WORLD CUP BETTING PICK - PORTUGAL V FRANCE

World Cup

2006-07-05 - Portugal vs France

A Sports Betting Pick by BlunderCity

At the begining of the tournament few would have expected these two teams to make the semi-final. Portugal have the most charismatic coach of all the teams in the competition while France boast some of the best players in the world. Yet none of these two impressed anyone pre-tournament and both suffered from their inability to score freely. This will be a clash between two of the best defenses in the game.

Portugal will play their 5th semi final of a major competition and will try to make history here by reaching the final for the first time. You can therefore expect the team to be extremely motivated. They have been unimpressive to watch throughout this World Cup, almost boring but there is no doubt as to why they are here. They are extremely well organised with players who seem to perfectly work together but their defense is in my opinion the main reason for their success. Carvalho has probably been the most impressive member of the Portugal squad over the last month. France isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders right now and they will find the Portugese defense extremely difficult to break.

On the other hand I expect them to again be totally helpless upfront. Pauleta is really struggling right now and I can’t see any other strikers able to fill the void. I expect the main threat in attack to come from Deco or Ronaldo. However I doubt Portugal will score since I have yet to see the team succesfully construct a meaningful attack. If they do, it will probably be an individual effort. Portugal could not score against England in an hour of play despite having an extra man. The return of Deco might help but the threat upfront remains very weak.

As I said earlier defense will be key in this match and I expect very few goals (if any). France may boast some of the best strikers in the world, they are having trouble finding the back of the net. This seemed to have improved however after their win over Spain (3-1) and Brazil (1-0) where the old partnership of Zidane/Viera/Henry looked impressive again. Zidane’s lack of zest before the tournament was a constant worry and a regular talking point in the French media. Those who watched him play against Spain and Brazil will have realised he is back to his best level. And the inclusion of Ribery (now a regular in the starting 11) has added some extra pace. But let’s not kid ourselves. France have been poor upfront for the last 3 years and it will take more than two good matches plus a pacy youngster to change people’s opinion of France’s forward threat.

Defensively however it’s a different story. France’s defence has been solid throughout the tournament conceding only one goal from open play (the other being a penalty). If there is no Barthez blunder I expect France to keep a clean sheet given Portugal’s toothless offense.

Finaly it is worth pointing out that Portugal have been the “dirtiest” side of the tournament. They top the disciplinary table with 20 yellow cards and 2 reds while France is ranked 6th with 12 yellows. And as always when two defensive teams come head to head fouls are conceeded and the frustration of not being able to score can slowly take their toll on the players forcing them into bad tackles and other unsavoury dives. There is more than a good chance we will see a number a cards being shown on Wednesday. One word of caution though: Bookings have exploded during this World Cup and that has infuriated everyone in the game. For the last few matches we have seen referees exercising a lot more restaint and waiting a little longer before booking players. However I expect at least 5 cards to be shown in 90mn.

Portugal has had fitness worries ahead of this match with Figo and Ronaldo doubtful at some point. I suspect both of them will feature though but this is something to keep in mind. Deco and Costinha will return to the squad after serving suspensions. France is at full strength and will most probably field the same team that beat Brazil in the quarters.

Portugal:
Ricardo - Miguel, Meira, Carvalho, Nuno Valente - Costinha, Maniche - Figo, Deco, Ronaldo - Pauleta.

France:
Barthez - Sagnol, Thuram, Gallas, Abidal - Vieira, Makelele - Ribéry, Zidane, Malouda - Henry.

THE VERDICT

France are on fire at the moment beating Spain and knocking out the holders Brazil. They have not lost to the Portugese for 30 years. I therefore expect France to beat Portugal who have yet to step up a gear. I also expect France to keep a clean sheet. There could be very few goals in this one and a fair number of bookings.

The Pick :

BEST BETTING TIP :

France to win @2.28 (Pinnacle and Mansion)
France to keep a clean sheet @2.32 (betfair) or @2.20 (Paddy Power)
under 2 @1.65 (bet365)
under 1.5 @2.36 (betfair)