It’s the final round of the Intertoto competition and I know that we promised to cover the tournament but it really has been a bit of a non-event and information has been difficult to find.

It is the same again this weekend, although I think that this is a match that has an appeal from a gambling viewpoint if you believe that money talks in European football.

Newcastle United are a famous old club in England, with a big ground (they had 31,000 spectators for the first leg) and a lot of history – and the Geordies are desperate for European football this season in order to attract (and pay for) a couple of new players this season.

Throw in the fact that the UEFA organisation would like to see another English entrant in the UEFA Cup, in order to maximise the TV rights into the UK and you’ve got some powerful money reasons to believe that both club and organiser want to see Newcastle progress.

And after the recent events in Italy most of us are aware that there are occasions when “big business” gets what they want.

Generally, from a footballing point of view you would usually fancy English side Newcastle to be stronger than the Norweigan club Lillestrom too.

But at this time of the season Lillestrom has the advantage of being fully match fit (in the middle of their league campaign) while Newcastle are just at the beginning of their pre-season training.

In the first match Lillestrom had the better of the first period opening the scoring, with Newcastle looking better after halftime – equalising and pushing for a winner at the end of the game, but had to settle for a 1-1 draw.

Newcastle travelled for this game on Wednesday, allowing 4 days to acclimatise, showing that they are seriously focused on getting the winning result that they need in this second leg.

It’s certainly not a banker bet – and you need to be a little bit cynical to take a shot – but I find that the price of 2.20+ being offered on the BIGGER club Newcastle just too tempting to turn down.

Keep the stakes small as it is JUST the intertoto cup.

The Pick :

Newcastle to win 2-0

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Lillestrom 20% - Draw 25% - Newcastle 55%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Does fortune favour the big clubs? I think so and will be taking NEWCASTLE here.