Eircom Leagues
2008-05-09 - St Patricks vs U.C.D
A Sports Betting Pick by Footie Addict
Republic of Ireland, Eircom Premier League
Friday 9th May 2008 - KO 19:45
This match appears to be the most likely “home win” according to the bookies, and I’m finding it hard to argue the point, given the statistics.
St. Patrick’s are top of the league, with an 8-0-1 record so far, and given last years good end to the season can be stretched to a 14-1-1 record.
St. Patrick’s have already beaten Cork and Bohemians, but lost narrowly to Derry 1-0. The remaining teams (mid-table and lower table opposition) have all been beaten (Sligo, Cobh, Finn Harps, Galway, Bray & Shamrock Rovers).
U.C.D. have managed a 1-4-4 record so far in this division, with their only win coming away at Bray back on the 2nd day of the season. They have managed a couple of draws recently, noticeably on their own patch vs Bohemians.
Draws have also been earned vs the likes of Sligo & Cobh, but given that the Sligo game was at home, and that Cobh are 2nd bottom they are not hugely significant results in my opinion.
It is worth mentioning that U.C.D. actually beat St. Patrick’s in the league cup this season, but teams were changed for that game, which U.C.D. were still fortunate to win.
This game is a Dublin derby game, and both sides will be eager to win here, though given the number of Dublin based teams, it is rare that any one fixture gets big “upset potential” (Shamrock Rovers & Bohemians are also Dublin based).
If anything the fact that St. Patrick’s were beaten in the league cup will keep them more focused on getting a positive result here.
Here’s the current form, which does highlight how good St. Patrick’s are (most recent games first);
St. Patrick’s
W 3-2 vs Cork City (H)
W 1-0 vs Shamrock Rovers (A)
W 1-0 vs Cobh (H)
W 3-0 vs Finn Harps (A)
L 0-1 vs Derry City (A)
W 3-0 vs Bray (A)
W 1-0 vs Galway (H)
W 0-0 vs Bohemians (A)
W 3-1 vs Sligo Rovers (H)
U.C.D
D 1-1 vs Bohemians (H)
D 0-0 vs Cobh (A)
D 1-1 vs Shamrock Rovers (A)
L 1-3 vs Drogheda (H)
L 0-1 vs Cork City (A)
D 0-0 vs Sligo Rovers (H)
L 0-1 vs Finn Harps (A)
W 2-0 vs Bray (A)
L 2-3 vs Derry City (H)
St. Patrick’s have won 8 times this season out of nine games, however 5 of those games were by a one goal margin – so avoid giving lots of goals away on handicaps.
U.C.D. however don’t score many goals (7 in 10 league games), so St. Patrick’s may not have to score a huge number either.
U.C.D have not faired that well vs top 5 sides, they lost to Cork, Drogheda and Derry, and drew at home vs Bohemians. St. Patrick’s are the best of all 5 and are at home.
The Verdict
I can’t see a repeat of the league cup fixture – if anything it will focus St. Patrick’s even more on getting a result here. St. Patrick's to win, but possibly not by a large number of goals.
U.C.D have only had 2/9 over 2.5 goal matches, while St. Patrick’s have 4/9 matches. Under 2.5 Goals may be an option too, though I’ll be going for the home win.
Confidence – 8/10 (Slight possibility of a 1-1 draw, if U.C.D get an early goal).
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take St. Patrick's to win.Under 2.5 Goals - (7/10)
