Tennis
2008-06-25 - Wimbledon- Day 3 vs
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
The Second Round of the tournament starts on Wednesday and will be continuing on Thursday and we start seeing some closer matches in the mens and womens sections.Novak Djokovic v Marat Safin
Djokovic came through his 1st round match quite easily even though he had a blip in the 2nd set. He knows he needs to limit his time on court as he looks to displace Federer as the King of Wimbledon. Djokovic is probably in the top 5 grass court players in the World and I would only rate Federer, Nadal and Roddick as being better at the moment while leaving him on a level with Murray and Gasquet.
Safin has never performed effectively on this surface, wanting to leave the 'grass for cows' as soon as possible. He has the tools to do well on grass but his movement lets him down. Safin beat Fognini in straight sets in the 1st round but he has failed to progress beyond the 3rd round in his last 6 appearances here. Last year he played Federer on Centre Court, and started really badly that left him 2 sets down before he got going.
These 2 have only met once previously when Safin demolished Djokovic for the loss of 3 games in the 2005 Australian Open. I dont need to say how different each players career has gone since then.
I have seen the handicap here set at + 6.5 games for Safin. I have a feeling 1 set will be close but Safin's mental battles within himself will allow Djokovic to cover that handicap eventually.
Bethanie Mattek v Vera Dushevina
I am surprised that the odds are so close between these 2 players.
Mattek came through a tough opening set to demolish Bremond in 3 sets in the 1st round. She also reached the SF in a grass court tournament at Birmingham last week. Mattek has only qualified for the main Wimbledon draw on 2 occasions and she has reached the 2nd round as her best effort. However, being unseeded meant she played Venus Williams one year and Kuznetsova in another.
Dushevina beat Kirilenko in the 1st round with relative ease but her game matches up well against the young Russians. She came into the tournament with only 1 previous grass court match played this year, which she lost at Eastbourne, and has a poor 1-4 record in the main draw at Wimbledon. Last year was Dushevina's best performance when she reached the 2nd round for the first time.
The players are ranked at 69 (Mattek) and 83 (Dushevina) in the World but it is Mattek who has had the far stronger year and I can see her winning this match here.
Roger Federer v Robin Soderling
This should be a test for Federer, and the only real threat to his chances of reaching the Semi Finals here. Federer breezed past Dominic Hrbaty in the 1st round for a loss of 7 games, but I did not think he was as dominant as some of the 'experts' claimed. Hrbaty has not been the same player this season as injuries take their toll on his body.
Federer does still hold the intimidating 60 match unbeaten run on grass courts as well as being the 5 time winner of this tournament so is the obvious favourite.
Soderling has had a solid year, reaching 2 finals on the indoor courts earlier this season, and also reached the QF at Halle on grass last week. He has a habit of breaking down with injuries, but also holds a solid grass court record. His best performance at Wimbledon came last year when he reached the 3rd round and had an epic 5 set match with Rafael Nadal. A big problem for Soderling is his lack of mental strength.
Federer holds a 6-0 lead over Soderling in the head to heads and has beaten him 2 times this season. Federer has also won 11 of 12 sets contested by the 2 players and has a win on grass over Soderling at Halle, although that was where Soderling won his only set. Federer and Soderling have contested 5 tiebreaks in those 12 sets played.
I have a feeling the games handicap will give Soderling + 9.5 games and that is a big handicap for Federer to best. If Soderling can take at least 1 set to a tie break and play like he can on grass, I think he might be able to win on the handicap.
BEST BETTING TIP :
Djokovic - 6.5 gamesMattek win
Soderling + 9.5 games
Dancevic, Lopez, Gonzalez, Ferrero Accumulator
Underdog singles- Andreev, Del Potro, Stosur, Pavlyuchenkova
