Dutch EreDivision
2007-11-11 - PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar
A Sports Betting Pick by Erik
PSV Eindhoven
PSV are currently on the third place in the ranking with the team picking up 23 points in their first ten games of the season.
The team knew two very turbulent weeks after the departure of team manager Koeman to Valencia and with Wouters taking on the position of interim-manager, PSV booked two defeats in their last two games. Last week SC Heerenveen was too strong for the team from Eindhoven with PSV losing 2-1 due to an own goal from Kromkamp (def) twenty minutes from time.
In the first half Lazovic (att) opened the score for the visitors but SC Heerenveen leveled the score only three minutes later and with SC Heerenveen grabbing the lead in the second half, PSV suffered their first defeat of the season.
Last Wednesday PSV suffered a sensitive 2-0 defeat on the road to Fenerbahce in the Champions League and with only two games remaining, the gap to the number two in the group Fenerbahce has increased to four points with PSV only having a very small chance to progress into the next round.
For the game against AZ the hosts will miss Mendez (def) due to a suspension with the defender picking up a red card in the game against SC Heerenveen last week while Afellay (mid), Culina (mid) and Da Costa (def) will remain sidelined with injuries.
AZ Alkmaar
After a very poor start of the season AZ seems to have re-found their form from last season with the team booking two consecutive wins to climb to the tenth place in the ranking with 14 points from ten games.
Last week the team booked a 4-0 home win over NEC thanks to goals from Cziommer (mid), Ari (att), Jaliens (def) and De Zeeuw (mid) with the latter returning from injury. Two weeks ago AZ booked their first win in six games beating NAC Breda 2-3 on the road thanks to goals from Opdam (def), Ari (att) and Jenner (def).
With Ari (att) getting in form and AZ starting to play their fast combination football from last year, the team certainly has improved much over the last weeks with the confidence in the team growing.
The game against PSV will be seen as maybe one of the most important ones this season where a defeat would practically rule them out for the title with the gap to the top three growing to twelve points, where a win would bring them back in the competition decreasing the gap to PSV to six points.
De Zeeuw (mid) will once again be included in the starting eleven against PSV on Sunday while Schaars (mid), Didulica (gk), Martens (att) and Luirink (def) will remain sidelined with longterm injuries.
Previous meetings
03/02/2007 PSV - AZ 2-3
22/10/2006 AZ - PSV 1-3
22/03/2006 PSV - AZ 2-0
26/02/2006 AZ - PSV 1-2
15/10/2005 PSV - AZ 3-0
12/02/2005 AZ - PSV 0-0
21/08/2004 PSV - AZ 5-1
16/05/2004 AZ - PSV 2-4
27/09/2003 PSV - AZ 0-1
03/05/2003 PSV - AZ 2-2
The Verdict
Although a very tough call on paper to pick a winner between these two teams, I think some things have to be taken into consideration approaching this match.
PSV knew a good start of the season with the team topping the ranking until last week, but after the departure of Koeman things have been going downhill in Eindhoven. Some internal issues have been floating to the surface with both Afellay (mid) and Aissati (mid) not being completely happy and also against Fenerbahce last week the team did not really seem to believe in getting a good result. Team manager Wouters clearly does not have the attitude and charisma of Koeman and this seems to have its reflection on the group.
AZ on the other hand knew a terrible start of the season with Arveladze (att) and Koevermans (att) leaving and new signings Pelle (att) and Ari (att) having a lot of trouble to adapt themselves to the fast game AZ is playing. However, the team has booked some good results over the last two weeks and coach Van Gaal was very satisfied with the progress of his team with the midfielders De Zeeuw (mid) and Cziommer (mid) causing a lot of threat in the game against NEC last week.
With the performances of PSV going downhill and the confidence of AZ increasing each week, the game on Sunday will be a turning point for either AZ of PSV.
Will PSV be able to prevent suffering a third defeat in a row and refind their form? Of course the team has been travelling to Turkey on Wednesday and AZ will have the advantage of having a full week to prepare for this Sunday. Will AZ be able to continue their winning mood and fight themselves back into the title fight?
With odds on offer for AZ to win around $5.00 on the exchanges I seriously think these are too high and I will take these with small stakes. The double chance on AZ not to lose can be found around evens or even higher on the exchanges.
The reason why I will be taking these bets is that all three outcomes seems equally likely here on Sunday and with AZ grabbing a 2-3 win here last season and PSV not in their best of form, odds around evens for AZ not to lose are far too generous in my opinion.
However, please do not go crazy on this game. I have to say that given normal cicurmstances I would have left this game alone, but with the current form of both teams and the fact PSV has been travelling this week, the offers are too hard to resist and represent quite some value in my opinion.
BEST BETTING TIP :
AZ Alkmaar to win $5.00 (Betfair)2/10 units staked on this one
AZ Alkmaar double chance $2.10 (Betfair)
7/10 units staked on this one
