenal a good bet - but 4 results means nothing at all.

Check back onto the main site later on in the weekend - and I'll run up a preview that takes a closer look at this match.

Ok - That's it from me - good luck with your weekend bets.

Stumble It!

UEFA CL : Betting Sheet for Oct 24 released.

Eight more matches in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday night - and quite a few of the games appear to have some good options.

The sheet has several "likely winner" choices on Wednesday.

Most Likely winners (picked by both systems) :
--------------------------------------------------------
AC Milan to beat Shaktar Donetsk @ 1.40 at Interwetten
Real Madrid to beat Olympiakos @ 1.30 @ Bet365 (latest price)
Benfica to beat Celtic @ 2.00 at Interwetten (latest price)

Other Likely winners (picked by one system ) :
--------------------------------------------------------
Chelsea to beat Schalke at 1.55 @ Eurobet
Valencia to win at Rosenborg at 1.67 at Ladbrokes
Liverpool to win at Benfica @ 1.75 at Interwetten

Expectation is 3 or 4 home winners, and 1 or 2 away winnners on these picks.

There are NO discovered winners tonight although draws in both Rosenborg v Valencia and Besiktas v Liverpool might be worth chasing the the draw prices got a little higher.

Stumble It!

UEFA CL : Betting Sheet for Oct 23 released.

We've run the numbers and can now release the betting spreadsheet output for Tuesday Oct 23rd in the3 UEFA Champions League.


(click the image for a full sized sheet)

A quick rundown through the "likely winner" picks for the eight games on Tuesday night - typically we would expect to go 3-1 with predictions in this range :

Most Likely winners (picked by both systems) :
--------------------------------------------------------
Arsenal to beat Slavia Prague at 1.20 at Bet365
PSV Eindhoven to beat Fenerbahce at 1.83 @ Ladbrokes

Most Likely winners (picked by one system ) :
--------------------------------------------------------
Sevilla to beat Steaua Bucharest at 1.25 at Betfred
Barcelona to win at Rangers at 1.70 @ Interwetten

=====

Also - after getting a few requests on the forum (Robbie, College_Football) we will also cover the "discovered value" system picks as well.

These are picks that are not "likely winners" usually - but by keeping a record of similar bets we've found that profits can usually be made by taking a handful of these good value bets each matchday.

Discovered Value Bets :
--------------------------------------------------------
HOME :
PSV Eindhoven to beat Fenerbahce at 1.83 @ Ladbrokes

DRAW :
Stuttgart v Lyon at 3.40 at Bet365
Rangers v Barcelona at 3.75 at Bet365
CSKA Moscow v Inter Milan @ 3.40 @ Ladbrokes

AWAY :
Lyon to beat Stuttgart @ 2.70 @ Betsson

As you can see by the prices we will need 2 or more of these discovered winners to hit in order to make a profit - and you will probably ned to play the Stuttgart v Lyon match by with betting X2 or laying Stuttgart.

Good luck with your punts.

Stumble It!

NFL : Round 7 Betting Sheet Review

So that was round seven done and dusted as we have no selections for the Monday night football game - lets see how it did.

MARVIN (Most Likely Banker Bets) ML
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Correctly forecast that favoured sides, New England Pats, New York Giants, Washington Redskins and Seattle Seahawks would all win.

4-0 for the week, 400 units staked in total and a +84 unit profit.

You don't get rich playing banker bets - and we don't really recommend following Marvin - in fact we're surprised that he's managing to stay in profit.

ABE (ATS betting) ::::
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Abe picked up wins with the Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs and half point losses with both Minnesota and New York Jets.

So 3-2 for the week, 500 points staked and a +73 unit profit.

VINCENT (Value Betting) ML
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Value betting is taking longershot bets where you think a team is under-rated and genrally it means that you'll often be needing the last play of the game to go your way.

It wasn't looking pretty for Vincent early on - but both the Chicago Bears and and the Kansas City Chiefs came good for narrow wins.

