Tennis
2008-06-30 - Wimbledon- Day 7 vs
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Fourth Round
Wimbledon gets really interesting this week as the tournament begins to take shape and the real contenders for the title are separated from the players that have alreay had a good tournament but are not expected to do too much.
Today we will have all of the 4th round matches from the women's and the men's draw and the match ups start becoming closer and harder to predict.
Marat Safin v Stanislas Wawrinka
Safin has had probably his best week this year as he makes the 4th round of a tournament that he has openly criticised in the past. However, his overall appeal means he will be back on the show courts for another tough test of his credentials.
Safin did well to get through Andreas Seppi in the last round, and the match ended in virtual darkness late on Friday evening, but the test provided by the Switzerland number 2 is going to be very difficult. Safin has only dropped 1 set so far in his first 3 matches.
Wawrinka is not a big name player to the casual fan can be forgiven for being a little bitter that he comes from the same nation as Roger Federer. However, he is ranked in the top 10 of the World and has begun to realise his potential this season.
Wawrinka has yet to drop a set in this tournament, including a victory over Juan Martin Del Potro. He has never really had any success on grass and came into this tournament with 4 straight defeats on the surface. Wawrinka has played 3 times before at Wimbledon and his best effort was a 3rd round appearance 2 years ago. He was also knocked out twice in the 1st round.
Wawrinka holds a 2-0 head to head record over Safin including a straight sets victory at the US Open Grand Slam.
I am again surprised Safin is made the favourite in a match that does not seem to favour his game. Wawrinka is mentally tougher and could frustrate Safin with his shot making abilities. This will be a close match but I think Wawrinka can come through in 4 sets here.
Marcos Baghdatis v Feliciano Lopez
Baghdatis has quietly moved through the draw with relative ease and looks like he has a very strong chance of making a semi final with Roger Federer this year. He only recently returned from an injury but it does not seem to have affected his game and he has looked good in his 3 matches.
Baghdatis has already reached a quarter final and a semi final here at Wimbledon and his game suits perfectly to grass. He will be disappointed that he lost 4-6 4-6 to Federer in Halle but I dont think he will be too disappointed with his draw in this round.
Lopez is a solid Spanish player that has come through 3 rounds, only losing 2 sets on the way. He benefited from David Nalbandian and Ivo Karlovic exiting the tournament early but Baghdatis could be a step too far for him.
Lopez has a good history at Wimbledon in recent seasons, making a quarter final and the 4th round here but losses to Federer, Karlovic, Lleyton Hewitt and Jo Wilfried Tsonga shows a weakness against solid grass court performers.
Baghdatis leads Lopez 1-0 in the head to head meetings, with a 3 set voctory at Doha 2 years ago.
This is a tough match for Baghdatis and I expect 1 or 2 sets potentially going to a tie break and this leans me to picking Baghdatis to win in 4.
Janko Tipsarevic v Rainer Schuettler
I still find it hard to believe that Tipsarevic is the last men's Serbian player in the draw after outlasting Novak Djokovic and Victor Troicki and his defeat of Andy Roddick in round 2 has really opened the draw out for himself.
Tipsarevic beat Tursunov in a tough battle in the last round but he did so in straight sets and he looks good to progress further in this tournament. He has only dropped 1 set enroute to this stage of the competition.
Schuettler has turned back the clocks for one last hurrah at a Grand Slam event. He shocked James Blake in round 2 before disposing for Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in straight sets on Saturday but this will be a whole new test.
Schuettler has only dropped 2 sets on his way to the 2nd week, and both of those came in his struggle with Blake. This is the furthest he has come at Wimbledon since 2003 and he had been knocked out in the 1st round on his last 2 appearances here.
The 2 have never met before.
Tipsarevic has all the tools to beat Schuettler here and I would be surprised if he is to even drop a set in his quest to make the quarter finals here. Schuettler was a solid player but I truly believe his best years are behind him now and I expect Tipsarevic to come through.
Andy Murray v Richard Gasquet
The best match of the day between 2 young stars of the game and I think it might live up to its billing.
Murray has looked very efficient in coming through his 3 rounds for the loss of just 1 set, but there was a point in his last match with Tommy Haas where it looked like the Scot was losing his way. Santoro and Malisse were matches that Murray would expect to win and he did so with ease.
Murray has never progressed beyond this point at any Grand Slam and there will be a lot of pressure on him. However, he seems to have all the tools to play on this surface although his 2nd serve is not good enough for the top level of competition he will expect to play for the rest of the week.
Gasquet looked awesome in his first 2 rounds and looked back to his best but struggled somewhat against the limited Gilles Simon in the last round. However, it did seem to me that he was trying new things as he knew he had the game under control, perhaps in anticipation of this match and the potential quarter final with Rafael Nadal.
Gasquet was a semi finalist last season here but his form this year has been patchy at best and he will need to raise his game against Murray. Gasquet has had some of his best results on this surface in recent years so should still be confident in progressing.
Gasquet also leads the head to head with Murray 2-0, including a 3 set win over him last year in Paris which ended Murray's chances of playing in the end of year tournament in Shanghai.
This is a close match between 2 very good players. If Gasquet can play as he did in the first 2 rounds, I would give him a good chance to progress. Murray is always liable to throw in a few bad games together during a match and this could be his downfall here. Gasquet looks like real value at the odds provided so I will go with him here to come through in 4, possibly 5 sets.
Other Predictions
FEDERER over Hewitt in 3 sets
CILIC over Clement in 4 sets
ANCIC over Verdasco in 4 sets
NADAL over Youzhny in 3 sets
ZHENG over Szavay in 3 sets
V WILLIAMS over Kleybanova in 2 sets
JANKOVIC over Tanasugarn in 3 sets
VAIDISOVA over Chakvetadze in 3 sets
S WILLIAMS over Mattek in 2 sets
PETROVA over Kudryavtseva in 2 sets
DEMENTIEVA over Peer in 3 sets
RADWANSKA over Kuznetsova in 3 sets.
Check Forum for Updated Picks
BEST BETTING TIP :
Wawrinka win @ 1.97 (Pinnacle)Baghdatis win 3-1 in sets @ 3.75 (Ladbrokes)
Tipsarevic win 3-0 in sets @ 2.63 (BoyleSports)
Gasquet win @ 2.2 (BoyleSports)
