WORLD CUP BETTING PICK - ENGLAND V PORTUGAL

World Cup

2006-07-01 - England vs Portugal

A Sports Betting Pick by Wildcard

World Cup 2006, Quarter Final 3:

England v Portugal, Saturday 01 July
Gelsenkirchen, 17:00 CET

It's Scolari vs. Eriksson Part III and will it be third time lucky for Sven? Scolari has been the man who has ended England's chances in the last two tournaments as England had favourable positions but were unable to keep them. This time they start as favourites but is that really the case? All this against the man who his employers wanted to replace him. Eriksson's tactics in this competition have looked dubious with poor performances yet in the last round Scolari arguably pulled off the best coaching tactics the tournament has seen - enabling his players to win a match so many would have lost.

ENGLAND

Eriksson's England are at the stage most expected but only the coach seems confident that the team can play better. He also contradicts himself by saying it doesn't matter if the team plays badly as long as they win. So which is it then? In previous games of this stature (Brazil in 2002 & Portugal in 2004) - England have done precisely that played badly for most of the 90 minutes except in those games they inexplicably took early leads. It didn't help them as they still lost the ties eventually so it's clear a good performance is needed as England can hardly ever produce a winning one against very good opposition.

So where is the strength with this team? People will say the individual talent of the players - Wayne Rooney nearing 100%. But as he showed against Ecuador no matter how good his game; controlling long-balls and going round a defender but having nothing in support is not going to produce a goal. The defence perhaps? John Terry is a great defender and one who thwarts many and we even saw a brilliant recovery tackle from Ashley Cole to prevent a certain goal. But all those are negated by a team which doesn't keep possession and even a goalkeeper who I don't think is installing confidence in a defence. Paul Robinson has looked very shaky and is definitely a weakness.

It's likely to be a 4-5-1 for England again which is a rather unusual formation for any "strong" team left in the competition. This is an accurate assessment and it's not just the English being rather inflexible in their tactical descriptions. Expect Gary Neville to return at right-back with Owen Hargreaves taking the place of Michael Carrick to provide a more defensive approach in that role.

Eriksson has very little options on the bench if things are going wrong. Throwing Peter Crouch on upfront means taking off a midfielder somewhere but that only encourages the long-ball game which England have been criticised for over-using. Aaron Lennon excites many but we've seen nothing of him in this tournament. I don't see him in a QF of the World Cup affecting the play too much and end-product is a huge problem. Dare I even mention Theo Walcott?

Probable team(4-5-1): Robinson; Neville, Ferdinand, Terry, A Cole; Beckham, Gerrard, Hargreaves, Lampard, J Cole; Rooney.

PORTUGAL

When talking about Portugal first you have to mention the coach Luis Felipe Scolari. Easily the best coach at the last World Cup and gaining seven straight wins as Brazil took the trophy with considerable ease which was mightily impressive. Add to that another four victories with Portugal (a team who had not made it into the second round for 40 years) beating Mexico comfortably and then the Netherlands who appeared as favourites. This stood to be the English FA's next manager as Scolari disclosed in an interview for English TV revealing he wanted the job but not for it to be announced before the end of the World Cup as his job could be seen to be compromised. As a result it is more than likely he will remain as Portugal coach until Euro 2008 and I'd fancy them to complete what they came close to four years ago on home soil.

Onto the team what Scolari has created is a younger team with much of the 'Golden Generation' now gone although Figo back but without the presence he once held. An organised 4-3-3 system where he maximises the ability of his players which sounds simple but so many other coaches - Eriksson included at this World Cup can't do. From that infrastructure the technical players of the Portugal team are given the basis to show what makes them one of the strongest International sides with the likes of Deco, Simao, Figo and Ronaldo.

But after all the confident talk comes the after-effects of the Holland victory which came at a price. Gone is influential playmaker Deco from the midfield after a sympathetic red card decision along with defensive midfielder Costinha. Ronaldo is struggling with injury after a challenge which could have merited a red card on its own. Ricardo, Valente, Maniche, Petit and Figo all carry yellow cards which put them potentially a bad moment away from a game against Brazil. The positive news is that this could mean a starting place for either or both Tiago and Simao. Simao in particular could cause the English defence problems as he's arguably more dangerous than Figo and the problems he caused Man Utd and Liverpool in the Champions League will not have ignored by Scolari.

Probable team(4-3-3): Ricardo; Miguel, Meira, Carvalho, Valente; Petit, Maniche, Tiago(Simao); Figo, Pauleta, Ronaldo.

THE VERDICT

Look at the percentages and you can see I disagree with the bookmakers who make England favourites to progress. At the end the technical qualities of individual Portuguese players and the tactical backbone they are given by their coach are too great to ignore as is the previous pattern of Scolari 2-0 Eriksson.

Expect a tight match as most at this stage and England will probably manage to score - perhaps even first as they always do but I don't expect to see a winning performance from them. Penalties? I'd still have to give Portugal the edge there too.

THE PICK :

ENGLAND 1-2 PORTUGAL
(or 1-1 and Portugal to win AET or Penalties)

BEST BETTING TIP :

Take a look at the price of Portugal to qualify for the semi-finals as I disagree with England being favoured here:

- PORTUGAL TO QUALIFY @ 2.49 (PINNACLE SPORTS)