Vincent finished 2-2 for the week, 400 points wagered and +152 points profit.

EDDIE (Extreme underdogs) ML
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Our losing system this week was Eddie who finished just 1-4 with only the Buffalo Bills paying out.

The Miami bet was a bust early on, but the Jets and the Viks looked possible until getting into the 4th quarter and then were found wanting.

Just 1-4 this week, 500 points wagered, and a loss of -252 points.
Eddie is now 8-19 for the season and on a negative yield of -1%

We will be back with more next week.

Stumble It!

England : Betting Sheet Round up

Saturday was fairly predictable in the English Premier League with the top 7 sides all winning - most of them comfortably.

We got hit by the only draw on Saturday - as 10-man Fulham were unable to beat bottom placed Derby County ending scoreless but the other three picks all succeeded.

Arsenal, Manchester City and Manchester United all won to take the picks record to 3-1 for the weekend. Overall 400 units were wagered, and 462 units returned for a profit of 62 units (+15%).

It's not going to make you rich this week - but it will buy you a few beers. Enjoy!

Stumble It!

NFL : Round 7 Betting Sheet

It's time to look at the four systems that are running trying to make a profit.

ABE (ATS betting) :::: Season 12-7 +22% yield
--------------------------------------------------------------
A - MINNESOTA VIKINGS ATS +9.5 at -108 @ PinnacleSports
A - NEW YORK JETS ATS +6.5 at -105 @ PinnacleSports
A - KANSAS CITY CHIEFS ATS +2.5 at -110 @ Bookmaker.com
H - BUFFALO BILLS ATS +3.0 at -105 @ Bodog Sportsbook
A - ATLANTA FALCONS ATS +8.5 at -110 @ Bodog Sportsbook

MARVIN (Most Likely Banker Bets) ML :::: Season 26-9 +3% yield
----------------------------------------------------------------------
H - SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at -360 @ PinnacleSports
H - WASHINGTON REDSKINS at -375 @ Bookmaker.com
H - NEW YORK GIANTS at -430 @ PinnacleSports
A - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at -1450 @ PinnacleSports

VINCENT (Value Betting) ML :::: Season 16-22 +22% yield
----------------------------------------------------------------------
A - ST. LOUIS RAMS at +325 at Bet365
A - CHICAGO BEARS at +225 @ PinnacleSports
A - KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at +116 @ PinnacleSports
A - TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS +127 @ PinnacleSports

EDDIE (Extreme underdogs) ML :::: Season 7-15 +10% yield
----------------------------------------------------------------------
A - MINNESOTA VIKINGS - 184% at +390 @ PinnacleSports
A - NEW YORK JETS - 161% at +250 @ PinnacleSports
H - BUFFALO BILLS - 159% at +145 @ Bodog Sportsbook
A - ATLANTA FALCONS - 201% at +340 @ PinnacleSports
H - MIAMI DOLPHINS - 277% at +1100 @ Bookmaker.com

As usual we will need different hit rate to make a profit in each of the different systems this week.

Marvin will need a 100% 4-0 record, while Abe will return positive value if he can manage 3 correct from 5.

Vincent will also need a couple of winners unless the 0-6 Rams can surprise, and Eddie will also need a couple of winners unless the 0-6 Dolphins can spring the shock of the year.

As usual - you make your own final decisions on what you like from the sheet - and good luck with your betting on Sunday.
;-)

Stumble It!

England : Weekend Betting Sheet Oct 20/22

I've completed the odds sourcing and calculations for the English Premier League and can now release the betting sheets for the period October 2th/22nd 2007.

Likely home wins for :
--------------------------
Arsenal to beat Bolton @ 1.25 at Interwetten
Fulham to beat Derby @ 1.75 at Interwetten
Manchester City to beat Birmingham @ 1.57 at Bet365

And a probable away win for :
--------------------------
Manchester United to win at Aston Villa @ 1.80 at Bet365

Good luck.

