WORLD CUP BETTING PICK - GERMANY V ITALY

World Cup

2006-07-04 - Germany vs Italy

A Sports Betting Pick by Mark

Dortmund, Westfalenstadion, tuesday, 4 July 21:00 CET

Referee: Benito Archundia (Mexico)



Germany

After beating Argentina in a penalty shoot-out and the elimination of "mighty" Brasil by France, belief has grown that Germany really can go all the way in this tournament. However they were dealt a heavy blow today as midfielder Torsten Frings has been suspended by the FIFA for supposedly punching at Argentine player Cruz after the game. For the German team this suspension is a real punch in the face as Frings has been outstanding in his key midfield role so far during this World Cup. This means that either Sebastian Kehl or most likely Tim Borowski will take his place instead.

Good news is that both Ballack and Klose who struggled with fitness after the Argentina game are both passed fully fit and will figure. Except the missing of Frings, coach Klinsmann will stick to his regular team here with players like Neuville and Odonkor being ready on the bench if they are needed.

It will be interesting to see how the reaction of the team will be on the pitch as they promised to give everything for Frings. Klinsmann should be wise enough to watch out for overmotivation and have his men prepared righly here.

With Frings being out, for Germany only Friedrich, Odonkor and Podolski are standing at 1 yellow card for this game.


Italy

Italy of all teams probably had the easiest road into the semi finals so far as they got lucky against Australia being helped by a controversial penalty decision. In the quarter finals though they had little trouble disposing Ukraine and claimed a convincing and deserved 3-0 win with targetman Toni finally getting his goals.

Fact is that Italy have made it into the semi's as usual and furthermore are a kind of "Angstgegner" for the Germans as they mostly had the upper hand when both teams met in World Cup games. Of course there are also the memories of that 4-1 win in a friendly game, but i wouldn't lay too much emphasis on that result.

For Italy, De Rossi is still out suspended, while with Gattuso, Zambrotta and Grosso only 3 players are currently standing at 1 yellow card.


Probable Line ups

Germany: Lehmann - Friedrich, Mertesacker, Metzelder, Lahm - Schneider, Borowski (Kehl), Ballack, Schweinsteiger - Klose, Podolski

Italy Buffon - Zambrotta, Cannavaro, Materazzi, Grosso - Camonaresi, Pirlo, Gattuso, Perrotta - Totti - Toni


Verdict

It will be a close encounter for sure. Germany have shown more than Italy so far during this WC as they had the tougher schedule. And of course there's the home advantage and the Dortmund factor were Germany have an awsome record. Italy however have to be rated as the smarter team i guess and also are an "Angstgegner" for Germany.

The Pick :

BEST BETTING TIP :

Germany are slight favourites here, but not a value price imo.