WORLD CUP BETTING PICK - GERMANY V ITALY

World Cup

2006-07-04 - Germany vs Italy

A Sports Betting Pick by Cruiser

Analysis:

Italy will have to overcome the odds here as they have to beat host nation Germany in 90 or 120 minutes in which no nation has done before in 71 years while Germany has played International matches at Dortmund.I will state here that home advantage will be a decisive factor here as of the 17 World Cup Finals so far, six have been won by the host nation. Uruguay in 1930, Italy in 1934, England in 1966, Germany in 1974, Argentina in 1978 and France in 1998.

Then if we analyse the performance of other host nations, Brazil and Sweden, did managed to go to the final and finished as runners-up (Brazil did it in 1950 and Sweden in 1958). Three other hosts go all the way to the semi-finals stage - Chile in 1962, Italy in 1990 and South Korea in 2002 when they co-hosted it with Japan.

But today in Dortmund, where Germany have won 13 out of the 14 matches played at Dortmund, with a 1-1 draw against Wales in 1977 the only dent in that record, they will aim to exact revenge for the defeat that the suffered at the hands of the Italians in their last encounter- a friendly in March 2006. And against Italy, in Dortmund, the Germans will be defending their own territory on their favourite pitch and at their favourite venue, backed by their strong home crowd!

Germany Midfielder Tim Borowski has stated that the crowd will be the vital support they needed and it will be similar like having a 12th player in their side.

But perhaps the man responsible for their success so far is Klinsmann. He was part of the West Germany team that won the World Cup back in 1990 and will likely field the same team that faced Argentina, with the exception of Torsten Fring who has been suspended after FIFA reviewed TV Pictures which shows him hitting Argentina forwd Julio Ricardo in the face after the penalty shoot-out which they won. Expected to replace him will be Tim Borowski or Sebastian Kehl. FIFA added that Frings can play in the final if Germany qualifies to the final to be held this Sunday.

Germany has a score to settle with Italy as back in March Italy thrashed them 4-1 in a friendly that nearly cost Juergen Klinsmann his job. And Michael Ballack, who was playing his football with Bayern Munich was also beaten by Italian side A.C Milan 4-1 in the Champions League. Things wasn't looking good for German football.

However, if you look at two things, playing a friendly game in Florence against Italy in March and losing 4-1 and compare it with playing a World Cup semi-finals at a stadium in which Germany have never lost is a completely different thing altogether now. For the record Italy scored through Alberto Gilardino, Luca Toni, Daniele De Rossi and Alessandro Del Piero before Germany's only goal was scored by Roberth Huth in the 82nd minute.

Italy on the other hand, goes into this match not expecting to emulate their 4-1 win when they did it in March then. Gianluca Zambrotta was quick to point out that both team has equal strength and it will not be a similar game when Italy won with a big scoreline in March. Marcello Lippi himself is not looking at their previous encounter as he stated that despite the overwhelming scoreline then, it does not reflect the German's team gap with Italy and it does not show that Italy is better than Germany at all.

The decisive factor will be the venue itself - Dortmund! The host side Germany have not lost there in 14 years and three reasons are good enoguh for the home team to beat Italy. Firstly they are on a roll at the moment, secondly the belief is there that the World Cup is theirs to win and lastly the support of the home fans.

Germany have won the World Cup back in 1954 and 1974 - when they hosted the tournament and also in 1990 when Klinsmann was in the side as a striker. Klinsmann will do what he knows best and that is to instruct his boys to go on the attack here. All point to a German win here. Watch out for the silent predator - Klose as he will hit the target when you least expect it. Also Lukas Podolski.

Take Germany and give the 1/4 ball for a 1-0 or 2-1 win here.

Cheers and good luck,
Cruiser

The Pick :

BEST BETTING TIP :

Take Germany to win this match in 90 mins.