Stumble It!

Italy : Weekend Betting Sheet Oct 20/21

Here is the betting spreadsheet for the Itaian Serie A for the weekend of October 20th/21st, 2007.

Likely home wins for :
-----------------------
AS Roma to beat Napoli @ 1.40 at Interwetten
Fiorentina to beat Siena @ 1.40 a Interwetten
AC Milan to beat Empoli @ 1.27 at Betsson
Atlanta to beat Torino @ 2.30 at Bet365
Sampdoria to beat Parma @ 1.85 at EuroBet
Juventus to beat Genoa @ 1.42 at Betsson

And a probable away win for :
-----------------------------
Inter Milan to win at Reggina @ 1.50 at Bet365

The discovered value systems indicate that the wins for Roma, Fiorentina and Juventus are worth taking.

Good luck.

Stumble It!

NFL : Week 6 Betting Sheet

It's week #6 of the NFL and the betting sheet is available.



As usual we have the four systems that are trying to make a profit.

ABE (ATS betting)
----------------------------------------
A - CAROLINA PANTHERS ATS +5 at +106 @ PinnacleSports
A - MIAMI DOLPHINS ATS +4.5 at -115 @ Bodog Sportsbook
H - KANSAS CITY CHIEFS ATS +3 at -115 @ Bodog Sportsbook

MARVIN (Most Likely Banker Bets) ML
----------------------------------------
A - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -240 @ PinnacleSports
H - SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -249 @ PinnacleSports
H - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -485 @ PinnacleSports
H - BALTIMORE RAVENS -430 @ PinnacleSports
H - CHICAGO BEARS -219 @ PinnacleSports
H - JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -275 @ PinnacleSports

VINCENT (Value Betting) ML
----------------------------------------
H - DALLAS COWBOYS +220 @ PinnacleSports
A - WASHINGTON REDSKINS +155 @ Bet365
A - ST. LOUIS RAMS +400 @ Bet365
A - MINNESOTA VIKINGS +199 @ PinnacleSports

EDDIE (Extreme underdogs) ML
----------------------------------------
H - ATLANTA FALCONS +181 @ PinnacleSports
A - NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +229 @ PinnacleSports
H - NEW YORK JETS +183 @ PinnacleSports
A - MIAMI DOLPHINS +183 @ PinnacleSports
H - KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +126 @ PinnacleSports

As you can see the low prices for Marvin mean that he'll need to go 5-1 or 6-0 in order to make a profit on the weekends games.

Meanwhile the higher prices for Vincent, Eddie and Abe mean that they'll be in profit if they can pick up two or more winners each.

OH - and notice the dominant bookmaker for prices. IF you're outside the USA then you should be using PinnacleSports for your NFL plays.

Stumble It!

Euro2008 : Betting Sheet released

I've been burning the midnight oil this week in order to get the Euro2008 betting sheet out early - and it has been released onto the forum.

But as a special bonus - well also post it here (just click the graphic for a full sized version). IF you've got any questions or comments then get onto the forum thread and we can talk about it.



HOW TO READ THE SHEET
-----------------------------------
Basically there are two styles of betting - "likely winners" and "value betting".

1) LIKELY WINNERS SYSTEM
-----------------------------------
These are indicated by the + (home win) and - (away win) characters in the to PK columns.

The Kulhavy rating show the estimated strength of the two sides, with the MAR being the predicted margin where 100 points = 1 full goal.

The RES portion shows the previous results of similar rated games - where the OBS column show the total number of previous games.

You will find 8 home wins and 3 away wins predicted as "likely winners" this weekend.

A word of warning - while the likely winners can be profitable - if you can correctly select the right picks - it is difficult to make a long term profit if you are taking bets that are underpriced.

I would not recommend taking bets where the value % number is 85% or below - and these are indicated in red ink on the spreadsheet.

