The Tips Sheet - England 31st March

Betting Tips Sheet - England 31st March

(Click the image for a full size image)

Hey - thanks for checking out the blog - I've been able to produce the betting sheet for the Premier League for the weekend of 31st March / 1st April.

The sheet throws up three likely home winners this week, as well as one travelling side :
- BOLTON (67%) to beat Sheffield Utd
- MAN UNITED (78%) to beat Blackburn Rovers
- TOTTENHAM (59%) to beat Reading
- CHELSEA (63%) to win at Watford

There's also some additional potential VALUE BETS to consider :
- FULHAM (51%) @ 2.30 to beat Portsmouth (116% value)
- WIGAN (36%) @ 3.60 to win at Charlton (129% value)
- EVERTON (34%) @ 3.25 to win at Villa (11% value)

Note that we ignore the possible indicator of value for Watford as their win chances are just 19% suggesting that they might need 5 attempts before finally beating Chelsea.

There's nothing to really recommend in the lunchtime kickoff match on Saturday, Liverpool are fairly priced - Arsenal are poor value (yet again) so perhaps you could consider a LAY of the Gunners there.

Ok. That's the lot for this post. If you want anything more you'll have to get onto the forum and ask !!
;-)

Cheers,

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The Sheet - Italian Serie A - Feb 28th

Here is the sheet for Wednesday night's games :


Click the image to see the full sheet

There is not too much to say about the four "likely picks" indicated on the sheet with the (+) home wins and (-) away wins as they're all fair solidly backed up by league standings and current form.

LIKELY RESULTS
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Inter Milan (77%) to beat Udinese @ 1.33
Lazio (66%) to beat Catania @ 1.53
Empoli (64%) to beat Messina @ 1.73
AS Roma (55%) to win at Chievo @ 2.10 (Asian Handicap)

Interestingly - all of these games are best priced at Bet365 and because each bet is considered to be a fair value (100%) or better it's one of those rare cases where a set of doubles or treble bets are worth a shot.

VALUE PICKS :
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And here are a few bets that have good enough odds to be considered value - but they are less likely to win on an individual basis.

Cagliari (31%) to win at Torino @ 4.20 (129% value)
The bet here is really betting against Torino who have lost 6 in a row and just sacked their manager.

Cagliari are just 1-5-5 on the road though ... so perhaps taking them at +1/4 ball on the AH (price is 2.03) is a better play.

AC Milan (48%) to win at Palermo @ 2.70 (131% value)
That's right - AC milan have become so poor that they're no longer an automatic "likely" pick and are actually at value at Betsson.

Milan might have squeaked home 1-0 on the weekend - but they're 7-3-0 in their last 10 SErie A games ... so it's a good price against Palermo who are 5th but haven't won in their last three games.

Ascoli (46%) to beat Parma @ 2.88 (133% value)
A real relegation scrap as Ascoli (20th on 14 points) face Parma (19th on 16 points).

Ascoli have picked up a pair of draws in thier last two games - but will be without several players for this game after picking up some suspensions on the weekend.

Parma drew 3-3 at Udinese on the weekend for their first point in four games, and they're 0-5-8 on the road.

sUMMARY
====================
So there's seven bets for you to consider on Wednesday night in Italy - you should not expect them all to win as the sheet can only forecast mathematically - but I'm looking for 5-6 winners from that set

... so it's just a question of spotting and avoiding the upset result - or staking correctly so that you make a profit anyway.

Good luck with your punts.

Stumble It!

The Sheet - Italian Football - Jan 27th/28th

(Click image to see the full sheet)

With the English Premier League taking a week - and the FA Cup always a bit unpredictable - we have to turn our attention to Italy to find quality league action.

Fortunately the sheet has responded with quite a few picks.

Most likely wins :
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The sheet has come up with six games where the home team is considered to be the most likely result - and here is a list of the sides who are at 55% or better :
- AS Roma (58%) to beat Siena at Bet365
- Cagliari (55%) to beat Reggina at EuroBet
- AC Milan (85%) to beat Parma at Bet365
- Fiorentina (86%) to beat Livorno at Interwetten
- Atalanta (60%) to beat Catania at PaddyPower
- Chievo (56%) to beat Empoli at EuroBet

Value punting :
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However, I'm a big fan of looking for value when taking a punt - and so I'll only have a shot on those home teams where they've got green ink in the value column - meaning that the odds being paid are better than the risk that I'm taking.

I see four home sides that are worth a shot :
- Sampdoria 22% @ 6.00 to beat Inter Milan (132% value)
- Cagliari 55% @ 2.15 to beat Reggina (117% value)
- Fiorentina 86% @ 1.55 to beat Livorno (133% value)
- Chievo 56% @ 2.40 to beat Empoli (135% value)

Staking suggestion for value bets (using a Kelly Criteria variant) :
- Fiorentina 200 units
- Cagliari & Chievo 100 units each
- Sampdoria 25 units.

Handicap options :
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For punters that prefer taking thea asian handicap style of betting - the sheet also has four selections - although the calculations are not shown - so I'll list them out here.

Saturday :
Take Udinese +0.25 @ 1.86 to beat Torino

Sunday :
Take Chievo -0.25 @ 1.93 to beat Empoli
Take Fiorentina -1.00 @ 2.05 to beat Livorno
Take Cagliari -0.25 @ 1.93 to beat Reggina

(all handicap odds from PinnacleSports)

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The Spreadsheet : England Premier League Picks

( Click the image to see the full sized sheet )

THE PICKS :
You can see that the sheet is basically betting against the teams with woeful away records this week.

