WORLD CUP BETTING PICK - BRAZIL V FRANCE

World Cup

2006-07-01 - Brazil vs France

A Sports Betting Pick by BlunderCity

For the last quarter final, Frankfurt will host a clash between the two previous winners of the competition and this promises to be a most exciting match. This will bring memories of 1998 where France came out on top with an improbable 3-0 scoreline.

If you ask any football fan which team is the best in the world chances are 90% will tell you Brazil (the other 10% thought they were watching tennis). They arguably play the most attacking style of football imaginable and will punish just about any team’s defense. That ability to score at will have made them the undisputed masters of the game. Their defense however is considered one of the weakest amongst the heavyweights of football.

So what happens when their forwards seem out of sort? Well that’s when things get a little tricky for them. They will nevertheless win if: 1- The opposition’s defense is weak. 2- The opposition strikers are poor finishers or it does not have an offense to speak of.

So the questions are: Are Brazil’s strikers out of form? Do France posess a solid defense? Will France take their chances?

Brazil have scored 14 goals in their last 5 games so that’s question one answered right? Well not quite. They were scored against weak opposition and if you dig deeper you will realise that most of them were the result of defensive blunders. On the pitch Ronaldo and Adriano have looked slow and harmless by their standard. An overweight Ronaldo and an Adriano who seems to have the Gods of Football against him (for once) have made Brazil’s attack look quite ordinary. Moreover the man considered the best player in the world, Ronaldinho, has yet to make a meaningfull impact. Of course we all know what they are capable of but they have not impressed me so far in this World Cup.

They have however scored 10 goals in the competition but will they be able to repeat that against a much more solid defense than that of Croatia, Australia, Japan and Ghana. I have serious doubts about that. France’s defense has been the most impressive part of their team so far, especially Gallas and Sagnol. Brazil will have their work cut out given Ronaldo’s poor form.

On the other hand France have had trouble scoring goals lately but I feel quite confident they will score against (an improved) but still average Brazilian defense. Both Ghana and Croatia created bags of chance but failed to convert any due to poor finishing. I doubt the French will miss such opportunities if and when they occur. France seems to have found their goal scoring touch again following their 3-1 win over Spain, scoring as many goals in one game as they did in three group stage matches. It seems Brazil have picked the wrong time to play the French.

The head to head stands at 2-3-2, their last match ending a 0-0 draw. But here is an interesting piece of statistics: France have not lost a competitive match to Brazil since the 1958 World Cup.

Zidane was an initial worry but is expected to play. Kaka and Emerson are probably out and will be replaced by Juninho and Gilberto Silva.

Brazil:
Dida - Cafu, Juan, Lucio, Roberto Carlos - Gilberto Silva, Ze Roberto - Juninho, Ronaldinho - Ronaldo, Adriano.

France:
Barthez - Sagnol, Thuram, Gallas, Abidal - Vieira, Makelele - Ribéry, Zidane, Malouda - Henry.

VERDICT

For the reasons outlined above I believe we are likely to witness an upset on Saturday and the end of the World Cup for the holders. But the main reason for opposing Brazil is the incredible value on France. The bookies did not overreact to France’s win over Spain and the French are available at a great price.

The Pick :

BEST BETTING TIP :

Take France to win at overinflated odds (Betfair @5.2 or Pinnacle @5.00)