2) DISCOVERED VALUE SYSTEM
-----------------------------------
Regular readers will know that this is my preferred system - as the prices are better - but you have to be warned that these are not banker bets.

So in my opinion it is far better to place smaller stakes on EVERY value bet - and wait for probability to do it's thing - rather than risk it all on one or two choices that may not come in.

The discovered value bets are indicated with a "sickly green" background - showing the odds / the potential value / and the bookmaker.

Discovered value suggests 2 home wins, 6 draws and 3 away wins this weekend as being over-priced at the bookmakers.

Good luck with whatever you're betting on.

Stumble It!

NFL Spreadsheet - a good week for value

Round 4 of the NFL was a good one for "value punters" as there were quite a few upsets where the underdogs bit back.

That meant good news for most followers of the NFL spreadsheet as 3 of the four systems showed a profit.

Abe 2-1 (ATS) -- 300 units staked / +95 units profit.
--------------------------------------------------------
Our ATS system went 2-1 with wins Atlanta and Buffalo - but the St Louis Saints seem a lost cause being thumped 7-35 in Dallas. We are going to have to give them a serious re-rating.

Vincent 2-0 (ML) -- 200 units staked / +430 units profit.
--------------------------------------------------------
Our value system also hit the bullseye, correctly identifying Oakland (+195) and Arizona (+235) as dogs worth backing this weekend.

Eddie 3-0 (ML) -- 300 units staked / +897 units profit.
--------------------------------------------------------
But pride of place this week has to gp to Eddie (our Extreme Value system) who has almost increased his weekly stake four-fold - returning almost $900 bucks profit in his first three plays.

Taking Atlanta (+135) and Cleveland (+202) is almost understandable - after all they were at home and facing teams that were a touch over-rated - but what on earth did he see in Kansas City to back them?!!

The Chiefs smoked San Diego 30-16 and paid out at staggering +560 on the moneyline (6.60 decimal odds) to put the extreme value system into profit for the season.

Marvin 1-3 (ML) -- 400 units staked / -279 units lost.
--------------------------------------------------------
Of course the down side to all this is that the short priced favourties system Marvin had a bad day losing 3 bets out of 4.

Remember that this is a system that we DO NOT THINK CAN WIN. It takes all the short priced "locks" and if it makes a profit then the bookies would be going broke - and that ain't happening anytime soon right?

We post it and track it for interests sake - but we don't bet on the Marvin system - as it's unlikely to make money.

MONDAY NIGHTS GAME
--------------------------------------------------------
That Patriots are in Cincinnati on Monday night - is a game that everyman and his mailman think will be an easy win for New England.

Of course - we know differently - nothing in thr NFL is easy.

Marvin is backing the Pats - while Eddie is taking the Bengals to keep the underdog run going at a very good price of +300 (4.00)

RELATED LINKS :
--------------------------------------------------------
Live Odds collected from five top sportsbooks (2 take US players too)
NFL Football Preview Page (read GoldFingers preview)

Stumble It!

English Football : Betting Spreadsheet Sep 29-30

The English Premier League betting spreadsheet has been published onto the forum.

Link : The Sheet -> Premier League 29/30 Sept

You can see the sheet output there - and ask any questions that you have - as well as see what other punters have to say. I find this easier to manage than blgo comments (and it removes all the SPAM too)

Likely winners system :

HOME
------------
Chelsea to beat Fulham @ 1.33 at Ladbrokes
Everton to beat Middlesbro @ 1.85 at Eurobet

AWAY
------------
Blackburn to win at Sunderland @ 2.65 at PinnacleSports
Liverpool to win at Wigan @ 1.65 at Eurobet
Man United to win at Birmingham @ 1.90 at Interwetten

And of course the hugely popular "Gooners Guide to Gambling Discovered Value (GGTG DV)" systems ...