There are three likely winning recommendations :
- Portsmouth to beat Charlton @ 1.60 at Interwetten
- Newcastle to beat West Ham @ 2.00 at PaddyPower
- Aston Villa to beat Watford @ 1.65 at Globet

THE VALUE :
There is plenty of green ink on the sheet as well this weekend - with six home bets looking like they're worth a play :
- Middlesbro (52%) @ 2.55 to beat Bolton (134% value)
- Newcastle (65%) @ 2.00 to beat West Ham (129% value)
- Fulham (45%) @ 2.88 to beat Tottenham (129% value)
- Liverpool (43%) @ 2.88 to beat Chelsea (124% value)
- Arsenal (43%) @ 2.60 to beat Man United (112% value)
- Portsmouth (69%) @ 1.60 to beat Charlton (110% value)

Note that technically there is also some value indicated on Watford winning away from home - but so far I've found bets on away team underdogs are not paying off - although the draw might be an option.

THE HANDICAPS :
Now - a word of warning - last week the handicap were rubbish as all five picks lost when the top sides decided to sweep the pitch with their opponents.

But with that said - here are suggestions for this week - game by game :

THE MATCH             SHEET  BOOKIE  POSSIBLE BET
Liverpool v Chelsea   -0.25   +0.00   Liverpool @ 2.00
Villa v Watford       -0.75   -0.75   //
Fulham v Spurs        -0.25   +0.00   Fulham @ 2.12
Middlesbro v Bolton   -0.25   +0.00   Middlesbro @ 1.88
Newcastle v West Ham  -1.00   -0.50   Newcastle @ 2.03
Portsmouth v Charlton -1.25   -1.00   Portsmouth @ 2.09
Reading v Sheff.U     -0.50   -0.50   //
Man City v Blackburn  -0.25   -0.25   //
Wigan v Everton       +0.25   +0.00   Everton @ 2.01
Arsenal v Man Utd     -0.25   +0.00   Arsenal @ 1.86

The Newcastle game seems to be as much as 1/2 of a goal out - and therefore is well worth a punt.

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The Sheet - English Football - Jan 2nd

There are two games on Tuesday - and the sheet calculates that mathematically both of the favourites are likely to win and are also at better than fair value.

Arsenal v Charlton
Arsenal are considered 89% likely to win this game by the sheet - that might be a little overdone as Arsenal have a significant injury problems - and that could also explain the price of 1.30.

But still Arsenal do have the weapons to win this game and are obvious favourites.

PICK : ARSENAL (89%) at 1.30 at PremierBet

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Aston Villa v Chelsea
Chelsea might be conceding a few goals - they have let in two goals in each of the last four games - but they are scoring plenty too - and with 10 goals scored that's impressive attacking.

In comparision Aston Villa have lost four games in a row - and if you think that Chelsea are wobbling then Villa are in freefall.

PICK : CHELSEA (69%) at 1.60 at Interwetten

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OK - let's see if we can pick up a pair of wins on Tuesday eh?

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The Sheet - English Football - Jan 1st

(Click the sheet for fullsize version thats readable)

8 Games being played on Monday.

Here's how the sheet reads it.

SYSTEM PICKS
There are three games picked as likely winners :
- Liverpool (60%) to beat Bolton @ 1.65 at Betsson
- Fulham (66%) to beat Watford @ 1.70 at Interwetten
- Man Utd (53%) to win at Newcastle @ 1.62 at Bet365

Taking all three should see two winners and a small profit - although you'd have to be very convincing to get me to take ManYoo at a price of just 1.62 to win at St James's Park.

It's also to be noted that ManYoo is only picked by one half of the spreadsheet (the RES) and that could be considered a warning - reflected in the lower %

VALUE BETS
This method means ignoring the likely winner and simply betting on home sides where the potential payout is significantly better than the risk - basically where the value 110%+ and marked in green.

This method had success last Saturday gettting Sheffield Utd and Everton - while missing on Spurs - for a very tasty 300% yield !!

So we have :
- Newcastle (25%) to beat ManYoo @ 6.50 at Bet365
- Man City (50%) to beat Everton @ 2.40 at PaddyPower
- Portsmouth (49%) to beat Spurs @ 2.40 at Bet365
- Fulham (66%) to beat Watford @ 1.70 at Interwetten

Of course they won't all win but two from four will show a profit (just one winner is needed if it's Newcastle).

Over the last two months the VALUE side has been paying big dividends - but it does tend to go in streaks ...

GL with whatever you're taking.

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Saturday Crackers

With 83 units in the bank, I think that we will probably try 5-6 bets, making it a standard bet of 15 units per play.

The first one is to take Man City to beat Newcastle in the lunchtime kickoff - I make it slightly over 50% - so a price of 2.20+ is worth a shot.

Take Man City for 15 units @ 2.25 at Betsson Sportsbook
(not the lower exchange price)

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Another game where i think that the home side is over priced is at the Riverside where Middlesbro take on West Ham.

I know that West Ham have won two on the trot - but both were at home - and the Hammers are typically poor when playing away.

Boro are not world beaters but they've beaten both Everton and Newcastle here recently - and again I was expecting prices at about evens.

The 2.34 price at Mansion Exchange is too tempting especially as it's commission free.
Take Middlesbro for 15 units @ 2.34 at Mansion Exchange

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Let's also take a wee trip to Tuscany and back Fiorentina to beat Atalanta on Saturday evening.

Both teams are in the top 7, so it'll be a good clash but I think that the home side have the ability to win this match.

They're 3-0-2 at home, with wins of Reggina, Catania and Parma ... and before losing 1-3 against Roma last weekend they'd won 5 games in a row.

Take Fiorentina for 15 units @ 1.69 at Mansion Exchange

That's three bets for Saturday now ... with more to follow

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