Champions League
2008-04-08 - Liverpool vs Arsenal
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
UEFA Champions League Quarter-finals
Anfield - Liverpool
Tuesday, 8th April 2008 - KO 20:45 (CET)
Liverpool finally get to have the home advantage in a game against Arsenal - as the two English clubs face-off at Anfield on Tuesday night.
LIVERPOOL (ENGLAND)
Liverpool have hit form at the right time of the season especially at Anfield where they are unbeaten in their last nine league games (7-2-0) and have won each of their last three Champions league games too.
Those games have all seen plenty of goals with Liverpool scoring 23 goals in 9 league games, and 14 in 3 European games, with Spanish hotshot Fernando Torres very much to the fore.
Liverpool have scored in each of those 12 home games, but then Liverpool needed to win those games, now Liverpool have a situation where a 0-0 draw would also be enough, and I just wonder what the game plan will be?
There is little doubt that when manager Rafa Benitez releases the shackles and lets Liverpool play that they can be an entertaining side - but will he do that here?
Caution is often the watchword for the Spaniard - and this might be a very uncomfortable game for home fans to watch.
ARSENAL (ENGLAND)
Arsenal are not in good form right now, although they are still dominating possession and chances, they are lacking a recognised striker to convert these chances into goals.
And at the back Arsenal are continuing to concede sloppy goals, with just four clean sheets in 16 away premier league games.
The record is better in Europe with 11 clean sheets in the last three seasons, but frankly much of the European opposition has been weak, and also that time period does not reflect recent form.
The good news for Arsenal is that they can score goals, finding the net in 4 of 5 European road games this season, and 14 of 16 Premier League games.
That's good news for the Gunners because they're going to need to score to avoid elimination.
HEAD TO HEAD
Liverpool have had the recent advantage over Arsenal here at Anfield in the league, winning three games on the trot before the two sides fought out (yet another) 1-1 draw in October of this season.
Last season Arsenal had better success in the domestic cup competitions, winning 3-1 in the FA Cup, and 6-3 in the Carling Cup within the space of just 4 days.
THE VERDICT
Tricky - very tricky.
Liverpool are in better form, and with home advantage I'd definately take the price on a home win normally .... BUT only if the home side forget about the fact that a 0-0 draw in enough to progress.
I feel that the longer it stays 0-0, the more likely it is that Liverpool will withdraw back into the 4-5-1 formation, and that will give Arsenal the sniff of a late goal.
(Remember Anfield 1989 when Liverpool played as though they'd accetp a 0-1 loss right through the second half only to concede the Championship decider to Michael Thomas late on?)
But if I know this then surely so does Rafa?
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Liverpool 2-0 Arsenal
BEST BETTING TIP :
Ignoring the "Spanish Strategy" scenario then I'd go for :A LIVERPOOL win at a very good price.
A NO GOALSCORER saver bet to insure against a 0-0 result.