GGTG DV-DRAW
-----------
Birmingham v Man United @ 4.32 at PinnacleSports
Tottenham v Aston Villa @ 3.49 at PinnacleSports

GGTG DV-AWAY
-----------
Aston Villa to win at Tottenham @ 4.33 at Bet365

Good luck with your bets.

Stumble It!

Italian Football : Betting Spreadsheet Sep 29-30

We've got the Italian football betting spreadsheet online for the weekend now - with the popular Gooners Guide "discovered value" systems all posted on the forum.

Link : The Sheet -> Serie A - 29/30 Sept

The DV-DRAW system has been going great guns so far this season in Italy - correctly identifying 15 draws from 24 attempts and returning a yield of over 90% so far.

Of course it cannot continue to run this week - bookmakers would go broke if that happened - but it's been a great ride - and the system has thrown up 5 more draw picks for this weekend.

We've had several queries about how we do the picks - and although I'm not going to divulge the complete secret - I will let you see this picture of the backroom staff prepraring the sheets ...
:-)

Good luck with your bets this weekend.

RELATED LINKS :
Gooners Guide : Italian football Betting Previews
BookieLabRat : Live Italian Football Betting Odds
Livescore : Live football scores from around Europe

Stumble It!

NFL : Week Four Spreadsheet

Week Four of the NFL is upon us - and the Gooners Guide to Gambling (GGTG) special NFL Spreadsheet is up and online in the forum.

Link : The betting Spreadsheet Output for NFL Week Four

The four betting systems - Marvin, Vincent, Abe and Eddie are starting to settle down now as they get more data and the selections are beginning to make some sort of sense.

Marvin (most likely) * = best
------------------------------
A - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS *
H - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS *
H - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS *
A - PITTSBURGH STEELERS *
A - CHICAGO BEARS

Vincent (value) * = best
------------------------------
H - ARIZONA CARDINALS
A - OAKLAND RAIDERS *

Abe (ATS) * = best
------------------------------
A - ST. LOUIS RAMS ATS +13
H - BUFFALO BILLS ATS +3.5
H - ATLANTA FALCONS ATS +3 *

Eddie (extreme Value Looney) * = best
------------------------------
H - CINCINNATI BENGALS - 158%
A - KANSAS CITY CHIEFS - 149%
H - CLEVELAND BROWNS - 143%
H - ATLANTA FALCONS - 154% *

Last week Marvin and Vincent made profits, Abe broke even, and Eddie was left to rant about teams missing last second field goals ...

RELATED LINKS :
Gooners Guide -> NFL Betting Previews
Gooners Guide -> NFL Betting Lines
NFL.Com -> Scores for Week #4

Stumble It!

Italian midweek spreadsheet up

There is a round of midweek action in Serie A - and now that we've got the site back up and running we've been able to post our home work.

We've done all the calculations and premutations for the midweek games in Italy and posted the spreadsheet with a few betting notes into the forum

The Sheet -> Italian midweek

Four "likely winners" :
-----------------------------
Inter Milan @ 1.40
Napoli @ 1.86
Juventus @ 1.28
and AC Milan (away) @ 2.33

The discovered value system suggests three bets (two repeats of above).
-----------------------------
DV-Home ::: Inter Milan @ 1.40
DV-Draw ::: Lazio v Cagliari @ 3.30
DV-Away ::: AC Milan @ 2.33

Good luck.

Stumble It!

Gooners NFL Spreadsheet review.

OK ... we've been running the NFL prediction spreadsheet for 3 weeks of the 2007 season and it's time to look at some results.

WE run 4 prediction systems over the spreadsheet, running from sports priced winners, to betting ATS, to value betting, and underdog plays. We've provided nicknames for each system to make it easier to follow.

Interestingly - after 3 weeks the systems are ranking almost exactly as I expected them to be - unfortunately none of them are making profits at all.

Although it's close ... so let's take a look.

