HIT GORICA

The reigning Slovenian Champions Hit Gorica are launching a new fresh bid to play Champions league football following their last two unsuccessfull attempts that both finished early on in the qualification stages.

Gorica has won last three back-to back championships and did so with home-grown players and very small if not ridiculous budget. But to be fair, tomorrow we might not see the team that eventually won the dead heat for the crown last year as coach Pinni's squad was heavily weakened with 5 players from the first eleven leaving the club for better money while on the other hand Gorica failed to make any worth-mentioning signing to fill the holes.

The latest blow came this week when star striker and two years in a row top scorer Burgič was sold to AIK Solna, leaving Pinni with little options before the crucial match. Without him and Birsa, who went to Sochaux, this just isn't the same team. The importance of those two players can be easily compared to the impact Shevchenko and Rebrov had at Dinamo Kyev, back at the days.

One thing is for sure, Pinni will not back off of his playing style and Gorica tends to play agressively with high pace and work rate. It's hard to imagine where the goals should come from but Ranič and Demirovič could be the two players to watch here.

It is still unclear whether Pinni will start with a lone striker or two up front but my bet would be with one as the primary objective is not to concede a goal here. Somehow I hope that young Rexhal and Matavž get the chance to shine as they both have talent and could be the surprise package from Pinni.

STEAUA BUCHAREST

Steaua, the famous winners of UEFA Champions League 1986, will on the other hand probably be satisfied with a goal scored, although following their succesfull UEFA cup season their ambitions have surely increased.

They know they have a good chance against a weakend Gorica side and they want to make their last year's UEFA cup run to the semi finals and the experience count. Judging by the players at their disposal, I would say the Romanians are a better side but it seems that they want to hold their breath for a while and they are reluctant to be branded favourites here.

Even the Romanian legend Hagi went on the record to say that Steaua should be careful before meeting Gorica as Maribor showed the potential Slovenian teams possess.

Honestly, Gorica is not Maribor, they are champions, but they don't have European pedigree Maribor has and even though they are the dominating side in Slovenian football, their average home game crowd is about 600 fans. I don't expect more than 2500 fans tonight and this stadium can hardly create the kind of pressure than in Maribor.

THE VERDICT

I think Gorica's best bet tonight will be not to receive a goal but I can't see that happening. Romanians on the other hand will want to make the return leg a formality and will go for the win here.

They are the better side and I think the prices around 1.90 are fair as I make them about 45% likely to win. The value imo however lies in the draw, about 35% likely if you ask me.

The Pick :

Steaua to win, 2-1 or 2-0

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Gorica 20% - Draw 35% - Steaua Bucharest 45%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

My pick is Steaua to win, 1-2 or 0-2 the likeliest results but I would recommend covering it with a 1-1 exact scoreline.