Euro 2008
2007-11-21 - Sweden vs Latvia
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
THE GROUP F SITUATION
Sweden suffered a heavy 0-3 defeat to Spain on Saturday, but the Swedes can still ease into the Euro2008 finals if they manage to win or draw in their final game against Latvia.
SWEDEN
Generally, Sweden have been effective, if unspectacular in this qualification series. With a 7-2-2 record Sweden have cruised along at the top of the group with Spain and there has been little real doubt about the chances of success.
However, a 1-2 loss to Northern Ireland in Belfast was a shock, and it's that result early on in the group which gives the Irish the better head to head record - and therefore makes this game still important.
Swedish coach Lars Lagerback is confident that his side can recover in time to make sure that they do the job.
LATVIA
Latvia had their biggest win of the campaign on Saturday, in comfortably beating minnows Liechtenstein, to partically make amends for the shock away loss back in March.
Wins over Iceland (H&A) and N.Ireland (H) complete the list of successes this time around for Lativa who have a 4-0-7 record as they approach their final game.
THE STATS
Sweden started the home section of the group well enough but have tailed off with a couple of surprise draws.
Sweden Home Form (3-2-0)
17/10/07 D 1-1 v N. Ireland
08/09/07 D 0-0 v Denmark
06/06/07 W 5-0 v Iceland
07/10/06 W 2-0 v Spain
06/09/06 W 3-1 v Liechtenstein
Latvia have been pretty awful when travelling, including slipping to a 0-1 loss to little Leitchtenstein, making it 7 losses in the last 8 road games.
Latvia Away Form (1-0-4)
17/10/07 L 1-3 v Denmark
13/10/07 W 4-2 v Iceland
12/09/07 L 0-2 v Spain
28/03/07 L 0-1 v Liechtenstein
11/10/06 L 0-1 v N. Ireland
Latvia have managed to make it tough for Sweden in recent head to head clashes - but the Swedes did manage to win the first group match in Riga 1-0 last year.
Head to Head Form
02/09/06 Latvia 0-1 Sweden
07/09/02 Latvia 0-0 Sweden
11/10/03 Sweden 0-1 Latvia
THE VERDICT
While Sweden only need a draw, I don't expect them to play for that result - as it leaves too much at risk late in the game - and the lack of pressure to score could actually mean a better performance from the Swedish side.
This should be a straight forward task for the Swedes here, despite the head-to-head record, and the margin could be a couple of goals.
The Pick :
Sweden 2-0 Latvia