#1 VINCENT (Value) 34 punts 12-21 (1 to play) -0.21% yield
------------------------------------------------------------
Vincent is a value betting system. It will back a team if they're considered to be at odds that are better than they should be - given their chances of winning.

IF the Titans win tomorrow then Vincent will make a profit for the second straight week after a rubbish 2-8 start in week #1.

This system has virtually broken even in the first three weeks - and the ratings should get better as the effects of new players are now factoring in. I have hope for Vincent paying off.

#2 ABE (Value) 27 punts 12-12 +2 pushes (1 to play) -1.70% yield
------------------------------------------------------------
ABE is our system for betting Against The Spread - and it's started OK - holding it's own with 12 wins, 12 losses and 2 pushes. It's also on the Titans +4 tomorrow.

Again - the system has virtually broken even - down just under 2% and should get better as we progress through the season to the playoffs.

#3 MARVIN (Most likely) 21 punts 14-7 -8.90% yield
------------------------------------------------------------
Marvin is your "banker bet" system - simply picking the most likely winners on moneyline (ML) without caring what the price is. He went 5-1 this weekend and made a small profit of +11%.

Overall though this system is about 9% down - which almost exactly matches the over-round at the bookies - and is where I expected it to be.

It's hard to make money regularly by betting on the obvious favourites - and I'll be amazed if this makes a profit as the bookmakers would go broke if they were that easy to beat.

#4 EDDIE (Extreme Value) 19 punts 4-15 -49.42% yield
------------------------------------------------------------
Ah ... Eddie Eddie Eddie.

This system only wants extreme value - which usually means big underdogs - and unfortunately this systems method seems only to be proving that extreme value is not there in the betting market to be found.

Basically if you're getting a great price - it's because there are other things going on that the sheet does not know about - and you're far better off ignoring these picks altogether.

It did get the Giants to beat the Redskins this week (@ 2.76) but went 1-3.

I will say that the amount of loss suprises me - but perhaps Eddie has also been a bit unlucky too - as he had Cleveland @ 2.55 but they missed a 40yd FG on the last play.

----

OK - so there we have it - four statistical systems for betting on the NFL - none of them beating the bookies yet (it's tough to do) - but the top two are going close enough for some hope at just 1% and 2% losses - especially as we get into the middle of the season with more data.

And the interesting difference between Vincent (value) and Eddie (Extreme Value) which highlights the same sort of "efficient betting market" arguements that power my discovered value systems for European football.

Interesting? Well it is to me ...
I'm already hanging out for the odds lines and next weeks games ...

Check out the Forum on Friday for the new sheet.

Stumble It!

UEFA Champions League Spreadsheet

The patented "GoonersGuide Betting Spreadsheet" (TM) for Tuesday night's games in the UEFA Champions League has been released to the betting forum.

It covers all 8 games - and make recommendations on four likely home wins.

I've also covered the new "discovered value" systems as well - which pciks out one of those home wins as good value - and also targets a value draw bet as well.

You can get it all at the forum link below :
The Sheet -> UEFA CL - Round 1

RELATED LINKS :
Champions League Betting Previews
Latest Champions League Betting Odds

Stumble It!

Weekend Euro Football Spreadsheets up

Just a quick note to check out the forum and find the latest spreadsheets for England, Germany and Italy.

The Sheet --> German Bundesliga 14/15/16 Sept Thread

The Sheet -> Italy Serie A - 15/16 Sep Thread
(with additional picks from BiancoNero)

The Sheet --> English Premier League 15/16/17 Sep Thread

Hope it helps you to think clearly about the games !
;-)

Stumble It!

International Football - Value punters haven?

Just a quick round-up of the last five days of European football betting - which of course has been all about the Euro2008 qualifiers.

Regular readers will know that I release a spreadsheet onto the forum with statistical picks and predictions - and you'll also know that despite this it's very hard to find a big edge.

