World Cup
2008-09-10 - Croatia vs England
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
FIFA World Cup 2010 European Qualifiers
Wednesday 10th September 2008 - K0 21:00 (local)
Croatia host England in the most high profile match of the night - and I do not expect to see many goals in this one.
CROATIA
Croatia beat England home and away in the Euro2008 campaign, and the hosts would dearly love to repeat that feat in this group as it would be a huge step towards qualification for South Africa.
Croatia's home record in competitive fixtues since 200 is most impressive, as they are unbeaten with a 16-5-0 record in that time, a run which includes wins in 9 of the last 10 home fixtures.
However, under the management of Slaven Bilic it has been noticeable to see that they has been an increased emphasis on not conceding goals, rather than going all out and thrashing opponents.
Over 2.5 goals have only been scored in 3 of the last eight home matches, and that includes wins over Andorra (7-0) and Kazakhstan (3-0).
ENGLAND
It's fashionable to bash the English football team right now - and certainly they've underperformed in finals, but England's travelling record of 13-4-3 in their last 20 qualifying game is literally second to NONE in world football.
Some of that is helped by a "soft" draw as England are usually a seeded side, but still there is no avoiding the fact that a 65% win rate when playing away is a very solid effort.
Though it must be pointed out that those losses have all come in the last three years, with defeats in Russia (1-2), Croatia (0-2), and Northern Ireland (0-1), and so it's easy to see why English bosses were worried about a decline and appointed a quality coach in Fabio Capello.
MATCH ANALYSIS
I certainly give the Croatian side the edge in this match, and I feel that the UK bookmakers especially are offering good prices on the hosts - expecting a large wedge of "patriotic" money to come in from English punters.
But, given the situation in this match, so early in the qualification group, I feel that caution may play a big part in the way that BOTH teams approach this match and as such goal chances will be at a minimum.
Croatia's record against the bigger sides at home, playing the likes of Russia, Sweden, Bulgaria, Belgium and even Scotland, is just 5-4-0 with only 4 goals condeded by the home side, showing that caution does rule in qualification matches.
England's road games have gone "Under 2.5 Goals" in 7 of the last 10 games, and two of those OVERS were 3-0 wins over Estonia and Andorra which does not seem appropriate here.
England look to be at full strength at the back, and as long as they can avoid any Paul Robinson style goalkeeping howlers then they may be able to add to all those recent clean sheets.
THE VERDICT
The "value" result bet for this game is either CROATIA or the DRAW - and I suspect that readers will bet depending on how they already felt about this game before reading the preview.
Both of those bets are mathematically sound - and only the 3.20 - 3.30 on England winning seems like a poor value punt.
However, probably the best way to play this game is to simply take the low goals bet.
The Pick :
Croatia 0-0 England
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll go for UNDER 2.5 GOALS here. Best price is 1.61 @ Globet Sports who are a solid European bookmaker.If you're really looking for a results tip - then I'd play the DRAW as the likely result.
