Tennis
2008-07-04 - Wimbledon- Day 11 vs
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Men's Semi Finals
I was really quite content with Safin coming through his match after all as at least I will get to see 1 good semi final on my birthday after all. We have 2 surprise Semi Finalists this year, and I think we can start getting ready for the Federer-Nadal final we all wanted to see.
Roger Federer v Marat Safin
Federer has cruised through to this stage without dropping a set and must have expected to meet Novak Djokovic here when the draw was made 2 weeks ago. However, he instead meets the enigmatic Marat Safin and will be showing him a lot of respect. Federer beat Mario Ancic with ease in the last round and looked the best he has so far in the tournament. He has only lost his serve 2 times from 72 service games and his placement on the serve has been exceptional, especially in the match with Ancic.
Federer really has not had to move out of 2nd gear for much of this tournament and can be seen trying different manoueveres on the grass court, possibly to attempt to disrupt the rythem for Nadal if they do meet in the Final. His overall game seems to be as good as it gets at the moment and 64 straight wins on grass, 39 at Wimbledon, means he is a worthy favourite here.
I must admit that I have sided against Safin in most rounds this year and he has always allowed me to trade out by playing some tight matches against Andreas Seppi and Feliciano Lopez. Safin has also had his fair share of luck, especially with the rain delay against Lopez at a time when it looked like he was going to have one of his famous mental breakdowns.
Safin has been serving well all week, but has still managed to drop 14 games out of the 92 he has served. More importantly, he has yet to face the kind of returner that Federer is and I think this will be an important part of the match. Safin has also not been afraid to serve and volley, and again this will be a dangerous tactic against a man that has the passing shots Federer possesses.
Federer has a huge 9-2 head to head record lead over Safin with their last meeting coming last year here at Wimbledon in the 3rd round. On that occasion Federer won comfortably 6-1, 6-4, 7-6, and he has not lost to Safin since that amazing match they played in the Australian Open Semi Finals of 2005.
I cannot look beyond a Federer win here, especially as he has the utmost respect for Safin's game and will not look beyond him at all in this match. Federer is serving better, returning better and looked great against Mario Ancic. Safin has achieved brilliantly here this fortnight and I hope he can take the form into the American hard court swing and become another dangerous customer at the US Open.
However, here I see a straight set victory for Federer and I expect him to cover the handicap. It seems slightly low for me and I expected Safin to get a couple of games more than the 6.5 games I have seen on Betfair, and it might be a good idea to keep an eye on how these handicaps change over night.
FEDERER in 3 sets
Rafael Nadal v Rainer Schuettler
Nadal has really got the bit between his teeth during this tournament and has only dropped the 1 set. He played his best tennis in the last 2 rounds to dispose of Mikhael Youzhny and Andy Murray for the loss of no sets and just 16 games. If he makes the final, I expect some of the best tennis we have seen all year.
Nadal seems to be stronger physically, as impossible as that might sound, than last year and has improved all aspects of his game, especially the serve, volleying and his backhand stroke. We have all already seen his destructive games at the French Open, and I really wouldnt want to be Rainer Schuettler (unless I get the 170,000 pound losers cheque that is).
Schuettler came through an epic 5 set match with Arnaud Clement in the last round which lasted 2 days and survived a number of rain breaks. It was a tight contest all the way which ended 8-6 to the German in the final set. However, a real concern for him will be his physical fitness after a tough 2 weeks and the fact that he and Clement were both losing their own service games on a regular basis. Rafael Nadal will not be so forgiving once he breaks serve and rarely hands over any points easily.
Schuettler will enjoy perhaps his last major chance under the limelight as he enters the twilight of his career. I personally do not see any tools he possesses that could even worry Nadal and I think he has done well to come this far but this is the end of the road.
The 2 players have met 4 times and Nadal leads 3-1 after losing the first meeting as a 18 year old. Earlier this year Nadal dismissed Schuettler's challenge in Chennai 6-4, 6-2 and I fear for Schuettler because Nadal is playing much stronger tennis now.
As I have mentioned I cannot see Schuettler hurting Nadal in any way and he would have to play the best game of his entire career to push the Spaniard. Nadal is confident and focused and if he plays as he has done in the last 2 rounds, I expect him to win and cover the handicap, which is still high. To cover the handicap, Nadal would have to break serve about 5 or 6 times, and the way he broke Murray for fun, while Schuettler dropped many games to Clement, suggests he can get this done.
NADAL in 3 sets
BEST BETTING TIP :
Federer -6.5 gamesNadal -9.5 games