Last Saturday we analysed the spreadsheet results and found that (as expected) there was little profit to be made in picking "bankers" but what we did find was a very tasty +35% yield if you followed the spreadsheet in betting on "value" teams between 100%-150%.

So when I released the Midweek International Spreadsheet on the forum we talked about the potential value in the thread

However even I was surprised with the results as the "likely winners" did pretty well HOME 9-2 / AWAY 2-1) but barely broke even - while the value bets went 10-9 for a very tasty +45% yield on turnover.

Put that another way - if you put $100 on each of the 19 value bets then you came out with a $866 profit !! That's VALUE BETTING !! And it doesn't include either Scotland or Moldova who we didn't think we value.

My quick thoughts as to why international betting might be slightly easier to find value bets could be as simple as punter patriotism. People will tend to bet with their own country thus pushing some prices way out ... and the bookmakers do not care - they will set prices with GOOD VALUE as long as they get a balanced book.

This means that there could be very good value indeed for the dispassionate value hunting punter - we will look out for it with the release of future international sheets.

(Note : Don't go blindly betting on the same system for domestic club games - it's not as simple to find value - the bookmakers and punters are far sharper in club football )

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European Football Sheets online 1/2 Sep

It's been a busy week - but I've finally got all three of my European football prediction spreadsheets up and posted onto the forum.

Direct Links :
The Sheet --> German Bundesliga 1/2 Sep
The Sheet --> Italian Serie A 1/2 Sep
The Sheet --> English Premier League 1/2 Sep

In each of the forum threads I've also tried to outline the "most likely" winners for the weekend - and also the "discovered value' picks that are indicated using a secondary checking method that I am using.

please remember that nothing is certain in football betting - and if you do decide to bet then you acknowledge the personal decisions and risks that you are taking.

(What I'm saying here is don't come whining to me on Monday if these don't happen to win - I've tried as hard as I can to input all the accurate data - but sometimes things just don't go our way!!)

Also remember that this wekend we are trying to raise money for the Greek Wildfire Tragedy and are asking for winning punters to simply donate 5% or 10% of any profits that they make from the spreadsheet picks this weekend to this worthwhile cause.

If there is any Karma then you can be positive in knowing that this decision will bring you good luck - and hopefully great returns.

Good luck everyone - catch you next week - or feel free to post any and all questions on the forum.

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Weekend Football Speadsheets Online

The latest prediction spreadsheets for England, Germany and Italy are online in the Best of the Bets Forum.

Check out the forum for the threads where the sheets are posted along with some pointers on the best betting options and a couple of betting systems.

Direct links :
- The Sheet -> Italy - 25/26 August
- The Sheet-> England 25/26 August
- The Sheet -> German Bundesliga 24/26 August

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Aussie Rules : Sheet for Round 10

Here's the spreadsheet for round 10 - and regular readers will know that the spreadsheet has two components to each pick - a raw SONAS (or rating) calculation and then a comparision against previous matches.

This week we have 6 of the 8 games are favoured as win picks :
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- Home wins for Port Adelaide, Sydney, West Coast are all picked by both sides of the sheet.

- Adelaide are picked to beat Melbourne despite the inter-state trip.

- Wins also for "Neutral" games with St Kilda winning an upset, and the Western Bulldogs beating Carlton.

Line (Handicap) bets are considered worth playing on :
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- Fremantle +14 (sheet says they lose by only 3)
- Port Adelaide -7 (sheet says they win by 24)
- St Kilda +24 (sheet thinks that they MIGHT win outright)

Remember though - the sheet is still a work in progress and has a few issues to work though - specifically it knows nothing about injuries, returns, or suspended players.

Also the sheet has three ratings (home, neutral, away) for each side ... so if a side had a great AWAY win (eg Geelong) then it does not help their "Neutral" rating much.

Ok so there are the picks - let's see how it goes this weekend.
Good luck to all punters.

(You can find our weekly match previews on our Aussie Rules match previews page on the main site)

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