NCAA Football
2007-08-30 - Buffalo at Rutgers
A Sports Betting Pick by PlayForDays
Rutgers was a huge surprise last season led by RB’s Ray Rice and Brian Leonard.Nobody predicted that they would have a chance to not only win the Big East outright, but play in their first ever BCS bowl game. Neither came true, but they finished 11-2 and will be looking to improve on last season.
While I think that Rutgers are a solid team, they will not have the advantage of sneaking up on teams like they did last season. This will make reaching 10 wins difficult.
They do return RB Ray Rice as well as starting QB Mike Teel on the offensive side of the ball, but they’ll have to look to 2 underclassmen on the offensive line.
Defensively, Rutgers is very young as they look to start up to 7 underclassmen. I expect that their 13.5 ppg allowed will rise much closer to 20 this season.
Buffalo finished just 2-10 last season for first year coach Turner Gill. This year they will look to start 13 seniors on both sides of the ball.
I expect Buffalo to be slightly better in coach Gill’s second year as the players have 1 season under their belt in his system.
Buffalo lost by an average of only 17 ppg last season and they should improve on that this year.
The Bulls were 4-1 ATS last year in which they were 20 or more point underdogs, including going 3-0 when underdogs by 30 or more.
THE VERDICT
I expect that the pressure on Rutgers this season combined with the improvement of this Buffalo team should keep the score within the 31 ½ points that are available.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Buffalo +31 ½.
